How much will frosh improve?

[Cambridge]

I am curious to know what you guys think the real possiblities are for Jeff and Roy next year. I began to think about it last night and in order to take a look at what the future may have in store for Jeff and Roy, I took a glance back at the recent past.

I chose to look at Sweetney and Bowman's stats as a guide for two major reasons. I chose them, because while they overlap, both served as keystones of the respective team. They are the rocks upon which their respective teams were built. Secondly, they serve as representatives of Green and Hibbert. While Green is much more of a 4 than Bowman ever was, and Hibbs may be much more of a 5 than Sweets was, they are fairly good representatives of the players natural potential, work ethic, etc. Therefore, I thought it would be interesting to look at how both these players adjusted their games over their first three years, in order to determine how much Green and Hibbert may improve in their second year as Hoyas.

Here are the numbers for the Sweets, Bowman, Green and Hibbert:

Sweets	Frosh	Soph	Junior	Bobo	Frosh	Soph	Junior	Frosh	Green	Hibbert
MPG	24.2	30.4	32.4	MPG	23.9	34.7	33.7	MPG	34.2	17.1
PPG	12.8	19.0	22.8	PPG	7.6	15.9	15.4	PPG	13.2	5.6
RPG	7.4	10.0	10.4	RPG	4.5	8.2	6.2	RPG	6.8	3.8
APG	1.8	1.7	1.9	APG	1.5	1.9	2.0	APG	2.9	1.0
TOs	2.3	3.1	2.1	TOs	2.1	3.7	2.5	TOs	2.4	2.0
BPG	0.69	1.65	3.2	BPG	0.41	1.3	0.9	BPG	1.4	1.3
SPG	0.78	0.86	1.5	SPG	1.1	2.0	1.4	SPG	1.0	0.4
FG%	.516	.567	.547	FG%	.383	.428	.503	FG%	.498	.479
FT%	.619	.789	.738	FT%	.741	.702	.702	FT%	.679	.639
				3PT	.182	.323	.364	3PT	.392
FGA	308	326	483	FGA	248	376	296	FGA	248	117
FTA	168	231	336	FTA	77	134	104	FTA	77	61

As you can see, Sweetney and Bowman had huge leaps in scoring. They went from 12.8 and 7.6 points respectively to 19.0 and 15.9. This of course was due to two major factors. The first was a dramatic increase in minutes. Sweetney gained just over 6 and Bowman nearly 11 minutes per game. That alone makes up for most of their increased productivity. This bodes well, for Hibbert, as he only got 17.1 MPG this year. If he gets just seven more minutes per game, we would see a dramatic increase in his productivity. Jeff, however, will probably not see more time; in fact, hopefully he will see less time. This means that increased scoring must come from increased efficiency and aggressive play.

Both Bowman and Sweetney saw dramatic increases in their FG% between their Freshman and Sophomore years. Sweetney and Bowman gained roughly 5%. If Green and Hibbert can get that kind of growth over the summer, they will be shooting 55% and 53% respectively. That alone would seriously boost their point totals. If they manage to increases their point per minute averages, at the same clip as Sweetney and Bowman did -- then we will have a very scary front line.

Third factor, Bobo and Sweets took an increasing number of shots each year as they became more aggressive and comfortable on the floor. While Jeff is proficient at this currently, there is no reason to believe that he won't see his opportunities rise as better guards and forwards arrive to take some of the heat off him. Also, increased minutes for Hibbert, will help prevent teams from packing the zone in around Jeff, freeing up space and allowing him and Hibbs more opportunities. I see them both taking considerably more FG attempts next year, and at the higher rate they will be hitting them, well, the points should increase fairly dramatically.

