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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 25, 2018 14:51:33 GMT -5
If we are being honest Blair has been pretty awful in conference. He doesn't lack confidence,unlike Pickett until the last 2 games, and seemingly has been given a green light by Pat for some reason which has helped him put up some numbers. He's not efficient, and doesn't really bring too much else to the table other than scoring. That said he's about what you would expect from a 3 star freshman recruit being throw into immediate action. He will grow as he gets stronger and hopefully he dedicates more time to other aspects of his game. Blair has definitely struggled, especially last night. He hasn't been particularly efficient either, though he is - BY FAR - the least prone to turnovers of all of guards. I know it does not sound like much, but there is a lot of benefit from that even if it doesn't directly show up in points. As the one post on Casual Hoya demonstrated, our offensive efficiency when Blair is on the court is way higher than when he's off. I do think one of Blair's benefits is that he does have a knack for positioning himself for three point shots. He has missed a fair number (especially last night), but they are generally decent shots. Still, the fact that he's often open and gets off good shots forces the defenses to defend him, which cannot be said for others. The real problem is that all of our guards are flawed, and you have to play some of them, and I think Blair generally is one of the guards who gives us the greatest chance to win each night. Blair and Mosely have easily been our best guards in Big East play - Mulmore has fallen off tremendously from the OOC schedule, and Dickerson has been really awful.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 26, 2018 2:30:51 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever.
Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court.
What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 26, 2018 6:34:20 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever. Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court. What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though. True, except sometimes Blair shoots from 25' and that's never a good shot, unless there are less than 2 seconds on the clock or we're up by 20 points. Smart, open shots are always available with good passing and movement when the opponent is packed inside.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 26, 2018 6:43:36 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever. Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court. What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though. True, except sometimes Blair shoots from 25' and that's never a good shot, unless there are less than 2 seconds on the clock or we're up by 20 points. Smart, open shots are always available with good passing and movement when the opponent is packed inside. Yeah but does that really happen that much? Most of Blair's misses are open shots within the offense. I'll take his occasional chuck. I actually wouldn't mind if Blair influenced Mosely a bit more and he took a couple to balance it out. Yes the result would likely be the same but both will have to be able to catch and shoot going forward so might as well start now.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 26, 2018 7:01:44 GMT -5
True, except sometimes Blair shoots from 25' and that's never a good shot, unless there are less than 2 seconds on the clock or we're up by 20 points. Smart, open shots are always available with good passing and movement when the opponent is packed inside. Yeah but does that really happen that much? Most of Blair's misses are open shots within the offense. I'll take his occasional chuck. I actually wouldn't mind if Blair influenced Mosely a bit more and he took a couple to balance it out. Yes the result would likely be the same but both will have to be able to catch and shoot going forward so might as well start now. From having watched all the games, yes it does. Pat sat him for it. As we've seen, our BE games are either very close wins or losses, or blow-out losses. We cannot afford bad shots, even occassionally. I would rather he not shoot the 25' and pass, or move and dribble for a better shot. I agree with you that Jagan (and Mulmore and Johnson) needs to shoot when open to keep the defense honest.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 26, 2018 10:33:12 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever. Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court. What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though. Yes, and I would add that the offense doesn't actually get a ton of open shots overall (virtually no layups/dunks unless its on a fastbreak, and we don't get many of those either), so we need to take them when they are there. I, too, have advocated cutting Pickett's minutes in the past, but you cannot pass up open, good shots. Clearly, the scouting report on us involves packing it in and letting us shoot. DePaul executed this strategy well. While it is an extremely logical strategy to deploy against us, and it will likely work in most instances, at some point our guys are going to shoot well (even if it's just a lucky game), and in that instance, it could keep us in a game we otherwise would lose. One of the hallmarks of a good offense is getting guys clean, open, good looks and taking them. That was actually a goal of the Princeton offense in its original incarnation, but in practice it didn't always work that way when Georgetown used it (and we hadn't used it in its pure form in several years).
