Big East Buy/Sell/Hold

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

With all of the changes in the Big East in terms of players returning or not returning and recruits coming in I thought that I would just go through a quick game of buy, sell, and hold with each team. In each case I am buying, selling, or holding on each team contending for the BE title.

Cincy - SELL: The Bearcats loose 4 seniors off of last years' squad (Lucas, Maxiel, Meeker, and Williams). There is also the unfortunate situation with recruit Tyree Evans who has been accused of statutory rape for Bob Huggins. In addition, Vincent Banks, who was academically ineligible last year has decided to leave the club. This comdined with the dismisall of Roy Bright, does not mean that Cincy does not have a chance of being a contender, but the program in general looks to be in trouble as the University is not even willing to talk about Huggins' contract. IMO Cincy simply has too many obstacles to overcome as a program right now for it to compete on a high level next year.

UCONN - HOLD - Josh Boone and Rudy Gay are back, Charlie Villenueva is gone. Unless Bynoum (who is a freshman) or role players from last year's team like Denham Brown can step up and fill in for Villenueva's presence, scoring, rebounds, and blocks this team will not be as tough as last year's version. On the whole the team is younger and not as talented. They can still contend IMO but it remains to be seen if the difference from last year to this year is felt in terms of W's and L's.

Depaul - SELL - New head coach Jerry Wainwright comes from Richmond to the DePaul Blue Demons. This team lost three players to graduation - Quemont Greer, Drake Denier, and LeVar Seals - these three players were the go to options for the team and it remains to be seen who will step up (no joke - this team is very short) and work in the new coach's system. There are too many variables here to foresee a BE contender.

Georgetown - BUY and HOLD LONG-TERM - If you haven't figured out my reasons for optimism here, please see the rest of the board - we return EVERYONE and add a ton of depth in our incoming freshman class - there are questions in depth at 4 and 5 if we have to go tall - but other than that the team looks very solid to contend.

Louisville - SELL - Ofcourse this will not be the same team that made it to the final four last season - however I don't think we really know where the bottom is for this team next year as it reloads. The problems are that expectations of fans and boosters are high and that there has been an exodus of talent from the program with Ellis Myles, Larry O'Bannon, Otis George, and Francisco Garcia. In addition Assistant Head Coach Scott Davenport - who had been on staff for 9 years left the program in the off-season. Padgett and Dean will need to shoulder almost all of the load as they will not recognize anyone else left from the starting roation and will be facing a higher quality of competition night in and night out in the BE. This team will not be bad - but it won't be the Louisville of last year.

Marquette - HOLD to BUY - Marquette had the 6th best recruiting class in the country according to hoopscoop. However, they lose three senior contributors. This mixed picture is one of a team in transition - it remains to be seen how the recruits will pan out in BE Play, but they could surprise, expecially if teams do not give them respect.

Notre Dame - SELL - Chris Thomas is a huge loss for this team. He was the first ever Mr. Basketball in Indiana to go to ND and it showed. His experience at the point will be sorely lacking next year. Latimore is also not taking his 5th year of eligibility. Torin Francis is returning from the draft, but the loss of Thomas will be aparent.

Pitt - SELL LONGTERM - The new coaching staff is having trouble keeping the winning culture together at Pitt - it is not likely that the loss of Taft and others will be much of a help.

Providence - SELL - Where's Ryan Gomes? Oh right ...

Rutgers - SELL - The tough thing about predicting Rutgers is that the RAC guarantees some wins in conference automatically. The team loses Shields, Glass, and Wiggan and has a ho-hum recruiting class coming in - there is no reason to think that anything will chnge at New Jersey State.

Seton Hall - SELL - JR Moriss is gone and so are John Allen and Andre Sweet - there is no reson to think that this team is on the way up.

St. Johns - SELL - Ocassionally miracles happen. However, I see no angels in St. Johns' outfield.

South Florida - SELL - They don't belong in this basketball conference.

Syracuse - HOLD - They essentially return GMac from last year's five - Forth and Warrick are gone. They still play a gimmick defense and don't leave NY in OOC - which means thhey might be able to get enough wins to contend but the jury is still out.

NOVA - BUY - They return everyone who was productive in the offense last year - the question mark is how Sumter will recover and play after his knee surgery. Should be a big game for GU next season.

WVU - BUY to Hold - Pittsnogel returns. Sally is gone. How this team will play next year when everyone knows who they are remains to be seen - they will need players to step up into the roles vacated by their seniors.

The competition shakes out this way in the BE IMO:

Top tier: UCONN, NOVA, GU, Louisville, WVU
Second Tier: ND, Marquette, Cincy, Cuse
Third Tier: Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John's, Pitt, DePaul, Providence
Fourth Tier: Most High School Basketball Teams
Fifth Tier: South Florida

[JimmyHoya]

Hi, I'm Marcus Williams, the point guard for UConn? Y'know the guy that was suggested to be the MVP of the second half of the BE season last year? I can't imagine my prowess dropping off too much over he off season, but you can't even imagine me at all. Woe is me or you?

Heh.

