seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
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Post by seaweed on Jan 24, 2019 10:38:56 GMT -5
There was a telling statement from Patrick's post-game interview when he was asked why, given his defensive pedigree, his team's defense two years in is still shaky. He essentially said any successful defensive scheme need the horses, that is, players who can play lock-down defense. This team doesn't have those horses. That tells me that it will have to win games primarily on the offensive end. It has the offense to do it, but that is always going to be a crap shoot, because in order to win the team will almost always have to rely on making the last shot, instead of the last stop. That the last the shot, according to the team's offensive strategy, is to be taken by the open player and not the best player makes it more of a crap shoot. None of us understands Patrick's rotations or has any idea how he is setting player expectations with regard to playing time. We just don't know. We can speculate that the patterns must be frustrating to the kids, but we cannot be sure that he has not set expectations consistent with how he is subbing, i.e. if you don't hustle on D, expect to get benched. To me, from jump it seemed like Pat was seeking a strong defensive lineup that could get the few stops we needed in that game - help without over-rotating, shut down penetration so the bigs don't get hung out to dry, stop baseline drives, all of the above. As pointed out elsewhere, we don't necessarily have the dogs for that fight and some of our guys, strong as they can be one on one, have not built up team/scheme defensive BBIQs to make the right play consistently. Also, our two "lead guards" are not particularly effective at cutting through screens and defending taller offensive players, though each has other good defensive skills. Our bigs are also limited - nothing more frustrating that watching Jessie jog down the court after losing the ball at the top of the key, without any real ambition, realistic or not, to stop the breakaway. Try as he might, Pat was not able to get a lineup out there that could consistently shut down the Bluejays, though we slowed them down many times only to get beat on broken plays and offensive rebounds. We will have to develop a team defensive skill set up to BEast grade - it is teachable, whether you can "make" a Gene Smith or not - and develop some reliable D schemes if we are to work our way out of the BEast cellar. On Monday night at least, no amount of coaching or scheming or cajoling or yelling was going to get our guys to play effective team D. Bear in mind, many have never done it. An above average defender in Gate City, Oakland or NY high school programs is NOT automatically even a viable defender in the BEast, much less a great team defender. If you throw some personality conflicts in there - whether it be "I want mine" or "I just don't like that guy" or god forbid "I'm outta here next year anyway" - the challenge of building a consistent and functional D scheme just gets that much harder. But Pat seemed to be trying and got a reasonable degree of success - we held the highest scoring/3pt% team in the league to roughly their averages instead of getting blown out, we forced them to get lucky to win and we got stops, even at crunch time. Unfortunately, by then, the defensive effort had taken our offensive legs away. Also, we had fouled/gotten called for fouls at an insane clip in the second half of the second half, which was dispiriting to guys who seemed baffled by many of the calls and were pretty evidently not getting the same whistles on their end (Pat needs to address the inconsistent whistles, either in game or at the league office, cause that ain't right). So we, collectively, let exhaustion and frustration get the better of us. If there is anybody who knows how to fix that problem, it is our head coach. He has made clear that he wants to run a high energy/pace offense, and we are doing pretty well in that regard despite limitations, but he also has expressed frustration that our dogs aren't instinctively very canine about their D. That is what has to change, with the current kennel-mates or a fresh set of puppies.
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 24, 2019 11:08:57 GMT -5
SJU has to be one of the biggest disappointments in the league so far and I am not giving in to the thinking this game cannot be won. It is SJU, not Nova. Does anyone think Pat will be outcoached in this one? Pat is coming back home to MSG, I think he will have the team ready to play. Sure, it could go sideways if Ponds and/or Heron are on fire, but nothing about this game screams we have no chance. If we play our typical type of game, I cannot think of another BE team I would want to play a close game against.
