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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 9, 2011 14:29:25 GMT -5
At the outset, let's assume that JTIII continues to say that CW is going to play and the committee believes him, but is still uncertain whether he'll be 100% or whether his return will fix whatever is wrong. I make that assumption because I think it's the most likely to be what they honestly think.
I think we remain a six seed. And I actually don't think it's close.
Take a look at the 7s in Lunardi's latest projections (I used his for no reason other than it was the first place I looked): Temple, Cinci, UNLV, UCLA.
Here are the RPI; record vs. top-50; record vs. top-100 for all:
GU (13; 9-9; 10-9)
Temple (29; 2-4; 7-6)
Cinci (31; 5-7; 8-7)
UNLV (24; 3-6; 7-6)
UCLA (33; 3-6; 7-8)
Based on "overall body of work" we can all agree it's not close; we have far and away the best profile of the bunch. And it's important to note that the "overall body of work" includes the recent slide.
If you assume that CW is going to return and provide some help, as my assumption does, then you have to -- at a minimum -- not penalize GU for its recent slide, at least not beyond the punishment the losses do to the overall body of work, which already is considerable.
It's a tough call for the committee, but looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how they do worse than a 6.
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superan
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Post by superan on Mar 9, 2011 15:18:31 GMT -5
Considering the name-blind comparisons that the committee uses to determine ranking, we have a great shot at being a 5 or 6 seed in the tournament.
Unfortunately that will most likely grace us with the right to play Tom Izzo's Michigan State that has underperformed all year and is due for another breakout NCAA tournament run.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2011 15:56:08 GMT -5
I was upset by the loss and our recent slide, but after thinking about it more, I have to agree. I really think we could stay a 6, and our at worst a 7. We are not Nova. We have no bad losses. We didn't just lose to USF, for one.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 9, 2011 16:04:15 GMT -5
I think Joe Lunardi is a bleeping clown, but FWIW, even after today's loss, he still has Georgetown as a 6 seed.
Maybe he -- more importantly, the selection committee -- was listening today when they said Wright has been practicing the last two days.
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Dhall
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Post by Dhall on Mar 9, 2011 16:09:42 GMT -5
Considering the name-blind comparisons that the committee uses to determine ranking, we have a great shot at being a 5 or 6 seed in the tournament. Unfortunately that will most likely grace us with the right to play Tom Izzo's Michigan State that has underperformed all year and is due for another breakout NCAA tournament run. Do they really do a name blind thing for the rankings? Obviously they have to look at names at some point to make sure that they follow all of their other rules about conference teams not playing each other, etc. but are the rankings already set in stone by then? |
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alleninxis
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Post by alleninxis on Mar 9, 2011 16:12:44 GMT -5
when you look at our overall year and what the rest of the country has done..we should probably be no worse than 6.
losses to Temple, ND, Pitt, SJU, WVU, Uconn x2, UC x2, & Syracuse. None are 'bad' on paper. Then factor in the OOC and who we have beaten, it's an above average resume, for sure.
But, I find it very difficult that we will not be hurt by Chris' absence as well as how/when the losses came.
still, rather get a good match up than a higher seed, 6,7 or 8. whatever it is that would get us a winnable game.
But I would say I definitely prefer a 6 to avoid a potential 2 seed like Texas/Purdue..but I'd be ecstatic to even have a 2nd round game at this point.
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Post by roysgirlfriend on Mar 9, 2011 16:20:35 GMT -5
If we are a 6, what does that say for possible places and game times?
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hoyaLS05
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Post by hoyaLS05 on Mar 9, 2011 18:14:38 GMT -5
I realize we have been playing only slightly better than DePaul lately, and probably worse than USF, but based on the rest of the field, I would be utterly shocked if we were an 8 and probably surprised if we were a 7. We have a top-15 RPI, No. 1 SOS, and eight top-50 wins. Just to sample some of the other teams in that range:
5 K St 21-9 RPI 18 SOS 4 Top 50: 3-6
6 T A&M 22-7 RPI 30 SOS 59 Top 50: 4-4
7 UNLV 23-7 RPI 26 SOS 39 Top 50: 3-6
8 Missou 21-9 RPI 32 SOS 52 Top 50: 4-6
Those are four teams -- one of each seed from 5-8 -- that we beat out on paper. Given that (1) last 10 games is supposedly no longer a factor and (2) we should get some sort of favorable bump, if only slight, because we did nearly half of our losing sans Chris Wright, I think a six seed is a very reasonable expectation.
