Next Segment of the Season

[aleutianhoya]

As I said after an earlier defeat, I have no problem with venting, complaining, calls for change, etc. And plenty are doing that elsewhere on this board

But...it seems virtually impossible that there will be a coaching change in the next month (and nearly virtually impossible it would come before season's end). So, for those who still have a modicum of desire that the season take a turn for the better, here are my thoughts on this next set of games.

We have six games until BE play starts. Five of those six games are games we "should" (under normal circumstances) win: vs. Howard; vs. Coppin St.; vs. Elon; vs. LaSalle (neutral); and UNC-G. None is on the road. We play Cuse between LaSalle and UNC-G. To have any realistic hope of salvaging our season, we have to go -- at a minimum -- 5-1 in those six games. That would put us at 7-5 entering the 18 conference games (and one OOC vs. a similarly foundering UConn team). Not good, obviously. But at least with "only" the one bad loss (assuming Ark. St. turns out to be a bad loss, an assumption which -- incredibly -- may not prove to be true), we would then have ample opportunities for good wins to get us to 18 wins and a bid.

I'm not predicting it's going to happen! The last two games would suggest we won't get another "good" win the entire year. And the loss to Ark. St. suggests we may have plenty of bad losses in our future. I get it. But it's not hard for us to at least put ourselves in position to make the conference schedule interesting by taking care of business in the rest of 2016. 5-1, even after the two weeks we just had, is still very much doable.

So what do I want to see?

(1) Very quick hooks to guys that aren't performing. We saw III do it with Isaac and with Jesse this week. I hope that continues. I certainly don't favor the "don't ever play them again" approach because I think if we are going to improve, it's almost impossible for us to do it without those two guys improving (especially Jesse, since he's bound to get significant time almost regardless). We've got to do that with the guards too, including Rodney (if he's not showing proper effort or his shot isn't falling).

(2) It'd really, really help if one of Mulmore, Campbell, or Moseley improves in at least some area. Mulmore seems able to get to the hole, but hasn't shown the consistently ability to finish or dish. If he could improve there, he'd have a more clear role. Moseley seems like he's having trouble adjusting to the speed of the college game. It'd be great if he had a year to get 10 minutes as a sub because I do think he has some solid ability. But we may not have that luxury. Again, then, can he perform a specific role (defensive stopper, ball-mover, etc.). Campbell I frankly don't have much hope for. But this all gets easier if guys can figure out some role. One of the complaints the past couple of years is that we've had "one dimensional" guys in too many spots. And that's true. But I'd gladly take some one dimensional guys right now! That'd be one more dimension than we have.

(3) If none of our guards is playing well, just go big. We have a lot of options at the guard spots, though none of them have played consistently well aside from LJ. So, let's try having LJ play the "one" at times, with Rodney at the 2, and some mix of our bigs at the other spots. Can it hurt? We could go zone to protect ourselves on D.

(4) Things get easier if Marcus can come back. Is he a miracle worker? Obviously not. But he's a darned good rebounder, and is a true four (which I don't think we really have right now). Agau has shown flashes, but a bigger team can move him around, and he doesn't seem to be the outside threat Marcus is. Let's take our time on him, if he's nursing some injury and there is a chance of his complete recovery this year. We ought to be able to get through the next couple weeks without him.

(5) Press. I mean, really press. Not this "we'll play a straight man and if they're stupid enough to dribble to the corner we'll trap but otherwise it'll just be a straight man" stuff. That doesn't do us any real good. For one thing, it's not like we really have the defensive presence to give other team's guards trouble bringing it up the court. So try the 1-2-2 (both the passive version and the true trapping version). Try a true jump and run. If you get beat three straight times for layups, well, OK, take it off, or move to a different press.

[hoyasaxa2003]

I think this is a really good overview. I pretty much agree with all of it. A few thoughts:

(1) I agree with the quick hook on guys underperforming or not giving effort. As far as effort, the coaching staff is really better equipped to assess that than we are, but clearly JT3 was unhappy with both Copeland or Govan. After playing both significant minutes, he did not bench them solely because of their play - it was clearly something more, and deserved. For Copeland, if he cannot turn things around on offense, he really needs to sit because he's just not a net plus on defense. Govan, contrarily, actually does have offensive talent, and we really need him to see the Court and bring his best effort.