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EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,961
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Post by EtomicB on Jan 24, 2019 11:10:32 GMT -5
There was a telling statement from Patrick's post-game interview when he was asked why, given his defensive pedigree, his team's defense two years in is still shaky. He essentially said any successful defensive scheme need the horses, that is, players who can play lock-down defense. This team doesn't have those horses. That tells me that it will have to win games primarily on the offensive end. It has the offense to do it, but that is always going to be a crap shoot, because in order to win the team will almost always have to rely on making the last shot, instead of the last stop. That the last the shot, according to the team's offensive strategy, is to be taken by the open player and not the best player makes it more of a crap shoot. None of us understands Patrick's rotations or has any idea how he is setting player expectations with regard to playing time. We just don't know. We can speculate that the patterns must be frustrating to the kids, but we cannot be sure that he has not set expectations consistent with how he is subbing, i.e. if you don't hustle on D, expect to get benched. To me, from jump it seemed like Pat was seeking a strong defensive lineup that could get the few stops we needed in that game - help without over-rotating, shut down penetration so the bigs don't get hung out to dry, stop baseline drives, all of the above. As pointed out elsewhere, we don't necessarily have the dogs for that fight and some of our guys, strong as they can be one on one, have not built up team/scheme defensive BBIQs to make the right play consistently. Also, our two "lead guards" are not particularly effective at cutting through screens and defending taller offensive players, though each has other good defensive skills. Our bigs are also limited - nothing more frustrating that watching Jessie jog down the court after losing the ball at the top of the key, without any real ambition, realistic or not, to stop the breakaway. Try as he might, Pat was not able to get a lineup out there that could consistently shut down the Bluejays, though we slowed them down many times only to get beat on broken plays and offensive rebounds. We will have to develop a team defensive skill set up to BEast grade - it is teachable, whether you can "make" a Gene Smith or not - and develop some reliable D schemes if we are to work our way out of the BEast cellar. On Monday night at least, no amount of coaching or scheming or cajoling or yelling was going to get our guys to play effective team D. Bear in mind, many have never done it. An above average defender in Gate City, Oakland or NY high school programs is NOT automatically even a viable defender in the BEast, much less a great team defender. If you throw some personality conflicts in there - whether it be "I want mine" or "I just don't like that guy" or god forbid "I'm outta here next year anyway" - the challenge of building a consistent and functional D scheme just gets that much harder. But Pat seemed to be trying and got a reasonable degree of success - we held the highest scoring/3pt% team in the league to roughly their averages instead of getting blown out, we forced them to get lucky to win and we got stops, even at crunch time. Unfortunately, by then, the defensive effort had taken our offensive legs away. Also, we had fouled/gotten called for fouls at an insane clip in the second half of the second half, which was dispiriting to guys who seemed baffled by many of the calls and were pretty evidently not getting the same whistles on their end (Pat needs to address the inconsistent whistles, either in game or at the league office, cause that ain't right). So we, collectively, let exhaustion and frustration get the better of us. If there is anybody who knows how to fix that problem, it is our head coach. He has made clear that he wants to run a high energy/pace offense, and we are doing pretty well in that regard despite limitations, but he also has expressed frustration that our dogs aren't instinctively very canine about their D. That is what has to change, with the current kennel-mates or a fresh set of puppies. Hard for me to see how the D can be better with LeBlanc on the bench, he has made more hustle plays than any player this season... That was a terrible error in judgment by the staff to play Josh so little in the 2nd half...
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 24, 2019 11:13:15 GMT -5
This year's teams ranked on KenPom: 27, 35, 40, 48, 53, 58, 60, 73, 101, 136. Last year's teams ranked on KenPom: 1, 15, 20, 26, 30, 53, 63, 74, 94, 99. The regression is pretty obvious if you just look at the numbers. Last year was a much stronger league. The way I look at it, the BE is probably a 3 bid league and will likely be seeded to be totally out by the Sweet 16. That is not a strong conference, I don't care how deep it goes. I still think Nova is the best team, and they are no where close to where they have been the last 5 years. I do think that Nova and MU can be Sweet 16 teams, but it is hard to justify that with numbers.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
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Post by seaweed on Jan 24, 2019 12:16:23 GMT -5
Hard for me to see how the D can be better with LeBlanc on the bench, he has made more hustle plays than any player this season... That was a terrible error in judgment by the staff to play Josh so little in the 2nd half... He has also fallen for literally EVERY shot fake thrown his way this year. He is more guilty of over-rotating and not "staying home" than anyone on the team. And he gets pushed around on the blocks. Don't get me wrong, I love his energy and intensity as much as anyone, but any notion that he is a defensive juggernaut is over-enthusiasm.
