thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Mar 3, 2021 15:24:53 GMT -5
Short of winning the BET, is there any other path to making the field of 68 this year? For Georgetown - no. Beat Uconn and make the Big East tourney final and they'd be squarely on the bubble. That would be 8-2 in last 10 (assuming we didn't sneak into 5 seed) with losses to Uconn and whomever they lost to in Finals.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 3, 2021 16:06:01 GMT -5
Beat Uconn and make the Big East tourney final and they'd be squarely on the bubble. That would be 8-2 in last 10 (assuming we didn't sneak into 5 seed) with losses to Uconn and whomever they lost to in Finals. Yes, it's conceivable. If that happened, we'd finish at 13-12. At best (depending on how the schedule and ratings spin out), our record in Q1 games would be 4-8, Q2: 4-2, and Q3: 4-2. That likely would be pretty comparable to, say, a Seton Hall team that's on the bubble now. That's a pretty good record against Q1+2. The two Q3 losses would hurt, but most teams competing with us likely would have a couple also. Obviously, that would be a pretty tough run in terms of just winning those games. Our overall record would hurt us (although maybe not as much as usual since we didn't get to play all the creampuffs...so it's sort of the equivalent to an 18-12 season). But we'd likely also need some help elsewhere in terms of results in other conferences. UMBC and Navy winning their leagues would help. As it turned out, we've played a pretty good schedule overall.
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Mar 3, 2021 16:09:11 GMT -5
Beat Uconn and make the Big East tourney final and they'd be squarely on the bubble. That would be 8-2 in last 10 (assuming we didn't sneak into 5 seed) with losses to Uconn and whomever they lost to in Finals. Yes, it's conceivable. If that happened, we'd finish at 13-12. At best (depending on how the schedule and ratings spin out), our record in Q1 games would be 4-8, Q2: 4-2, and Q3: 4-2. That likely would be pretty comparable to, say, a Seton Hall team that's on the bubble now. That's a pretty good record against Q1+2. The two Q3 losses would hurt, but most teams competing with us likely would have a couple also. Obviously, that would be a pretty tough run in terms of just winning those games. Our overall record would hurt us (although maybe not as much as usual since we didn't get to play all the creampuffs...so it's sort of the equivalent to an 18-12 season). But we'd likely also need some help elsewhere in terms of results in other conferences. UMBC and Navy winning their leagues would help. As it turned out, we've played a pretty good schedule overall. 9th toughest OOC in the country I believe.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2021 16:15:53 GMT -5
Beat Uconn and make the Big East tourney final and they'd be squarely on the bubble. That would be 8-2 in last 10 (assuming we didn't sneak into 5 seed) with losses to Uconn and whomever they lost to in Finals. Yes, it's conceivable. If that happened, we'd finish at 13-12. At best (depending on how the schedule and ratings spin out), our record in Q1 games would be 4-8, Q2: 4-2, and Q3: 4-2. That likely would be pretty comparable to, say, a Seton Hall team that's on the bubble now. That's a pretty good record against Q1+2. The two Q3 losses would hurt, but most teams competing with us likely would have a couple also. Obviously, that would be a pretty tough run in terms of just winning those games. Our overall record would hurt us (although maybe not as much as usual since we didn't get to play all the creampuffs...so it's sort of the equivalent to an 18-12 season). But we'd likely also need some help elsewhere in terms of results in other conferences. UMBC and Navy winning their leagues would help. As it turned out, we've played a pretty good schedule overall. We played a great schedule. Current SOS is 9, NCSOS is 8. Would be hard pressed to find another bubble team that played as hard of a schedule.
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hoya73
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Post by hoya73 on Mar 3, 2021 16:34:08 GMT -5
Part of which is that we also lost games (to covid shutdown) against the bottom teams in the BE, not, excepting Xavier, the top teams. Played or will, come Saturday, 2 each against Nova, Creighton, Seton Hall, UConn. I think our in-conference schedule was among the hardest of any team in any conference.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 3, 2021 16:38:18 GMT -5
Short of winning the BET, is there any other path to making the field of 68 this year? COVID outbreaks at all other major and mid-major conference tournaments.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 3, 2021 16:52:11 GMT -5
Interestingly, we’ve also played the toughest Bid East schedule of any team to date from a win/loss perspective. Only playing DePaul and Marquette once each did the trick. Were we to beat Uconn this weekend and get to the BET finals and on the way beat Nova....it would get interesting.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2021 17:12:39 GMT -5
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 3, 2021 18:47:05 GMT -5
How does the whole NCAA substitute thing work. I'm under the impression that if the conference auto bid comes down with COVID that the conference gets to name the replacement team. Is that true. That would be another way to sneak us in if we can convince the conference to give us the bid instead of say St. John's if someone comes down with COVID on whomever wins the BET.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 20:44:59 GMT -5
Man if St John's loses tonight, we could slide one spot tonight up to number 7. If Providence loses to Villanova and we win against UConn over the weekend, we can slide up to the 6 spot. If Xavier loses this weekend and everything else that I said previously can hold, we can be the number 5 team going into the BE tournament!!!!!
