Statistical Discussion

[Buckets]

Spurred on by (1) the recent lineup threads, (2) the crushing realization that Hoya Prospectus is not coming back from the dead, (3) discussions about three-point defense, (4) my recently renewed subscription to KenPom and discovery of how much he expanded the site -- I think it's time to have a thread for stat-based discussion. For now, defense, because the initial point of this was mostly to address (3) above.

In an attempt to normalize across years (i.e. eliminate variations in non-conference SOS) and because it was all KenPom had, these are based on conference-only stats. To normalize across categories, I'm using standard deviations above or below the sample mean for that year (e.g. Hoyas conference Defensive Efficiency so far in conference is 101.6, conference average is 105.8 with a standard deviation of 7.0, so the Hoyas are .60 standard deviations below the mean). Since this is defense, negative is mostly good, except for blocks and steals.

	DE	eFg	TO	OR	FTR	2P	3P	Blk	Stl
2005	0.56	-0.22	0.10	0.69	0.71	-0.33	0.20	-0.05	-0.01
2006	-0.76	-0.18	0.37	-0.85	-0.88	0.89	-1.30	-0.71	0.41
2007	-0.79	-0.98	0.28	0.74	-1.32	-0.77	-0.82	1.27	-0.13
2008	-1.76	-2.33	0.10	-0.15	0.41	-1.92	-1.71	0.96	0.56
2009	-0.17	-0.08	0.89	0.54	0.67	0.13	-0.40	-0.32	1.00
2010	-0.43	0.07	0.05	-0.72	-0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.21	-0.03
2011	0.01	-0.89	-1.03	0.28	0.03	-0.69	-0.72	0.32	-0.92
2012	-1.16	-1.19	-0.13	-1.40	0.79	-0.92	-1.18	0.80	-0.44
2013	-1.21	-1.48	0.55	-0.25	0.32	-1.04	-1.33	-0.13	0.48
2014	0.11	-0.66	-0.45	0.80	1.47	-0.71	-0.08	0.82	-0.04
2015	-0.60	-1.28	-0.10	0.14	1.08	-1.58	-0.49	1.68	0.59
2005-14	-0.56	-0.79	0.07	-0.03	0.21	-0.53	-0.74	0.32	0.09
2009-14	-0.48	-0.71	-0.02	-0.13	0.54	-0.52	-0.62	0.28	0.01
2012-14	-0.76	-1.11	-0.01	-0.28	0.86	-0.89	-0.86	0.50	0.00

I will leave most of this open for discussion but note that the Hoyas DE dropped from what I think was -0.45 to -0.60 between yesterday afternoon and this morning as a result of the three games last night without the Hoyas even playing.  Four of our five conference games have also been against the bottom four in the league in offensive efficiency so it doesn't get any easier from here.

[HometownHoya]

Yay stats, thanks Buckets!!

[SFHoya99]

So, ummm, about that fouling.

It's funny, for all the criticism that floats around Thompson, that's the one that probably has the most legs for me right now -- the fact that this team cannot seem to adjust to the new rules. On one hand, it is mostly certain select players. On the hand, this seems a coachable thing -- it's actually the players who should be better defenders who are the problem for the most part -- Trawick, Hopkins, Bowen and Smith, who maybe shouldn't be a surprise given the weight.

On TO Rate, positive is good, right?

[FLHoya]

Jan 15, 2015 11:12:25 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

So, ummm, about that fouling.

It's funny, for all the criticism that floats around Thompson, that's the one that probably has the most legs for me right now -- the fact that this team cannot seem to adjust to the new rules. On one hand, it is mostly certain select players. On the hand, this seems a coachable thing -- it's actually the players who should be better defenders who are the problem for the most part -- Trawick, Hopkins, Bowen and Smith, who maybe shouldn't be a surprise given the weight.

On TO Rate, positive is good, right?

I'll be curious next season, when all four of those players have graduated, how our foul rate looks. I've wondered the past two years whether the high foul rate is just a function of certain players who are heavily foul prone for various reasons (Smith's size, Jabril's over-aggressiveness, Mikael doing Mikael things) and may have less (but not nothing!) to do with scheme. If you add relatively foul prone Lubick and Ayegba, last year was a cascade of awful D. Does that change any when we transition to a new cycle of players? I guess for one thing it's contingent on the freshmen class improving their D--though they right now don't so much foul people as struggle to stay in front/follow on rotations.

[Cambridge]

Jan 15, 2015 12:23:13 GMT -5 FLHoya said:

Jan 15, 2015 11:12:25 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

So, ummm, about that fouling.

It's funny, for all the criticism that floats around Thompson, that's the one that probably has the most legs for me right now -- the fact that this team cannot seem to adjust to the new rules. On one hand, it is mostly certain select players. On the hand, this seems a coachable thing -- it's actually the players who should be better defenders who are the problem for the most part -- Trawick, Hopkins, Bowen and Smith, who maybe shouldn't be a surprise given the weight.