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EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,961
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Post by EtomicB on Jan 24, 2019 12:36:19 GMT -5
Hard for me to see how the D can be better with LeBlanc on the bench, he has made more hustle plays than any player this season... That was a terrible error in judgment by the staff to play Josh so little in the 2nd half... He has also fallen for literally EVERY shot fake thrown his way this year. He is more guilty of over-rotating and not "staying home" than anyone on the team. And he gets pushed around on the blocks. Don't get me wrong, I love his energy and intensity as much as anyone, but any notion that he is a defensive juggernaut is over-enthusiasm. Not a defensive juggernaut but still the best defensive player on the team and arguably the best rebounder... Offensively he's the 2nd best front court option on the team by a wide margin... As I posted previously, it was a terrible error in judgment to play him so little in the 2nd half last game...
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2019 12:42:12 GMT -5
He has also fallen for literally EVERY shot fake thrown his way this year. He is more guilty of over-rotating and not "staying home" than anyone on the team. And he gets pushed around on the blocks. Don't get me wrong, I love his energy and intensity as much as anyone, but any notion that he is a defensive juggernaut is over-enthusiasm. Relative to the rest of the team, he's a defensive juggernaut. He's not perfect but he's got a lot better instincts than basically anybody else on the roster. He's also best at getting steals and blocking shots. He's also our best rebounder on both sides of the ball. As EtomicB said, he should have played more at the end of the Creighton game. Again, this isn't what's ideal but what's best. Mourning also gets pushed around on the blocks and falls for any tricky post moves. So even if neither of them are great defending bigger guys, LeBlanc is still the better choice.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
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Post by seaweed on Jan 24, 2019 13:14:16 GMT -5
OK, I really don't want to get into this, but NO, he is not our best defender and NO, he is not our second best offensive player. Nor is he our best rebounder. Josh is great, but don't fall for the shiny new object phenomenon. Pickett is fourth in the league in blocks, Jesse is fifth. Jesse is our best defensive rebounder, second in the league, and while Josh's 5th is awesome, he is not "better" than Jesse. Heck, Kaleb has been more effective offensively the last couple of games than Josh, whose production has trailed off a bunch since BEast play began. He is young, undersized and lacks the 'big picture' skills of a guy like Kaleb or even Trey who knows when to stay put, when to challenge and when to rotate (even if Trey doesn't know how to NOT get called for a foul). Josh has 4 blocks in BEast play and, while we all believe in him and look forward to his progress (provided he is not the subject of the B&G Tranfer Bombshell yesterday), but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I wanted him on the court v CU (not as bad as I wanted Mac out there, but I agree the rotation was not ideal), don't get me wrong, but let's maintain a sense of perspective here.
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EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by EtomicB on Jan 24, 2019 14:03:20 GMT -5
OK, I really don't want to get into this, but NO, he is not our best defender and NO, he is not our second best offensive player. Nor is he our best rebounder. Josh is great, but don't fall for the shiny new object phenomenon. Pickett is fourth in the league in blocks, Jesse is fifth. Jesse is our best defensive rebounder, second in the league, and while Josh's 5th is awesome, he is not "better" than Jesse. Heck, Kaleb has been more effective offensively the last couple of games than Josh, whose production has trailed off a bunch since BEast play began. He is young, undersized and lacks the 'big picture' skills of a guy like Kaleb or even Trey who knows when to stay put, when to challenge and when to rotate (even if Trey doesn't know how to NOT get called for a foul). Josh has 4 blocks in BEast play and, while we all believe in him and look forward to his progress (provided he is not the subject of the B&G Tranfer Bombshell yesterday), but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I wanted him on the court v CU (not as bad as I wanted Mac out there, but I agree the rotation was not ideal), don't get me wrong, but let's maintain a sense of perspective here. It's not about a shiny new object, Josh even with all of his flaws is a better player than Mourning or Kaleb imho... Check the per 40 numbers rebounding wise in conference, Govan pulls down 11.0, Josh gets 9.9... LeBlanc is easily the 2nd best frontcourt option on the team, he should have played more against CU... I get that your intent is not to bash Josh but to give PE the benefit of the doubt about his subs last game but to me not playing A healthy Josh was a mistake..
