2006 - a turnover puzzle

[GIGAFAN99]

Offensive turnover percentage rank by year:

2005: 203rd
2006: 35th
2007: 213th
2008: 192nd
2009: 247th
2010: 204th

So you probably know where this is going in that one of these things is not like the other. The question is why?

Here's a few things I was thinking. Want to see everyone else's ideas.

1. Conservativism. It's no secret Darrel Owens' highlights were regularly broadcast on Fox News. DO was never one to pull the trigger early or take any chances.

2. The set play. Of all the years we've played under III this was really the only one where the set play was heavily featured. Think back to the Navy game when Roy got the ball the first 94 (unofficial) time in a row. That wasn't "running our stuff." That was a series of called plays for the big guy.

3. Mid-range warriors and throw-dribble kings. I bring this up because our 2-pt percentage suffered a bit (and I mean a very small bit) that year. The Ashanti step-back and Brandon's rolls to the hoops didn't always go in, but they did go in enough to be effective so we didn't have to force an extra pass.

4. The secondary break. This has been disucssed in previous years. We have a lot of guys who can throw themselves at the hoop during a primary break but the calm kick-out to the trailer seems to be missing. DO was a big finisher of this one in 2006.

So can the 2010 Hoyas use any of these lessons from 2006? Can someone set-up his man for a step back and drill it? Can the Hoyas not try to thread a needle with 16 seconds lieft on the shot clock? Is there a place for just calling more plays?

I don't know the answer but what does everyone think? Statheads, where are you?

[CO_Hoya]

Dec 20, 2009 13:25:33 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Statheads, where are you?

Having discussed it ad nauseum (link, link, link, etc.) we're now sitting in our mom's basement with the lights off.

[SFHoya99]

Somewhat agree, Giga. If there's one thing to point out during Thompson's era that has been a weakness, it is turnovers. And I completely agree that patience is lacking.

To your list, I'd also add the now completely gone, drop off pass from center to guard for NBA line three we used to run like crazy. Virtually no chance of losing the ball. Not sure we have some to make the shot, though.

While I don't think you are wrong anywhere, I do think that there doesn't (necessarily) need to be widespread change. Not to say what you mention wouldn't work (and yes, I'd kill for a pass on the break), but in my current job we talk a lot about cutting off the tail.

In short, if you have a distribution, instead of trying to shift the whole thing, you focus on the really poor performing items and fix or eliminate those.

I don't know how applicable it is, but it seems to me that in addition to all the forced passes inside, etc., there's a whole lot of stupid turnovers. Lazy passes around the perimeter. Get the D rebound and turn it over. Not quite looking drop offs that get picked.

Like FTs, I think it is a focus thing. Some of that is inherent in passing a lot. I get that. But we 5 or so turnovers yesterday that were just awful. I especially remember when Clark or Hollis tried to force the ball into the high post when the offensive player was surrounded by three defenders. Someone else is open!

I'd love to see us run the pick and roll, or at least more set plays, like UCLA cuts, etc. This may all be part of learning and they will be stronger for it, but it does seem like we rush a lot.

[GIGAFAN99]

Dec 20, 2009 13:37:05 GMT -5 CO_Hoya said:

Dec 20, 2009 13:25:33 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Statheads, where are you?

Having discussed it ad nauseum (link, link, link, etc.) we're now sitting in our mom's basement with the lights off.

Excellent. Now the fun part: pure speculation, I mean qualitative analysis.

So why and how? How does this team reduce its turnovers. It's not playing slower, it's not shooting more threes, so how can we get closer to the simpler time that was 2006?

[GIGAFAN99]

Dec 20, 2009 13:42:07 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Somewhat agree, Giga. If there's one thing to point out during Thompson's era that has been a weakness, it is turnovers. And I completely agree that patience is lacking.

To your list, I'd also add the now completely gone, drop off pass from center to guard for NBA line three we used to run like crazy. Virtually no chance of losing the ball. Not sure we have some to make the shot, though.

While I don't think you are wrong anywhere, I do think that there doesn't (necessarily) need to be widespread change. Not to say what you mention wouldn't work (and yes, I'd kill for a pass on the break), but in my current job we talk a lot about cutting off the tail.

In short, if you have a distribution, instead of trying to shift the whole thing, you focus on the really poor performing items and fix or eliminate those.

I don't know how applicable it is, but it seems to me that in addition to all the forced passes inside, etc., there's a whole lot of stupid turnovers. Lazy passes around the perimeter. Get the D rebound and turn it over. Not quite looking drop offs that get picked.

Like FTs, I think it is a focus thing. Some of that is inherent in passing a lot. I get that. But we 5 or so turnovers yesterday that were just awful. I especially remember when Clark or Hollis tried to force the ball into the high post when the offensive player was surrounded by three defenders. Someone else is open!

I'd love to see us run the pick and roll, or at least more set plays, like UCLA cuts, etc. This may all be part of learning and they will be stronger for it, but it does seem like we rush a lot.

Yeah the UCLA cut and pick and roll are exactly the types of plays I was thinking. It just seems like after a few looks within the offense aren't there, we just say "Well I've got to throw it sometime" and it goes right into the teeth of a sagging defense.

That's the kind of thing we didn't seem to do in '06 and in subsequent years got away with because risk/reward with Jeff throwing the pass was pretty good and we cleaned the offensive glass on so many misses, it didn't hurt us.

[SFHoya99]

Yep -- I also think back to when the the post man would hold it and two or three guys would cut -- not just one and done.

