Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 16, 2009 16:24:59 GMT -5
Do we have a thread on this yet? I don't think we do. If so, I can merge to that one. But if not, I'll get it started because it looks like I could have an interesting race in my very own District: berry2010.com/Arlington is a heavily, heavily Democratic district & Jim Moran has barely been challenged in recent elections. Even in 2002 and 2004, he was pretty safe. However, given the swing that Virginia has seen in 2009, and given Berry's small government, fiscal conservative, national security platform, he might be able to make it a race in Virginia-08. Oh, and one more thing. Matthew Berry is also openly gay. Like I said, could be an interesting race in Arlington. Of course, it's very early. There could be another Republican challenger who might beat Berry, but I'd say Republicans would be very wise to get behind a candidate like this. I could care less about his sexual orientation personally, but I don't deny that this could be a political advantage for him if he can win a Virginia Republican primary. With the exception that he might be one of a small number of Republicans to come out in favor of gay marriage (or maybe he won't, I don't know; it's not very specific on his Web site), that topic is really not very hot button in Virginia, and Berry is about as conservative as anyone could want on what are likely to be the major issues in this election. (Also, it's entirely possible that the meatheads in Clarendon might vote for him only because they mistake him for the ESPN fantasy sports guy). __________________________ In other news, Linda McMahon is beating Chris Dodd by a couple of points, and that's the GOOD news for Dodd. The actual likely Republican candidate is pummeling him....at least according to Quinnipiac.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Nov 16, 2009 16:54:15 GMT -5
Every two years, the Republicans run someone whose essential platform is "I'm not Jim Moran". Every year, they lose. Democrats have Arlington in a stranglehold.
The only chance to knock off Moran comes in the primary. There's usually a good candidate there who makes a game of it before Moran wins. If he gets weighted down by six scandals rather than the usual two, this may be the time he falls.
Not that I am bitter.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 16, 2009 18:58:10 GMT -5
You should throw in the expected B. Biden v. Castle race in Delaware too. That state hasn't seen a meaningful, competitive race since Carper defeated Bill Roth (of Roth IRA fame). I can't say I have much of an opinion either way not knowing much about either candidate* except that it will make for a highly entertaining race. I will also enjoy watching the right disdain family-based political legacies, to which they are obviously immune.
* If Beau is anything like his father, he'd make a distinguished public servant. ----------------- As to Linda Kennedy McMahon, I sincerely hope she gets the nomination, and she'd be a great addition to the People's Senate - located on the corner of Jabroni Drive and Smackdown Boulevard. Ric Flair is now in the business of making endorsements for elected office, and perhaps no event would be funnier than an endorsement rollout for Linda for Senate. Start the week off with Bob Backlund, followed by Roddy Piper, and close things off with "Natech."
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Nov 16, 2009 19:07:37 GMT -5
Is Biden definitely going to run?
Dumb question, I know, I guess we won't know that until he announces; I just thought I had heard a rumor that he might not want it.
Of course, they're polling pretty close after Castle started out with a lead (I think Biden has overtaken him by a bit), so that'd be a pretty big incentive to run.
Can't remember where I heard the rumor, so I can't link to it, but I'll try to look around.
And exorcist is probably right, it's probably just a pipe dream that a conservative, even a gay conservative, can beat Moran in Arlington. But I can always hope.
FWIW, my dislike of Jim Moran goes well beyond partisanship. He is one of few elected officials I have been able to meet and even talk to on a few occasions, and I just think he is a jerk, moron, and also pretty lecherous (though that's harmless, I'm sure; I don't think he's ever had any scandal, just I know ladies I've seen around him get totally creeped out by him.)
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Nov 16, 2009 19:33:05 GMT -5
You should throw in the expected B. Biden v. Castle race in Delaware too. That state hasn't seen a meaningful, competitive race since Carper defeated Bill Roth (of Roth IRA fame). I can't say I have much of an opinion either way not knowing much about either candidate* except that it will make for a highly entertaining race. I will also enjoy watching the right disdain family-based political legacies, to which they are obviously immune. * If Beau is anything like his father, he'd make a distinguished public servant. ----------------- As to Linda Kennedy McMahon, I sincerely hope she gets the nomination, and she'd be a great addition to the People's Senate - located on the corner of Jabroni Drive and Smackdown Boulevard. Ric Flair is now in the business of making endorsements for elected office, and perhaps no event would be funnier than an endorsement rollout for Linda for Senate. Start the week off with Bob Backlund, followed by Roddy Piper, and close things off with "Natech." Maybe Biden can plagiarize some his dad's old speeches.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 8, 2010 17:42:15 GMT -5
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 9, 2010 19:27:41 GMT -5
I'll say this - judging by the number of Scott Brown signs I have seen in the past two weeks, I believe everything the polls say about Republicans being much more interested in the race. I haven't seen one Coakley sign, but I can't drive almost anywhere without seeing multiple Scott Brown signs.
