The Dance and Reality

[AustinHoya03]

There are 64 bids to the tournament: 31 conference bids and 33 at-large bids. There are currently 33 teams who are pretty much assured one of the at-larges (if they fail to win their conference tournament) based on their regular season records. They are:

UNC
Wake Forest
Duke
Boston College
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pitt
Illinois
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Texas
Univ. of the Pacific
Lousiville
Cincinnati
Charlotte
Southern Illinois
Utah
Arizona
Washington
UCLA
Stanford
Kentucky
Florida
Alabama
LSU
Mississippi State
Gonzaga
Nevada

There are also a number of teams on the bubble, including Georgetown. Our competition:

Vermont: RPI 23, 22-6 (16-2)
Miami (OH): RPI 27, 18-9 (12-6)
St. Mary’s(CA): RPI 31, 24-7 (11-3)
Wichita State: RPI 37, 20-8 (12-6)
Georgia Tech: RPI 38, 17-10 (8-8)
Old Dominion: RPI 40, 26-5 (15-3)
Minnesota: RPI 46, 20-9 (10-6)
UTEP: RPI 48, 24-7 (14-4)
Maryland: RPI 49, 16-11 (7-9)
DePaul: RPI 58, 18-9 (10-6)
Vanderbilt: RPI 60, 18-12 (8-8)
Iowa State: RPI 62, 17-10 (9-7)
UAB: RPI 64, 20-9 (10-6)
West Virginia: RPI 65, 18-9 (8-8)
Indiana: RPI 66, 15-12 (10-6)
Notre Dame: RPI 75, 17-10 (9-7)
St. Joseph’s: RPI 78, 17-10 (14-2)
George Washington: RPI 80, 19-7 (11-5)
GEORGETOWN: RPI 92, 16-11 (8-8)
Virginia Tech: RPI 116, 15-12 (8-8)

That's 20 teams. One gets in whenever one of the expected at-large bid teams wins a conference tournament, moving them to the conference bid column. When a conference tournament is won by an underdog, a bubble bursts. SIU lost today, so that's one bubble down.

The following are the conferences where one of the expected at-large bid teams will most likely win the tournament, because of multiple expected at-large bid teams:

ACC
Big East
Big Ten
Big 12
Big West
Conference USA
Pac-10
SEC

Bubble teams' chances can increase if the favored team wins the following tournaments as well:

Big West (Pacific)
Mountain West (Utah)
WAC (Nevada)
West Coast (Gonzaga)

We should also root for favored teams to win the following tournaments, as it would decrease the number of bubble teams

A-10 (St. Joseph's or G. Washington)
CAA (Old Dominion)
MAC (Miami(OH)

So, best case scenario, only 12 of the 17-20 bubble teams are likely to get in, barring any unexpected tournament runs by bubble teams combined with first round tourney losses by expected at-large bid teams. Of the bubble teams listed above, Georgetown has the second-lowest RPI and fewer wins than most teams.

Meaning: Georgetown HAS to win its first round game against Seton Hall and its second round game against UCONN, and maybe even one more (against Syracuse or Notre Dame) to be legitimately considered for a dance slot. And even that might not do it.

The Hoyas shouldn't give up on a dance card just yet, but the NIT is looking like a pretty sure thing based on the numbers.

[YB]

Agreed. I don't hink it's realistic unless we win at least 2 in the BET.

[AustinHoya03]

Correction to the above post: numbers are off slightly, as there are 65 tourney bids, not 64. Forgot about the play-in game.

Also, bubble-bursting conference tourney first/second round matchups to watch (second round games assume the first team beating a cellar-dweller in the first round):

ACC:
Maryland v. Clemson
Va. Tech v. Ga. Tech

Big Ten
Indiana v. Minnesota

Big 12
Iowa State v. Tex. Tech (2nd round)
Texas A&M v. KU (2nd round)

CUSA:
DePaul v. UAB (2nd round)

SEC:
Vanderbilt v. LSU (2nd round)

[sweetney50]

I really can't see us making the dance unless we win the BET. Maybe if we get to the finals but that's a big maybe. The commitee would have to completely forget about the regular season and how we lost five in a row. Also, with our tournament lives hanging in the balance, we go out and lose to the worst team in the BE at home. NIT BOUND AGAIN!!