I really don't know if it is a coaching change or lack or patience or whatever. And on the unforced errors (of which we seem to have more than the other guys), I really have no answer.

[strummer8526]

My biggest frustration is how many of our turnovers came, not from an errant bounce pass to a cutter or a bad entry pass, but just involved throwing the ball out of bounds or careless dribbling.

I think this year and last year involved a lot of carelessness with the ball, not problems with running the offense.

[adlai]

One thing that is lost in the turnover discussion, especially when considering the Princeton offense, is good versus bad turnovers. Jeff comes to mind most clearly on this. He generally seemed to lead the team in turnovers, but he was also very high in assists. Many of his turnovers were trying to thread the needle, which if the pass went through generally led to a layup. Assuming the layup was always converted, then having some of these passes intercepted is really not the end of the world. If it goes through 60%-70% of the time, on average this leads to a good outcome. I think of these as productive turnovers as given the importance of passing and movement, these turnovers are going to happen in the Princeton, but I tend to think of them as no worse than taking a low(er) percentage shot which is more common in another type of offense.

What is really problematic this year is that relatively few of the turnovers seem to have been of this variety. Last night in particular, many turnovers were not forced. That to me is a different issue than the number of turnovers overall. What concerns me more is that the percentage of assists relative to made baskets has been much lower than in years past. We're not getting a whole lot of shots from good ball movement. That, combined with the same number of turnovers implies that this year is different from other years with high turnovers as they have been unproductive. That is certainly something which must be worked on as the year goes on.

[lichoya68]

not sure i understand what the discussion it about but they were just FREAKING LAZY AND SLOPPY YUP LAZY AND SLOPPY they can do much better than that and NEED TO TO BEAT MR. LIN AND HARVARD.. PS HARVARD IS ONE OF THE FEW SCHOOLS TO HAVE EXAMS after the break yup after the christmass break not sure what that means for them or us go hoyas ;D ;D

[CO_Hoya]

Free statistical analysis

Instead of writing a short post over at HP, I'll just dump it here.

What's the difference between 2006 and other seasons? Dunno.

But there is a big difference between this season and others:

Season  TO Rate  St Rate   DB TOs
2005     21.9      11.6     10.3
2006     18.8       8.6     10.2
2007     22.0      11.3     10.7
2008     21.2      11.1     10.1
2009     21.6      10.9     10.7
2010     21.7      13.9      7.8

St Rate is steal rate for the offense (% of possessions that end in a steal).
DB TOs is simply (TO Rate - St Rate) = % of possessions that end with a turnover where the ball is dead.

DB TOs allow for the defense to set up, steals often do not.

Draw your own conclusions.

[adlai]

Thanks for posting this, CO. This hits at the exact problem this year in terms of bad turnovers. We have a much higher rate of steals. If this were the result of greater passing leading to more easy buckets than in years past, the assist rate should also be up. Given that it is also down, it seems that we are not moving the ball well while making a lot of dumb turnovers. I would be more or less okay if we were making more turnovers but getting more easy baskets at the same time, but it's clearly not the case. In fact, we have assists on almost 10% fewer baskets than in say 2005 or 2006. Clearly, as I think is evident from just watching the games, these are not productive turnovers associated with the Princeton offense.

[OldHoyafan]

A lot of the turnovers so far have been a steal of perimeter passes made by the Hoya guards. At first glance it seems as though the passing guard is just making a lazy pass that gets intercepted. However, those who know better correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the Princeton offense require player to dribble towards teammate. The teammate then goes backdoor if there is an overplay, or moves toward player dribbling to receive a pass. What is happening a lot is the defense takes the first option(backdoor cut) away but the
hoya player being dribbled at does not move toward the dribber. The dribbler throws a soft pass expecting him to meet the ball, but the ball is intercepted by defender who has maintained the same defensive position. In other words the receiver of a pass can be just as at fault as the passer. Also noticed that Wright does not make but one cut through the lane per possession. I don't know if this is to keep court balanced or what.

[mapei]

I wonder if the apparent TO/steal differential this season is illusory because we haven't started conference play yet.

[bmartin]

What was Ashanti Cook's TO rate in 2006?

Edit: I looked it up: 19.2

[TC]

I just looked, here's some ideas :

- Senior PG (Ashanti Cook)
- Seven man rotation vs. 9-10 man rotation - if you look, in 2005-2006, Egerson got 145 minutes, no other player other than the 7 man rotation cracked 100 minutes that season. It might not sound like a huge difference, but look at how many people got minutes last year.
- Sapp turned the ball over *a lot* less in 2005-2006 than he did as a senior

[Coast2CoastHoya]

A opp steal rate of 13.9 puts the Hoyas at 338/347 in that category (kenpom). That can't be good at all.

[prhoya]

Those yearly rankings are insane. It's either very good or very bad with JT3's teams. I'd settle for a consistent 80-100 ranking.

[Grandpa]

Dec 21, 2009 9:39:59 GMT -5 Coast2CoastHoya said:

A opp steal rate of 13.9 puts the Hoyas at 338/347 in that category (kenpom). That can't be good at all.

One of the more frustrating elements of the high steal rate against is the fact that the opposition generate a lot of them without needing to "gamble". It seems we've been making it too easy for the other teams to take away valuable possessions and get easy points in transition as a result.

Not to make an excuse, but this could still be somewhat related to the relative "experience" of team, something we are ranked 288th (1.33 years) out of 347 according to Pomeroy. For 2008-09 our experience was ranked 317th (1.11 years), so that wouldn't directly explain why there's been increased steals against.