calhoya
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Post by calhoya on May 13, 2012 15:41:40 GMT -5
The threat of losing Louisville and more could also cause BSU and SDSU to rethink as well. With today's announcement that FSU would consider tHe Big 12, the entire conference realignment is in play again. If the Big 12 can get FSU and possibly another ACC team (Miami, Clemson) there is no way they have any interest in Louisville. The question is whether Louisville would consider replacing FSU or another team in the ACC.
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Post by nashvillehoyas on May 13, 2012 16:25:34 GMT -5
I don't believe that FSU would consider going any place except possibly the SEC, and that would be very remote..... Unfortunally, I can't say that about Louisville. I would hate for the ACC to come calling.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on May 14, 2012 8:56:28 GMT -5
Based on the reports I have been reading, the ACC's agreement is being seen as a complete failure by all the ACC member schools. An increase in revenue does not begin for another 9 years! So they were sold a bill of goods by the commissioner and ESPN.
In any event, if FSU thinks it can get paid in the Big 12, they are leaving, they have no connection to the ACC like the Carolina schools and they need to fill a big stadium - Texas, Oklahoma does that, no one in the ACC provides that type of build-up. FSU will never be in the SEC because they are already in the SEC footprint, the SEC does not want duplication and UF would fight like heck to keep them out, actually Bama might fight harder since they would be more affected geographically speaking.
Now if FSU leaves for the Big12, that is the end of Big East football. The ACC would immediately raid the Big East again for UConn and RU, to cover the entire east coast while I would think UL would be the 12th invited to the Big 12 along with FSU. At that point, the ACC will have forced Notre Dame's hand and they might have to take the #16 position in the ACC out of necessity. That would just about do it.
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thebin
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Post by thebin on May 14, 2012 10:13:39 GMT -5
Based on the reports I have been reading, the ACC's agreement is being seen as a complete failure by all the ACC member schools. An increase in revenue does not begin for another 9 years! So they were sold a bill of goods by the commissioner and ESPN. In any event, if FSU thinks it can get paid in the Big 12, they are leaving, they have no connection to the ACC like the Carolina schools and they need to fill a big stadium - Texas, Oklahoma does that, no one in the ACC provides that type of build-up. FSU will never be in the SEC because they are already in the SEC footprint, the SEC does not want duplication and UF would fight like heck to keep them out, actually Bama might fight harder since they would be more affected geographically speaking. Now if FSU leaves for the Big12, that is the end of Big East football. The ACC would immediately raid the Big East again for UConn and RU, to cover the entire east coast while I would think UL would be the 12th invited to the Big 12 along with FSU. At that point, the ACC will have forced Notre Dame's hand and they might have to take the #16 position in the ACC out of necessity. That would just about do it. Way to go Boston College.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on May 15, 2012 8:10:00 GMT -5
New commissioner Bob Bowlsby doesn't even officially start until next month and the reality is any candidate the Big 12 would pursue (Florida State, Louisville, etc.) has no other options. So the Big 12 can sit back and wait to see how the new 2014 playoff revenue is divvied up among the conferences before deciding who, if anyone, they want to add.
Interesting point that there is no need for these other conferences to expand unless the mission is to get rid of the big east. Since we no longer have an AQ, that would seem ridiculous. My guess is nothing happens until after we get our TV deal and then they should up the exit fee again to make it financially painful to leave.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on May 15, 2012 8:46:07 GMT -5
New commissioner Bob Bowlsby doesn't even officially start until next month and the reality is any candidate the Big 12 would pursue (Florida State, Louisville, etc.) has no other options. So the Big 12 can sit back and wait to see how the new 2014 playoff revenue is divvied up among the conferences before deciding who, if anyone, they want to add. Interesting point that there is no need for these other conferences to expand unless the mission is to get rid of the big east. Since we no longer have an AQ, that would seem ridiculous. My guess is nothing happens until after we get our TV deal and then they should up the exit fee again to make it financially painful to leave. Agree that everything is probably on hold until the BE television contract is sorted out, with the exception of Boise State. I understand that they have to make some decision by end of June or face an even stiffer penalty to change their mind later and withdraw from the BE.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on May 15, 2012 10:51:48 GMT -5
New commissioner Bob Bowlsby doesn't even officially start until next month and the reality is any candidate the Big 12 would pursue (Florida State, Louisville, etc.) has no other options. So the Big 12 can sit back and wait to see how the new 2014 playoff revenue is divvied up among the conferences before deciding who, if anyone, they want to add. Interesting point that there is no need for these other conferences to expand unless the mission is to get rid of the big east. Since we no longer have an AQ, that would seem ridiculous. My guess is nothing happens until after we get our TV deal and then they should up the exit fee again to make it financially painful to leave. The only thing I think you may be overlooking is the value of a Big 12 chamionship game. If the conference believes it can get several more million a year for holding an annual conference championship it may be worth adding to 2 more teams. Meanwhile, I thnk your point is very valid for the SEC, B10 and PAC12. I do think the ACC would like to destroy the Big East, they share some of the same markets.
