Thoughts on Roster Construction and Today's Commit

[SFHoya99]

Just some thoughts:

• People are going to view today's commits very much in light of how they view last year's meltdown and college basketball in general.
  
  If they are a "talent trumps everything" person, or believe our talent is not that good, I can see where this news was disappointing (if you believe in recruit rankings).
  
  If you think last year's breakdown was at least partially a result of bad chemistry or people not playing their roles, today could have been anywhere from a "fine" to a "good".
  
  
• For next year, a ballhandling guard was necessary.
  
  
• The immediate need for Jerelle is less obvious, which actually gives me hope that the staff really liked what they saw. Some people have mentioned "desperation." There's no need here with Greg coming back, so I don't think its desperation.
  
  
• Love that they are both considered quality shooters and ballhandlers. That said, those are the two skills that least consistently translate to the next level.
  
  
• They may not be ranked, but not playing AAU makes me feel better about that. Keep in mind that when he committed, we might have been Jeff Green's only major conference offer. Only local schools were on him as I remember, and Maryland had Gist and was waiting on Gay. Green skipped the AAU circuit and no one outside of DC was on him until summer, when Syracuse tried to weasel in post-LOI. Even then, the recruiting services ignored him.
  
  I'm not saying these guys are Jeff Green caliber or even Jon Wallace caliber.
  
  I'm saying there is a big difference between the Recruiting Services evauated a guy and found him lacking and the recruiting services never evaluated a guy.
  
  
• We're not UNC. We're not going to be able to recruit 10 McDs AA. These guys want to play, and the ones that are willing to compete at that level for playing time go to a place like UNC over everyone else.
  
  
• Once you get past that, you need to have role players. Of course, aiming for role players is hard. Get a player that is too good, and they may transfer out. Get a player who isn't good enough and they are nice for practice but not to step in as an upperclassman or provide playing depth. Get a player who thinks they are great when they aren't...and they transfer.
  
  
• You can see the approach here, whether or not it works. Vee's coach couldn't have been more clear that III and burke clearly articulated a likely role and Vee is willing to accept it. Now will he feel that way after to years? Will he fulfill that? Will he be better and drive off a higher recruited guy? All that can happen, but you can see the attempt by the staff to do something different.
  
  
• Is this any guarantee that every less-recruited player stays four years? Of course not. Any competitor wants to play, and we have three of these players in two eligibility years (Nikita, Jerelle, Vee). But they certainly come in understanding that they will have to earn minutes, and more importantly, that the team is not a showcase for them.
  
  
• Personally, I like an eight man rotation max. Three bigs, three guards, two swings. Unless you're trying to run guys off the floor, running out your ninth and tenth guys are minutes you should have better players playing more. They'd play but not in the regular rotation.
  
  
• I don't think these guys are complete practice players. I think they will play, and moreso throughout their career. But even so, having three lesser recruited guys is hardly a strain on a 13-player team.
  
  
• Take out a scholarship as empty (or two) due to going pro or transfers, and you still have at least 11 scholarship players. Having three lesser recruited guys is not too many.
  
  
• This puts us at 10 scholarship players. How many do you think get regular run next year?
  
  
• We have two more scholarships through 2010 including Greg's. That's before transfers, which have an air of inevtiability these days. Still, for those looking for highly ranked commits, I expect both those to be filled by top recruits.
  
  
• We are in with some great 2010 wings (Smith, Kendrick, etc) and I expect we want another big. Maybe that's Latavious.
  
  

[richfame]

Great Post. Question, can we sign 2 guys tomorrow for the 2010 class even though we only techinically have one ship available now. Or can we only sign one that we have and have to hold off till one offically opens up?? Sorry if this was confusing...

[SFHoya99]

We can technically have as many verbal commits as we want. We could also sign a whole slew of guys for 2010 -- there's nothing saying your commits can't be over the limit.

That said, a lot of people are against the practice. I haven't seen GU do it, and definitely not under Esherick or Thompson. There's something sketchy to it -- if you are over, are you rescinding an offer? Forcing a transfer. I think the only way Thompson would do it is if Greg said he was gone no matter what.

I think what we have here is a case of the odds.

What are the chances Latavious qualifies and commits?

What are the chances of getting Roscoe or Kendrick or Odom or Jones, etc?

What are the chances that if we get one, we get another to commit despite having Hollis and one already in the bank?

Right now, this is how I view it. We're looking at two top line recruits for 2009/10. LW could be one; if not, we're going for two in 2010. I guess the big question is what positions are those?

Wing is one. Looking at needs, a big is another. But there's a ton of good 2011 bigs we're on, and there seems to not be any 2009/10 bigs we're on (aside from Nate).

