If we were to meet GW in the NCAAs...

[Cambridge]

Thinking about a possible meetup in the Tourney. I think it would be a great game:

TJ Thompson (5'10" 180 lbs) 30.3 mpg
14.1ppg 2.2rpg 3.4apg 1.5spg
43.8%fg 76.1%ft 43.0%tp

Vs

Jonathan Wallace (6'1" 178 lbs) 31.9 mpg
7.3ppg 2.1rpg 2.3apg 1.3spg
40.3%fg 78.8%ft 38.6%tp

Edge: Thompson
Although Wallace has an edge in size, Thompson's fire, hustle and deadly shot give him the edge in this one. Thompson, in so many ways, is GW. When he is on, the team is nearly impossible to beat, when he's off, it's a very long night. Weird matchup though as Thompson is really an undersized shooting guard while Wallace is a pure point with a nasty outside shot.

Guards
Carl Elliot (6'4" 220 lbs) 28.5 mpg
9.0ppg 4.2rpg 4.8apg 3.1spg
49.6%fg 63.0%ft 38.7%tp

Vs.

Ashanti Cook (6'2" 180 lbs) 32.2 mpg
11.5ppg 2.7rpg 2.4apg 1.2spg
41.9%fg 83.3%ft 39.3%tp

Slight Edge: Elliot
Although recently Ashanti has been turning it on, as of now Carl Elliot is a much more impressive player. Also another strange matchup as Elliot is more of the PG than TJ, but he's a BIG PG. He is a tough assignment for any guard to matchup with due to his size and great court vision. He plays very smart and his defensive tenacity would also be a problem for Ashanti. However, if the balls out Ashanti showed up, the one who dropped 25 points on Kruaser...well I would have to change my mind, but it's not as likely as Elliot handling Ashanti. He's just too strong and smart.

Small Forwards
JR Pinock (6'5" 207 lbs) 30.0 mpg
13.8ppg 5.3rpg 2.3apg 1.6spg .6bpg
48.6%fg 82.5%ft 27.3%tp

Vs

Brandon Bowman (6'8 219 lbs)
15.3ppg 6.7rpg 2.2apg 1.6spg 1.0bpg
49.8%fg 70.5%ft 34.7%tp

Edge: Bowman
Both play similar roles and are providers of BIG dunks and the occasional bonehead play. However while JR is much quicker and has a slightly better handle, Bowman possesses a three-point game, a developing mid-range game, a LOT more size and is a better defender...so he gets the nod.

Power Forwards
Omar Williams (6'9 190 lbs) 26.5 mpg
10.0ppg 4.7rpg 2.2apg 1.0spg .8bpg
48.4%fg 79.1%ft 25.0%tp

Vs

Jeff Green (6'8" 225 lbs) 34.2 mpg
13.2ppg 7.2rpg 2.8apg 1.0spg 1.5bpg
49.3%fg 64.5%ft 38.1%tp

Edge: Green
While Omar is one of my favorite players on the Colonials and is a difficult player for most teams to matchup against, in this case he would matchup with the best rookie in the Big East, if not the country. You could make strong arguments that Green deserves a spot on the first team All-Big East. Green does everything, dribble drives, rebounds, posts up, shoots the three...all packaged in an NBA body and with the requisite "upside." He is impossible to guard...

Centers
Pops Mensah Bonsu (6'9" 240 lbs) 24.6 mpg 13.2ppg 6.9rpg 0.6apg 1.0spg 1.9bpg
59.1%fg 59.3%ft

Vs Roy Hibbert (7'2" 272 lbs) 16.9 mpg
5.4ppg 4.0rpg 1.0apg 0.5spg 1.4bpg
46.7%fg 62.7%ft

Edge: Pops
While Hibbs could physically muscle Pops, he has a tendency to play smaller than he is. However, in recent weeks he's been playing with real fire. If Hibbs showed up with his mid-range jumper and hook shot, he would have a chance, but Pops just has more weapons and experience right now. Hibbs doesn't have enough for me to give him the edge as Pops definitely has the athleticism to beat out a seven footer--even if he's had a little bit of trouble in the past.

Benches
Mike Hall, Ricky Lucas, Maureece Rice, Alexander Kireev

Vs

Darrel Owens, Tyler Crawford, Ray Reed, Amadou Kilkenny-Diaw

Very Slight Edge: Hoyas There are too many large SF and SG coming off the bench for the Hoyas that all get into the passing lanes and up the tempo. Darrel Owens is probably the most talented player on the team, but seems to drift in and out of the game, often showing up to stick a dagger three in an opponent, spectacular dunk over a "superstar" or a statement block from behind on a fast-break.. Crawford and Reed (one or the other) always seems to come in an provide one game deciding play -- whether a steal and dunk, a block, a big assist or rebound. They always seem to show up in crunch time.

GW has Mike Hall whom I love and is a very vocal leader on the Colonials. He plays similarly to Omar and is a very difficult matchup as a point-forward. Also, they have a sharp shooter in Lucas and future A-10 superstar in Maureece, but I have to give a slight edge to the tenacious Defense that comes off the bench for the Hoyas.

Coaches
Karl Hobbs vs John Thompson III

Edge: JTIII
Giving him the nod because he just turned around a nightmare of a situation. We went from being picked to finish second to last in the Big East, to be currently 8-3 in the Big East with huge road wins and real shot at the Tourney. He is a front runner for Coach of the Year. He is incredible at adjusting his game plan and using substitutions to take advantage of matchups and just finds ways to win close games. You are watching a legend in the making.