That said, if anyone was willing to put money on Scott Brown I would be taking that action in a second. The worst possible thing for him is these polls that are saying the race is tightening.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 12, 2010 16:02:18 GMT -5
That said, if anyone was willing to put money on Scott Brown I would be taking that action in a second. The worst possible thing for him is these polls that are saying the race is tightening. You know, I've been thinking that this was a long shot the whole way, but after Coakley's Palin/Biden-esque assertion that there are no terrorists in Afghanistan, after her adventures in spelling, and after today's desperation tactics, I'm beginning to thing an upset could be in the works. (yeah, I fool myself a lot). I'll leave money out of it, but if you want a different sort of gentlemen's wager, I'll take you up on it. Say loser has to display signature of winner's choice for two weeks (within the boundaries of good taste).
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TC
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Post by TC on Jan 12, 2010 16:27:33 GMT -5
Done and done - you're on. I hope you are ready to inform everyone of, among other things, your undying love of Nickelback and Creed.
That said, the campaign ads are in full swing - I've been seeing anti-Coakley ads, pro-Brown ads, pro-Coakley ads, and I saw the new anti-Brown ad online but have yet to see it on the TV. I've never seen so many political ads as I did during the Ravens-Pats game - every ad was either Coakley or Brown. I gotta be honest - none of the ads are very good at all, the only thing I've come away with from any of the ads are that Scott Brown drives a truck and talks about his truck a lot and Martha Coakley has an accent and talks about accountability a lot.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 12, 2010 16:34:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I should've asked for odds. Alright, it's a bet.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 12, 2010 16:37:21 GMT -5
No matter who wins this election, the real winner is Hoyatalk.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Jan 12, 2010 20:48:37 GMT -5
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 13, 2010 1:21:17 GMT -5
It's been in the works for a while, but it's now official: full legalization of marijuana in California will be put to a vote: www.nbcbayarea.com/news/politics/Planting-the-Seed-for-Legal-Pot-81222877.htmlIn my neck of the woods, expect the Texas governor's race to get interesting. Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison have their first debate tomorrow night, for you C-SPAN junkies. They'll beat each other to a bloody pulp by February, giving the very popular mayor of Houston, Bill White, a very real shot of becoming Texas' first Democratic governor since Ann Richards.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Jan 13, 2010 1:31:15 GMT -5
The first two are canards. Yes, the economy could revive. Anybody want to take a bet on that one? The second one is worse - many people don't identify as a member of a party, but consider themselves "independent". Even in 1994, most people didn't identify as Republicans. The rest are not three points - they're one point, that the Republicans lack a specific plan. I'd kind of wait for the primaries to shake themselves out before attacking the Republicans on this - the Democrats don't have this problem, because their direction comes from the White House (a snarky response would be that they have a worse problem because of this).
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Post by hoyawatcher on Jan 13, 2010 9:14:45 GMT -5
For someone who hasn't paid any attention - what is the short version of why Hutchinson is taking on Perry for the Governor of TX? On the surface it doesn't seem to make any sense.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Jan 13, 2010 10:48:32 GMT -5
For someone who hasn't paid any attention - what is the short version of why Hutchinson is taking on Perry for the Governor of TX? On the surface it doesn't seem to make any sense. My understanding is that it's simple vanity/ambition: both want to be governor for the next four years because being governor of Texas rocks. Complicating the matter is that KBH's people claim that Rick Perry promised not to run for re-election in 2010 in order to keep Kay out in 2006, and has subsequently reneged on that promise, which his supporters obviously claim he never made. The interesting aspects to the race are 1) allegedly Texas is a net donor to conservative/GOP races nationwide, and this year their money will stay home and even bleed resources from other states for the first time in decades, and 2) absent a particularly vicious primary, the winner would be heavily favored against whatever Texas Dem is put forth. I'll defer to real Texans on the details.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Jan 13, 2010 13:03:55 GMT -5
I gotta be honest - none of the ads are very good at all, the only thing I've come away with from any of the ads are that Scott Brown drives a truck and talks about his truck a lot and Martha Coakley has an accent and talks about accountability a lot. Unfortunately, this has not been mentioned in advertisements: Law student Scott Brown in Cosmo (NSFW)
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 13, 2010 14:10:09 GMT -5
I'm curious as to what those who are rooting / voting against Scott Brown think of the possibility that the state election folks will delay certifying his election as long as legally possible (or until after Healthcare passes) if he wins?
Is it as outrageous as I think? Is it outrageous, but all's fair in war and politics and health care is worth it? Is it not a big deal?
I know it's probably moot (then again, those Cosmo pics might get him some extra Soccer Mom votes ;D), but I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 13, 2010 14:12:41 GMT -5
One other possibility - the House could simply vote on the Senate version of the bill even if Brown is certified as the winner. I am not sure why the House Dems are so hung up on this.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 13, 2010 14:16:38 GMT -5
One other possibility - the House could simply vote on the Senate version of the bill even if Brown is certified as the winner. I am not sure why the House Dems are so hung up on this. They don't have the votes b/c the Stupak and company already rejected the abortion language in the Senate bill as not being strong enough when they were doing the House bill. And, obviously there are a lot of possible outcomes that don't lead to this certification tactic being used, but, say Brown wins by enough that under normal circumstances, he'd be certified and assume the seat, but the certification is delayed specifically so he won't be able to vote on the Health care bill. Ok? Not ok? Justifiable?
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