Big East Prediction Time!!!

[paul01]

My prediction for the season: GU finishes tied for third in the conference. Worst case - we finish tied for fourth (w/us winning the tie break)

I've done a back-of-the-envelope review of the top 7 teams' remaining schedules and have come up with the a most likely scenario for the final Big East Standings:

1. BC (13-3)
2. Syracuse (13-3)
3. UCONN (11-5)
4. GU (11-5)
5. Pitt (10-6)
6. Notre Dame (9-7)
7. Villanova (9-7)

Here's my thinking on each team's upcoming schedule. Pitt looks to have toughest schedule. These are high level guestimates, but they also reflect what I believe is most likely to happen. I welcome your thoughts and feedback.

GU (8-3)
Opponents: @ Notre Dame, @ st john's, villanova, @ UCONN, Providence

Most likely scenario (MLS): win 3 of 5... finish 11-5
Next most likely scenario (NMLS): win 2 of 5... finish 10-6
Best Case scenario (BCS): win 4 of 5... finish 12-4

Villanova (5-5)
Opponents: @ Seton Hall, Pitt, BC, @ GU, Seton Hall, @ st johns

MLS: win 4 of 6... finish 9-7
NMLS: win 3 of 6... finish 8-8

Notre Dame (6-5)
Opponents: GU, @ Providence, @ Uconn, Rutgers, Pitt

MLS: win 3 of 5 (9-7)
NMLS: win 2 of 5 (8-8)
BCS: win 4 of 5 (10-6)

UCONN (7-3)
Opponents: @ Providence, @ Rutgers, Notre Dame, @ Pitt, GU, Syracuse

MLS: win 4 of 6 (11-5)
NMLS: win 3 0f 6 (10-6)
BCS: win 5 of 6 (12-4)

PITT (7-3)
Opponents: @ syracuse, @ villanova, west virginia, UCONN, @ BC, @ ND

MLS: win 3 of 6... finish 10-6
NMLS: win 2 of 6... finish 9-7
BCS: win 4 of 6... finish 11-5

Syracuse (9-2)
Opponents: Pitt, @ BC, St Johns, Providence, @ UCONN

MLS: win 4 of 5... finish 13-3
NMLS: win 3 of 6... finish 12-4

BC (9-1)
Opponents: Rutgers, Syracuse, @ Villanova, Seton Hall, Pitt, @ Rutgers

MLS: win 4 of 6... finish 13-3
NMLS: win 5 of 6... finish 14-2

[jerseyhoya34]

Great work there and welcome to the board. Great to see long time lurkers and "newbies" signing up and contributing to this board in increasing numbers.

I agree 100% with your detailed assessment based on my independent eyeballing of the standings at this point. I'd love to get that 3 seed because the 4-5 match-up is going to be lethal in the tourney.

[][-][ 0 `/ /-\ 5]

My thoughts:
Good analysis. But, I have major doubts that bc will finish as well as you think they will. BC still does not impress me. I am still stunned that they went 20-0. Don't interpret this as bad feelings about our loss or jealousy but I think now that their streak is over they are going to start going downhill fast. Anyways, great analysis and welcome to the boards. (I would never be able to do something like this. So much effort...)

[paul01]

Thanks - happy to join the board.

BC has one of the easier remaining schedules among the top 7 with three "should win" games in rutgers (twice) and seton hall. they also host pitt and syracuse in a raucous conte forum.

BC is definitely overrated and they play the easiest big east schedule this year (somehow they play the other top 6 schools just once). That said, bc's weak schedule will help them post w's down the stretch while the other top programs beat on one another.

BTW.. GU can now be considered a de facto lock for the tourney. at this point we'd have to play our way out of a bid with some very bad losses. on the flip side, a couple nice wins (hello notre dame) could set us up for a 5 seed.

Green for BE ROY. Thompson for NCAA COY.

[TBird41]

I think paul has it right about BC's final record and the fact that it's as much a product of their schedule as it is of their ability. That being said, BC will not play in the finals of the BE tournament. I doubt they'll lose to the 8/9 seed, but I don't see them beating the 4th or 5th seed.

[GUHoya07]

a raucous conte forum?

I dont know, maybe DanMcQ could give his feelings but I've never really thought of raucous and Conte Forum in the same sentence.