Factor in Latavious probably wanting to develop some outside play for the next level, and LW, Hollis, say Roscoe and Kendrick is awful crowded, even if one of them takes SG at some point.

If we get Latavious, I don't think we really need two wings in 2010, unless you are looking for them to fight it out and have one transfer. (Which no one seems to like).

[tonyparker]

I'd like to add real quickly after reading all these threads - none of these top 2010 recruits people think we should be signing instead of Vee and Jerelle are guaranteed.

By most reports, Roscoe would prefer UNC. Will Barton isn't really looking at us. Jelan Kendrick is still looking around and is being recruited by some of the "hot" teams.

Let's face it - when we first got mentioned by a lot of the Top 2009 and 2010 names - we were the Kings of the Big East. Things have changed and changed fast. Our system is getting trashed on ESPN, on Rivals, and on the AAU Circuit.

Let JTIII bring in the boys who want to play in his system and get us back to the top. When that happens, it will once again be realistic to compete for the top recruits in the country.

Right now, I just don't think that is the case, and perhaps JTIII realizes that to some extent. He's proven that he doesn't need a roster full of five stars to be successful.

That said, let's not kid ourselves. I also don't think he'd mind it if John Wall and Xavier Henry were coming instead of Vee and Jerelle. Maybe in 2011. And I fully expect by 2011 we'll be back on top.

[jerseyhoya34]

At the risk of distracting from SF's thoughts above but perhaps to the benefit of cutting down on thread proliferation, here are mine on recent events/state of the program (offered by someone who missed most of the BE season). I don't have any Washington Post cites on this, but bear with me.

1. I think aggressive attacks on JT3 are to the disservice of the program, with some qualification. He has earned - important word - our respect/admiration having turned around a program that was described by respected and missed analysts as irrelevant as of fall 2003/spring 2004. To have made the Final Four in 2007 is the basketball equivalent of a miracle, also due in large part to the excellent scholar-athletes who entered the program with JT3. We could not have asked more out of that staff/group of players, even if it ended with last year's disappointment against Davidson. As I look at the program from 40,000 feet, I see Davidson as a bookend in our basketball history. We are now living with the fact that we did hire a younger coach who frankly is not the name substantively yet that a Boeheim (yuck), Calhoun (yuck), or Pitino (yuck) is.

2. What I see right now is not so much a basketball problem as a recruiting problem. We have been short on scholarship players, which mean we were more vulnerable if someone is behind where we thought they were, if someone does not develop as expected, etc. It leaves you vulnerable if you can't sit someone down if they have a small but annoying injury. It leaves you vulnerable if you can't flat out bench someone. To that extent, we gained a lot today from these two commits not only because they hedge our bets, but, on a lighter note, that we have enough scholarship players to run layup lines let alone pick-up.

3. I see these commits also as a reaction to the "if we offer X, we won't be able to pursue Y one year later" approach that we have seen from the staff. We held out for certain guys in the past and have ended up skunked. Some of the 2009 committed to Duke come to mind. In that sense, we might be better off taking "first to commit" on some spots and take our chances from thereif we think a guy can play.

4. I would be lying if I didn't think our starting 5 next season could hold its own against any other team if things fall into place. Wright, Freeman/Clark, Clark/Thompson, Sims, and Monroe have a great deal of ability, but perhaps it should be said that nobody here will turn into a "Jeff Green" overnight. You don't do it by creating personnel conflicts, and you don't do it by relying on whatever you have in terms of skill right now. You don't get it by half-timing Kenner League, strange as that sounds. All need to be in the gym this summer and recommitted to the program.

5. As fans, I think we need to be patient. Last year, this team was young in terms of where the talent is/was. I always saw it as a Wright/Monroe team in terms of where you want the basketball to evolve/focus of offense. Summers never was that "Jeff Green role" guy, particularly when he could not dribble or pass. He turned out to be more of a middle class man's Bowman.

6. The "schollie count" will work out. It always does.

7. Less basketball related, but I hope there is a discussion this off-season of where Hoyas Unlimited is in relation to where it could/should be. I think there has been much growth there in JT3's first few years, so I have generally been pleased more so than in the past. But, we also have to ask whether status quo is preferable.

8. Facilities is another issue where there simply has not been credible movement, save for on acronym group websites on Georgetown.edu. This ties in to #7 and the issue of whether he can afford to be and want to be a status quo program, particularly when the status quo dates back to Truman.

Anyway, my $.02. Maybe more at another time...

[HoyasAreHungry]

great post SF....and Ambassador I posted this in the Bennimon thread but I agree...the scholarship table will work out...it always does. We will be fine. Noone here knows what JTIII knows or is thinking about the situation and noone here can predict the situation next year. Who here has been able to predict the transfers? Look of course I want the best talent we can get....so does JTIII im sure. Bottom line the hand wringing is over the top on this

[SFHoya99]

Great post, Jersey (I still can't take to the name change).