Also, neither Green nor Hibbs managed to get to the line very often. Many have blamed the system on this, which to a large degree this is true, however it is also clear that having two freshmen hold down the front court will lead to a lot less calls. Not even Sweets was able to get to the line all that often as a Freshman, which is surprising considering he has one of the highest fouled per possession ratios in college and in the NBA. A large factor in this is probably a combination of the lack of respect freshmen get from the officials, undeveloped post moves and footwork, early foul trouble of their own that limits their aggression and a lack of physical strength. If Green and Hibbert can work on their footwork, strength and tenacity around the basket they should see their trips to the line increase significantly.

Another factor that bodes well for Green: three-point shooting. He already has an incredible touch for a big man. Look at Bobo's numbers for his freshman year compared to Jeff's. Wow. This, coupled with more chances at the free-throw line, will be the key to Jeff dramatically increasing his scoring over the next couple years. If he gets that percentage up a touch to a shade over 40% and takes more of them...well, quite frankly I don't know how you stop him.

Another key to our future is rebounding. As we can see, Sweetney and Brandon improved quite a bit over the years. But not as dramatically as they did in the scoring department. However, with stronger guard play and better technique under their belts, Green and Hibbert should see improvement in this vital category.

Similarly, in regards to defense, watch as Green and Hibbert improve their defensive work. Freshmen are typically pretty spotty defenders who pick up cheap fouls too easily. This was certainly the case late in the season for Jeff and Roy, who found themselves in foul trouble more and more regularly down the stretch. We will see this improve as the increased talent at the guard spots and their improved footwork will help to limit the number of forays into the lane. Also, look for dramatic improvements their blocks per game averages. Need proof. Look at the dramatic increase by Boone and Villeneuva at UConn. A year experience and a summer to work on it, will definitely see this stat rise dramatically.

So, long story short, here is what I forsee as their potential statlines for next year.

Stats	Green	Hibbert
MPG	32.0	25.0
PPG	19.5	11.5
RPG	8.5	7.0
BPG	2.5	3.5
FG%	.550	.530
FT%	.710	.680
3PT	.410
FGA	375	225
FTA	150	125

What thinks ye?

[TrueHoyaBlue]

I'll take it. ;D

I had looked at Brandon's pts and rebounds numbers and how they have had a slight decline from last year's totals, and had wondered how much was due to reduced possessions, but I didn't realized how much his FG% from both 2 and 3 had improved.

[nychoya3]

The econ major in me finds some fault in your methodology (cough, sample size, cough), but the Hoya fan in me thinks you're dead on!

I'd be happy with 16.5 and 9 from Jeff, and 8 and 10 from Roy. I think your estimates are pretty much the upper edge of expectations. Jeff's offensive repetoire will have to improve a lot for him to average close to 20 a game. That's a level that BE stars like Craig Smith, Warrick, and Gomes didn't touch as sophomores, and none of them played in one of the 25 slowest offenses in the country.

[Cambridge]

Oh I agree 100% about sample size and optimism. I think the one factor that I neglected to mention as why I decided to be so optimistic was the dramatic improvement players have had over the course of the season (specifically Hibbert) that I can only imagine that JTIII and staff will help the players improve much more over the summer than Esh ever could have.

As for sample size, well, you're totally right...but then again, this is just pseudo-science and speculation -- not economics...wait, isn't that what economics is? ;D

[YB]

I think they will improve their stats, but in different ways.

You rightly pointed out the disparity in FT shots. I think this summer that will be a big project, working with our illustrious NBA alums.

The other way will be conditioning and muscle gain. Both Green and Hibbert have at times gotten winded or less aggressive- I think they will be better served- and play better D- by being a little less light in the rear.

[HoyaSox04]

Agree with you YB about the summer of conditioning, plus add in the fact that hopefully they'll be playing less minutes next year with our increased depth.

I also think a big factor, connected to conditioning, is that a summer on campus, with weight training every day, is going to be a huge bonus for Roy especially, and also Jeff. I think that Roy, on a full-time weight-lifting program, will finally begin to develop into his body and get that added muscle he's gonna need to bang down low next year. Also, Jeff and a summer of serious weights? Can you say B-E-A-S-T?

