Hoyas on Grantland.com again

[kchoya]

Which Ranked NCAA Teams Are Poised to Collapse?[/u][/size]

Excerpts:

So if you're into the jam culture, it's worth checking out this one from Georgetown's Henry Sims on Wednesday night. It's rare to see a dunk that definitive at the college level, and if intimidating displays of power are your thing, you'll want to take a trip to Sims City. (Came up with it on my own, don't steal it.)

[...]

No. 14 Georgetown took down UConn 58-44 in one of the Huskies' worst shooting performances ever. The visitors finished 18-of-60 from the field, and an abysmal 2-of-20 from 3. Their offensive efficiency, which is a measure of how many points they'd score in 100 possessions, was 68.6. For comparison's sake, the Division I average is 100.3, and UConn's usual average is 110.1. Ken Pomeroy's single-game numbers go back to 2003, and in that time UConn hasn't even approached a number as low as 68.6. In other words, they made a little bit of the wrong kind of history Wednesday.

[...]

As you might have guessed from the description above, I'm not convinced that the dark days have passed for the Hoyas. I've admired their grit from the start, and I don't doubt that they're immune from an emotional collapse, but the recent offensive dry spell and a slate of road games doesn't bode well for their prospects. Plus, if you look at the last three seasons, John Thompson III's teams have a history of fading near the end. I hope I'm wrong, but I think a similar fate awaits this year's team.

[thebin]

I'm depressed how much of that feels right to me.

[wahoohoya]

Meh. We're going to keep getting this type of press until we reverse the trend (and win a couple of games in the tournament). I see as much a possibility for upside/peaking as I do for stumbling across the finish line. We'll see what happens. Every game is huge from this point on.

And I think it's good for the players that this seems to be a common theme in the press - should help them maintain focus and they can play with a bit of a chip on their shoulders.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

[GUJook97]

Yeah, I am not sure what they mean by collapse. There is nothing to suggest we will lose 5 out of the last 8 games, even that makes us a 20 win, 10 win BE team. Sure, we might lose to Syracuse and Marquette, and to a desperate ND team, but even that is only 3 losses. Where are the collapse losses coming from?

[guru]

Feb 3, 2012 10:47:19 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

Careful. According to the Hoyatalk Groupthink, THERE IS NO TREND of playing poorly down the stretch.

[rpn6]

As I was reading the description of Fla St and UVA jumped out to me as a perfect example of us. I would say that we are more scary than both of those teams but who am I to judge. Also we wont be playing a 1 seed in the sweet sixteen(knock on wood). 3 seed

[BubbleVisionBiff]

I don't have any statistical basis for comparison, but I think to the extent there is a "swoon," I feel like it is because we are integrating so many new parts into the offense. It takes time to learn how to read each other as you are reading the defense, at the same time opponents in the conference are using their relative familiarity with the sets to slow us down.

But we are playing better defense this year, and people who aren't performing are getting yanked because there are options on the roster. I think these three factors make this year different. It might not be pretty, but I think we will continue to fight and claw. And as Greg, Otto, Jabril and Mikael continue to figure things out, it could be special.

My main worry is Jason. As others have noted, his defense has really (finally?) improved, but I wonder how much chasing Lamb, Carter, etc. around takes out of his offense. We have to have more scoring out of the backcourt, whether it is Markel getting back into a groove and/or Greg finishing stronger and/or Jabril getting better all around on that end.

And Henry, look at what you can do with the ball. Please protect it!

[GIGAFAN99]

We are the best defense in the Big East. There will be no swoon like past years.

[williambraskyiii]

Feb 3, 2012 10:47:19 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

Of course you would, Positive Prognosis. But that's who you are, an unabashed homer, and I respect that.

[Hoyaholic]

Feb 3, 2012 11:10:46 GMT -5 BubbleVisionBiff said:

My main worry is Jason. As others have noted, his defense has really (finally?) improved, but I wonder how much chasing Lamb, Carter, etc. around takes out of his offense. We have to have more scoring out of the backcourt, whether it is Markel getting back into a groove and/or Greg finishing stronger and/or Jabril getting better all around on that end.

Speaking of Jason's defense, I'd love to know how many times this year he has single-handedly broken up a fast break off a GU turnover by hustling back and preventing an otherwise breakaway layup. He seems to do it at least once a game (which speaks to the quality of our perimeter passing as well).

Considering that many / most of our BE games have come down to the last few possessions, it is not an overstatement to say that his hustle on those plays has probably saved a game or two along the way.

[SFHoya99]

Feb 3, 2012 10:54:39 GMT -5 guru said:

Feb 3, 2012 10:47:19 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

Careful. According to the Hoyatalk Groupthink, THERE IS NO TREND of playing poorly down the stretch.