On TO Rate, positive is good, right?

I'll be curious next season, when all four of those players have graduated, how our foul rate looks. I've wondered the past two years whether the high foul rate is just a function of certain players who are heavily foul prone for various reasons (Smith's size, Jabril's over-aggressiveness, Mikael doing Mikael things) and may have less (but not nothing!) to do with scheme. If you add relatively foul prone Lubick and Ayegba, last year was a cascade of awful D. Does that change any when we transition to a new cycle of players? I guess for one thing it's contingent on the freshmen class improving their D--though they right now don't so much foul people as struggle to stay in front/follow on rotations.

Fouls committed over 40 rates and the fouls draw over 40 rates for the team (per kenpom):

Hayes: 7.0 and 2.8
Smith: 6.2 and 6.4
Hopkins: 6.2 and 3.8
Trawick: 4.5 and 3.7
Bowen: 4.2 and 3.6
White: 3.4 and 3.0
Cameron: 3.0 and 3.4
Campbell: 2.9 and 2.0
Copeland: 2.6 and 3.0
DSR: 2.4 and 5.1
Peak: 2.0 and 4.0

To provide some perspective, here are the FC/40 and FD/40 from the past for the highest usage players on the team for each year:

Porter (2013): 2.2 and 4.9
Sims (2012): 4.0 and 5.9
Freeman (2011): 2.1 and 3.8
Wright (2011): 2.4 and 4.3
Monroe (2010): 3.0 and 5.8
Summers (2009): 3.6 and 4.7
Hibbert (2008): 4.1 and 5.2
Green (2007): 3.0 and 4.1
Hibbert (2007): 4.2 and 5.1

[dungeon ball]

So could be a personnel or a position thing I guess, although after 4 years with Hopkins and Trawick, it definitely feels like something that could've been coached better. It seems like the mantra is "no easy shots," which I get, but sometimes it's just better to play good position D and if they make a shot, tip your hat. That said, whenever Hop or Josh foul on a shot and go to the bench, it always seems like Othella is telling them, "just keep your hands up." There was one possession against DePaul where DSR got caught on a switch down low, and just kept his arms up, and the player missed the shot. Even though the miss was probably just fortunate, I wish our big men could execute that better, even if it meant giving up a couple buckets a game. Especially Smith.

[rockhoya]

Jan 15, 2015 12:47:46 GMT -5 dungeon ball said:

So could be a personnel or a position thing I guess, although after 4 years with Hopkins and Trawick, it definitely feels like something that could've been coached better. It seems like the mantra is "no easy shots," which I get, but sometimes it's just better to play good position D and if they make a shot, tip your hat. That said, whenever Hop or Josh foul on a shot and go to the bench, it always seems like Othella is telling them, "just keep your hands up." There was one possession against DePaul where DSR got caught on a switch down low, and just kept his arms up, and the player missed the shot. Even though the miss was probably just fortunate, I wish our big men could execute that better, even if it meant giving up a couple buckets a game. Especially Smith.

That DSR defensive play that you were alluding to was more than just being fortunate, he was in good position and at his weight and center of gravity it made sense that #4 couldn't move him to get a better angle. That's why I get so frustrated with Josh sometimes because he doesn't even need to move his feet or arms to force tough shots if he's paying attention to detail.

[GIGAFAN99]

Jan 15, 2015 12:47:46 GMT -5 dungeon ball said:

So could be a personnel or a position thing I guess, although after 4 years with Hopkins and Trawick, it definitely feels like something that could've been coached better. It seems like the mantra is "no easy shots," which I get, but sometimes it's just better to play good position D and if they make a shot, tip your hat. That said, whenever Hop or Josh foul on a shot and go to the bench, it always seems like Othella is telling them, "just keep your hands up." There was one possession against DePaul where DSR got caught on a switch down low, and just kept his arms up, and the player missed the shot. Even though the miss was probably just fortunate, I wish our big men could execute that better, even if it meant giving up a couple buckets a game. Especially Smith.

Agreed. We equate "tough d" with "contesting at all costs." I think it's one thing keeping Hop's minutes alive for example. It's more important to show he's being aggressive by getting blocks even though he's giving up points by committing fouls. We haven't caught on that occasionally you have to let a guy take a tough shot (especially a 2-pt shot) rather than two unguarded shots at the line. That's the most frustrating part of our defense.

[njhoya78]

Thanks for your hard work, buckets.

[Locker]

Aside from the negative impact on our effectiveness and results, all the fouling makes our games so much tougher to watch. So many halves that drag on forever because we've put the other team in the bonus with double digit minutes remaining. I miss the classic JT3 teams that would consistently finish games in an hour and 45 minutes.

