Turnovers, 3-Point Shooting, and FTs

[Ranch Dressing]

Last year, I tracked and periodically updated what I believed to be 2 important team statistics, turnovers and 3-point shooting. At the end of the conference season, the Hoyas had shown nice improvement in 3-point shooting offense and defense, ending up in the top half of the league in both categories. On the other hand, turnovers continued to be a problem with a near +2 turnover differential of 12.8 vs. 11 in 18 regular season conference games.

Now that we are through 6 games, I will start tracking the same statistics again this year, and will add a third. As has been discussed on the board, one of the team's perceived strengths is our ability to draw fouls at a high rate and also convert at the line by shooting a high percentage. Drawing fouls and hitting free throws can cover up a lot of other problems and can put the opponent at a lineup disadvantage if key players are in early foul trouble.

So, after 6 games, this is how we sit in all 3 categories:

Turnovers

Hoyas: 17/game
Opponents: 16.3/game
Differential: +0.7

3-Point Shooting

Hoyas: 34-101, 33.7%
Opponents: 55-141, 39%
3PFGM/Game Differential: -3.5
3PFG% Differential: -5.3%

FTs

Hoyas: 120-159, 75.5%
Opponents: 82-110, 74.5%
FTM/Game Differential: +6.3
FT% Differential: +1.0%

In short, 17 turnovers/game is abysmal and needs obvious work. The team's 3-Point shooting offense and defense has taken a big step backward so far this year. Finally, FTs have been a huge positive for the Hoyas so far both on attempts and % conversion.

[njhoya78]

I'm not sure that the percentages on three-point shooting and free throws mean a whole lot. I'm more concerned with the raw numbers on three-point shots made and attempted; if we fail to defend the three (as we did in the first four games; the games in NYC were better), we will struggle. As for turnovers...it's part of being a Hoya; overcoming sloppy play has been a trademark of GU basketball going back to Big John on the bench.

[DanMcQ]

The 24 turnovers against Dook is not entirely sloppiness: those refs called 10 offensive fouls on the Hoyas, all of which count as a TO but most of which were debatable as fouls.

[Ranch Dressing]

Updated for 7 games with Akinjo and 3 games without:

First 7 games with Akinjo:

Turnovers

Hoyas: 17.3/game
Opponents: 16.3/game
Differential: +1.0

3-Point Shooting

Hoyas: 39-117, 33.3%
Opponents: 62-166, 37.3%
3PFGM/Game Differential: -3.3
3PFG% Differential: -4.0%

FTs

Hoyas: 134-179, 74.9%
Opponents: 92-123, 74.8%
FTM/Game Differential: +6.0
FT% Differential: +0.1%

Last 3 games without Akinjo:

Turnovers

Hoyas: 13.3/game
Opponents: 12.3/game
Differential: +1.0

3-Point Shooting

Hoyas: 34-74, 45.9%
Opponents: 34-91, 37.4%
3PFGM/Game Differential: 0.0
3PFG% Differential: +8.5%

FTs

Hoyas: 47-55, 85.5%
Opponents: 41-55, 74.5%
FTM/Game Differential: +2.0
FT% Differential: +11.0%

When comparing pre- and post-Akinjo team statistics in these categories, team turnovers are way down (although we still run a surplus vs. opponent), 3P shooting % has taken a huge (sustainable?) step forward, and FTs continue to be a major strength of the team both in attempts and conversion rate vs. opponent.

[b52legend]

Akinjo was 8-33 from 3 this year. I think you are seeing a better percentage both because those shots are being redistributed to better 3 point shooters and because the offense is creating more good 3 point shots generally. The difference may be exaggerated some because of our hot shooting, but I don’t think the percentage in the first 7 games is indicative of what this team’s average will be.

[b52legend]

Dec 16, 2019 13:19:07 GMT -5 b52legend said:

Akinjo was 8-33 from 3 this year. I think you are seeing a better percentage both because those shots are being redistributed to better 3 point shooters and because the offense is creating more good 3 point shots generally. The difference may be exaggerated some because of our hot shooting, but I don’t think the percentage in the first 7 games is indicative of what this team’s average will be.

I would add that not only are we shooting much more efficiently, we are taking many more. The percentage bump alone doesn’t reflect the improvement, as the raw number of threes we have taken has gone way up.

[seaweed]

Dec 16, 2019 13:20:58 GMT -5 b52legend said:

Dec 16, 2019 13:19:07 GMT -5 b52legend said:

Akinjo was 8-33 from 3 this year. I think you are seeing a better percentage both because those shots are being redistributed to better 3 point shooters and because the offense is creating more good 3 point shots generally. The difference may be exaggerated some because of our hot shooting, but I don’t think the percentage in the first 7 games is indicative of what this team’s average will be.

I would add that not only are we shooting much more efficiently, we are taking many more. The percentage bump alone doesn’t reflect the improvement, as the raw number of threes we have taken has gone way up.

We went from taking 16.71/game to taking 24.6/game. Made per game went from 5.5 to 11.3. That's 17.4 more points on under 8 attempts, 2.2 PPP.

[jwp91]

I think I saw that Blair is shooting 50% from deep post-change.

[madgesiq92]

Dec 16, 2019 13:20:58 GMT -5 b52legend said:

Dec 16, 2019 13:19:07 GMT -5 b52legend said:

Akinjo was 8-33 from 3 this year. I think you are seeing a better percentage both because those shots are being redistributed to better 3 point shooters and because the offense is creating more good 3 point shots generally. The difference may be exaggerated some because of our hot shooting, but I don’t think the percentage in the first 7 games is indicative of what this team’s average will be.

I would add that not only are we shooting much more efficiently, we are taking many more. The percentage bump alone doesn’t reflect the improvement, as the raw number of threes we have taken has gone way up.

Can't shoot when you're (or your PG is) dribbling.

[rhw485]

Might be more for Hoya Analytics tab, but wondering about the 3pt % on off the dribble 3s vs. catch and shoot 3s. Averages on the former should be much higher and those are the shots we're generating in the offense with ball movement. That's how you take more with a higher % pretty easily.

[bostonfan]

Dec 16, 2019 14:21:50 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

I think I saw that Blair is shooting 50% from deep post-change.

Blair certainly has seemed to be playing with more confidence in the last three games and his shooting percentage from deep has been impressive. He takes some deep threes sometimes, and I am Ok with those from him as long as he is open. He, and Mac to some degree, seem to make a few shots and then feel they need to take a bad/contested/really deep heat check type of shot. Those type of shots, especially when they are deep threes, can really be momentum killers because they often end up in long rebounds and transition hoops for the other team.

I am all for finding the hot shooter and feeding him the ball, but limiting the bad shots is going be a huge factor as the Hoyas play close games where every possession is going to matter. The team has shown in the last three games that if they make the extra pass and keep the ball moving they will find a good shot.

[jwp91]

Dec 16, 2019 14:55:32 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

Might be more for Hoya Analytics tab, but wondering about the 3pt % on off the dribble 3s vs. catch and shoot 3s. Averages on the former should be much higher and those are the shots we're generating in the offense with ball movement. That's how you take more with a higher % pretty easily.

I don't see data that breaks down 3 point shots in that way. I see jump shots off the dribble in which we are excellent (90th percentile). I see 'long jump shots (3 pointers) for which we are 90th percentile.

The one shot type in which we are struggling is less than 4 seconds on the shot clock in which we are in the 4th percentile.