Halftime Bubble Board

[GIGAFAN99]

Still not on it after loss. This bodes well for us. One, I can't see us losing out the string so we'll at least be in the running at 9-7 heading into the BET. Two, there is a bias for teams who are assumed in and have to "play their way out" this late in the year.

No doom or gloom yet. We're still in as of now and just have to get back on track.

[FLHoya]

I just found it to be one of the most hysterical things ever when they put 14-10 (7-6) Virginia Tech on the "In" side of that Bubble Board. At that point, blood started shooting out of my ears and I passed out over the top of my coffee table. Once I regained consciousness, I went onto CollegeRPI out of curiosity just to check what Va. Tech's RPI was as of this morning:

One hundred.

[FOTP]

I agree with you. VA Tech played an awful schedule...and lost some of those.

The interesting this is Lunardi has them in the tournament too as the last 4 in and a 13 seed.

It will be a nice test case...a 100 RPI is brutal.

[Jack]

The way Digger and Jarvis do the big board, they will have to add another round to the tournament. GU's RPI is now over 50, even if the ESPN guys don't say it now, the Hoyas are in real trouble and must win 3 more games to feel safe. I know the RPI is merely a crude tool that is skewed by a new formula this year, but that new formula is there for a reason, and it is designed to help the mid-majors who go on the road more often. I disagree with a formula that does not put the best teams in the tournament, but if they don't make it Georgetown will be able to look at a loss at St. John's and a loss to Oral Roberts for where it went wrong.

[TBird41]

Jack said:

The way Digger and Jarvis do the big board, they will have to add another round to the tournament. GU's RPI is now over 50, even if the ESPN guys don't say it now, the Hoyas are in real trouble and must win 3 more games to feel safe. I know the RPI is merely a crude tool that is skewed by a new formula this year, but that new formula is there for a reason, and it is designed to help the mid-majors who go on the road more often. I disagree with a formula that does not put the best teams in the tournament, but if they don't make it Georgetown will be able to look at a loss at St. John's and a loss to Oral Roberts for where it went wrong.

So what would the RPI likely be if we
1) beat Nova and PC
or
2) beat UConn and PC

[FOTP]

Probably in the 50's somewhere. If we go 1-2 then it is 70.

Squarely on the bubble.

[lichoya68]

WE CAN NEVER TRUST THOSO GUYS ANYWAY WHO KNOW WHAT NOT BEING IN OR OUT MEANS... DEFINITE IN OR DEFINITE OUT WHO KNOWS WE GOTTA BEAT NOVA TO START AND THEN EVEN THEN IT AINT OVER EVEN IF THATS OUR NINTH WIN GO HOYAS BEAT NOVA thanks uconn for making the nders lose six there are below us now lets keep it that way.. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

[GIGAFAN99]

We're 50 depending on the calculation now and if we go 2-1 versus #99, #14, and #22 we'd drop "into the 50s"?

No way. 2-1 keeps our winning percentage absolutely level and our SOS improves with those three games. If we go 2-1 we're definitely in the 40s. If 1 of those 2 is at UConn, we're in the 30s.

Anything under 50, I think we're definitely in. Right now the top 52 strictly by RPI would be in (34 at-larges and 18 conference champs). And when it comes down to resume, we still have three wins versus tourney teams on the road and one fellow bubble team at home. Teams like Akron, Wichita St, Buffalo, Arkansas Little Rock or even a team like Florida do not have that resume. So while RPI is nice, it is definitely not the whole story, especially with the new calculation. A team like NC State is still in the running despite an #82 RPI because they've beaten quality teams.

[HoyaFanNY]

just more acc love from espn. the other day they said the acc was guaranteed 6 bids. i nearly passed out.

[ArlingtonHoya]

GIGAFAN99 said:

We're 50 depending on the calculation now and if we go 2-1 versus #99, #14, and #22 we'd drop "into the 50s"?

No way. 2-1 keeps our winning percentage absolutely level and our SOS improves with those three games. If we go 2-1 we're definitely in the 40s. If 1 of those 2 is at UConn, we're in the 30s.

Anything under 50, I think we're definitely in. Right now the top 52 strictly by RPI would be in (34 at-larges and 18 conference champs). And when it comes down to resume, we still have three wins versus tourney teams on the road and one fellow bubble team at home. Teams like Akron, Wichita St, Buffalo, Arkansas Little Rock or even a team like Florida do not have that resume. So while RPI is nice, it is definitely not the whole story, especially with the new calculation. A team like NC State is still in the running despite an #82 RPI because they've beaten quality teams.

For whatever it's worth, my calculations project a slightly different set of RPI scenarios:

1. Our SOS will actually fall slightly over these last three games, as is shown in the "Projected RPI" section of collegerpi.com.

2. We'd actually fare better by winning both home games than by winning one and beating UConn on the road. This is due to the impact of the home/away factor used in calculating our "adjusted record" in the new RPI formula, where home losses and road wins are weighted more heavily. Since our current record is over .500, we'd prefer to add 0.6 wins and 0.6 losses than 1.4 wins and 1.4 losses.

3. In my projections, we would have a final RPI ranking around 55th if we earn 3 more wins against VU, Prov and in the first round of the BET.

4. If we beat UConn instead of VU or Prov in that scenario, we would end up around 58th.

5. We would end up around 72nd if our only remaining wins were against Providence and in the first round of the BET.

6. If we were to beat Prov and VU, lose to UConn and lose in the first round of the BET, our ranking would be around 62.

All of these scenarios involve assumptions as to whether we'd get a bye in the BET (and what impact that would have on our SOS), but they should still be pretty accurate. My guess is that we'd be in under scenarios 3, 4 and 6, but not under 5. 6 is very, very close.

[FOTP]

This is dead on right. Even if we win 2 out of 3 AND win in round 1 of the Big East (assumes one of the wins is Prov) then our RPI is in the 50's. That puts us square on the bubble no matter what people want to say.