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Post by FrazierFanatic on Oct 9, 2011 18:08:19 GMT -5
DFW, reformation, Frazier, allenixis - you've all given up before even trying. A hoops only league may well turn out to be our last resort, but a hoops only league is where we're going to be, whether it is next month or 3 years from now. To denigrate the hoops only conference idea is to denigrate our future. And of course the idea is less likely to work as a "CYO" league with Holy Cross and Fordham. But that is not what has been proposed. You are taking the idea and casting it as negative light as possible. And, for the record, I'd rather play St. Joe's twice a year in hoops than Baylor. In their heart of hearts, I suspect so would JTIII and most any recruit considering Georgetown. DeFillipo - who knows far more about this than any of us - said it best - 85% of the money is football, 15% is basketball. This ain't 1980. Could a bball league survive? Yes. Could it be successful? Yes. Could it have anywhere near the finances of a conference that included a football package, even the 6th best conference? No chance. If that is where we end up in 2 or 3 years, obviously that will be the end result - but in this era, with the current demographics, we will get far less $$$ than we can get with the Big East conference - not to mention all of the other issues, of which DFW has just started to scratch the surface. Trying to save the Big East is still our best option. By far. Not to mention the fact that I do not see how we lose anything if we have to go to Plan B in a year or two rather than right now.
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GUMBA
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Post by GUMBA on Oct 9, 2011 18:17:12 GMT -5
Best case scenario for the Big East is as follows:
Remaining Football Schools: UCONN, WVU, Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati, & USF
Basketball Schools: ND, GU, Nova, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette & DePaul
Add Six: ECU, UCF, Memphis, Navy, Air Force & Temple
12 and 20 format for the Big East Tournament at MSG
In this scenario you would still have an excellent basketball conference that rivals the ACC adding Memphis and Temple, both of which have a deep basketball tradition. You bring up and coming football programs with ECU and UCF. Both are huge schools with lots of eyeballs in markets that can help with TV contracts. You also bring in the academies, which have their own halo effect plus plenty of eyeballs when it comes to sports. It isn‘t perfect but I will bet such a “New Big East” could compete against the ACC in hoops and eventually, in football.
People who want to run down the “directional schools” need to look at their size and potential on the field. Academically, are they any different than Virginia Tech and Florida State from the ACC or UCONN and Cincinnati from the Big East? If ECU was called Greenville University, UCF was called the University of Orlando and USF was called the University of Tampa, we might not have the same bias towards them. It is a branding problem, not a problem of size, scale or ability to compete in football and other sports. They bring active and involved fan bases who care about their athletic programs. Virginia Tech wasn’t always a powerhouse football program. Beamer came and patterned the program after Florida State. Now they are better than the Seminoles.
I am trying to keep hope alive. I agree with DFW an others who say the hybrid model can and does still work. Once the big four conferences get to 16 schools, there are still lots of other universities out there with big aspirations in athletics. They won’t be able to lock out the rest of us in football or hoops, lest they face action from Congress and angry alumni in states across the country.
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GUMBA
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Post by GUMBA on Oct 9, 2011 18:27:46 GMT -5
Just remembered that Navy would be Football only. Might need one more basketball school for the scenario above. Pick from Xavier, Butler, or Detroit. Would only make the New Big East even stronger in Hoops and potentially deeper than the ACC. I would love to see Coach K's face when bids NCAA bids are handed out in a couple of years and the Big East still takes more than the ACC. Tell me that UCONN, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Notre Dame, Memphis and Temple isn't deeper than the "four deep" New ACC with Duke, UNC, Pitt and Cuse. It is a steep drop off from there.