If we don't get to the fifth spot but we get to the sixth spot, we face DePaul in the first round. If we get to the seventh spot, we will most likely face Marquette in the first round. Whatever we do, we don't want to be at the eight spot cause then we will have to face our nemesis in Villanova (in the second round) should we get by in the first round which we have a very hard time defeating.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 3, 2021 20:56:33 GMT -5
Short of winning the BET, is there any other path to making the field of 68 this year? I guess if enough teams get COVID and have to drop out of the tournament then it's possible.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 3, 2021 21:01:30 GMT -5
Man if St John's loses tonight, we could slide one spot tonight up to number 7. If Providence loses to Villanova and we win against UConn over the weekend, we can slide up to the 6 spot. If Xavier loses this weekend and everything else that I said previously can hold, we can be the number 5 team going into the BE tournament!!!!! If we don't get to the fifth spot but we get to the sixth spot, we face DePaul in the first round. If we get to the seventh spot, we will most likely face Marquette in the first round. Whatever we do, we don't want to be at the eight spot cause then we will have to face our nemesis in Villanova (in the second round) should we get by in the first round which we have a very hard time defeating. I just want to get out of Villanova's side of the bracket. If Providence loses to St Johns and Villanova then I think we slide up to #7 and get on the "good" side of the bracket.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2021 21:05:25 GMT -5
With UConn defeating SHU and SJU about to finish off Providence, here are the Hoyas' BET seeding scenarios by my quick math:
5th: W at UConn + Xavier loss at Marquette + SJU loss vs. SHU 6th: W at UConn + either Xavier loss at Marquette OR SJU loss vs. SHU 7th: W at UConn + Xavier win at Marquette + SJU win vs. SHU
7th: L at UConn + Prov loss vs. Nova + Butler loss at Creighton 8th: L at UConn + Prov win vs. Nova OR Butler win at Creighton 9th: L at UConn + Prov win vs. Nova + Butler win at Creighton
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 3, 2021 21:09:10 GMT -5
With UConn defeating SHU and SJU about to finish off Providence, here are the Hoyas' BET seeding scenarios by my quick math: 5th: W at UConn + Xavier loss at Marquette + SJU loss vs. SHU 6th: W at UConn + either Xavier loss at Marquette OR SJU loss vs. SHU 7th: W at UConn + Xavier win at Marquette + SJU win vs. SHU 7th: L at UConn + Prov loss vs. Nova + Butler loss at Creighton 8th: L at UConn + Prov win vs. Nova OR Butler win at Creighton 9th: L at UConn + Prov win vs. Nova + Butler win at Creighton I think 7th is highly possible now. (and getting out of Nova's side of the bracket) It looks like regardless of the UConn outcome it would come down to Creighton beating Butler.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 21:12:13 GMT -5
Short of winning the BET, is there any other path to making the field of 68 this year? I guess if enough teams get COVID and have to drop out of the tournament then it's possible. LOL!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 21:14:24 GMT -5
Man if St John's loses tonight, we could slide one spot tonight up to number 7. If Providence loses to Villanova and we win against UConn over the weekend, we can slide up to the 6 spot. If Xavier loses this weekend and everything else that I said previously can hold, we can be the number 5 team going into the BE tournament!!!!! If we don't get to the fifth spot but we get to the sixth spot, we face DePaul in the first round. If we get to the seventh spot, we will most likely face Marquette in the first round. Whatever we do, we don't want to be at the eight spot cause then we will have to face our nemesis in Villanova (in the second round) should we get by in the first round which we have a very hard time defeating. I just want to get out of Villanova's side of the bracket. If Providence loses to St Johns and Villanova then I think we slide up to #7 and get on the "good" side of the bracket. No, I think we need Providence to defeat St John's and lose to Villanova over the weekend for our path to the fifth spot. St John's plays Seton Hall over the weekend. We slide up to number 7 tonight yeah if Providence loses but we wouldn't have a chance at the fifth spot if St John's wins tonight or at least it will make it harder to get to number 5.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2021 21:18:00 GMT -5
I just want to get out of Villanova's side of the bracket. If Providence loses to St Johns and Villanova then I think we slide up to #7 and get on the "good" side of the bracket. No, I think we need Providence to defeat St John's and lose to Villanova over the weekend. St John's plays Seton Hall over the weekend. Right now if PC loses to Nova we can finish no worse than 7th (and assuming Butler loses to Creighton).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 21:20:39 GMT -5
I just want to get out of Villanova's side of the bracket. If Providence loses to St Johns and Villanova then I think we slide up to #7 and get on the "good" side of the bracket. No, I think we need Providence to defeat St John's and lose to Villanova over the weekend for our path to the fifth spot. St John's plays Seton Hall over the weekend. We slide up to number 7 tonight yeah if Providence loses but we wouldn't have a chance at the fifth spot if St John's wins tonight or at least it will make it harder to get to number 5. Uhhhp the game is over, nevermind my analysis. St John's won. Oh boy!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 21:21:25 GMT -5
No, I think we need Providence to defeat St John's and lose to Villanova over the weekend. St John's plays Seton Hall over the weekend. Right now if PC loses to Nova we can finish no worse than 7th (and assuming Butler loses to Creighton). Throw my stuff out the window! Shoooooot!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 21:24:26 GMT -5
I just looked at the standings on ESPN site and they have moved us to number 7 (as a result of Providence's loss to St John's) which puts us out of the same field as Villanova (wheeew!) and would have us facing Marquette if things were to stay the same.
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