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Jan 26, 2018 10:55:53 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever. Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court. What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though. I think that both Blair and Pickett are both natural scorers, so you need to let them shoot when they have a shot they feel confident they can make. Scorers are naturally aggressive and need to play that way to be effective. Sometimes that means you have to live with what looks like a tough shot but if they feel they can make that shot they need to play that way. Blair struggled in the last game but I would not be surprised to see him go 5 for 7 from three, and get 20+ in one of the next games. Let's keep him, and Pickett, being aggressive and I think good things wil come later this year and even more so in future years as they get stronger and more seasoned.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 11:03:02 GMT -5
God, the worst thing you could do to Blair is tell him to shoot less now. Same with Pickett -- and I was advocating to cut his minutes back, but I wouldn't tell him to stop shooting open shots ever. Neither of these guys have poor shot selection. They aren't great shooters yet, or consistent, but both have a good enough stroke (especially Pickett from outside), that you don't want to blunt their aggression while on the court. What a massive mistake is would be to teach either of them to pass up open shots, though. I think that both Blair and Pickett are both natural scorers, so you need to let them shoot when they have a shot they feel confident they can make. Scorers are naturally aggressive and need to play that way to be effective. Sometimes that means you have to live with what looks like a tough shot but if they feel they can make that shot they need to play that way. Blair struggled in the last game but I would not be surprised to see him go 5 for 7 from three, and get 20+ in one of the next games. Let's keep him, and Pickett, being aggressive and I think good things wil come later this year and even more so in future years as they get stronger and more seasoned. Yup, don't need to neuter their aggression. I'm tired of players (in the past & lesser extent now) passing up open looks. This is especially frustrating when either a contested shot is attempted latter in the shot clock or (GULP) the ball is turned over. The worst shot taken is the one you don't attempt. Let in fly young fellas, LET IT FLY!
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justsaying
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Post by justsaying on Jan 26, 2018 12:21:23 GMT -5
I'll take a missed shot over a turnover anytime. At the least with a missed shot you had a chance to up your score; a turnover you gave the ball to the other team without the opportunity to score.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 12:37:42 GMT -5
Im not advocating for sitting Blair but I would rather him drive more. Hes not a great shooter yet. In fact he's one of the worst on the team but he is really good at drawing contact. I just wish a few of the other guys had the green light/confidence to take the 3's that he does. In conference Pickett and Blair are taking more 3's than the rest of the team combined.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 26, 2018 12:45:38 GMT -5
Im not advocating for sitting Blair but I would rather him drive more. Hes not a great shooter yet. In fact he's one of the worst on the team but he is really good at drawing contact. I just wish a few of the other guys had the green light/confidence to take the 3's that he does. In conference Pickett and Blair are taking more 3's than the rest of the team combined. While I agree in principle, Mulmore's hip-launched set shot requires a ton of open space, so he can't fire unless literally wide open; Kaleb's form has regressed; Jagan is the one guard who can sometimes successfully take it to the basket. We just don't have enough shooters to fire away across the board.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 12:52:41 GMT -5
Im not advocating for sitting Blair but I would rather him drive more. Hes not a great shooter yet. In fact he's one of the worst on the team but he is really good at drawing contact. I just wish a few of the other guys had the green light/confidence to take the 3's that he does. In conference Pickett and Blair are taking more 3's than the rest of the team combined. Pickett and Blair both should keep shooting when open. We are the best rebounding (3rd ORB) team in the BEast which gives us more chances for putbacks, resets etc.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 26, 2018 13:04:23 GMT -5
Im not advocating for sitting Blair but I would rather him drive more. Hes not a great shooter yet. In fact he's one of the worst on the team but he is really good at drawing contact. I just wish a few of the other guys had the green light/confidence to take the 3's that he does. In conference Pickett and Blair are taking more 3's than the rest of the team combined. Pickett and Blair both should keep shooting when open. We are the best rebounding (3rd ORB) team in the BEast which gives us more chances for putbacks, resets etc. Good point - I am not used to us being effective on the boards so I have not considered that when assessing our outside shots.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 14:16:04 GMT -5