Are you really using Grantland as a backing source? Their college hoops writers are terrible -- Titus is painful to read even if he knows basketball and Shane Ryan, while a decent writer, has exactly the hoops knowledge you'd expect of a Dookie who graduated in like 2004. He doesn't know any basketball before Jay Williams and seem to follow basketball like Dick Vitale.

[williambraskyiii]

I need to see a good offensive game from the Hoyas to make me feel better...one where everything is clicking and it just doesn't seem like a disjointed mess most of the time. Good God Henry, realize that you have such an incredible amount of innate ability: 6'10-6'11, silky jumper out to 20 ft, quickness, agility, hops...keep putting the ball in the hoop kid, you are the key to making this offense tick.

[WilsonBlvdHoya]

Feb 3, 2012 10:54:39 GMT -5 guru said:

Feb 3, 2012 10:47:19 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

Careful. According to the Hoyatalk Groupthink, THERE IS NO TREND of playing poorly down the stretch.

Oh there's definitely a trend of profound underachievement late season in the last four seasons. That cannot be factually denied.

What also can't be factually denied are the Chicken Littles on the board who scream out a trend approaching when the team gets down double digits in games (often they cluck as early as the first half). Then the team comes back to win and there's no acknowledgement of their polyannaish and myopic ways.

What doesn't exist, except in the overactive minds of some posters, is group-think on the board (other than admittance that all of us are frustrated at woeful finishes over the last four seasons and that there ought to be more productive ways of encouraging the team to perform to its best other than ridiculously and prematurely accusing them of a collapse which hasn't yet occurred!!!).

Guru, let's agree to assess this year's trends and the success of this season when the season is actually over?!??! Capische?

[centercourt400s]

As Giggafan indicated there won't be a swoon because this year's squad plays defense and plays it well. That will keep us in games even when the offense is sputtering and will give us a good chance to win those games. Last year's team depended on the offense running smoothly to win and when Wright went down that was not possible.

[cturner]

The general theme of the article has merit but I take issue with the reference to Pittsburgh as "hapless". They are anything but at this point as their win at W. Virginia demonstrated. We lost to a good team but we also played very poorly. During the early minutes of the Conn game I thought we had the same defensive desease that plagued us against Pitt but fortunately we tighted up a bit and Conn self destructed. Our offensive percentages improved in the Conn game but I am wondering whether the trend of playing significant minutes with only one true guard on court will continue. Guards played 57 minutes against Conn. This puts an even bigger load on Clark and may be contributing to some of the disorganized look of our offense at times.

[seaweed]

Feb 3, 2012 11:42:03 GMT -5 williambraskyiii said:

Feb 3, 2012 10:47:19 GMT -5 HoyaSinceBirth said:

I would put us in the fairly secure category and lump us in with Virginia and Florida St:
"Both are big, physical teams who play great defense (eighth and fifth in the country, respectively) and have proven that they can compete with top 10-caliber teams. Both are exactly the kind of club that will terrify a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. And they're nearly immune to a late collapse because they can still win games when they don't shoot well. The only reason they're in this category is because the defensive style tends to produce close games against good and bad competition. Only a string of bad luck can derail them."

That could easily describe us 10th defensively and played Kansas down to the wire and have beaten as many ranked teams as anyone.

Of course you would, Positive Prognosis. But that's who you are, an unabashed homer, and I respect that.

in fairness, that sounds exactly like us and this year's "defensive style" is precisely what differentiates us from past years.

[kchoya]

I think the team goes through a February swoon because someone on this board is always harping about FEBRAURY!!! I blame that person.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Even if there was a swoon in past years, it's not really fair to automatically assume this team will do the same thing. The team is substantially different this year and I am hoping that will yield substantially better results, starting with a good finish to the season and then a great Big East tournament.

I don't see any benefit to predicting a swoon in February when it's February 2 and we're 1-0 in the month. I realize writers are paid to gin up this stuff, but HoyaTalk posters aren't.

[guru]

Feb 3, 2012 11:51:24 GMT -5 WilsonBlvdHoya said:

Feb 3, 2012 10:54:39 GMT -5 guru said:

Careful. According to the Hoyatalk Groupthink, THERE IS NO TREND of playing poorly down the stretch.

Oh there's definitely a trend of profound underachievement late season in the last four seasons. That cannot be factually denied.

What also can't be factually denied are the Chicken Littles on the board who scream out a trend approaching when the team gets down double digits in games (often they cluck as early as the first half). Then the team comes back to win and there's no acknowledgement of their polyannaish and myopic ways.

What doesn't exist, except in the overactive minds of some posters, is group-think on the board (other than admittance that all of us are frustrated at woeful finishes over the last four seasons and that there ought to be more productive ways of encouraging the team to perform to its best other than ridiculously and prematurely accusing them of a collapse which hasn't yet occurred!!!).

Guru, let's agree to assess this year's trends and the success of this season when the season is actually over?!??! Capische?

Everything except capische