[Buckets]

One thing that I thought was interesting in putting this together is that people generally think of defense as a team effort, but two of the three standout seasons (2008 and 2013, with 2012 being the third) come in the last seasons of the two really standout disruptive defensive players of the last decade in Hibbert and Porter. The 2012 team was one of our few good defensive rebounding teams with a team effort from four good but not great rebounders between 15.4-18.4% DR in Sims, Porter, Lubick, and Hollis.

Those 2008 and 2013 teams I think provide a good contrast to this team. There's certainly no one with anywhere near the impact on the defensive end as Hibbert or Porter. Depending on your definition of "plus" and opinion of certain divisive senior bigs on this squad, you could argue there's no one who's even a plus defender.

My theory (which will probably completely derail the stats-based discussion but hopefully we can come back to that after the next game) is that this is one of the problems for this team causing the high fouling rate on the defensive end (in addition to the aforementioned issue of certain personnel who haven't adapted to the rule changes that well). I read an article earlier this month about the Arizona Cardinals and how demoralizing it is to play defense for such a terrible quarterback and how you start trying to do too much individually to make plays on the defensive end rather than just sticking to your assignment in a team concept. In this analogy, the disruptive defender. Without a definite plus defender, we have a lot of guys gambling, reaching, etc. to try to make plays they shouldn't on the defensive end, leading to fouls.

[Buckets]

On the eve of senior day, I wanted to update this table:

	DE	eFg	TO	OR	FTR	2P	3P	Blk	Stl
2005	0.56	-0.22	0.10	0.69	0.71	-0.33	0.20	-0.05	-0.01
2006	-0.76	-0.18	0.37	-0.85	-0.88	0.89	-1.30	-0.71	0.41
2007	-0.79	-0.98	0.28	0.74	-1.32	-0.77	-0.82	1.27	-0.13
2008	-1.76	-2.33	0.10	-0.15	0.41	-1.92	-1.71	0.96	0.56
2009	-0.17	-0.08	0.89	0.54	0.67	0.13	-0.40	-0.32	1.00
2010	-0.43	0.07	0.05	-0.72	-0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.21	-0.03
2011	0.01	-0.89	-1.03	0.28	0.03	-0.69	-0.72	0.32	-0.92
2012	-1.16	-1.19	-0.13	-1.40	0.79	-0.92	-1.18	0.80	-0.44
2013	-1.21	-1.48	0.55	-0.25	0.32	-1.04	-1.33	-0.13	0.48
2014	0.11	-0.66	-0.45	0.80	1.47	-0.71	-0.08	0.82	-0.04
2015	-1.27	-1.56	0.83	-0.42	1.27	-1.71	0.73	1.36	1.04
2005-14	-0.56	-0.79	0.07	-0.03	0.21	-0.53	-0.74	0.32	0.09
2009-14	-0.48	-0.71	-0.02	-0.13	0.54	-0.52	-0.62	0.28	0.01
2012-14	-0.76	-1.11	-0.01	-0.28	0.86	-0.89	-0.86	0.50	0.00

Our raw DE in conference games does not approach the 2013 team (98.8 vs. 91.6). But the conference efficiency is much higher (104.7 vs. 100.0) and has a lower standard deviation (4.7 vs. 6.9). So the metric I chose to normalize across time and category is potentially a little misleading in this regard, but that's what you get for trying to compare across time and categories.

Also, a comparison of where we were through 1/15 and where we are now:

	DE	eFg	TO	OR	FTR	2P	3P	Blk	Stl
Then	-0.60	-1.28	-0.10	0.14	1.08	-1.58	-0.49	1.68	0.59
Now	-1.27	-1.56	0.83	-0.42	1.27	-1.71	0.73	1.36	1.04

Our rebounding improved a lot. When I first posted this, Copeland's career high in rebounds was 4. He took some criticism for his rebounding; in the 12 games since he is averaging 6.3 and has at least 6 in 10 of 12 games.

Our turnover and steal percentages are also much better, and this generally hasn't been our MO on defense. DSR took a fair amount of criticism for his defense for two years but his steal percentage is sixth in the conference. Given his positioning, instincts, and lack of mental lapses on defense, I think he's probably our best defender at the guard spot right now.

Our defensive efficiency is much better. Hopkins took a lot of criticism for pretty much everything for three and a half years. His block percentage is 4th in the conference. His mobility and understanding on defense helps him cover for a lot of wings who have a tendency to be out of position or get blown by. Our 2-point defense is at 41.2%; it was 41.4% in Roy's senior year and no team has posted better in Big East play than 41.1% since 2008. Stated another way, we have a good shot tomorrow at posting the best 2-point defense in Big East play in the last eight seasons. Hopkins is the anchor of this defense. Thank you, Mikael.

[TBird41]

It'd be interesting to see how what the difference in our 2 pt defense is when we Smith at center over Hopkins. Presumably its still really good, otherwise we wouldn't have such a good 2 pt defense.

Thanks for putting this together Buckets