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2019 17:38:21 GMT -5
OK, I really don't want to get into this, but NO, he is not our best defender and NO, he is not our second best offensive player. Nor is he our best rebounder. Josh is great, but don't fall for the shiny new object phenomenon. Pickett is fourth in the league in blocks, Jesse is fifth. Jesse is our best defensive rebounder, second in the league, and while Josh's 5th is awesome, he is not "better" than Jesse. Heck, Kaleb has been more effective offensively the last couple of games than Josh, whose production has trailed off a bunch since BEast play began. He is young, undersized and lacks the 'big picture' skills of a guy like Kaleb or even Trey who knows when to stay put, when to challenge and when to rotate (even if Trey doesn't know how to NOT get called for a foul). Josh has 4 blocks in BEast play and, while we all believe in him and look forward to his progress (provided he is not the subject of the B&G Tranfer Bombshell yesterday), but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I wanted him on the court v CU (not as bad as I wanted Mac out there, but I agree the rotation was not ideal), don't get me wrong, but let's maintain a sense of perspective here. As EtomicB noted, you're not relying on per/40 minute or tempo-free stats, which don't account for different amounts of minutes played, etc. If you look at rebound rates, it's pretty clear. Josh is easily the best offensive rebounder on this team, and it's not even particularly close: Govan: Defensive rebound rate: 20.1; Offensive rebound rate: 7.1 LeBlanc: Defensive rebound rate: 21.1; Offensive rebound rate: 13.5 Kaleb: Defensive rebound rate: 13.8; Offensive rebound rate: 8.5 Again: Govan: Block %: 4.1, Steal %: 1.5 LeBlanc: Block %: 4.3, Steal %: 2.5 Kaleb: Block %: 1.6, Steal %: 1.9 If you think that Kaleb or Mourning are better options then Josh, then we see talent very differently. Trey Mourning is terrible. He doesn't "know when to stay put, when to challenge and when to rotate." Mourning frequently gets burned on offense, he turns it over a ton (yep, LeBlanc is better on that too), and he takes awful offensive shots. I think most people on HoyaTalk agree with that, but certain people can't get past his Mourning name to realize he really offers very little beyond what a walk on would offer (and hey, he was originally a walk on, how about that!). This narrative that a few people are trying to build of Josh LeBlanc being a poor offensive player is getting absurd. Sure, Govan is a better offensive player. And LeBlanc isn't (yet), the type of guy you specifically run plays for. But, LeBlanc is the MOST EFFICIENT player on the team. That's right. He's more efficient even than Govan, and unlike other players, this has not suffered during conference play. (For the record, I am not saying he's better than Govan; clearly Govan is better, I am just trying to show why it's nonsensical to say LeBlanc offers nothing on offense). Now, efficiency isn't everything. Obviously, Govan is a much more versatile player, and the guards give us a lot more options than LeBlanc. So, I am not saying LeBlanc is the solution in every respect, but the kid can play extremely effectively on offense AND he brings it defensively too. The stats bear this out. He may be new, but he's really, really good. That's why he should play.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,440
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Post by lichoya68 on Jan 25, 2019 8:36:33 GMT -5
ok OPPORTUNITY VS JOHNNIES TO RISE UP there are EIGHT TEAMS TIED FOR THIRD PLACE IN THE LOSS COLUMN this is a huge chance to WRIGHT the ship WRIGHT NOW. must win this is HUGE and critical tough UP THERE with PONDS yup BUT if they win just watch out. Youngins are coming need to be QUICK but DONT HURRY as per coach john wooden and remember its AT THE GARDEN and its our second home in history so REMEMBER HISTORY HOYAS AND MAKE HISTORY SUNDAY BIG GAME AND ITS ALMOST FEBRUARY GO HOYAS
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tashoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by tashoya on Jan 26, 2019 0:24:17 GMT -5
I thought last game was a must win and I still think that's true. This one is a "what are you made of" game. It really feels like a turning point game, one way or the other, for this team that may be about more than just this season.