(2) I like the new starting lineup with Agau and Hayes. Agau clearly should start over Copeland at this point. Once Derrickson is back, he may deserve to start or get more of those minutes - he certainly should get minutes at the 4 (or as a small 5).

(3) Agreed about going big if our guards cannot get it done. Right now, Mosely, Mulmore, and Campbell are killing us. They are turning it over, not shooting twos or threes well, and not facilitating offense, either (essentially, they're doing nothing guards are supposed to do). Mulmore has shown promise in drawing fouls, but not much else. Mosely looks to have promise but he's a freshman (keep in mind Starks played a lot less as a freshman and wasn't very good and turned into a very nice player). We really need one of these guys to step up. I just don't think it's Campbell, but maybe Mulmore will get a better footing with some experience.

For all the talk of a "true" point guard, we just don't have one no matter what anybody says. I am not saying they cannot improve, but we do not have a player who can simply get the ball and make things happen. It's tough not to play any of these three because that eliminates a huge chunk of our roster, but right now I feel like they are getting playing time simply because they are guards and not because they are that good.

(4) Your point on the press is very important. Either press and trap or don't do it at all. There's really no use in expending energy with virtually no hope of turning the ball over. The worst combination is pressing and giving up easy twos and not turning over the ball, which we did last year.

(5) Get the fundamentals in order. For all the criticism of our team, if we can clean up some of the basics - rebounding and turnovers - we can win a fair number of games against good opponents. Whether we can do that, I don't know. I am glad we have a few games left against easier opponents. Of course, if we drop those games, we are in trouble.

[DanMcQ]

Hard to know what thread to put this in, but this year's version of the Hoyas could clearly benefit from more practice time.

[wahoohoya]

Probably in the minority here but I'd love to see the tempo go the other way - ditch the press (unless they really want to commit to it for the long term - which means recruiting for it), embrace solid half court defense, and work for good shots on offense (easier said than done, I know). JT3 was successful as a "system coach" - not sure why he has abandoned that.

Solid defense and efficient offense - that's a winning formula that used to define JT3 teams. Screw the Jay Bilas's of the world who keep spewing the rhetoric that fast tempo is the only acceptable way to play the game - its utter nonsense.

[eagle54]

Nov 24, 2016 20:46:13 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Probably in the minority here but I'd love to see the tempo go the other way - ditch the press (unless they really want to commit to it for the long term - which means recruiting for it), embrace solid half court defense, and work for good shots on offense (easier said than done, I know). JT3 was successful as a "system coach" - not sure why he has abandoned that.

Solid defense and efficient offense - that's a winning formula that used to define JT3 teams. Screw the Jay Bilas's of the world who keep spewing the rhetoric that fast tempo is the only acceptable way to play the game - its utter nonsense.

The games passed him by as his system that he learned didn't work at this level anymore.  He's now out there grasping to find something to work.  I believe that as I don't think he's got that much experience to change what he was trained to teach.  

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 21:44:34 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Nov 24, 2016 20:46:13 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Probably in the minority here but I'd love to see the tempo go the other way - ditch the press (unless they really want to commit to it for the long term - which means recruiting for it), embrace solid half court defense, and work for good shots on offense (easier said than done, I know). JT3 was successful as a "system coach" - not sure why he has abandoned that.

Solid defense and efficient offense - that's a winning formula that used to define JT3 teams. Screw the Jay Bilas's of the world who keep spewing the rhetoric that fast tempo is the only acceptable way to play the game - its utter nonsense.

The games passed him by as his system that he learned didn't work at this level anymore.  He's now out there grasping to find something to work.  I believe that as I don't think he's got that much experience to change what he was trained to teach.  

