Needs-Based Recruiting, as of 11.30.11

[SFHoya99]

Position	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-2016
PG	Starks	Starks	Starks
PG	Clark	Trawick	Trawick	Trawick
SG	Whittington	Whittington	Whittington	Whittington	Smith-Rivera
G	Trawick	Smith-Rivera	Smith-Rivera	Smith-Rivera
/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /
SF	Thompson	Thompson	Porter	Porter
SF	Porter	Porter
/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /
BIG	Sims	Lubick	Lubick	Hopkins	Bolden
BIG	Lubick	Ayegba	Ayegba	Ayegba
BIG	Hopkins	Hopkins	Hopkins	Adams
BIG	Adams	Adams	Adams	Bolden
/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /
UT	Bowen	Bowen	Bowen
UT	Ayegba (Inj)	Bolden	Bolden
UT
UT
/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /
NEEDS	PG, G	PG, C	PG, C	PG (2), SF, BIG	ALL
/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /	/ / / / /
OPEN	1	1	2	5	10

[SFHoya99]

Wow! Things have changed, and I've definitely played a few games here that could play elsewhere.

First, Greg Whittington has played a whole bunch of SG. Then DSR committed to the Hilltop. Suddenly a team looking for some certainty at guard has a whole lot of SGs! Luckily, it seems the Hoyas have been priming Trawick to play some point, which makes room for everyone.

Whittington's move creates a perceived gap at SF, but it's not real. Porter is ideal there and Whittington can swing in easily. With Trawick and DSR at guard, and Greg and Otto there as SF or SF/SG, wing is covered at least for next year. Long term, SF is a need as Otto doesn't seem like a four year guy.

Which leaves the real gap as: Can Jabril really play backup point? Another PG in the next couple of years may be a priority. Markel won't play forty minutes or be here forever, so there's two choices: recruit another point or have combos in DSR and Trawick play the role.

I figure either will work, really.

The other gap isn't as apparent, but it's (possible) at C. PF is locked up with Lubick, Hopkins, some Porter time, and at some point Bolden. Sure, that's not superstar secure (especially since SF is a bit thin so moving Porter may not be a consideration), but I have more confidence there than C.

Adams and Ayegba may end up being a good combo, but who knows? Add in that skill-wise we don't really have post-players and the needs are pretty apparent. I'd love a tall C, a wing and a guard we're confident that can play point over the next few scholarships.

[idhoya]

Troy and baby would seem likely for '13 right now, but Hoyas need a true C imo. Baby has the footwork, hands and low post for it, but he's only 6'8. That'll get you by, but like SF, I'd love a tall five. If not, Baby will do. It would seem with two ships for '13 (w/Hollis leaving) that Troy has to have one of them. I would assume that a PG takes priority over a big, but we still have spring '12 ahead.

[Ranch Dressing]

Even assuming Hollis leaves, if you give schollies to White and Troy, you have no more openings for class of 2013.

[KirbyKeger]

As far as center goes, for some reason, I have a really good feeling about Moses. He has to be doing an awful lot of learning from the bench this season and last season. Maybe he'll pleasantly surprise us. After all, he's a big dude with some serious muscle and decent athletic ability. We forget that we recruited him as the shotblocker we need to patrol the middle.

[Eurostar]

What about centers starting as early as next year? Does anyone think that Moses and Adams are going to be able to split 40min at that spot next year? I think they both have decent ceilings, but neither has sniffed the floor for meaningful minutes so far. I'd love to see Adams get 10+ minutes of run in each of these next few cupcake games, as long as he's healthy.

[gujake]

I think C is by far the biggest need.

Combos can play PG in our system without much problem as we have seen with Sapp and now Trawick. We really don't ask our PGs to do much of anything that a combo guard can't do. Between Starks/Trawick/DSR, I think we will be fine at PG.

[SirSaxa]

While we are all expecting Hollis to graduate and move on, IMHO -- based on historical trends - he will not be the only one to leave earlier than anticipated for whatever reason. No inside info. No guesses as to whom. Simply saying if we look at the last 10 years -- or more if you like -- there is a better than 50/50 chance that someone else will leave the program. If not at the end of this season, then certainly at the end of the next one.

[idhoya]

still need depth at the 5 drd.

[rosslynhoya]

I think Trawick can also play up and give some credible minutes at the 3 if needed, especially if we're not short at PG. Running out of adequate SFs because they're all jumping to the league early would be a nice problem to have, and one the coaching staff could be forgiven for ignoring at the present.

Hoping Moses/Tyler can jump directly into Henry's shoes next year sounds suspiciously like a hope-based strategy but it would be an awful waste to overrecruit at the position and find that our birds in the hand were up to the task.

[idhoya]

you can't pass up top 30 kids if they wanna come. Baby is a top 30 kid. Troy is top 15.