Anyway, I think UConn will be as tough as usually is next year. They've got no all-americans, but they are a very, very solid group.

I agree with everything else though.

LOL @ the 4th/5th tiers

[hoyalove4ever]

I agree that UCONN will be very tough. Don't forget about guys like Ed Nelson, who hardly played last year. I imagine that they will be top 15 nationally.

Nova could be very good. They will be as good is their chemistry turns out.

Don't count out ND. Thomas was good but he had a fair bit of Braswell in him (solid player but never learned to lead the team like a true PG). They won't be great, but I doubt they will be bad. Their late-season beating of us still stings.

Other than that, things are wide open. We could contend for the league title or we could be stuck in the middle.

[hoyalove4ever]

Also, Cincy always finds a way to contend. I will expect them to do so until I see otherwise.

[YB]

I think BUY St. John's - Norm is a great coach, his recruiting is great like 3's is, and the culture of winning is being established there. Buy them this year for mid-conference finish and buy them long term.

Also, SELL Cuse for this next year only. GMac can't do it himself and the losses of Warrick, Forth and Pace will really hurt this team.

[JohnJacquesLayup]

yb said:

I think BUY St. John's - Norm is a great coach, his recruiting is great like 3's is, and the culture of winning is being established there. Buy them this year for mid-conference finish and buy them long term.

Also, SELL Cuse for this next year only. GMac can't do it himself and the losses of Warrick, Forth and Pace will really hurt this team.

What about BC, Miami, and VaTech? Oh right.

[Eurostar]

Nova and UConn will be projected 1 and 2 in the big east next year and probably be ranked top 10 preseason and maybe even top 5. I say a realistic goal would be to finish 3rd in the big east next year, with anything higher being gravy.

St Johns is a BUY for the next 5-10 years, but i think they experience a sophmore slump and finish near the bottom again next year.

[SFHoya99]

My changes:

UConn - Buy. Gay will become a star this year. Williams is a year older and while Villanueva was tough versus us, he wasn't consistent.
St. John's - Buy. For all the reasons above.
Rutgers - Buy. How could they go down?

[SirSaxa]

yb said:

I think BUY St. John's - Norm is a great coach, his recruiting is great like 3's is, and the culture of winning is being established there. Buy them this year for mid-conference finish and buy them long term.

I agree on BUY SJU as you have stated.

And as for UCONN, what happened to that other freshman PG.. the one who had the brain aneurysm or some medical condition like that? I remember reading that he recovered. Did that mean... to live a normal life, or recovered to get back to his outstanding potential as a PG?

And UCONN has, as usual, more good guys in the pipeline.

[nodak89]

AJ Price

www.uconnhuskies.com/AllStories/MBasketball/2004/11/04/20041104.html

[nychoya3]

I also think Cuse will sadly be better than we expect. So long as they don't hang too much on GMac's neck (he can't handle it) they have a lot of talent on that team that hasn't really been featured. I think they should be okay - top 5.

West Virginia has to be a sell. There's no way they find that magic again. With Fisher and Sally gone, they have no inside presence whatsoever. I think they would be lucky to make the tourney.

Rutgers and Providence will be better, since they couldn't be any worse. Providence always does the opposite of what's expected of them, so they should be tough. And Rutgers does have some talent - certainly more than SHU, for example. I'm buying.

I like SJU and us to make the biggest leaps next year. Of the incoming schools, Cinci and Louisville should be good. But Louisville is a bit overrated, considering they really only have Dean, Palacios, and sorta Padgett as proven players. Cinci is always tough, but who knows which of their players will actually be on the roster by next fall?

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

jimmyhoya said:

Hi, I'm Marcus Williams, the point guard for UConn? Y'know the guy that was suggested to be the MVP of the second half of the BE season last year? I can't imagine my prowess dropping off too much over he off season, but you can't even imagine me at all. Woe is me or you?

Heh.

Anyway, I think UConn will be as tough as usually is next year. They've got no all-americans, but they are a very, very solid group.

I agree with everything else though.

LOL @ the 4th/5th tiers

I will upgrade UCONN to a Buy to a Hold - because IMHO Calhoun's offensive system needs an all-american quality super-star to make it run right - without that it will be interesting to see if the struggle on the road - they will probably contend for the BE title but they are not invincible.

[jerseyhoya34]

Fun thread here... Here are my thoughts...

1) CINCY - Sell. Even if they are able to scratch together a good season in spite of their personnel losses, which is a huge question mark, the overall vital signs in their program are not strong right now. Their coach appears to be on the hot seat, and some of their players have legal trouble. When they need to step up for the rigors of the NBE, I have my doubts about whether it will happen.

2) UCONN - Hold to Buy. If Andrew Bynum pulls his name out of the draft, this one turns into a buy. However, I think UCONN is slightly overrated headed into the season. They'll be a very good team, although the stock is overvalued at this time. The loss of Villenueva should not be underestimated. The major question marks regard Anderson and whether he can return to previous form and AJ Price and whether he'll be ready to go in the fall after a serious illness.