All of that said, whether we can capitalize on favorable seeding is another story.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2011 18:35:53 GMT -5
The one reason I think we might drop to a #7, and i know this is shortsighted, is that our season just ended at 2pm Wednesday - i.e., lots of 6,7, and 8s are going to continue playing this weekend. A&M, UNLV, Temple, Mizzou, etc, those teams will likely win games, and there is nothing we can do between now and Sunday about it. What if Temple and UNLV play in their conference finals? That is not unlikely.
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Post by guway on Mar 9, 2011 18:42:39 GMT -5
who cares at this point? we are going to lose our next game
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 9, 2011 21:41:28 GMT -5
who cares at this point? we are going to lose our next game Love that great insight. Still waiting for a single post from you that is not anti-Hoya. Please go back to Syracuse, your Burger King shift starts at 6 a.m. |
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Post by cosmopolitanhoya on Mar 10, 2011 0:06:44 GMT -5
who cares at this point? we are going to lose our next game you dont belong here. |
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2011 7:39:09 GMT -5
WVU losing definitely helps us, Cincinnati winning did not. Lunardi moved Cincy to the 6 and us to the 7.
According to Bracket Matrix, the relevant teams are: Vandy, Temple, UCLA, UNLV, KSU, A&M, Cinci,
Would like to see some of those teams losing unexpectedly.
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ScreamingHoya
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Post by ScreamingHoya on Mar 10, 2011 8:37:04 GMT -5
First off, I think Lunardi has a job that a trained monkey could do most of the basketball season- bracketology really doesn't matter in December. That being said, he's quite good at what he does come tournament time- look at his record versus what the field actually looked like when announced by the committee. I don't think there's a chance that we get a 6 seed- we're a 7 seed all the way. We were a 6 before we played UCONN yesterday and after getting blown out by 17, we're not staying a 6 seed.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2011 9:32:14 GMT -5
Well, I love this stuff and could probably talk about it thru Sunday, but I think we will quite honestly be the hardest team to seed in the tourney. There are, of course, times when bracketologists are off by a seed or two, and I think many will be off on us. As was posted above, I find it hard to believe that a #7 or 8 seed has ever had 0 bad losses. The problem for us this year is that the teams around us, unfortunately, are the Big East teams who can make a case against us. The committee does love to reward OOC wins and scheduling. We'll see if that will pay off for us.
What I actually could see happening is us being with BYU. Sort of like a correction for both teams being unknown. BYU as a 2/3 and us as a 6/7.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 10, 2011 9:38:21 GMT -5
Unless we leak a practice video of CW dribbling Curly Neal style, we're a 7 seed at best. And though our season-long numbers support that seed, for the team that has played the last 2 weeks a 7 seed is very, very generous.
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Post by oakhead on Mar 10, 2011 9:38:22 GMT -5
Problem is, numbers do lie in the Hoyas case and the commitee will know this. We cannot hide behind the numbers any more-read Sally Jenkins et all. That effort in the first half especially will sink us to the 9/10 area. Hope I am wrong.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2011 9:44:42 GMT -5
It's hard to argue with your guys' points, but every one that is making that argument is doing so based on no empirical evidence. No team has ever been punished so significantly for an injury like this. Plus, again, it's not like DePaul wiped the floor with us. We lost to Syracuse, Cinci and UConn. IMO, if we end up as a #7 it will be because of what I said above. We bowed out too early and teams like Temple, UNLV, CINCI and KSU pick up more quality wins.
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biggmanu
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Post by biggmanu on Mar 10, 2011 9:47:23 GMT -5
If we had at least put up a fight against F-UConn we would be in 5/6 territory. But the way we lost, man, can't say we even deserve a 7 anymore.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 10, 2011 9:58:10 GMT -5
I expect a 7. If so, we will not be in Notre Dame's pod if they are a 2.
Most likely to Charlotte with UNC or Duke as 2, Tulsa with Texas as 2, or Denver with BYU as 2.
If committee looks at our recent margins of defeat and thinks we are done, they will make us the 7 in Charlotte, to ease the Sweet 16 path for UNC or Duke, but that also means we could get an underachieving major such as Washington or Tennessee or Michigan as the 10 because they would not want UNC or Duke to have to play Butler or Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the 2nd round.
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