bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
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Post by bamahoya11 on Oct 26, 2017 17:29:31 GMT -5
Right, but my point is what is the benefit of the marginal upgrades you mention, especially in a rebuilding year? If Ewing was concerned about SOS and making the postseason, then I would be right there with you. But if Ewing's goal is a winning record, what is the difference between a team ranked 340 vs a team ranked 275? A winning record doesn't guarantee that the team/program improved during the season.. 10-1 in the ooc & 5-13 in conference is a winning season.. Will you really be satisfied with that? If Ewing does exactly what you say 10-1 and 5-13 in league play, I would think that's an acceptable result for his first year. Even with the scheduling, I'll be honest that I would think it an accomplishment to win more than we lose. Also, unlike some on here, I think the cupboard is pretty bare. I would rate the 15-14 record you posit as acceptable and any more league wins as a "successful" first campaign. Reading some of the projections, I just think folks are being way too optimistic. If he does some of the things folks in the prediction thread are suggesting, Ewing should be the front runner for national coach of the year. But, even if he doesn't, I don't think fans should gloss over a .500 season as a disappointment. The only risk he runs is if we do lose 2-3 OOC games it would not be a good look. But still, it's his first season. I just want to see how we look on the court.
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LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,406
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Post by LCPolo18 on Oct 27, 2017 10:29:53 GMT -5
Yes, it absolutely is. The 15-14 team that beats 250+ teams is almost certainly better (unquestionably more challenged), and closer to contending for the post-season. Yes they would be marginally more challenged. I'm not sure you could definitively say that the team is better, since that's abstract and matters more about execution than opponent. I don't think you can say they are closer to contending for the post-season, unless you're just saying the team would get a 10 or so bump in RPI, which still likely wouldn't be enough to qualify for a post-season bid. The marginal gains are so insignificant to the overall goals of the season for the program, that it doesn't really matter. Most fans are not going to know the difference between Jacksonville and Mount St Mary's. Being RPI 90 instead of 100 is not going to change anything in terms of playoff chances. If you were saying that a schedule of 250+ teams plus the PK80 would be better, that would be a totally different argument and I would be right there with you. But simply improving the bottom end of the non-conference schedule just doesn't have much upside. It's like asking me which piece of moldy bread I want to eat. Either way I'm going to be sick afterwards. I've said it before, I want a better non-conference schedule and I really hope this is just a one year approach. I can just understand that if their goal is a winning season, then they might as well do everything they can to achieve that goal. In my opinion, even if we have a great OOC, if we then get slaughtered in the Big East, it's not a good season regardless of whether we are over .500. I agree, and I'm not saying it would be a good season just based on record. Though it would also depend on your definition of "slaughtered". Having a 6-12 record and losing a lot of games by close margin while being competitive on the court would give me hope for the future. That's why I personally am not focused on the record, but rather the improvement on the court and rebuilding the fan interest. Moreover, these 15-14 projections come from KenPom's projections, which includes a projection of 6-12 in the Big East. Personally, I think there's a very real chance we fall short of 6 Big East wins, in which case we likely aren't above .500 anyway. Sure, I could see that happening as well. But if Ewing's goal is a winning season, having a more difficult non-conference schedule would make it even less likely to reach that goal since it would potentially require more Big East wins. I also disagree with the notion of the fan-base being "energized" by a 15-14 record because it's a winning season. Everyone here on HoyaTalk likely attends or watches all the games. We'll be able to judge progress based on the on-court performance. But for the thousands of fans that watch a couple of the big games each season and just see the box scores (especially in a down year), wins and losses are going to be the only tangible metric of progress (outside of a post-season bid which is not that likely this season). A winning record would show improvement over the past two seasons. As I've said before, all of us here on HoyaTalk will see through it based on the strength of schedule, and I'm not saying I'll be satisfied by it. But if the team has a winning record this season, I could see Ewing generating more fan interest in next year's team (that will hopefully have a more difficult schedule). You do realize that if JT3 had scheduled differently, he might have been over .500 last year, with no other changes? We lost last year to Maryland (46), Arkansas State (124), Wisconsin (21), and Oklahoma (22). We finished 14-18. Substitute MEAC/SWAC for those 4 games. Suddenly, instead of being 14-18, we would have been 18-14. Would that have made last year a "better" season? It feels safe to assume that if JT3 had finished 18-14 by beating up on horrible teams, the fans would not have been energized and people would have been calling for his head anyway. I agree that it wouldn't have made last season a better season, but these are different circumstances. Ewing is a new coach implementing a new system (I hope) and trying to stop the bleeding after two losing seasons. Fans do not have an expectation of playoffs this year, but in my mind another losing season would start putting doubts back in their heads. A winning season would show progress and give fans hope of a playoff shot in the 2018-2019 season. JT3 had already lost support of some fans before last season, and the expectation was a Sweet 16 not a winning record.
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