[YB]

I had the exact same thought Hoyasawx- imagine these guys on weights? With Roy's height and surprising agility, and NOT getting backed down by opposing bigs? And Jeff, with all his skills, being able to muscle up on someone the way Gomes did on us the other night?

Beastly indeed.

Hopefully Cornelio stays and does the same- could you imagine this team with some more depth up front? Scary good.

[HoyaAlbany]

I think there are 2 factors that will significantly impact Jeff's explosion to the next level. First is the (hopefully) improved outside shooting. This would undoubtedly open things up for both Green and Roy, resulting in more touches and better chances. Secondly - and I don't think this can be overemphasized - is the confidence and the mental attidtude that a year under his belt, and asummer of hard work on and off the court, will bring. There have been a number of games when Jeff started very tentatively, possibly in deference to the other guys on the team, particularly the veterans, or possibly because we were working especially hard to establish the offense. However, there have also been a number of games - the Prov. game being the latest example - when he has taken over late, finally exerting his will on the entire game. Sweets used to be able to do the same thing, and I think we will see Jeff have the confidence to do it from the start more often next year. As for Roy - I think as he grows into his size and hammers the weights, we will see him start to emerge as a sometimes dominant force next year, to be followed by an appearance on the Big East first team in his junior season.

[SFHoya99]

Bobo and Mike got a lot of their extra points from extra shots. I can't see a team that plays at our pace, returning all five starters, seeing that kind of boost for both Hibbs and Bowman.

We'll score more than last year, but that much more? The only way I see is if we go straight into Sacramento Kings mode. Which I suppose is possible.

My hope is that Roy's improvement is in rebounding and D.

How's these for comps?

Jeff as Jr. Reggie Williams:

17.9 ppg, 8 rpg

and Roy as soph. Ruben:

8.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3 bpg

or on the top end:

Jr. Mutombo:

10.7 ppg, 10 rpg, 4 bpg

Neat post, Cambridge.

[Cambridge]

I wasn't thinking about picking up the pace, just that I foresee both players getting a bunch more three point opportunities. If they improve their footwork and teamwork, they will see the number of and-one chances increase dramatically. I can not emphasize how much this will increase our scoring without changing the pace of the game.

For example, if Jeff shoots 150 free throws next year, that's an extra 3 a game. Two of those fall and we've got ourselves 2 more points a game for Jeff -- roughly 15.2 PPG -- without increasing the speed of the offense at all. Same for Hibbs.

If Hibbs got 125 trips to the line next year, he'd have 41 more points next year...that's adding an extra 1.5 points a game, just from the line, with the clock stopped.

Similarly, if they increase their field goal %, even by just 5%, that will significantly increase their scoring without relying on a change of pace.

Not to mention that hopefully improved rebounding will inevitably lead to increased put backs and easier baskets for the both of them.

And the best part, none of this is predicated on us running a faster offense...just a more efficient one (read more rebounds and drawing more fouls).

[AvantGuardHoya]

Interesting thread, Cantabridgian.... Methinks, tho, that Jeff's improvement will be more incremental than Roy's. Just a feeling. Seems like da big fella has so much more room to grow, so I suspect he'll have a bigger statistical bounce next year. We'll see, right?

[EasyEd]

Can you do a similar comparison of Wallace with someone (Smitty, Braswell)?

[Omega]

There numbers will most certainly increase. The slow down style the Hoyas currently play is predicated on the personel and not the system. The current crop of recuits provide a glimpse of what JT3 is trying to do on the Hilltop. Once JT3 gets his players in, the Hoyas will move to a more uptempo style of play (see Sacremento Kings, NJ Nets or the Wash Wizards). JT2 and 3 have hinted to this in the past. The 2004-05 Hoyas will look nothing like the 06-07 Hoyas. As a result, there will be more touches for Green and Hibbert.