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Oct 9, 2011 18:58:08 GMT -5
The numbers simply do not justify it. In fact, Georgetown runs the risk of not being able to mantain a Div. I program if it relies on the 1970's economics of a Catholic League. This is not a program that can fall back on an on-campus arena or a favorable climate for donors, much less pay its coach with money that won't be there otherwise or embark on national recruiting efforts when kids no longer see them on TV. I have more on this on Monday. What "numbers" are you talking about? Do you have insight into what kind of TV revenue a basketball only conference would bring in, vs one that features a hodgepodge of football schools, basketball schools & service academies? If so, please share. Personally, I don't think the delta, if any, is that great, and I believe we have a MUCH better chance of creatign a product (conference) with long-term value if there is logic, focus and strategy behind its creation. I don't think one has to have insider knowledge of TV network value projections to understand that Seton Hall vs. Providence and Marquette vs. DePaul are not highly valued and desirable features. Whatever national coverage games like this do garner is largely as a result of contractual obligations placed on ESPN as part of the overall TV deal. They show more basketball games than they otherwise would in exchange for the rights to the football games. Moreover, in addition to showing these games, the "Worldwide Leader" hypes them and the teams involved, even when they're not broadcasting them. Outside of John Marinatto's fevered imagination, Rutgers vs. Seton Hall does not hold any real interest or implications outside of the Garden State. So why is this game on the Deuce and being hyped as a top-notch rivalry? If ESPN has to show it anyway, they're going to try to 'prime' the audience so that people actually do tune in. Without that, it's basically indistinguishable from Rutgers vs. Fairleigh Dickinson or NJIT. A lot of people appear to be operating under the mistaken impression that TV coverage is directly related to quality: the Big East gets the coverage that it does because it is the best basketball conference, so that even if all the football-playing schools go away, a non-football conference with a few added basketball schools (Butler? Xavier? Dayton?) will command a TV contract and TV coverage proportional to what those schools get now. This is, quite simply, not the case. It is not a coincidence (to put it lightly) that of our non-conference games, the only nationally televised ones are against BCS (Alabama) and FBS (Memphis, an outlier in many ways due to their effectively being bankrolled by FedEx) schools, plus an ESPN-engineered gimmick tournament in Maui. And it's not just us. Seton Hall's non-conference slate has nationally televised games (if you don't count ESPN3, which I do not, since one has to intentionally select that game) against Auburn (BCS) and in the Charleston Classic. The ESPN3 game is against Wake Forest (BCS). Villanova's nationally-televised non-conference games: Mizzou (BCS), Temple (FBS), and the 76 Classic. Marquette: Wisconsin on the Big Ten Network (BCS), Washington (BCS), and Vanderbilt (BCS). St. John's: Kentucky (BCS), Detroit-Mercy, and games in the 2K Sports Classic and the Madison Square Garden Holiday Classic. Providence: South Carolina (BCS) and the South Padre Island Invitational. DePaul: Ole Miss (BCS) and the Old Spice Classic. So out of all of the non-football Big East teams, the only non-conference games being nationally televised that aren't against BCS teams are Georgetown vs. Memphis, Villanova vs. Temple, and St. John's vs. Detroit-Mercy. Only the last of these three - only one! - is against a non-FBS school. Does anyone want to argue that BCS football isn't holding 95% of the cards? Do we think a non-football Big East/Catholic League/whatever-you-call-it is going to be getting a proportional number of invites to all of these tournaments, which are orchestrated by the networks and other corporate stakeholders (if you want to attract traveling fans, a la bowl games, who are the safest bets?)? Do we imagine ESPN sponsoring a SEC/RumpBigEast Challenge?
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Oct 9, 2011 19:14:23 GMT -5
How committed are ND, UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and WVU to the 12/20 cobbled hodgepodge model outlined above?
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RusskyHoya
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Post by RusskyHoya on Oct 9, 2011 19:23:43 GMT -5
Again, I'm just suggesting that the world isn't going to end if you break from the football schools completely. Though it will end poorly for Georgetown if it doesn't take a deep breath and work hard to make its program successful moving forward. Georgetown, Villanova and Marquette have strong brands. Get off the BE drug and protect your program from here. Otherwise, don't do that and give up. Just understand that, at the end of the day, if Georgetown ultimately becomes a "mid-major", it will have done that to itself. Ok, let's be serious here. Xavier has 13 varsity sports; Georgetown has 24 ok fine admin, 29 (can we dock Track & Field for not having a real field event contingent? They should count as 0.5 sports ). Unless Georgetown wants to cancel a dozen programs and reinvest the vast majority of basketball money into the program - can you imagine the outcry that would result? - the Xavier route is not a realistic one. To double down on that point: The state-of-the-art Cintas Center on the campus of Xavier University, which opened for the 2000-01 academic year, includes a 10,250-seat arena, home to the men's and women's basketball teams as well as the volleyball team. In addition to serving as the home for Xavier athletic events, the facility is the setting for commencement as well as outside exhibits, concerts, trade shows, weddings and family entertainment events. The Cintas Center doors are less than 200 yards from Xavier's residence halls.The probability of something like this being built on Georgetown's campus is exactly 0. Georgetown has 29 sports, as cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track are considered separate NCAA sports. The 29th sport is women's sailing, which is separate from the coed team--Admin
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Oct 9, 2011 19:53:11 GMT -5
How committed are ND, UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and WVU to the 12/20 cobbled hodgepodge model outlined above? Many of them (maybe all of them except ND)don't have any real choice.