I won't dismiss your argument - maybe that is true. But there is nothing outdated about good ball movement and cutting on offense. It's all about reading and reacting and making smart choices to get good looks. I don't buy that JT3 can't be successful staying with his basic system and that it can't work at this level. I also don't buy that this current group of players can't play smarter. Seems more to me that he thought he needed to appease the masses who demand faster tempo basketball.

[eagle54]

Nov 24, 2016 21:59:24 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Nov 24, 2016 21:44:34 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

The games passed him by as his system that he learned didn't work at this level anymore.  He's now out there grasping to find something to work.  I believe that as I don't think he's got that much experience to change what he was trained to teach.  

I won't dismiss your argument - maybe that is true. But there is nothing outdated about good ball movement and cutting on offense. It's all about reading and reacting and making smart choices to get good looks. I don't buy that JT3 can't be successful staying with his basic system and that it can't work at this level. I also don't buy that this current group of players can't play smarter. Seems more to me that he thought he needed to appease the masses who demand faster tempo basketball.

I think your sentiments make the point.  He had a plan, did well early with players that were very talented, then met disappointment with players who were talented but didn't get it done and now is in a tailspin he doesn't understand.  I  think he's not sure of what he needs to do which isn't a good place to be in his seat.  I respect him for what he's done and for what he represents,  I just have no faith that he's going to right this as I think he's way over his head.  

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 22:12:49 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Nov 24, 2016 21:59:24 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

I won't dismiss your argument - maybe that is true. But there is nothing outdated about good ball movement and cutting on offense. It's all about reading and reacting and making smart choices to get good looks. I don't buy that JT3 can't be successful staying with his basic system and that it can't work at this level. I also don't buy that this current group of players can't play smarter. Seems more to me that he thought he needed to appease the masses who demand faster tempo basketball.

I think your sentiments make the point.  He had a plan, did well early with players that were very talented, then met disappointment with players who were talented but didn't get it done and now is in a tailspin he doesn't understand.  I  think he's not sure of what he needs to do which isn't a good place to be in his seat.  I respect him for what he's done and for what he represents,  I just have no faith that he's going to right this as I think he's way over his head.  

Agree that he is in a tailspin and probably not sure how to right the ship. Just disagree with the sentiment that his "old" system can't still be a successful model. The problem is that I don't see a winning model right now (or really any model) - which is a head scratcher.

[eagle54]

Nov 24, 2016 22:27:51 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Nov 24, 2016 22:12:49 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

I think your sentiments make the point.  He had a plan, did well early with players that were very talented, then met disappointment with players who were talented but didn't get it done and now is in a tailspin he doesn't understand.  I  think he's not sure of what he needs to do which isn't a good place to be in his seat.  I respect him for what he's done and for what he represents,  I just have no faith that he's going to right this as I think he's way over his head.  

Agree that he is in a tailspin and probably not sure how to right the ship. Just disagree with the sentiment that his "old" system can't still be a successful model. The problem is that I don't see a winning model right now - which is a head scratcher.

It's where we are.  I think if we ignore the Thompson factor for a minute, there are a million coaches in all big time sports that end up in this spot and it's just time for both to move on.  No hard feelings just things ran their course.  He should move on and have success somewhere else with a fresh slate and we should benefit with a new set of eyes and system on our current talent.  It's not a doom and gloom just the natural order of things in sports.  

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 22:32:31 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Nov 24, 2016 22:27:51 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Agree that he is in a tailspin and probably not sure how to right the ship. Just disagree with the sentiment that his "old" system can't still be a successful model. The problem is that I don't see a winning model right now - which is a head scratcher.

It's where we are.  I think if we ignore the Thompson factor for a minute, there are a million coaches in all big time sports that end up in this spot and it's just time for both to move on.  No hard feelings just things ran their course.  He should move on and have success somewhere else with a fresh slate and we should benefit with a new set of eyes and system on our current talent.  It's not a doom and gloom just the natural order of things in sports.  

Fair points but let's not hijack thread which is meant to discuss team play over the next few games. OP - apologies for the shift away from your original analysis.

