Georgetown @ Seton Hall 2/10/15 discussion

[TBird41]

Feb 10, 2015 8:03:50 GMT -5 lda05816 said:

Feb 9, 2015 21:31:37 GMT -5 Buckets said:

If they play the rest of the way like their season average, they're in the tournament. If they play like they have the last two weeks, they'll be playing in the NIT. They have to do a lot wrong, sure, but they've definitely shown they can do a lot wrong lately.

This team is giving me flashbacks to 2008-09 starring Smith and Hopkins as the oft-maligned DaJuan Summers, Trawick as the city-tough guard not quite ready for senior leadership Jessie Sapp, DSR as Wright and Freeman, DSR as the talented but not quite ready to carry a team Wright/Freeman backcourt, talented freshman Isaac Copeland who might not be ready physically to play the post Greg Monroe, and the freshmen supporting cast of White/Peak/Campbell for Clark/Sims.

That team was a computer tiger as well, finished a game over .500 and 34th in Pomeroy's rankings. Also one of the most memorably, bafflingly frustrating teams I've ever had the misfortune of watching. So hopefully they turn it around.

I totally agree this team can miss the tournament, just think they are in a good spot at the moment and 4-2, or even 3-3 would probably do it. If they go 2-4 or worse down the stretch, they do not deserve to make the tourny.

The bubble looks weak but then agaan, I think that is the case every year, especially since they went to 68.

3 wins total almost assuredly gets them in, especially if they avoid a loss to DePaul or Marquette/Creighton (in the BET). They'd probably still be top 40 in the RPI, have no bad losses (their worst would be to a top 60 RPI team in Seton Hall / SJU), a top 5 SoS, two top 20 RPI wins and 2-3 other wins over 25-50 RPI teams. That's likely going to be enough, especially due to their strength of schedule.

Compare that with other bubble teams like LSU, who Lunardi has in and avoiding Dayton--RPI of 50, no top 25 RPI wins, 4 wins over 25-50 RPI teams, 3 losses to teams outside the top 150 RPI and the 93rd SoS. They deserve a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Or, take Illinois, who Lunardi has going to Dayton--RPI is 48, SoS is 65. They have 2 top 25 RPI wins and one loss outside the top 100 RPI. That resume deserves a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Remember, there's no platonic ideal they have to be better than. They just have to have one of the 36 best resumes of teams that didn't win their conference tournament.

[beenaround]

I don't care about any of this number crunching right now. How about just playing well?

[TBird41]

Feb 10, 2015 9:31:17 GMT -5 beenaround said:

I don't care about any of this number crunching right now. How about just playing well?

Works for me. Be nice to get another road win against a decent, albeit very beatable, team.

[GUJook97]

Feb 10, 2015 9:31:17 GMT -5 beenaround said:

I don't care about any of this number crunching right now. How about just playing well?

I think we will play well tonight, but I have a bad feeling SH will play the game of the year. This is a very streaky team. They beat up Nova at home and then lost to Marquette at home. I have no idea what type of game this will be.

As others said, I think this is the game of the year for SH. Their next 3 game are at Nova, at Providence and at SJU, and then they still have to play us on the road and another game vs Providence. If they dont win tonight, I think they are all but done.

[aleutianhoya]

Feb 10, 2015 9:21:24 GMT -5 TBird41 said:

Feb 10, 2015 8:03:50 GMT -5 lda05816 said:

I totally agree this team can miss the tournament, just think they are in a good spot at the moment and 4-2, or even 3-3 would probably do it. If they go 2-4 or worse down the stretch, they do not deserve to make the tourny.

The bubble looks weak but then agaan, I think that is the case every year, especially since they went to 68.

3 wins total almost assuredly gets them in, especially if they avoid a loss to DePaul or Marquette/Creighton (in the BET). They'd probably still be top 40 in the RPI, have no bad losses (their worst would be to a top 60 RPI team in Seton Hall / SJU), a top 5 SoS, two top 20 RPI wins and 2-3 other wins over 25-50 RPI teams. That's likely going to be enough, especially due to their strength of schedule.

Compare that with other bubble teams like LSU, who Lunardi has in and avoiding Dayton--RPI of 50, no top 25 RPI wins, 4 wins over 25-50 RPI teams, 3 losses to teams outside the top 150 RPI and the 93rd SoS. They deserve a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Or, take Illinois, who Lunardi has going to Dayton--RPI is 48, SoS is 65. They have 2 top 25 RPI wins and one loss outside the top 100 RPI. That resume deserves a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Remember, there's no platonic ideal they have to be better than. They just have to have one of the 36 best resumes of teams that didn't win their conference tournament.