[jerseyhoya34]

The silence is deafening...

[][-][ 0 `/ /-\ 5]

My mistake- BC will likely win 4. But the next most likely scenario is them winning 3 of 6, not 5 of 6. I can easily see them dropping the game at the RAC, and any 2 of the 3 game stretch including Cuse, @nova, and pitt.

[jerseyhoya34]

RU's season is officially over as far as I'm concerned. Methinks that team has quit.

[][-][ 0 `/ /-\ 5]

You don't think that they wouldn't want to gain a little bit of dignity and respect from their school by trashing the "best" team in the BE at home in their last game? I wouldn't be surprised if they went out and half-killed the BC players just to make people stop laughing at them for losing to providence

[lichoya68]

good analysis but i think that 10 and six will be our best we cn do.. when you look at the games left everyones gonna beat up on each other all tough hope at least we dont play wed thats a must then who the heck knows... rasheed anderson with a leg infection in the hospital my assumption alto have no real idea is thats resistant staff infection treated by antibiotics iv for at least a month so he may be gone but thats speculation.. go hoyas beat nd and maybe go cuse beatpitt i think that tommarow right that would help keep people below us go hoyas beat nd

[DanMcQ]

GUHoya2007 said:

a raucous conte forum?

I dont know, maybe DanMcQ could give his feelings but I've never really thought of raucous and Conte Forum in the same sentence.

Conte Mausoleum is only 'raucous' near the end of the season if BC is near the top of the league standings. Even so, Conte and raucous used in the same sentence is a non sequitur, since the whole place goes silent during TV timeouts, as if it doesn't count since the cameras aren't on.

[TrueHoyaBlue]

As to Big East Standings, at this point in the season, the Hoyas have mathematically clinched 9th place (SJU, Rutgers and Providence already have nine losses).

One more win will clinch seventh place (due to us winning tiebreakers w/ WVU and/or Seton Hall, who both have 7 losses).


I don't have time to do the rest of the math right now, but there are seven matchups left that will produce 7 losses for the other six top teams in the conference, which essentially means 2 more wins and we get the first-round bye. But at this point, I just say -- Keep rolling, Hoyas!

[Fan Of The Game]

|-| said:

You don't think that they wouldn't want to gain a little bit of dignity and respect from their school by trashing the "best" team in the BE at home in their last game? I wouldn't be surprised if they went out and half-killed the BC players just to make people stop laughing at them for losing to providence

I think they'd want to, I just don't think they can. Rutgers stinks. BC may have their holes but you have to give some respect to the fact that they've gone 9-1 so far in the best conference in the country. There is no way they'll lose to Rutgers, either at home or at the RAC.

[HOYAPLAYA]

Fan said:

I think they'd want to, I just don't think they can. Rutgers stinks. BC may have their holes but you have to give some respect to the fact that they've gone 9-1 so far in the best conference in the country. There is no way they'll lose to Rutgers, either at home or at the RAC.

I have to agree with FOTG on this one. I think Rutgers is on their way to the same type of ending to the season that we saw last year. I don't really care what BC does at this point. I just want my Hoyas to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.

[1803]

It is good to map all this out because it shows that teams we are fighting with are going to be playing each other, which helps us one way or the other.

I didn't go through every scenario, but I am interested in your take on Nova. You say it is most likely that they go 4 -2 down the stretch. That stretch includes home dates with Pitt and BC, and a roadie with the Hoyas. I don't see how it is likely that they win any of those games. Villanova is a decent team that blew out Kansas. They are 5 - 5 in conference, coming off a spanking by the Cuse. The Feb 27th date with the Hoyas is going to be huge. We should have great attendance, and hopefully we will get a big win for our tourney, and conference resume.

[Cambridge]

Here are my picks for the rest of the season.