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Post by xudash on Oct 9, 2011 20:15:10 GMT -5
I would think that for Xavier to be included in a future BE, it would have to add some sports. I certainly acknowledge that as a negative, but I also would expect Xavier to adjust accordingly.
I also presume that should Georgetown find itself outside of a hybrid model, it would be dropping some sports. Is Georgetown at risk of dropping sports now as a result of the known changes to the BE?
What number of sports would a non-BCS member of a hybrid conference be expected to field?
What number of sports would a hoops school in a hoops-centric conference be expected to field?
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lichoya68
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Post by lichoya68 on Oct 9, 2011 21:57:51 GMT -5
OUCH im getting a headache and NOT feeling any better seeing all this OUCH og hoyas
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RBHoya
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Post by RBHoya on Oct 9, 2011 22:44:26 GMT -5
Outside of John Marinatto's fevered imagination, Rutgers vs. Seton Hall does not hold any real interest or implications outside of the Garden State. Really, it doesn't hold any interest here either. And I don't say that as a hater of either school, but it's definitely the truth. Largely that's a result of neither team being much good in years. I know that wasn't the point of your post but just thought I'd bring it up once more How committed are ND, UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and WVU to the 12/20 cobbled hodgepodge model outlined above? Exactly as committed as their options. This is well-established and you're not pointing out anything we don't already know. And even knowing that, we STILL need to pursue being in a conference with them as much as possible. My guess is that we're looking at losing 1 of Ville/Conn/WVU on top of Pitt/Cuse, though it could be more and it could be less. But unless it's ALL of them, we need to keep trying to duct tape, super glue and use chewing gum to patch the BE together. Have heard a little chatter about Boise State as a football only: www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2011/10/big_easts_newest_expansion_tar.htmlPersonally I like it, I think "football onlies" are a big winner if handled right... They can bring quality on the football side, and help solidify the BCS autobid. If you can get enough of them you can even get 12 teams, and have a championship game which earns the league more money. On the hoops side, they don't clog things up and make the league bigger or more cumbersome than it already is (20 team conf tourney would be a major PITA). And its good for non-revenue sports, because you can add a team like BSU or AF as a football only and you don't have to worry about sending your field hockey or swim team out there, and can send those teams to schools that are at least relatively close. Seems to solve a few problems. On the downside, if the casual fan doesn't know who is in your conference anymore, that's not the best for brand value. The existing football schools (RU, UConn etc) might not be wild about playing Boise, Navy etc. in football and nothing else. Tougher to build rivalries that way. Picking up UCF and ECU in all sports, plus Boise, Army, Navy, Air Force could give us a nice 12 team football league with an annual conference championship... Solid football "Rivalry Saturday" potential: RU/UConn, UCF/USF, Ville/Cincy, ECU/WVU, Boise/AF, Army/Navy (can this game be moved up a week or two?). Basketball league still sits at 16, which is the current league minus Pitt/Cuse and plus UCF/ECU. Is that as good as the conference the last few years? No, but nothing will be, and this is at least plausible. It may not be the conference of anyones dreams, but if the Big 12 holds Mizzou (for now) and adds BYU to round it out, and the BE needs to round out its football league somehow for the post Pitt/Cuse-era, something like this might keep everyone from collapsing. Again, there are no perfect solutions here and its just a matter of finding the "least bad" outcome. Of course this league sucks compared to the Big 12 so if offered, any of the football schools bolt. I think most of the potential new additions want to make sure that they're not going to jump to a league thats about to implode, so I suspect they're waiting to see what happens to the B12 and if the SEC makes any moves before getting into bed with the Big East. And I think THAT is the big reason for the BE seeming to be inactive for now.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Oct 10, 2011 0:34:30 GMT -5
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Post by nashvillehoyas on Oct 10, 2011 11:04:49 GMT -5
Air Force, Army, Navy, and the likes. The Big East is looking more like the Big Joke! We should consider programs like UMass, Temple, St. Joseph, and other eastern quality basketball programs. Regardless of what UConn and West Virgina say they will eventually become ACC (UConn) and SEC (WVirgina).
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Oct 10, 2011 11:50:48 GMT -5
The fact is that a Big East football conference with Air Force, Army, Navy and Boise State would garner more television dollars for basketball than a conference with UMass, Temple, St. Joseph and other programs, even if the academies and Boise State are football-only. Who has a bigger name, the service academies or St. Joseph?