[SFHoya99]

We need to make it to the Finals, likely.

[AllyI]

I think it is pretty simple.
We make the finals of the BET and we are definately in. It will almost surely mean having beaten two top 25, maybe top 15 teams, on a nuetral floor. 2 wins would put us solidly on the bubble and getting in would depend on what happens with other bubble teams/expected conf. tourney winners. But I don't know how we could beat UCONN at this point. Couldn't be a tougher second round opponent.

[aggypryd]

Unfortunately, with SIU losing in the conference tourney, another at large bid disappeared...they'll probably get one...

Hopefully ODU will beat VCU and there are no surprises from the other mid-major conferences where we expect them to receive only one bid...

[Fan Of The Game]

Unfortunately Oral Roberts lost to upstart Oakland, who at 12-18 will have the worst record of any team in the tournament. Slightly hurts our resume.

[lichoya68]

i thnk if we win the big east tourney.. we dance you can take that to the bank ... otherwise not so sure ... probably if we get to the finals as talked about above.. with quality wins and turnaround ...we would make it ... dont think even uconn win would do it.. just my thoughts as i sit here unable to sleep... waiting for the train to ny ...go hoyas.. beat the hall ...and then uconn .... and then who knows.. its march!!

[SaxaCD]

if we get to the Finals, I'm almost positive we'll get in. I'm just worrying about beating Seton Hall and ending the losing streak, though. I'll think about winning two if we win tonight, but not beforehand.

[HoyaSox04]

lichoya68 said:

i thnk if we win the big east tourney.. we dance you can take that to the bank ... otherwise not so sure ... probably if we get to the finals as talked about above.. with quality wins and turnaround ...we would make it ... dont think even uconn win would do it.. just my thoughts as i sit here unable to sleep... waiting for the train to ny ...go hoyas.. beat the hall ...and then uconn .... and then who knows.. its march!!

Uhhh, Lic? I think if we win the BET, we would go to the Tourney no matter what. I mean, I don't think you need to take your prediction to the bank.

I hope your endless cheering leads a renewed and invigorated GTown all the way to the NCAA's and beyond!

[coachmcguirk]

I just want them to win one freakin' game -- going to the NIT on a six-game skid is depressing.

[nodak89]

coachmcguirk said:

I just want them to win one freakin' game -- going to the NIT on a six-game skid is depressing.

If it's depressing for us (which it IS!), then how much more does the team want/need to win another game?

[Frank Black]

This is a fun discussion but we have approximately no chance to beat UConn so the point is moot.

[HoyaSox04]

Well, Frank, knew I could always count on you to ruin a good mood going around - thanks man, much appreciated.

[Cambridge]

I'm just going to listen to David Bowie's "Let's Dance" for the rest of the day and make offerings to whichever deities will listen...

Is it too greedy for us to ask that we win the BET?

[gopaland]

CambridgeHoya said:

I'm just going to listen to David Bowie's "Let's Dance" for the rest of the day and make offerings to whichever deities will listen...

Is it too greedy for us to ask that we win the BET?

If you need a break from Let's Dance, there is always the song by Men without Hats (I think its called the Safety Dance), "We can dance if we want to, we can leave Maryland behind"

[SFHoya99]

gopaland said:

If you need a break from Let's Dance, there is always the song by Men without Hats (I think its called the Safety Dance), "We can dance if we want to, we can leave Maryland behind"

It is the Safety Dance, and the video is sort of a medieval midget montage.

"cuz your friends don't dance and if they don't dance well they're no friends of mine."

Everybody look at your hands.

[Fan Of The Game]

Isn't the NIT the safety dance?

[gopaland]

Fan said:

Isn't the NIT the safety dance?

Nah the NIT is more like one of those dances at a non-coed school where they bus in the opposite gender. Half-way through the night after everyone has milled around their half of the dance floor for a while (after Selection Sunday is over) a couple of the guys/girls pair off togther for a few songs (the NIT).