Im not advocating for sitting Blair but I would rather him drive more. Hes not a great shooter yet. In fact he's one of the worst on the team but he is really good at drawing contact. I just wish a few of the other guys had the green light/confidence to take the 3's that he does. In conference Pickett and Blair are taking more 3's than the rest of the team combined. Pickett and Blair both should keep shooting when open. We are the best rebounding (3rd ORB) team in the BEast which gives us more chances for putbacks, resets etc. If those two should shoot when open then pretty much everyone besides Dickerson should. Blair takes the most shots per 100 possessions in conference play and has the wort eFG and TS%. That's due to so many of his shots being 3's and he has only hit 27% of them. There just seems to be a lot of love for him on this board that I don't get. I guess it comes down to Dickerson and Mulmore being so bad. I honestly think if Mulmore and Kaleb had the green light that Blair did they would score just as much. It's clear that Pat likes Blair because he draws up a ton of plays for him out of TOs. He doesn't lack confidence which I guess is about all you need on the team this year as Mulmore and Kaleb have lost theirs. Blair brings nothing outside of scoring either. He turns it over less than the other guards which helps but I think that is more because he shoots before he gets the chance to turn it over. He has the worst DRtg by far. If he was an upper classman this board would be killing him but since we are all just looking for hope he gets a pass I guess.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Jan 26, 2018 14:50:37 GMT -5
Pickett and Blair both should keep shooting when open. We are the best rebounding (3rd ORB) team in the BEast which gives us more chances for putbacks, resets etc. If those two should shoot when open then pretty much everyone besides Dickerson should. Blair takes the most shots per 100 possessions in conference play and has the wort eFG and TS%. That's due to so many of his shots being 3's and he has only hit 27% of them. There just seems to be a lot of love for him on this board that I don't get. I guess it comes down to Dickerson and Mulmore being so bad. I honestly think if Mulmore and Kaleb had the green light that Blair did they would score just as much. It's clear that Pat likes Blair because he draws up a ton of plays for him out of TOs. He doesn't lack confidence which I guess is about all you need on the team this year as Mulmore and Kaleb have lost theirs. Blair brings nothing outside of scoring either. He turns it over less than the other guards which helps but I think that is more because he shoots before he gets the chance to turn it over. He has the worst DRtg by far. If he was an upper classman this board would be killing him but since we are all just looking for hope he gets a pass I guess. The bolded part. Everyone else is still gun shy. Mulmore & Johnson are reluctant to pull the trigger. Shoot the ball when open, you move the ball to get open shots. If I'm reading correctly, he averages .315 avg 3pt FG & before his last 1-6 outing he was shooting .333. Give him a little more credit . He also has a knack for getting fouled pulling up from the 3 point line. He is a threat on the other teams scouting report. They know he's going to shoot that shoot, you can't say that about the other guards. The floor has to be opened up for Govan & Derrickson. I would be shocked if he doesn't become a sniper by the time he leaves the Hilltop. If his fringe struggles (.315 3pt) pay off down the road, this is the year to build.
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Post by HoyaRejuveNation85 on Jan 26, 2018 15:03:46 GMT -5
I thought we had plenty of good open looks from outside against DePaul. We just couldn't hit anything. Their defense packed it in against our interior guys and tried to cover the outside. I thought our ball movement, even though we didn't hit much, was pretty good and much improved, even though the shots didn't fall. We get good shooters and still have our inside game (big if) and things are different. I agree that Blair and Pickett get a lot of love even though they're not efficient. That's largely a product of our team. They are true scorers, or at least have those instincts, far more than our other perimeter and wing players. If we had Austin and Hollis and others on this team, they would be minor players and the coaching staff would have the luxury of sitting them to discuss their shot selections. On this team, the coaches have to coach them through it. Big difference.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Jan 26, 2018 15:49:14 GMT -5
I like everything about this kid...he just needs to keep doing what he does. There are only 3 or 4 guys that require a defense to pay attention and he’s one of them.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 26, 2018 15:51:02 GMT -5
He turns it over less than the other guards which helps but I think that is more because he shoots before he gets the chance to turn it over. He has the worst DRtg by far. If he was an upper classman this board would be killing him but since we are all just looking for hope he gets a pass I guess. I think this point is often understated, because turnovers aren't always as noticeable in the flow of the game (though when the Hoyas turn it over so much it's hard to miss) as missed shots, etc. That said, Blair turns it over considerably less than our other guards. These are our player's turnover rates for Big East play (because it's a turnover rate, it accounts for differences in number of minutes played etc., and is more useful than simply the raw number of turnovers): Walker: 12.6 Govan: 14.9 Derrickson: 17.5 Blair: 18.3 Mosely: 28.4 Pickett: 30.5 Johnson: 31.2 Dickerson: 32.6 Mulmore: 42.3 As you can see, Blair is significantly better than anybody except our bigs. Dickerson and Mulmore turn it over at a significantly higher rate than Blair, and Mosely is not far behind. Keep in mind that when players turn it over, not only is it 0 for us, but often points for the other team. This is why the turnovers are particularly killer, and it's why Blair has to play. If you were to put Blair on our teams from 2009-2013, or even some of the DSR teams, Blair would probably be getting spot minutes since those teams had much higher quality guards. But, for lack of any better options, Blair is easily among the two best guards. I would add that both Mulmore and Dickerson's offensive efficiency has been abysmal in Big East play (Mulmore 77.8, Dickerson, 66.7, in contrast to Blair at 90.6, and Mosely at 93.8 - none are good numbers but Blair/Mosely are clearly the best).
