Post by royski on Dec 29, 2011 15:38:49 GMT -5
So this team is pretty good. I think we can all agree on that at this point. What I want to figure out is WHY we're good, beyond the normal platitudes about length, heart and shooting. So to do that, I'm going to analyze our advanced stats, first as a team, and then on the individual player level.
THE TEAM
Kenpom believes that this Hoyas team is the 14th best in the country. This is significantly better than last year's team (ranked #40) and is comparable to the 2010 team, which was ranked 13th. For reference, the 07 and 08 teams were much better than this one, ranked 5th and 7th respectively. As a fan, this seems pretty accurate to me.
So what makes this team good? The answer, on the most simplistic level is they're good at both offense (18th nationally) and defense (17th nationally). WHY they're good at both things is actually pretty simple and has become something of the patented JTIII formula for success. We make shots at a high rate (34th eFG%) and we force misses at a high rate (27th). That is the heart of our team success, although there is an additional contributing factor on both offense and defense. Offensively, this team has been very good at avoiding turnovers (36th) and decent at offensive rebounding (96th). All of that more than makes up for being merely mediocre at getting to the line.
Defensively, the additional factor is that we're a good rebounding team (61st). But let's break down the defensive performance a little further. We're very good at defending the 3 point line (20th) and good at blocking shots (53rd). Offensively, we just make shots from everywhere. 2's (47th), 3's (59th) and FT's (37th).
So that's what makes us go as a team, but what is happening at the player level?
THE PLAYERS
The five guys who get the most minutes on this team (Clark, Hollis, Porter, Starks and Sims, in that order) are all top 430 players nationally in efficiency, which is pretty awesome. The rest of the squad doesn't grade out as well (with the notable exception of Jabril, who has been excellent but in limited minutes) but that's alright since they're not on the floor as much, and none of them grade out terribly except Whittington.
JASON CLARK
While the most frequent shooter on the team when on the court race is close between Clark, Sims and Hollis, Jason is our most frequent shooter. Combined with playing the most minutes on the team, his lead is significant. This is good for the Hoyas because Jason's a good shooter (163rd in TS%, anything better than 300 should be considered very good given the number of players in college bball.) Jason is also great at getting steals (109th) and very solid at both avoiding committing fouls (445th) while also drawing them (440th) which is a rare combination. All of that said, Jason is the least efficient of our "starters", but remains very valuable because he's our first scoring option and he does that with efficiency while also contributing on the defensive end by forcing turnovers.
MARKEL STARKS
Starks obviously does not look to score as much as Clark, but that doesn't mean he's not valuable by any stretch. While he shoots less frequently, there is one thing that makes Markel special at this point and that is his shooting. He is 116th in TS%, a number sure to rise when he starts knocking down his free throws, where he's inexplicably shooting 60%. He is an eye-poppingly bad rebounder, but we don't really ask that of him, so I don't consider it a major issue. Overall, he's more efficient than Clark, but less valuable because of his smaller role within the offense.
OTTO PORTER
Porter is special. You didn't need me to tell you that. But he also is prone to disappear. His usage rate (how often the play runs through a guy, basically) is the lowest of any of the "starters", but what he does when the ball IS in his hands is pretty awesome. His overall o-rating is 107th, 2nd best on the team only behind the insanely efficient Hollis Thompson. How does he do it? HAPPY TO TELL YOU! Porter is kinda good at everything. Well, not literally everything, but you get the point. When he shoots the ball, it often goes in as long as it's not a 3. (shooting .625 from 2 this season). He's a very good defensive rebounder, 2nd best on the team behind Lubick and 271st nationally. He basically NEVER turns the ball over, ranking a sizzling 75th nationally on that metric. He also blocks shots (379th) gets steals (409th) and avoids fouling better than anyone on the squad (342nd). So yea, the kid can ball. He's clearly the most efficient freshman to play for JTIII, and that includes Jeff Green and Austin Freeman.
HOLLIS THOMPSON
Yea, this guy's awesome. Really awesome actually. 37th nationally in O-rating awesome. He does this through a few different things. He's a very good defensive rebounder (388th), very rarely turns the ball over (138th) and avoids committing fouls (458th). Of course, that's all window dressing for what makes Hollis an elite player, and that is his sizzling shooting (53rd TS%). That 53rd mark is particularly nuts when you realize that he's doing it against good defenses, not a SWAC schedule. The traditional numbers show the shooting prowess as well, particularly that .478 from 3.
HENRY SIMS
This is it. The reason we're going to be 10th nationally, instead of 10th in the Big East. Kenpom defines someone who uses 28% or more of his team's possessions when he's on the floor as a "go-to guy". Henry Sims, at 28.7% is a go-to guy, something that JTIII has never had before (although Monroe was very close his sophomore year.) A long story short, when a guy is using up that much of your offense, you'll go as he goes. Lucky for us, and improbable as it might be, Sims has been GREAT. According to Kenpom, there are roughly 120 "go-to guys" in the country. Among them, Sims ranks 5th in efficiency. That's right, 5th! How is he doing it? Glad you asked! Sims shoots it alright, sure, but that's not really what's going on here. What is happening is a very strong rebounder both offensively (480th) and defensively (352nd) who is very good at drawing fouls (148th) and great at blocking shots (76th) and DROPPING DIMES (74th). In fact, Sims is almost 3 times as likely to get an assist on a given possession as Markel Starks! He is arguably the best passing big man in the nation. And that's what's been making this team go.