[KirbyKeger]

Oh absolutely need more depth at center. I'm just hoping Moses can surpass some expectations. We're out of luck for the 2012 class though. Gotta get on 2013 now. Need Noel or Meeks.

[idhoya]

Yeah Meeks, with his footwork and touch could be a Sullinger/Sweetney type of big.

[hoyaboya]

A big man that can score. Ideally one 6'10"+. That's what we need. Lubick, Adams, and Moses all have potential and can give good minutes at the 5. But none of them are going to be big scorers for us. I think Hopkins has the potential to average double digits, but he's not as tall as he probably needs to be to play the 5. Hopkins at the 4 with a 6'10"+ banger at the 5 would work if we can't find a 6'10"+ guy that can score.

[blueandgray]

Nov 29, 2011 20:14:06 GMT -5 Ranch Dressing said:

Even assuming Hollis leaves, if you give schollies to White and Troy, you have no more openings for class of 2013.

My friend, we will have turnover. We always do. Outside of Hollis, I wouldn't be surprised if two or more of the fellas aren't back for 2013.

[RBHoya]

III never really seems to recruit by need. In his first few years here I always tried to determine what positions looked like needs going forward, see who we were recruiting at those positions, and follow them closely thinking they were the most likely to become Hoyas. Generally, the correlation wasn't particularly strong. For instance last year we all knew Chris was graduating and it was fairly obvious that Vee was on his way out, but III never really went hard after a true point. He went for a combo early (Johnson and later Trawick) but never seemed too interested in a conventional point guard at any point, even for the late period (focusing instead on wings Whittington and Porter), even though most fans were wringing-their hands about the thought of Clark stepping in as our backup point. So far, so good for Coach. Some coaches definitely recruit position-specific, ie. if they expect to lose a point they recruit a point and if they expect to lose a big they recruit a big, and most fans seem to do the whole "make a projected depth chart" thing... but III does not seem to operate that way. I don't think he focuses nearly as much on positions, or who is "the 1" and who is "the 5" or any of that stuff as the peanut gallery does. I think he wants everybody on the floor to be skilled/good at everything, ideally with length across the board, and positions are much more amorphous. He'll play small (Freeman at "3", DaJuan at "4"), he'll play big (Whitt at "2", Otto at "3") but he's certainly going to play his most skilled players, and I think he's going to recruit the best players he thinks he can get, regardless of where people would try to slot them in. Case in point, going hard after guys like TJ Warren or Andrew White when we seemingly have a strong crop of freshmen swingmen in Porter, Whitt, Trawick.

Anyway, my guess is that like Clark, Sapp and Cook before him, Smith-Rivera will be a combo guard who plays his share of minutes as primary ballhandler. He's a scorer, but that doesn't mean he can't bring the ball up the court in our offense. He'll play a role similar to what Jason is playing this year (though less minutes in aggregate). Starks, DSR, Trawick and Whittington will be our backcourt rotation, and you may see each of those guys getting more than 20 minutes a game (Whittington will also back up Otto as the "3", making that possible). I like our future in the backcourt and on the wings--and if we add White or another wing, it's gravy. It's the post I'm a lot more worried about, but barring Noel reclassifying, the odds of us picking up a recruit in 2012 who can make a difference next year seem very slim. My guess is that we'll see a lot of Lubick at the "5", with Porter or Hopkins at the "4". This is not ideal, but again, III is going to play his best guys. I'd also point out that Nate is not substantially smaller than a guy like Jeff Green who played a lot of minutes at center for us on some of our best teams. Also, hopefully one or both of Moses and Adams comes around by next year, which would minimize the need for Nate to play down.

As far as recruiting though, I'd definitely like to see us land an athletic big. We haven't recruited anybody over 6'9 since Sims/Monroe. Lot of 6'8-6'9 bigs, which is fine, but it'd be nice to get somebody with a little more length and athleticism.

[SFHoya99]

Don't really disagree on any point.

Lack of a strong defensive center makes it very difficult for the team to be great. But I'm like Thompson -- I don't really need a "real" PG.

I'm also falling in love with the concept of Whittington as a two. There's just something so awesome about throwing a 6'8" guy out there to cover problematic twos.

[hoyasexy]

RB, I agree with your points but I would phrase it a little differently. It's not that JT3 doesn't recruit for need. It's that he doesn't recruit for our perception of need because our perception doesn't necessarily fit his. He recruits the kids he thinks he needs. I'm willing to bet that his own perception of what he has and what he needs will be more accurate than ours more often than not.

[hoyarooter]

I pretty much agree with this, except for the statement that III hasn't been recruiting bigs. He recruited Christmas, we thought we had him, and we lost him. He recruited Echefu, we thought we had a good chance there, and we lost him, too. The effort has been there, only the results haven't. Now we can also add Upshaw to that list.

And I definitely agree that a shot-blocking 5 is our biggest need, more than a point guard.

[idhoya]

Move on to Noel.