Big East W-L Thoughts

[NoBoumtjeInTheYaYaRoom]

The Big East conference will be interesting this year because of an unusually weak bottom half of the league. While a 9-9 UCONN team won a 'ship last year. 9-9 could very easily be bubble territory this year.

Looking at Gtowns schedule, there is a real opportunity to go 12-6 without having a single marquee win. Providence (twice), St Johns (Twice), Rutgers, USF, Cinci, @ Depaul, @ Seton Hall, @ WV, Villanova, Notre Dame. There is not a single ranked team in that group or even a single vote received.

One could argue that Marquette and Pitt are "on-par" with us. With UCONN at home certainly being a winnable game.

Having said that, I think this team's youth will have them end up at 11-7. But I find it interesting that based on current rankings/resumes, it would not be beyond the realm to envision 15-3. A man can dream...

[lichoya68]

nineand nine would be fine but ten and eight would be GREAT go hoyas we will see next three games will tell us what the guys are made of G OHOYAS BEAT MEMPHIS

[kghoya]

9-9

[hoyarooter]

Dec 19, 2011 20:52:32 GMT -5 lichoya68 said:

nineand nine would be fine but ten and eight would be GREAT go hoyas we will see next three games will tell us what the guys are made of G OHOYAS BEAT MEMPHIS

11-7 would be heaven
12-6 would put us in the mix (for a high seed)
13-5 saint's alive!
14-4 who could ask for more
15-3 glory be!

[Ranch Dressing]

9-9 should be the bogey for this very young team that is going to be up and down in conference. A win Thursday v. Memphis plus 9-9 gets us in the tourney probably safely.

It is a rare season to win all the games you "should." There is always a couple stinker rotten egg games.

[sleepyjackson21]

If we go 9-9, we're not making the tournament. Our OOC schedule isn't nearly as strong as past seasons and our in conference schedule is much weaker too. Right now we have a rpi of 67 and we have 9 Big East games where our opponent has a rpi greater than 100 and 3 of those are greater than 250 (St John's twice - 267 and Rutgers - 275). Right now we only have 1 top 50 rpi win (Alabama 22) and 1 other top 100 win (Memphis 75). We only have 7 games scheduled with top 50 rpi teams. Last season we played a total of 18 regular season top 50 rpi games and nobody with a rpi greater than 250. This season, as it stands, we will have 6 plus 250 rpi games.

[sleepy]

Dec 19, 2011 23:17:30 GMT -5 sleepyjackson21 said:

If we go 9-9, we're not making the tournament. Our OOC schedule isn't nearly as strong as past seasons and our in conference schedule is much weaker too. Right now we have a rpi of 67 and we have 9 Big East games where our opponent has a rpi greater than 100 and 3 of those are greater than 250 (St John's twice - 267 and Rutgers - 275). Right now we only have 1 top 50 rpi win (Alabama 22) and 1 other top 100 win (Memphis 75). We only have 7 games scheduled with top 50 rpi teams. Last season we played a total of 18 regular season top 50 rpi games and nobody with a rpi greater than 250. This season, as it stands, we will have 6 plus 250 rpi games.

I agree with this. 9-9 probably won't get us into the tournament unless a few of those wins are against elite teams, and even that, with our Big East schedule, may not be enough. So while 9-9 may be a nice realistic goal for this team, I hope no one setting that as their benchmark for this team is also thinking we'll make the NCAA tournament. It probably won't happen without a good BET run if we go 9-9. For this team to be a NCAA tourny lock, I'd say 11-7 or 12-6 is probably necessary, especially if we have one of our late season fade-outs.

[wahoohoya]

Don't we start 3 upperclassmen plus a second year starter? Can't keep playing the young card. Either we are good or we aren't. Who knows at this point. But let's stop pretending 9-9 would be good given our schedule this year.

[kghoya]

Georgetown has under performed in the conference since '08 with better rosters than this one.

Until proven otherwise, it's hard to see them doing much better than 9-9. I'd love to be wrong but those are my thoughts.

I will say this that if they can just avoid some bad losses, with this schedule, they could go better than .500.

[hoyainspirit]

We may have had a "better" roster, but I'm not sure we had a better team. Thus far, Henry and OP are difference makers.

[SaxaCD]

12-6. Although if the team has injuries, it could be 9-9 and posters will blame the coaching.

[bigelephant]

With this team 9-9 would be disappointing. 12-6 would be the tops and would be very glad to get that. But probably it will be somewhere in between like 10-8 or 11-7. BUT you have to factor in Henry, Hollis and Clark - they are really producing so far and our deep bench and our devotion to D (who knew?). There could be some very good surprises - we will just have to wait and see.