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Post by nashvillehoyas on May 15, 2012 13:38:55 GMT -5
I find it strange that some folk would love to see programs jump from the ACC to other conferences. If that would happen, the Big East would be the likely target for the ACC. I see no real advantage for BB, but FB would make sense for some programs. Whether we like it or believe it, football is what is driving the conference expansion and conference hopping.
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boxout05
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Post by boxout05 on May 15, 2012 14:01:39 GMT -5
BSU and SDSU (or BYU) to the Big XII would probably be an acceptable outcome. MWC wouldn't get any stronger, Big XII gets to 12 for its championship game, Lville and Cincy have nowhere to go unless conferences want to push past 12/14 teams, and Big East doesn't have to worry about catering to far-flung football powers BSU or SDSU. It'd hurt the football program to not have BSU, but should buy a level of stability.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on May 15, 2012 15:26:50 GMT -5
None of this is likely to happen. FSU may want to leave but the Big 12 wont take them because of one thing: Texas. Texas controls that conference and Texas AD De Loss, doesnt want a conference championship or to expand. Also FSU pres doesnt want to leave the ACC (some bull about academics...yawn).
Regardless, if FSU leaves the ACC and takes another school with it (even the worst option like Clemson), that wont mean the ACC starts taking more BE teams. The Big East is going to get a TV deal that is less than the deal the ACC just signed but more than what they turned down, and it will start immediately.
If FSU and another leave the ACC that TV deal they just signed goes in the trash. FSU is the ACCs biggest FB school. That is the jewel, followed by Miami than VT. Adding UConn and Rutgers or even Louisville doesnt even come close to making up for that loss regardless of the TV markets. If that TV contract goes away there will be people at Pitt and Cuse regretting their decision to leave the Big East.
There are only so many big money football schools. The Big East lost all of theirs: Miami, BC and VT years ago, and WVU last year. It added one of the two schools out there that has moved up to the big leagues in Boise (the other being TCU). The ACC has Miami, FSU, and VT. If they lose FSU (their jewel) they arent, football wise, any better than the Big East. Basketball is a separate issue where the ACC is the outlier.
We all know its about TV. But its not about finding schools that are in the biggest TV markets. If it was than the Big East would dominate. But it clearly doesnt. None of the big, east coast cities are college towns. NYC is not, Philly is not, Boston is not, DC is not. Bostonions dont care about BC football. DCers dont care about UMD football. But they do watch college football. They watch the teams that they went to school at. That means that bigger schools with more alumni have bigger TV foot prints. Texas, Michigan, Florida, FSU, Wisconsin, etc. Thats why the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC are so attractive to ESPN, and consistently successful.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on May 15, 2012 15:32:26 GMT -5
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skyhoya
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Post by skyhoya on May 15, 2012 15:45:33 GMT -5
UCF started in 1968. so it really doesn't have a big alumni base since the big players have been around a lot longer.It grew with the spacer program, so looks like it will need a new base for students.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on May 15, 2012 17:02:13 GMT -5
BSU and SDSU (or BYU) to the Big XII would probably be an acceptable outcome. MWC wouldn't get any stronger, Big XII gets to 12 for its championship game, Lville and Cincy have nowhere to go unless conferences want to push past 12/14 teams, and Big East doesn't have to worry about catering to far-flung football powers BSU or SDSU. It'd hurt the football program to not have BSU, but should buy a level of stability. Almost no chance at this time that the Big 12 would take either BSU or SDSU. Both tried to lobby for admission when the conference was stabilizing after the loss of Colorado and Nebraska and were unsuccessful. Nothing has happened to make them more attractive. BYU is an entirely different story. The school has some national interest because of its affiliation with the Mormon church. It also has a history of football and basketball success (as well as the other Olympis sports). Moreover, the move to the West Coast conference for their non-football sports was not well-received by the fanbase as they have learned it is one thing to play in front of large basketball crazy crowds at New Mexico, UNLV, Utah, CSU, and SDSU and an entirely different story playing in small gyms at St. Mary's, San Francisco and University of San Diego. (Gonzaga being the exception). Change is still occurring and the Big East urgently needs a new Commissioner with some vision if it is to survive. The new additions can bring the conference some football stability if given a chance. The addition of SDSU and BSU is not critical or helpful to a post-BCS future without automatic qualifiers. However, if Louisville pulls out though, the dominoes may start falling again.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on May 15, 2012 23:10:23 GMT -5
I actually do think that UCF is a good investment for Big East football because the alumni base will only grow and I could easily see UCF being a top tier program in a generation or two. The fact is large schools with large undergraduate populations tend to have good and popular football programs. I think UCF is a perfect fit in this way, even though they don't bring much for basketball (for now).