[eagle54]

Nov 24, 2016 22:40:18 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Nov 24, 2016 22:32:31 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

It's where we are.  I think if we ignore the Thompson factor for a minute, there are a million coaches in all big time sports that end up in this spot and it's just time for both to move on.  No hard feelings just things ran their course.  He should move on and have success somewhere else with a fresh slate and we should benefit with a new set of eyes and system on our current talent.  It's not a doom and gloom just the natural order of things in sports.  

Fair points but let's not hijack thread which is meant to discuss team play over the next few games. OP - apologies for the shift away from your original analysis.

If you want me to focus on next few games in isolation I have some views and they aren't good from what we've all just witnessed. I'm trying to be positive.  

Do you want me to give a breakdown of the next few games or do we want to keep it positive?  

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 22:43:18 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Nov 24, 2016 22:40:18 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Fair points but let's not hijack thread which is meant to discuss team play over the next few games. OP - apologies for the shift away from your original analysis.

If you want me to focus on next few games in isolation I have some views and they aren't good from what we've all just witnessed. I'm trying to be positive.  

Do you want me to give a breakdown of the next few games or do we want to keep it positive?  

I'm just saying that this thread should discuss what the OP intended to discuss - which is not the JT3 big picture discussion. Not trying to be a moderator or anything - just didn't want to hijack the thread.

[eagle54]

Let's stop with dramatic hijacking talk. It's an open discussion and needs to be that.

In terms of near term schedule, I had originally had us 5-1 before we play Marquette. I'd love for that to happen still but if I had to bet my life on it I'd say we at best win 4 and more realistically 3.

With the BE schedule behind that I don't see this season ending well as I don't think we can play with many of these teams in our conference.

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 22:58:27 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Let's stop with dramatic hijacking talk. It's an open discussion and needs to be that.

In terms of near term schedule, I had originally had us 5-1 before we play Marquette. I'd love for that to happen still but if I had to bet my life on it I'd say we at best win 4 and more realistically 3.

With the BE schedule behind that I don't see this season ending well as I don't think we can play with many of these teams in our conference.

Dude - I was just trying to be respectful to the OP. I appreciated the exchange we had - but we did go to a place that this thread wasn't intended to go. That discussion is happening in other threads already and the OP wanted to discuss Gtown basketball without going there. Just common courtesy stuff.

Back on topic - I want to see us ditch the press. It's like a license to play without much discipline on both ends of the court.

[eagle54]

Nov 24, 2016 23:07:54 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Nov 24, 2016 22:58:27 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Let's stop with dramatic hijacking talk. It's an open discussion and needs to be that.

In terms of near term schedule, I had originally had us 5-1 before we play Marquette. I'd love for that to happen still but if I had to bet my life on it I'd say we at best win 4 and more realistically 3.

With the BE schedule behind that I don't see this season ending well as I don't think we can play with many of these teams in our conference.

Dude - I was just trying to be respectful to the OP. I appreciated the exchange we had - but we did go to a place that this thread wasn't intended to go. That discussion is happening in other threads already and the OP wanted to discuss Gtown basketball without going there. Just common courtesy stuff.

Back on topic - I want to see us ditch the press. It's like a license to play without much discipline on both ends of the court.

I'm guessing that OP means original poster but not sure.  I wouldn't worry so much about it but that's me. These conversations go where they will go.  You are just too respectful but I admire that.

As far as the press, if we can't run it then get rid of it.  The press is coaching and desire and I think we lack both right now so I'm with you. 

[wahoohoya]

Nov 24, 2016 23:24:15 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Nov 24, 2016 23:07:54 GMT -5 wahoohoya said:

Dude - I was just trying to be respectful to the OP. I appreciated the exchange we had - but we did go to a place that this thread wasn't intended to go. That discussion is happening in other threads already and the OP wanted to discuss Gtown basketball without going there. Just common courtesy stuff.

Back on topic - I want to see us ditch the press. It's like a license to play without much discipline on both ends of the court.

I'm guessing that OP means original poster but not sure.  I wouldn't worry so much about it but that's me. These conversations go where they will go.  You are just too respectful but I admire that.

