GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 22, 2005 13:08:02 GMT -5
Alright so I'm trying to be rational about gambling on this game. As always when I need calm rational thinking, I come to the Hoyatalk board and ask for advice.
So we're 10-point favorites. I cannot envision a scenario where we win this game by single digits. Am I just an overzealous fan or is this easy money and somehow Vegas doesn't realize that Fullerton is playing with basically 7 short players at a sold out McDonough?
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SirSaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 747
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Post by SirSaxa on Mar 22, 2005 13:12:19 GMT -5
As always when I need calm rational thinking, I come to the Hoyatalk board and ask for advice. But of course! Nothing but calm rational thinking on this board. That's what it's known for! Meanwhile, I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED to hear that gambling is associated with this board!
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,737
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 22, 2005 13:27:33 GMT -5
Pomeroy has us as 5 point favorites at a neutral site.
This includes all of CSF's season. So it probably underrates them a bit because they are on a hot streak. But it includes games with Ralphy Holmes, so it probably overrates them moreso.
The standard home court is +4. Adjust for your feelings on McDonough.
My feeling is Holmes is worth more than 1 point. And McD might be worth a point or two more than 4. Minus 10 seems to be a good bet for the Hoyas, even if we rarely blow teams out.
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Post by HoyaAlbany on Mar 22, 2005 13:56:44 GMT -5
Take it to the bank, Giga!
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Post by FromTheBeginning on Mar 22, 2005 14:09:47 GMT -5
"Here are your winnings, sir" "Oh - Thank You"
Be careful - as perfectly aligned as everything seems, keep in mind CSF averages 75 points a game and we have only scored 75 four times all year.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,737
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 22, 2005 14:25:21 GMT -5
From Kenpom.com:
Pace: GU 60.8 Possessions, CSF 71.9 Possessions (Adj)
Who's going to set the pace? Will we meet in the middle? CSF is 33rd in the nation.
Offensive Efficiency (Raw): GU 105.0 Pts per 100 Possessions, CSF 105.3 Pts per 100 Poss
Offensive Efficiency (Adj): GU 109.9, CSF 106.1
GU's pt deficiency is entirely due to pace. Once you adjust for competition, GU has been the better offense.
Defensive Efficiency (Raw): GU 99.4, CSF 100.5
Defensive Efficiency (Adj): GU 96.3, CSF 99.9
Pretty even before you adjust for competition.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Mar 22, 2005 14:57:53 GMT -5
I think it's important that our guys stick to the game plan. Play good defense and a methodical offense. The thing about McDonough is, it has a lot of energy. Energy can lead to a quick pace and that's bad for us. We have a thin bench and are not suited for a fast paced game. Fullerton would love for us to run with them.
Now keep in mind, a ten point differential in a game that is has 180 points scored is easier to do than in a game where there are only 100 points scored. In once case you'd need to score 52.7% of the points, in the other you'd need to score 55%. So winning by ten in a low scoring game is harder to do.
Anyway, just throwing in my caveat of the point spread. I wouldn't throw too much on the Hoyas.
(But I like under 134)
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 22, 2005 15:01:55 GMT -5
I can understand not wanting to run the whole game, but keep in mind that this CSF team is missing their best player, and five players overall... will only have 3 players on the bench, including one who has seen only ten more minutes of game time than Cornelio.
It is important to play within the system, but this is not one of the games that slowing down the tempo is the best way for us to keep in it.
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SirSaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 747
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Post by SirSaxa on Mar 22, 2005 15:06:53 GMT -5
OUr play in the BET and against BU has been much improved over that end of season slump.
Our team has nothing to lose -- pressure of the NCAA bid is over. And two teams we beat are in the Sweet Sixteen.
And I bet T3 has them pumped about winning the game and striving for the NIT title.
Students, family, friends will all be in attendance, and these kids are going to want to look good.
We are on national TV too.
My guess is GU will come out pumped and ready to go. Jeff Green dominated against BU -- I think he'll do it again.
Let's go HOYAS!!!!
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Mar 22, 2005 15:13:14 GMT -5
I guess what I'm saying is I'd like to see Ashanti, Brandon, and Jeff on the court as much as possible. They can play 35 minutes each if we slow the game down, probably 25-28 minutes each if we try to run. With our bench I'd rather keep those guys in the game.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,438
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Post by lichoya68 on Mar 22, 2005 15:24:46 GMT -5
oh heck this will be close despite no holmes UNLESS the students and fans make it so they cant hear themselves at all and espn sees what mcdonough used to be like and still can be go hoyas beat the titans. ;D
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