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on May 15, 2012 23:27:35 GMT -5
UCF and USF CAN become pretty big in football because they are in a football crazy state, with tons of talent (enough that even if Miami, UF, and FSU take the top talent whats left is really good), they just have to lock it down.
The main issue that the Big East faces is that all of there schools but a few have attendance that rises and falls based on success. Memphis and Louisville have consistent attendance regardless of success, but that is only for basketball.
The Big East needs a team or two to have consistent success in football, like 5-7 years. They dont have to win a national championship but consistent 10/11 win seasons to prove to fan bases and recruits that they CAN win. Then when these teams travel they become draws for the other teams. Boise is on the way to this; this year is key with the loss of Moore.
The Big East was critically wounded when Miami, VT, and BC left; but, the death blow came when Pitt beat WVU in 2008. If WVU wins they go to a national championship game and it is unlikely that Rich Rod leaves. They had a top recruiting class that year, and it could have set them up for continued success. So if you need something more to be Editeded at Pitt about...
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on May 16, 2012 7:48:00 GMT -5
The Big East needs a team or two to have consistent success in football, like 5-7 years. They dont have to win a national championship but consistent 10/11 win seasons to prove to fan bases and recruits that they CAN win. Then when these teams travel they become draws for the other teams. Boise is on the way to this; this year is key with the loss of Moore. Not sure why Boise is just on its way. Here is what they have done the last 6 years under Petersen. 2011 12-1 2010 12-1 2009 14-0 2008 12-1 2007 10-3 2006 13-0 10 wins is a bad year. Even without Moore, they should be good for 10 wins this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they did better.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on May 16, 2012 8:08:53 GMT -5
Agree that Boise has proven to be a consistent winner for several years. However, most of that time was in the WAC and although they proved to be able to play with and beat the big boys 2-3 times a year, they will not convince the rest of the nation that they have arrived on the national stage until they can do it week in and out. I think Petersen is more than capable of accomplishing that feat. The real question is whether the competition in the reconfigured BE will be deemed by so-called national pundits to be adequate enough to elevate the program into the category of the elite or do they need a Big 12 or Pac 12 type of schedule?
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lichoya68
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Post by lichoya68 on May 16, 2012 9:17:38 GMT -5
a little birdie told me boise state will stick its ABOUT THE MONEY yup sad but true. go hoyas go big east. same birdie that told me mr. hayes's growth plates may be open yup woowwwowowowowowowwow..
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on May 16, 2012 9:32:20 GMT -5
Agree that Boise has proven to be a consistent winner for several years. However, most of that time was in the WAC and although they proved to be able to play with and beat the big boys 2-3 times a year, they will not convince the rest of the nation that they have arrived on the national stage until they can do it week in and out. I think Petersen is more than capable of accomplishing that feat. The real question is whether the competition in the reconfigured BE will be deemed by so-called national pundits to be adequate enough to elevate the program into the category of the elite or do they need a Big 12 or Pac 12 type of schedule? Many people are convinced they are now elite. It appears you are one of those who are not. Some will never be convinced. Many of those people are also living in the 1970s. One recent national publication listed Petersen as the second best coach in FBS after Saban. If BSU keeps Petersen (and every indication is that he will stay), BSU can continue an elite national program a la Osborne, Paterno, Bowden, Beamer, etc. The one thing BSU fans are accustom to is having the goal posts moved. They fully understand that when they join the Big East it will no longer be good enough either. The most interesting example of this was when they heard that Oregon would beat BSU 9 of 10 times after BSU had won twice in a row - home and away. (By the way, I am a GU alum and basketball fan as well as a BSU football fan having grown up in Boise)
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on May 16, 2012 9:33:38 GMT -5
a little birdie told me boise state will stick its ABOUT THE MONEY yup sad but true. go hoyas go big east. same birdie that told me mr. hayes's growth plates may be open yup woowwwowowowowowowwow.. The TV money potentially available to BSU is 5X what they would otherwise receive. If BSU can solve the problem of its Olympic sports, it will most definitely move to the Big East.
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