Projected Seeds for BET:

1. Syracuse 9-2 (22-3) RPI #14 SOS #92
Will win: @bc, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Providence
Will lose: @uconn
Final Predicted Record: 13-3 (26-4)*

2. Boston College 9-1 (20-1) RPI #6 SOS #75
Will win: Rutgers, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, @rutgers
Will lose: Syracuse, @villanova
Final Predicted Record: 13-3 (24-3)*

3. Georgetown 8-3 (16-6) RPI #35 SOS #56
Will win: @st. John's, Nova, @uconn, Providence
Will lose: @notre Dame,
Final Predicted Record: 12-4 (20-7)

4. UConn 7-3 (15-6) RPI #24 SOS #21
Will win: @rutgers, Notre Dame, , Syracuse
Will lose: @providence, @pittsburgh, Georgetown
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (19-8)**

5. Notre Dame 6-5 (14-7) RPI #44 SOS #48
Will win: Georgetown, @providence, UCLA, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
Will lose: @uconn
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (19-8)**

6. Villanova 5-5 (14-6) RPI #18 SOS #14
Will win: Bucknell, Pittsburgh, BC, Seton Hall, @st. John's
Will lose: Seton Hall, georgetown
Final Predicted Record: 9-7 (20-7)***

7. Pittsburgh 7-3 (17-4) RPI #52 SOS #168
Will win: West Virginia, UConn,
Will lose: @bc, @syracuse, @villanova, @notre Dame
Final Predicted Record: 9-7 (19-8)***

8. Seton Hall 3-7 (11-10) RPI #120 SOS #49
Will win: Villanova, Providence, West Virginia
Will lose: @west Virginia, @bc, @villanova
Final Predicted Record: 6-10 (14-12)****

9. West Virginia 4-7 (14-8) RPI #72 SOS #65
Will win: Seton Hall, Rutgers
Will lose: @st. John's, @pittsburgh, @seton Hall
Final Predicted Record: 6-10 (16-11)****

10. Providence 1-9 (10-13) RPI #80 SOS #1
Will win: UConn, St. John's
Will lose: Notre Dame, @seton Hall, @syracuse, georgetown
Final Predicted Record: 3-13 (12-17)

11. Rutgers 2-9 (8-13) RPI #163 SOS #30
Will win:
Will lose: @bc, UConn, @west Virginia, @notre Dame, BC
Final Predicted Record: 2-14 (8-18)

St. John's 2-9 (8-13) RPI #178 SOS #28
Will win: West Virginia, Duke
Will lose: Georgetown, @syracuse, @providence, Villanova
Final Predicted Record: 3-13 (10-17)*****

*Cuse gets tie breaker on head-to-head
**UConn gets tie breaker on head-to-head
*** Nova gets tie breaker on head-to-head
***SH wins tie-breaker due to a better record against Villanova than WV's
****St. John's is ineligible for the Big East Tournament

Tie breaking proceedure:
www.bigeast.org/sports/mbball/releases/02-03-04.asp

[Fan Of The Game]

CambridgeHoya said:

Here are my picks for the rest of the season.

Projected Seeds for BET:

3. Georgetown 8-3 (16-6) RPI #35 SOS #56
Will win: @st. John's, Nova, @uconn, Providence
Will lose: @notre Dame,
Final Predicted Record: 12-4 (19-8)

If the Hoyas do go 4-1 down the stretch (and I'd love to see it) we'd end up 20-7, not 19-8.

It's going to be very interesting to see if Pittsburgh can help their cause by winning a tough road game or two down the stretch...what a brutal schedule they have. If they do go 2 and 4 as suggested then they're going to need some BET help to get a bid.

[Cambridge]

Good call on GU's final record. It's corrected...

Earlier I predicted Gtown would only go 3-2 with a loss @uconn, but now I'm way more confident. I think this team is very hungry and feels like the UConn game got snatched out of their hands a little too early and their incredible second half was just not quite enough...they want revenge.

Quite frankly UConn is a paper tiger if I've ever seen one. I mean, living in Boston, I've watched quite a few Husky games and while they have won just about every game they should have...they just never impress. They always seem to leave the door open and let teams back into games. That will bite them in the ass before the season is over.

BC plays it's hardest stretch in the BE, which is not saying much, but they will tally more losses in the next two weeks than they have all season. Look for Nova to add another signature win when BC comes to town.

I think the BE gets seven teams. Here's the deal, I figure there will be four teams with 20 wins and three with 19 wins entering BET weekend. All of those teams with have RPIs in the top #35.

[bmack]

They board acused me of drinking on New Year's Eve when I predicted "Hoyas" to go 21-6......Anyhow I have not smoked anything either and I'm saying a #1 maybe #2 seed in the Big East Tourney.......Check out BC's schedule down the road....The cuse just got beat by Pitt!!!!!!!!