So there you have it, a statistical analysis of why this team is rolling. Hope you enjoy it, and have at it in the comments!
THE TEAM
Kenpom believes that this Hoyas team is the 14th best in the country. This is significantly better than last year's team (ranked #40) and is comparable to the 2010 team, which was ranked 13th. For reference, the 07 and 08 teams were much better than this one, ranked 5th and 7th respectively. As a fan, this seems pretty accurate to me.
So what makes this team good? The answer, on the most simplistic level is they're good at both offense (18th nationally) and defense (17th nationally). WHY they're good at both things is actually pretty simple and has become something of the patented JTIII formula for success. We make shots at a high rate (34th eFG%) and we force misses at a high rate (27th). That is the heart of our team success, although there is an additional contributing factor on both offense and defense. Offensively, this team has been very good at avoiding turnovers (36th) and decent at offensive rebounding (96th). All of that more than makes up for being merely mediocre at getting to the line.
Defensively, the additional factor is that we're a good rebounding team (61st). But let's break down the defensive performance a little further. We're very good at defending the 3 point line (20th) and good at blocking shots (53rd). Offensively, we just make shots from everywhere. 2's (47th), 3's (59th) and FT's (37th).
So that's what makes us go as a team, but what is happening at the player level?
THE PLAYERS
The five guys who get the most minutes on this team (Clark, Hollis, Porter, Starks and Sims, in that order) are all top 430 players nationally in efficiency, which is pretty awesome. The rest of the squad doesn't grade out as well (with the notable exception of Jabril, who has been excellent but in limited minutes) but that's alright since they're not on the floor as much, and none of them grade out terribly except Whittington.
JASON CLARK
While the most frequent shooter on the team when on the court race is close between Clark, Sims and Hollis, Jason is our most frequent shooter. Combined with playing the most minutes on the team, his lead is significant. This is good for the Hoyas because Jason's a good shooter (163rd in TS%, anything better than 300 should be considered very good given the number of players in college bball.) Jason is also great at getting steals (109th) and very solid at both avoiding committing fouls (445th) while also drawing them (440th) which is a rare combination. All of that said, Jason is the least efficient of our "starters", but remains very valuable because he's our first scoring option and he does that with efficiency while also contributing on the defensive end by forcing turnovers.
MARKEL STARKS
Starks obviously does not look to score as much as Clark, but that doesn't mean he's not valuable by any stretch. While he shoots less frequently, there is one thing that makes Markel special at this point and that is his shooting. He is 116th in TS%, a number sure to rise when he starts knocking down his free throws, where he's inexplicably shooting 60%. He is an eye-poppingly bad rebounder, but we don't really ask that of him, so I don't consider it a major issue. Overall, he's more efficient than Clark, but less valuable because of his smaller role within the offense.
OTTO PORTER
Porter is special. You didn't need me to tell you that. But he also is prone to disappear. His usage rate (how often the play runs through a guy, basically) is the lowest of any of the "starters", but what he does when the ball IS in his hands is pretty awesome. His overall o-rating is 107th, 2nd best on the team only behind the insanely efficient Hollis Thompson. How does he do it? HAPPY TO TELL YOU! Porter is kinda good at everything. Well, not literally everything, but you get the point. When he shoots the ball, it often goes in as long as it's not a 3. (shooting .625 from 2 this season). He's a very good defensive rebounder, 2nd best on the team behind Lubick and 271st nationally. He basically NEVER turns the ball over, ranking a sizzling 75th nationally on that metric. He also blocks shots (379th) gets steals (409th) and avoids fouling better than anyone on the squad (342nd). So yea, the kid can ball. He's clearly the most efficient freshman to play for JTIII, and that includes Jeff Green and Austin Freeman.
HOLLIS THOMPSON
Yea, this guy's awesome. Really awesome actually. 37th nationally in O-rating awesome. He does this through a few different things. He's a very good defensive rebounder (388th), very rarely turns the ball over (138th) and avoids committing fouls (458th). Of course, that's all window dressing for what makes Hollis an elite player, and that is his sizzling shooting (53rd TS%). That 53rd mark is particularly nuts when you realize that he's doing it against good defenses, not a SWAC schedule. The traditional numbers show the shooting prowess as well, particularly that .478 from 3.
HENRY SIMS
This is it. The reason we're going to be 10th nationally, instead of 10th in the Big East. Kenpom defines someone who uses 28% or more of his team's possessions when he's on the floor as a "go-to guy". Henry Sims, at 28.7% is a go-to guy, something that JTIII has never had before (although Monroe was very close his sophomore year.) A long story short, when a guy is using up that much of your offense, you'll go as he goes. Lucky for us, and improbable as it might be, Sims has been GREAT. According to Kenpom, there are roughly 120 "go-to guys" in the country. Among them, Sims ranks 5th in efficiency. That's right, 5th! How is he doing it? Glad you asked! Sims shoots it alright, sure, but that's not really what's going on here. What is happening is a very strong rebounder both offensively (480th) and defensively (352nd) who is very good at drawing fouls (148th) and great at blocking shots (76th) and DROPPING DIMES (74th). In fact, Sims is almost 3 times as likely to get an assist on a given possession as Markel Starks! He is arguably the best passing big man in the nation. And that's what's been making this team go.
So there you have it, a statistical analysis of why this team is rolling. Hope you enjoy it, and have at it in the comments!