As far as the press, if we can't run it then get rid of it.  The press is coaching and desire and I think we lack both right now so I'm with you. 

Hah well with a name "wahoohoya" I'm a bit of an outsider so try to be a good citizen. A lot of Virginia fans feel that Virginia is villified for playing at such a slow tempo - that tired "UVA is bad for basketball" sentiment fueled by ESPN. While they certainly have their differences, I thought JT3 and Bennett shared some core philosophies - namely an emphasis on defense and smart team offense. So the stylistic contrast in how the teams have been playing recently is crazy to me.

And frankly, this celebration by people like Bilas and Gus Johnson that this new modern Georgetown brand of basketball is a positive change simply because the tempo is faster amazes (and frustrates) me. Maybe I'm wrong, but seems like most on this board feel like JT3 is on the right track by wanting to press more and speed up the game. Honest question - why do we want to see that? It can work if that becomes your culture - like with Louisville or "Press Virginia". Or if you have elite guards and crazy athletic bigs - in which case, playing at a faster tempo makes sense.

I do think this team has good athleticism where it should opportunistically push the pace and try to get easy transition buckets. But seems like they struggle to find the right balance and want to play like they have Kentucky or UNC type talent. That's a losing strategy which JT3 can address immediately.

I think we would all agree that the defense and rebounding has to improve - and JT3 needs to sit guys who don't buy into that. The talent is there - it's all about commitment and desire.

[aleutianhoya]

I have nothing against slow tempo. I have nothing against fast tempo. The Wisconsins and Virginias of the world prove you can win consistently playing slow and prove you can recruit talented players.

There is certainly an argument to be made that at least against OK St, a slow tempo filled with backdoor cuts all game may have been the route to success.

Regardless, all I am interested in is what is our best chance for success the rest of this year. In that spirit, I do want to see if a true press can be successful. I dont think the full court D we have played has accomplished anything. If we cant press successfully, then let's just go with solid half court D or the passive 1-2-2 to slow things down.

[wahoohoya]

Fair enough. I'm skeptical that JT3 has committed enough to the press in practice to make it a viable strategy. So sure, interested to see if it could work but needs to be a long term commitment. Also seems that the coaches that employ a true press - i.e. Pitino and Huggins - demand perfection when running it and have quick hooks when players miss assignments or forget about the little things like rebounding. Also helps to have true rim protectors who can run the floor.

[SFHoya99]

Jay Bilas effectively said (paraphrasing): "Georgetown has enough talent. But they make a ton of stupid mistakes, and they don't give effort all the time."

From Jay's point of view, that meant that this team could get it together and be pretty good. Not great, but pretty good. That's one point of view, and Jay is paid for his.

I just doubt it. From what I see of this team, Pryor and Peak are good Big East players. Pryor is not nearly as good as his Kenner hype, but he's hardly the problem. We're a little thin at backup wing where Kaleb is more a 10 minute energy guy than a straight backup, but maybe Derrickson coming back can help that some.

At center, we're playing Govan, who is offensively astute but so damn soft that he's backup quality right now, and Hayes, who has looked pretty good but is always going to be a bit flawed. It's a bad position to be mediocre / slightly below expectations, but surrounded by the right players, they'd probably be manageable.

Power Forward and Point Guard are a disaster right now. Copeland is a complete bust at this point -- he's allowed his game to become just a jump shot and now it's not falling. He's not defending, rebounding, passing, he's soft. I'm sure he'll hit a shot at some point, but I couldn't be more disappointed with his game. I like Derrickson a lot more, but he might be too slow on D to ever be a complete player. And Agau is pretty flawed as well.

Point guard. Campbell has had one even passable game in three years. I love Jagan, but he's obviously not ready to be a starter. And Mulmore literally can't put the ball in the basket, so it really doesn't matter how fast he is.

This isn't necessarily a defense of the coaching staff. I think most fans view them as having too much control, but they do play a key role in the fact that we generally have two players that are quality BE starters (starters on a Top 3 BE team -- which really should be a goal). The rest of our vaunted depth is a whole bunch of backups who are about the same as each other.