So...having watched a lot of both teams, it seems to me that while the Colonials have an advantage at the guard spots and at the 5, Green and Bowman are more than enough to keep a game close. GW has a lot of athleticism and talent, but they struggle against teams who slow down the pace of the game and play aggressive mixtures of defenses. That would be us. We are pretty much the best defense in the Big East. We might not block as much as UConn, although we are amongst the leaders, but check out some of pomeroys stats such as defensive assist % and others. We do pretty well in getting a team to change its game plan.

Also the matchups would be incredibly interesting. TJ vs Wallace, Elliot vs Cook, Bowman vs JR...Green vs Omar.

It would be a very very close game...and while I'm going to take JTIII's record in close games on this one -- in a 68-65 nailbiter, I'm just excited that we could be discussing the possibility of GW and GU meeting up in the NCAAs. What a difference one year makes. Let's take care of business.

[HeartAttackHoya]

Cambridge,

That was a phenomenol breakdown. I would have to agree with each of the matchup advantages you posted. Only assumption you made is that Pops is back to starting by the tourney something he has not done the last 3 games..

[Cambridge]

True, but he was the best matchup situation for Hibbs...so I tried to break it down by who would be on the court at the same time more than likely. Mike Hall would be lumped into a mixture of Green and Bowman guarding him depending on the rest of the lineup GU had in.

[SFHoya99]

I think one of the biggest adjustments GW would have to make is to the pace of the game. Can GW win in a drag-em-out, half court game? The slower team will always dictate the pace unless the faster team can force a large amount of turnovers. We've had large amounts fo turnovers, but we still haven't let pace get away from us in a single game that I've seen.

I think their team is a lot different if they don't get those athletic, fast break points.

I also think, production wise, it is pretty hard to pick Elliott over Ashanti. If this were a one-on-one game, you might be right about the matchup, but I just can't see Elliott's size being as big an advantage as you say on defense. Ashanti's production is clearly comparable to TJ's, and Wallace's and Elliott's role and production are clearly similar. While GW has a backcourt edge, it isn't as big as you imply above.

Some stats from kenpom.com:

Rating
GU ranking: 52 - 58.03
GW ranking: 35 - 59.65

Pomeroy gives GW a 1.5 point edge, well within his margin of er-ror, and frankly GU has been trending up and GW down as the season has progressed. Still, Pomeroy does have GW higher.

Pace
GU: 61.0 possession per team per game
GW: 72.8 possession per team per game

This means a 14.5 ppg scorer on GW is more like a 12.2 ppg scorer on GU.

Offensive Efficiency
GU: 108.3 points per 100 possessions (51)
GW: 108.8 points per 100 possessions (46)

The offensive efficiencies are pretty similar. GW's a bit better.

Defensive Efficiency
GU: 94.6 points per 100 possessions (69)
GW: 93.4 points per 100 possessions (56)

GW is a bit better on defense (this is where most of that 1.5 points come from).

Keep in mind the efficiencies are adjusted for competition.

[FOTP]

Interesting point. I know I'm looking too far ahead, but the committee is notorious for purposely placing teams with different styles against each other or with some history/story line etc. for tv purposes.

I wouldn't be shocked if we got teamed with a high scoring running type team to enhance the strategic nature of the game. GW would fit that bill perfectly.

Also, don't be shocked to see them put us with GW or MD early in order to push the envelope.

[TBird41]

CambridgeHoya said:

Thinking about a possible meetup in the Tourney. I think it would be a great game:

TJ Thompson (5'10" 180 lbs) 30.3 mpg
14.1ppg 2.2rpg 3.4apg 1.5spg
43.8%fg 76.1%ft 43.0%tp

Vs

Jonathan Wallace (6'1" 178 lbs) 31.9 mpg
7.3ppg 2.1rpg 2.3apg 1.3spg
40.3%fg 78.8%ft 38.6%tp

Edge: Thompson
Although Wallace has an edge in size, Thompson's fire, hustle and deadly shot give him the edge in this one. Thompson, in so many ways, is GW. When he is on, the team is nearly impossible to beat, when he's off, it's a very long night. Weird matchup though as Thompson is really an undersized shooting guard while Wallace is a pure point with a nasty outside shot.

I think my point here would be that Wallace has done a solid job handling quality players--Chris Thomas comes to mind--and keeping them from getting in a groove, and I'd bet he could do the same with Thompson.

[aggypryd]

I'm glad someone else agrees with me about Darrell Owens...

The talent and athletic gifts are there...maybe he lacks the confidence...

He could cause so many problems for teams if he would look for his shot...

[HeartAttackHoya]

As a side note, I have no doubt that we are the best of the D.C. teams. Could we potentially have 4 or 5 DC met. teams make it (GW, GU. MAR, GMU, American, ODU?)

[Cambridge]

American has to get by a fiesty Holy Cross team...the Patriot League tourney is hosted by the league leader. There is a fair chance that American can get that nod and the advantage...but they may be able to beat HC anyways with the talented Ingram and that white three point shooter whose name escapes me....

[SFHoya99]

Does Old Dominion really count as DC area?

I'd love to have a Big 5 situation down in DC, but there's two issues.

One, GW and Maryland already have the BB&T. We aren't getting invited anytime soon, and they aren't leaving.

Two, Even if GW maintains its current level, going to five or six teams would make for permanent RPI killers. American isn't bad, but Howard, thanks to the conference, is just awful even if they are okay. If you kept it to four - GU, GW, UMD and GMU, it'd be better.

But it ain't happening anyway.

[Cambridge]

I think he was asking if it was possible that they all made the tourney...