If we go 3-3 to close the regular season, our projected RPI would be 28. Even if we lose our first available BET game to the worst possible opponent (your pick of Creighton, DePaul, or Marquette), the RPI jumps only to 33. Obviously, these are projections and they can change based on all the other teams' actual results over the next few weeks, but not by too much. It's extremely unlikely we'd miss the tournament in that scenario.

www.rpiwizard.com

[GUJook97]

We went from a team that was competing for 1st and 2nd place in the BE to discussing the least we need to do to make the NCAA tourney. Sigh. That's Georgetown basketball, I guess.

[guru]

Feb 10, 2015 9:37:42 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

Feb 10, 2015 9:21:24 GMT -5 TBird41 said:

3 wins total almost assuredly gets them in, especially if they avoid a loss to DePaul or Marquette/Creighton (in the BET). They'd probably still be top 40 in the RPI, have no bad losses (their worst would be to a top 60 RPI team in Seton Hall / SJU), a top 5 SoS, two top 20 RPI wins and 2-3 other wins over 25-50 RPI teams. That's likely going to be enough, especially due to their strength of schedule.

Compare that with other bubble teams like LSU, who Lunardi has in and avoiding Dayton--RPI of 50, no top 25 RPI wins, 4 wins over 25-50 RPI teams, 3 losses to teams outside the top 150 RPI and the 93rd SoS. They deserve a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Or, take Illinois, who Lunardi has going to Dayton--RPI is 48, SoS is 65. They have 2 top 25 RPI wins and one loss outside the top 100 RPI. That resume deserves a spot more than the Hoyas would?

Remember, there's no platonic ideal they have to be better than. They just have to have one of the 36 best resumes of teams that didn't win their conference tournament.

If we go 3-3 to close the regular season, our projected RPI would be 28. Even if we lose our first available BET game to the worst possible opponent (your pick of Creighton, DePaul, or Marquette), the RPI jumps only to 33. Obviously, these are projections and they can change based on all the other teams' actual results over the next few weeks, but not by too much. It's extremely unlikely we'd miss the tournament in that scenario.

www.rpiwizard.com

3-3 gets us in. The scenario that some of us fear is that we finish worse than that, which given recent performances would seem to loom as a distinct possibility. Let's just win tonight and pretty much put this conversation to bed.

[lda05816]

On a game related note, who would we like to see matchup with Gibbs and Whitehead? To start the game I say DSR on Gibbs and Jabril on Whitehead

[hoyasaxa2003]

Feb 10, 2015 9:40:44 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

We went from a team that was competing for 1st and 2nd place in the BE to discussing the least we need to do to make the NCAA tourney. Sigh. That's Georgetown basketball, I guess.

I think this is the result of a combination of our inconsistency and the relative parity of the Big East this year. At this point, it's feasible to see Georgetown finishing anywhere from 2nd through 8th (though realistically, given the fact that the teams at the bottom are highly likely to drop a bunch of games, I think 6th or 7th is a more realistic floor even if we totally bombed), which is pretty crazy when you consider that there are only 6 games left.

If we can win the next three, then suddenly the conversation will have changed yet again. It's the nature of how close everything is at this point.

[FrazierFanatic]

Hall favored by 1 1/2. Gotta see energy and focus from the opening tap. Joshua needs to bring some intensity RIGHT NOW.

[TBird41]

Feb 10, 2015 10:40:01 GMT -5 guru said:

Feb 10, 2015 9:37:42 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

If we go 3-3 to close the regular season, our projected RPI would be 28. Even if we lose our first available BET game to the worst possible opponent (your pick of Creighton, DePaul, or Marquette), the RPI jumps only to 33. Obviously, these are projections and they can change based on all the other teams' actual results over the next few weeks, but not by too much. It's extremely unlikely we'd miss the tournament in that scenario.

www.rpiwizard.com

3-3 gets us in. The scenario that some of us fear is that we finish worse than that, which given recent performances would seem to loom as a distinct possibility. Let's just win tonight and pretty much put this conversation to bed.

2-4 with wins over DePaul and SJU at home and 1-1 in the BE (win over DePaul, loss to St. John's) gets us to RPI of 41 and SoS of 4. I think that's pretty much in, especially once you factor in we have 4-5 good wins and no bad losses.

Let's get the win tonight and help make the worst case scenario moot.

[drquigley]

Feb 10, 2015 10:48:54 GMT -5 FrazierFanatic said:

Hall favored by 1 1/2. Gotta see energy and focus from the opening tap. Joshua needs to bring some intensity RIGHT NOW.

Wow, total lack of respect for Hoyas. Okay, here's what I'm going to do. Tonight and for every one of the Hoyas remaining regular season games I am going to bet on the Hoyas based on the spread. Of course these will be "mythical" bets. Tonight I'm putting $1,000 on the Hoyas.By regular season's end I expect to have won enough to pay for my grandkids college education. Of course since I will be using their college education fund to play with there is a chance that in my mythical betting world they may wind up with a long career in the fastfood industry instead. Stay tuned.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Feb 10, 2015 11:37:10 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Feb 10, 2015 10:48:54 GMT -5 FrazierFanatic said:

Hall favored by 1 1/2. Gotta see energy and focus from the opening tap. Joshua needs to bring some intensity RIGHT NOW.