I can understand wanting the Big East to remain a basketball power, but the Big East of 2010-2011 will never exist again (at least after the 27 month waiting period is finished). It's unlikely that we'll see a basketball conference that strong in the near future. I am willing to deal with a weakened basketball conference (including schools like UCF and ECU) if it means that Georgetown stays relevant.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Oct 10, 2011 14:36:11 GMT -5
Couple questions/comments for DFW. 1) Thanks for writing the article. It definitely adds to our discussion and focuses us on fundamentals and facts about the situation. 2) As has been mentioned above, no one has proposed a CYO league. Since we are heading to a hoops-only league at some point, I personally think it is counter-productive to refer to the proposed new league as such. 3) How is the Big East football television contract revenue shared among the 16 conference schools? Does every school receive an equal share, or do football schools receive more than non-football schools? 4) Is it possible in 2013, when the current 6-year football contract runs up, that the Big East will be unable to negotiate as lucrative a television contract for football? It remains to be seen which teams will join the conference to replace Pitt and Syracuse, but given the current turmoil and instability inherent in participating in a weaker football conference that is prone to losing its best teams to better football conferences, will networks discount the current television contract in some meaningful way? Or shorten the length of the deal? Or make a portion/all of the economics dependent on conference stability? 5) I do not agree with the A10+20% premium estimate for revenue potential for a hoops-only Big East conference that will feature historically relevant teams in major television markets like Chicago, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York, and Boston with a conference tournament in MSG. Unfortunately, I have no way of predicting what a hoops-only Big East can command from a network seeking to broadcast the league, but my suspicion is that A10+20% is a gross underestimate. 6) For the same reason, I think the A10+20% assumption grossly underestimates the number of television appearances Georgetown can command in a hoops-only league, as envisioned. 7) Do you know the revenue generated for the Big East under the basketball portion of its television contract? I'd perhaps set that as target revenue for the new league, with a discount because of the Syracuse and Pitt departures. Thanks again. I look forward to your responses and reading your future articles. Just an observation based on the numerous articles that discuss ESPN's role in the expansion of the ACC, I doubt we will see very many games on ESPN after 2013 (or whenever a new contract is negotiated)...
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Post by aleutianhoya on Oct 10, 2011 15:10:17 GMT -5
Ranch, regarding nos. 3, 4, and 7: the contracts for football and basketball are separate deals, although they frequently are referred to as one deal. GU gets none of the football money. I believe the payouts on the basketball portion of the deal are roughly $2 million per year per school but there are performance kickers of some sort in there, so sharing is not entirely equal. (I have no idea whether the football schools share money equally or not.)
Each of these contracts contains automatic renegotiation rights if conference affiliation changes, so there's no reason a network would limit the years or amount paid based on uncertainty. That is, they'd just renegotiate it downward if something happened. (That's why all of these leagues are now able to almost immediately renegotiate upward when they add teams.) The shares for each school (football and basketball) are almost sure to rise in the next contract, simply because all sports properties are being sold for far more than they were six years ago. But of course, everything is relative. Even if the shares rise, if they rise far slower than those at other schools, the relative competitive disadvantage increases.
It may seem as though $2 million should be the baseline, then (before accounting for the natural (perhaps significant) increase in rights fees, countered by the loss of Pitt and Cuse). But my understanding is that the networks are willing to pay more to get other sports if they also get football inventory. That is, even though the contracts are separate legally, they are negotiated together and the bundling of the rights deals inures at least somewhat to the basketball-only schools. This makes some sense from a network's perspective: building interest in a school during part of the year makes it more likely that interest will be sustained in another part of the year. So, ESPN believes that their airing of Rutgers and W.Va. football adds some ratings to its basketball coverage for those schools and, therefore, increases the payout for all basketball schools. You can argue with whether that's correct or not, but that's the theory.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Oct 10, 2011 15:17:31 GMT -5
Thanks, Aleutian. Very helpful. I moved my post to the CYO thread (I should have posted it there in the first place). Let's continue the discussion over there.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Oct 10, 2011 15:19:26 GMT -5
That is correct. No matter what a league with football will always make more than a league without football since more people watch football so networks will pay extra to have access to the football games.
End of Argument.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Oct 10, 2011 16:09:48 GMT -5
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Oct 10, 2011 16:24:06 GMT -5
That is 100% what we should do if we can.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Oct 10, 2011 16:29:02 GMT -5
This form of revenge would be particularly sweet.
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