The shift in offense and defense obviously doesn't help, either. So that's hope that the defensive lapses and some of the turnovers go away. But much of this isn't going to change. Copeland will continue to miss defensive assignments. Our players, aside of Peak, will shoot layups as if they've never attempted one with a defender there (who here misses the Wallace high off the glass layup?). We will continued to get destroyed on the boards because the vast majority of this team is incapable of bringing it with any consistency. We will throw the ball away 7-10 times a game for no apparent reason, because these guys are just not good passers or ballhandlers and no one has gotten better.

Pryor will be gone in a year. Peak at most has next year left. I think Moseley will develop into a player, and Waters seems like a really nice player. But other than that? We have guys with recruiting rankings, but for whatever reason, I don't think this team has the horses.

Whoever is the coach, it's a long rebuild.

[drquigley]

Nov 25, 2016 12:54:14 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Jay Bilas effectively said (paraphrasing): "Georgetown has enough talent. But they make a ton of stupid mistakes, and they don't give effort all the time."

From Jay's point of view, that meant that this team could get it together and be pretty good. Not great, but pretty good. That's one point of view, and Jay is paid for his.

I just doubt it. From what I see of this team, Pryor and Peak are good Big East players. Pryor is not nearly as good as his Kenner hype, but he's hardly the problem. We're a little thin at backup wing where Kaleb is more a 10 minute energy guy than a straight backup, but maybe Derrickson coming back can help that some.

At center, we're playing Govan, who is offensively astute but so damn soft that he's backup quality right now, and Hayes, who has looked pretty good but is always going to be a bit flawed. It's a bad position to be mediocre / slightly below expectations, but surrounded by the right players, they'd probably be manageable.

Power Forward and Point Guard are a disaster right now. Copeland is a complete bust at this point -- he's allowed his game to become just a jump shot and now it's not falling. He's not defending, rebounding, passing, he's soft. I'm sure he'll hit a shot at some point, but I couldn't be more disappointed with his game. I like Derrickson a lot more, but he might be too slow on D to ever be a complete player. And Agau is pretty flawed as well.

Point guard. Campbell has had one even passable game in three years. I love Jagan, but he's obviously not ready to be a starter. And Mulmore literally can't put the ball in the basket, so it really doesn't matter how fast he is.

This isn't necessarily a defense of the coaching staff. I think most fans view them as having too much control, but they do play a key role in the fact that we generally have two players that are quality BE starters (starters on a Top 3 BE team -- which really should be a goal). The rest of our vaunted depth is a whole bunch of backups who are about the same as each other.

The shift in offense and defense obviously doesn't help, either. So that's hope that the defensive lapses and some of the turnovers go away. But much of this isn't going to change. Copeland will continue to miss defensive assignments. Our players, aside of Peak, will shoot layups as if they've never attempted one with a defender there (who here misses the Wallace high off the glass layup?). We will continued to get destroyed on the boards because the vast majority of this team is incapable of bringing it with any consistency. We will throw the ball away 7-10 times a game for no apparent reason, because these guys are just not good passers or ballhandlers and no one has gotten better.

Pryor will be gone in a year. Peak at most has next year left. I think Moseley will develop into a player, and Waters seems like a really nice player. But other than that? We have guys with recruiting rankings, but for whatever reason, I don't think this team has the horses.

Whoever is the coach, it's a long rebuild.

I have to agree. JT3 is no idiot. He saw our weaknesses the last few years and tried to plug the holes. Unfortunately, none of the recruits he signed to fill them have measured up. I don't want to sound like a broken record but: He knew he needed a point guard and went out and got Tre Campbell: He knew he needed a big man and got Jesse Govan: He knew he needed a Power Forward and got Ike. You can't go 0 for 3 recruiting in this league and at this level and expect to be competitive. Maybe Derrickson will have a multiplier effect by clearing more boards, preventing second shot points, and starting more fast breaks. But despite the new arrivals this year, again, I don't think any of them fill the holes we all knew we had from last year.