3) DePaul - Sell. They are coming into a superior league and have undergone some wholesale changes in player personnel and coaching. I think they'll be better than I expect at this point, but I don't think they'll be on the NCAA bubble in March.

4) Georgetown - BUY. We're better than our end of season performance showed, so I have to say that this one is a buy. Add in how our roster is only improving in terms of quality for the 2006 season, and this one looks like a buy and hold, with profit taking to occur after a year or two.

5) Louisville - HOLD. I might sell this one during the season, but I think the vital signs are strong for this program in the long term. Their 2006 recruiting is shaping up nicely, and they look to be one of the top 4 or 5 programs in the BE on a perennial basis. If you haven't sold yet, this one is a keeper in the long term.

6) Marquette - HOLD. I appreciate the fact that their recruiting class is nice, but freshmen will only carry you so far in the NBE, unless it is one heck of a class. I would hold this one for the season and buy next year if these freshmen are special.

7) Notre Dame - HOLD to BUY. They have a decent recruiting class and only lose Thomas, who was up and down at best this season. Francis, Falls, and Quinn are a solid nucleus for them and should not be underestimated. Although they are not the most athletic team, they are usually in the game and have some grit. I'll be surprised if they do not return to the tournament this season.

8) Pitt - SELL. I have to be honest with this one. With the losses of Taft and Trautman and the probable departure of Krauser, this program is going to be hurting next season. They have a good to very good recruiting class but not much to go along with it in terms of returning players. I think there is going to be some pressure on Dixon if things don't start looking up there because they appear to be looking down and quickly.

9) Providence - BUY. With the loss of Gomes, this program is at rock bottom, so I'll buy and hope for the best. Their coach seems to be getting out on the trail and has some modest, but appreciable, success. Please note that I am not buying this one and thinking Provy will be halfway decent next season. I just think that they'll be better than this in the long term.

10) Rutgers - SELL. Waters cannot develop talent and won't develop this incoming talent. In spite of their deeper roster, more of the same in New Brunswick and Piscataway this season. Rutgers, as always, is a sell.

11) SHU - SELL. This program is a mess that will not be cleaned up until they fire their coach. This season will be very much on the ugly side in the Oranges, and I wonder whether they'll finish behind South Florida.

12) SJU - BUY. I like what Norm Roberts is doing there and believe he's doing a very good job on the recruiting trail, which is very important for that program in its rebuilding phase. They came up with some very respectable wins last season, and I expect it to continue. Like we were last year, these guys could be a middle of the pack "surprise" team this season.

13) South Florida - HOLD. They came on toward the end of the season. Although they are not a hoops team by any stretch of the imagination, they'll be on my watch list moving forward because they could move up if they invest in their program.

14) Syracuse - HOLD. Boeheim does better when nobody expects him to do so. The Vermont loss is one of the worst for their program in several years. I believe that they'll bounce back and surprise some people this year, but I think they'll be inconsistent until their rising juniors (Roberts, McCroskey, Watkins) can show some signs of life. Problematic factors do include the fact that they lose a ton of their production, and their point guard recruit will likely not be eligible for competition. So, GMac will have to run the point again, which is ideally where he'd not play.

15) Villanova - BUY. I am buying this stock right now. They played UNC better than anyone in the tournament in March, without their best player in Sumpter. Obviously, frontcourt health is a question mark here, but I question how much that even matters because they have capable guys in Sheridan and so forth.

16) WVU - HOLD. I am holding this one right now because I believe the losses of Sally and Fischer will matter more than most people think. I also believe that teams will figure out how to play WVU and will eventually neutralize guys like Gansey. Pittsnogle is a tougher beast, but he can be contained, if not shut down.

[Gold Hoya]

What is this, "Around the Horn"?

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

Yes and I am Woody Page - are there any more questions?

[lichoya68]

top three in the big east next year not in any pariticular order gu.. nova and uconn thats the three go hoyas first respect and then fear and oh my god if patrick were elibible owwowoowowowo

[jerseyhoya34]

I think the following teams will get into the NCAA next season (in no particular order): Nova, GU, UCONN, Louisville, Cincy (bubble), WVU (bubble), Syracuse, and Notre Dame (bubble). I think Pitt and SJU will be on the outside looking in.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

I think those are all very solid picks Jersey - do you think that the BE will only get 8 bids though? I could see 9 to 10 bids provided the bubble teams are strong - I mean you've got to think that 5th through 10th place in this league is going to show a lot of paridy and give each other a lot of losses during the conference season.

[jerseyhoya34]

stpetersburghoya said:

I think those are all very solid picks Jersey - do you think that the BE will only get 8 bids though? I could see 9 to 10 bids provided the bubble teams are strong - I mean you've got to think that 5th through 10th place in this league is going to show a lot of paridy and give each other a lot of losses during the conference season.

Looking at the rosters, top to bottom, I don't think we'll see the BE bubble teams in the 9-11 range getting in this next season. That may change in the future, but I see the Pitt and SJU teams as being slightly below what is needed to get in. Of course, I may be proven wrong and can be, particularly if SJU overachieves, but my money would be on the 8 teams that I mentioned.