If one looks at the record as it stands, this team has earned the low expectations of the talking heads coming into the year. I still don't think they're that team but they seem determined to show me that I'm wrong. I'm hoping they're Editeded off at their result right now.
For me, I'm at the point where I'm happy with the growth of many of the guys but I'm also acutely aware that we have too many talented players to not win some of these games. Gut check time. Let's see what this group has. It gets late very early.
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calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by calhoya on Jan 26, 2019 8:08:39 GMT -5
I do not buy into the simple explanations for failure--not enough talent, too young, poor coaching decisions, selfish undisciplined play or inability to defend. I think it is the lack of a leader who can take the team and will it to win when the inevitable dry spells occur. Who is that guy?
This team is in almost every game they play. They are often in control for large stretches of the game, even playing acceptable defense against quality opponents. You cannot accomplish that level of play without talent or with an incompetent coach. Yet, when things go wrong, they just spiral out of control, seemingly compounded by bad decisions on the court and on the bench. Yes, it is possible in almost every loss to single out specific moments like a bad shot, selfish play , ignoring the call from the bench, careless turnovers, poor pass, failure to make the right substitution or to call a timeout but that is too easy. Every team (and every coach) makes critical mistakes in a game. Has there been any game this year--unlike last season---in which the opponent simply had too much talent for the Hoyas to compete.
The losses and the collapses at the end of these games are beginning to steamroll. Players and fans expect to lose these games. My son and brother-in-law were shocked at the negativity in the stands throughout the last few games, including the Providence win. Is there a leader on this team?
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Jan 26, 2019 8:42:34 GMT -5
Next two weekends on national tv against our biggest BE rivals. Really think winning at least one of the two games is important for the perception of the program (and help recruiting) and to show PE is righting the ship. Regardless of how the season winds up, one of these games is prime for a statement game, setting up next year (a la SJ over Duke last year), something we’ve lacked in recent years.
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Hoyaholic
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by Hoyaholic on Jan 26, 2019 12:02:33 GMT -5
Not quite national TV. Fox in Los Angeles is opting for infomercials.
Edit - Thought the game was today!
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Jan 26, 2019 12:50:09 GMT -5
I already have my TV set to tape the game. The last game I saw and taped was vs SJU also. So please let this game have a better result.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,352
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Post by daveg023 on Jan 26, 2019 13:11:43 GMT -5
Not quite national TV. Fox in Los Angeles is opting for infomercials. Edit - Thought the game was today! Ha I did too until like 10 am this morning.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2019 13:41:30 GMT -5
Hey!
I'm gonna head over to MSG tomorrow but don't have tickets yet. Looking for 2.
Already posted in tickets thread, but not sure if anybody checks that.
Thanks.
Also - hope Jessie goes off for 30 in his last regular season NYC game.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Jan 26, 2019 15:56:35 GMT -5
Hey! I'm gonna head over to MSG tomorrow but don't have tickets yet. Looking for 2. Already posted in tickets thread, but not sure if anybody checks that. Thanks. Also - hope Jessie goes off for 30 in his last regular season NYC game. I’m like 70/30 if I’m gonna make it there tmo. Hope so though AND to see a win.
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Post by FHillsNYHoya on Jan 26, 2019 16:44:09 GMT -5
I will be there. Let's go.
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