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 26, 2018 16:10:34 GMT -5
2003, where do you go for stats if you want to isolate BE numbers from the OOC?
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 26, 2018 16:22:53 GMT -5
He turns it over less than the other guards which helps but I think that is more because he shoots before he gets the chance to turn it over. He has the worst DRtg by far. If he was an upper classman this board would be killing him but since we are all just looking for hope he gets a pass I guess. I think this point is often understated, because turnovers aren't always as noticeable in the flow of the game (though when the Hoyas turn it over so much it's hard to miss) as missed shots, etc. That said, Blair turns it over considerably less than our other guards. These are our player's turnover rates for Big East play (because it's a turnover rate, it accounts for differences in number of minutes played etc., and is more useful than simply the raw number of turnovers): Walker: 12.6 Govan: 14.9 Derrickson: 17.5 Blair: 18.3 Mosely: 28.4 Pickett: 30.5 Johnson: 31.2 Dickerson: 32.6 Mulmore: 42.3 As you can see, Blair is significantly better than anybody except our bigs. Dickerson and Mulmore turn it over at a significantly higher rate than Blair, and Mosely is not far behind. Keep in mind that when players turn it over, not only is it 0 for us, but often points for the other team. This is why the turnovers are particularly killer, and it's why Blair has to play. If you were to put Blair on our teams from 2009-2013, or even some of the DSR teams, Blair would probably be getting spot minutes since those teams had much higher quality guards. But, for lack of any better options, Blair is easily among the two best guards. I would add that both Mulmore and Dickerson's offensive efficiency has been abysmal in Big East play (Mulmore 77.8, Dickerson, 66.7, in contrast to Blair at 90.6, and Mosely at 93.8 - none are good numbers but Blair/Mosely are clearly the best). As I said above he turns it over less because possessions end with him and he doesn't pass. You are comparing him to the ball handlers. Even with that said he has 4.4 TOs/100 possessions and Mulmore who we know is awful has 5.3 and Jahvon takes 21.5 shots while Mulmore takes 5.8. Jahvon has the highest usage of anyone on the team which is amazing. When your worst shooter is getting the most shots that usually not good. He has been pretty bad in the close losses as well. He has the highest net negative rating of anyone but Mulmore and Dickerson, who I refuse to include in any of this because he shouldnt even be on the team and luckily it seems like hes been relegated. If Jahvon was responsible for bringing it up and Mulmore was just the guy that shot open 3's whenever he wanted I think the numbers would be very different. If we were actually concerned with winning I would try Mulmore in the Jahvon role with Jagan at PG. We know Mulmore can hit open 3 and the defense would improve but its clear his confidence as shot as he knows the end is near. Since we aren't concerned about winning I have no problem with Jahvon getting lots of minutes but I do think Kaleb is worth salvaging. I think this team would be much better next year with Kaleb gaining confidence as he is a much better two way player. I just don't know how far down the road we are kicking the can at this point. Also to the people saying teams are concentrating on Jahvon yet all the shots he's taking are open ones doesn't make sense. If teams were focusing on him he wouldn't be getting open shots. He's just not afraid to shoot. I wish a few others had the same mentality. Its clear what teams are focusing on and that is packing the paint and stopping the bigs.
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