[wahoohoya]

Dec 20, 2011 0:09:51 GMT -5 kghoya said:

Georgetown has under performed in the conference since '08 with better rosters than this one.

Until proven otherwise, it's hard to see them doing much better than 9-9. I'd love to be wrong but those are my thoughts.

I will say this that if they can just avoid some bad losses, with this schedule, they could go better than .500.

Perfectly rational and nothing wrong with tempering expectations. I just think the sentiment that 9-9 is a benchmark for a good season is silly (not saying you said that). Personally, I think that would be a mediocre outcome. I'm sure teams like Notre Dame and Villanova would be thrilled with 9-9 this year, but I think that would be underachieving for this group.

Record aside, the biggest thing I want to see (aside from beating Cuse) is the team getting better throughout the season and peaking in February/March. Or put another way, 9-9 could be satisfying depending on how we get there.

[vcjack]

Dec 20, 2011 8:42:46 GMT -5 bigelephant said:

With this team 9-9 would be disappointing. 12-6 would be the tops and would be very glad to get that. But probably it will be somewhere in between like 10-8 or 11-7. BUT you have to factor in Henry, Hollis and Clark - they are really producing so far and our deep bench and our devotion to D (who knew?). There could be some very good surprises - we will just have to wait and see.

I think you are selling the team short if you think 12-6 is the absolute ceiling. I think, based on the great 07-08 regular season, that 15-3 is something of an absolute ceiling. I'll put this team's ceiling at 14-4 with the expected losses @ Louisville, @ Pitt, @ Cuse, and @ Marquette.

We can beat UConn and Marquette at home and we can get a win against WV on the road.

[GUJook97]

Dec 20, 2011 0:09:51 GMT -5 kghoya said:

Georgetown has under performed in the conference since '08 with better rosters than this one.

Until proven otherwise, it's hard to see them doing much better than 9-9. I'd love to be wrong but those are my thoughts.

I will say this that if they can just avoid some bad losses, with this schedule, they could go better than .500.

This is how I feel, too. You can call it pessimistic, but so be it. We went 10-8 the last two season when we had a team that was supposed to be much better. You can say we played a tougher BE slate, but go look at some of the stinkers we threw up. I hope I am wrong.

[Boz]

This thread is depressing.

Call yourselves "realists" all you want.

I will call you Eeyeore.


Enjoy the season. This team will be fun to watch. HOYA SAXA!!


[Thus concludes today's cheer leading session.]

[GUJook97]

Thank you, I will enjoy the season now that you mentioned it. I forgot about that...

[rosslynhoya]

Dec 20, 2011 9:41:51 GMT -5 vcjack said:

Dec 20, 2011 8:42:46 GMT -5 bigelephant said:

With this team 9-9 would be disappointing. 12-6 would be the tops and would be very glad to get that. But probably it will be somewhere in between like 10-8 or 11-7. BUT you have to factor in Henry, Hollis and Clark - they are really producing so far and our deep bench and our devotion to D (who knew?). There could be some very good surprises - we will just have to wait and see.

I think you are selling the team short if you think 12-6 is the absolute ceiling. I think, based on the great 07-08 regular season, that 15-3 is something of an absolute ceiling. I'll put this team's ceiling at 14-4 with the expected losses @ Louisville, @ Pitt, @ Cuse, and @ Marquette.

We can beat UConn and Marquette at home and we can get a win against WV on the road.

And I think we can pick up at least one of those expected road losses, which should offset the nearly inevitable fluffup versus SHU or PC. 14-4 is not unreasonable.

[bigelephant]

Temperation is the word. Plenty of time to get super excited but lets see a little BE before we let it all hang out. Not saying we cant do this, but lets not put too much pressure on the guys. One game at a time.

[Boz]

Dec 20, 2011 10:35:10 GMT -5 bigelephant said:

Temperation is the word. Plenty of time to get super excited but lets see a little BE before we let it all hang out. Not saying we cant do this, but lets not put too much pressure on the guys. One game at a time.

Fair enough, but that cuts both ways: for optimists and pessimists.

I am a big fan of the one game at a time outlook.

I am also a big fan of made up words. ;D


(Also, please do not read into my posts to mean that I hate people who like to make predictions -- along the lines of the "the polls are meaningless, why do we discuss them" people. Knock yourselves out with your predictions, rosy or dire or in the middle. I usually won't comment much, but had to point out this morning that it was really depressing to read. Or I could just be in a bad mood because of the time of year).