Wow, total lack of respect for Hoyas. Okay, here's what I'm going to do. Tonight and for every one of the Hoyas remaining regular season games I am going to bet on the Hoyas based on the spread. Of course these will be "mythical" bets. Tonight I'm putting $1,000 on the Hoyas.By regular season's end I expect to have won enough to pay for my grandkids college education. Of course since I will be using their college education fund to play with there is a chance that in my mythical betting world they may wind up with a long career in the fastfood industry instead. Stay tuned.

Early Money on the Hoyas so line has now swung to the Hoyas 2 pt favorites.

[grandmahoya]

I knew when we lost to Providence twice, that those losses, especially our home loss, would loom large. We'd be 9-3 right now and needing only one win to seal the season. I hope that they play with urgency tonight and we have "good Josh" instead of "bad Josh", and DSR is on. We need a good performance from our freshman too, especially Tre and Ike. We have to get a good lead early and put pressure on them. They seem to fold at end of games when there's pressure. Go Hoyas!!

[Big Dog]

Feb 10, 2015 9:40:44 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

We went from a team that was competing for 1st and 2nd place in the BE to discussing the least we need to do to make the NCAA tourney. Sigh. That's Georgetown basketball, I guess.

But were we really competing for 1st and 2nd place, or was that really just a function of the schedule being loaded early with our 4 Marquette/Creighton games?

[Big Dog]

People calling this a "must win" are talking about an emotional "must win." The game as it is only counts as one in the standings and is a road game, so it isn't "must win" by any real standard (recognizing we will have a further bandwagon meltdown if they lose).

The downside of losing is that it will directly impact turnout for those next two (home) games that we really do need to win.

A victory would certainly put many of us at ease and at least temporarily halt the feelings people have (backed mostly be recent history) that a huge collapse is underway.

[TBird41]

Feb 10, 2015 13:08:45 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

People calling this a "must win" are talking about an emotional "must win." The game as it is only counts as one in the standings and is a road game, so it isn't "must win" by any real standard (recognizing we will have a further bandwagon meltdown if they lose).

The downside of losing is that it will directly impact turnout for those next two (home) games that we really do need to win.

A victory would certainly put many of us at ease and at least temporarily halt the feelings people have (backed mostly be recent history) that a huge collapse is underway.

Also goes a long way to halting the flood of "we don't deserve to make the NCAAs" posts which would happen. So that'd be nice.

[grandmahoya]

Feb 10, 2015 13:06:57 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

Feb 10, 2015 9:40:44 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

We went from a team that was competing for 1st and 2nd place in the BE to discussing the least we need to do to make the NCAA tourney. Sigh. That's Georgetown basketball, I guess.

But were we really competing for 1st and 2nd place, or was that really just a function of the schedule being loaded early with our 4 Marquette/Creighton games?

[grandmahoya]

I agree that the first half of the season was really fools gold. These next six games will really be a test, especially Butler on the road. If we get this win tonight, it would definitely set us up for the ten wins we need and take a lot of pressure off.

[Cambridge]

Unfortunately, over the last few years the Prudential Center has been a troubling place to play for the Hoyas. Not as bad of a house of horrors as the Bradley Center...but it has not been a very good place for the Hoyas (or their NY based fans) for the last few years. The Hoyas have only played there four times since I moved to NYC in 2008, and the team has gone 1-3:

January 25, 2009 - Seton Hall prevailed 65-60 over the Greg Monroe led #14 Georgetown Hoyas who managed to shoot 3 of 22 from three...that was the third loss in what would turn out to be a soul crushing death march in which the team went 4-10 to finish the season and get bounced in the first round of the NIT. That was Seton Hall's first Big East victory of the year making them 10-9 (1-6).

January 18, 2011 - #23 Georgetown squeaked out at 80-75 victory, after being down for most of the game. The Hoyas only took the lead in the last minute and then closed out the game after intentionally fouled Seton Hall when they were up 3 with 5 seconds to go because they were only in the bonus (shooting 1-and-1) and Juju Vaughn promised JTIII he would get the rebound, which he did. Seton hall was 8-11 (2-5) at the time.

February 21, 2012 - #9 Georgetown got blown out 55-73 by Seton Hall who benefitted from an absolutely unconscious Jordan Theodore (29 points and 5-5 from three). The loss knocked us out of contention for one of the Byes to the Quarters in the BET.

February 20, 2014 - Seton Hall completed the season sweep of the Hoyas for the first time in a decade, blowing them out 82-67. To make matters worse for the New York based fans, this was less than a week after we watched the team get embarassed by SJU in the Garden 82-60. Those two blowouts ended what had been a pretty respectable four game win streak over Michigan State, DePaul, Butler and Providence that actually had people talking about the possibility that the team might make the NCAAs. The roadtrip to the tristate area effectively ended that talk.