1. Totally agree.

2. I agree here, in that our recruiting issues are quantity, not quality. (Perhaps fit with each other). What III has to figure out is how other coaches get players to stay and develop rather than leave after two years. Perhaps it is the wrong players or perhaps it is something else. But we simply need to retain more players.

3. I think so, somewhat. Keep in mind we tried this a bit with Omar and Nikita, to mixed results. We got practice time, but right now not a whole lotta minutes. I don't know if these guys are better.

4. Agree.

5. Youth, youth, youth. My other big concern, though, is chemistry. Players have to play together and they have to be coachable. Does that come with experience? Was it really just a player or two? Or was that not really an issue?

6. Yep.

[jerseyhoya34]

Apr 21, 2009 21:15:00 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Great post, Jersey (I still can't take to the name change).

1. Totally agree.

2. I agree here, in that our recruiting issues are quantity, not quality. (Perhaps fit with each other). What III has to figure out is how other coaches get players to stay and develop rather than leave after two years. Perhaps it is the wrong players or perhaps it is something else. But we simply need to retain more players.

3. I think so, somewhat. Keep in mind we tried this a bit with Omar and Nikita, to mixed results. We got practice time, but right now not a whole lotta minutes. I don't know if these guys are better.

4. Agree.

5. Youth, youth, youth. My other big concern, though, is chemistry. Players have to play together and they have to be coachable. Does that come with experience? Was it really just a player or two? Or was that not really an issue?

6. Yep.

As to the retention issue in #2, my take on it would be that perhaps the "Georgetown brand" grew too quickly in recruiting circles. Georgetown is not a basketball panacea, and JT3 can't solve everyone's basketball problems for them. But, I feel as though some of these guys came in and thought they would be the next so and so and did not put in the work. Then, they got disappointed when they did not turn into so and so but rather the competitive equivalent of an SFS'er debating between Manilow and Peal Jam in the halftime Deal or No Deal. I won't single guys out who have left over the last two years but will perhaps describe their basketball thinking as creative. Perhaps we would benefit from a tamping down of expectations.

[SFHoya99]

One more point, because I didn't really emphasize it right.

Without V, we have three guards on the roster. Three. Neither Austin's nor Jason's handle were up to PG duties last year. Even if one improves to that level, what if someone gets hurt?

It's not like we have three guards in the rotation, or a lesser recruited player, or a walk on. Our backup plan in case of injury would be to slide Hollis over to the 2. So maybe he could handle it. Or maybe not. And if we did that, then we're playing Nikita at the 3 quite a bit with not a lot of depth there.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

we do have walk on guard ryan Doughrety ready to go next year after sitting out this year after transfering from rochester.

[RBHoya]

Apr 21, 2009 21:45:52 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

One more point, because I didn't really emphasize it right.

Without V, we have three guards on the roster. Three. Neither Austin's nor Jason's handle were up to PG duties last year. Even if one improves to that level, what if someone gets hurt?

It's not like we have three guards in the rotation, or a lesser recruited player, or a walk on. Our backup plan in case of injury would be to slide Hollis over to the 2. So maybe he could handle it. Or maybe not. And if we did that, then we're playing Nikita at the 3 quite a bit with not a lot of depth there.

I don't think anybody would disagree with those points. To do so would be to suggest that it's a good idea to go into the season with 8, or maybe to say it's LW or bust. Neither of those makes good sense when you've got lots of available scholarships. I was glad to see them take a combo and the more I read/see the more I like Vee.

I'm a little more concerned about taking Benimon the next day. Vee made sense because we could use a guard and had the scholarships, so take a shot and at worst he is an emergency option next year. Benimon is a little tougher for me because he seems to project as a small forward, more of a swingman than a combo forward. Considering that we've got Nikita, Hollis and most likely another wing forward coming in 2010, I don't see a reserve small forward as being an area of need.

But having never seen JB, all I can really do is postpone judgment. Maybe he will be able to play the 4 and maybe he has a nose for the ball. If that ends up being the case it's a good pickup.

But at this point we don't really have any more scholarships left for projects. I think we have bigger priorities now, namely one of the top wing prospects in 2010 and a 4 or 5 man who can rebound, either LW in 2009 or someone else in 2010 when Greg is gone.

As of right now I feel somewhat confident that our first 8, with Vee possibly as #9, has enough going to get back to the NCAAs next year, LW or not. If we can add a rebounder and a top wing and only lose Greg for the following year, I think we're more or less back on track and hopefully we can strike it rich in 2011 recruiting, when there are lots of good frontcourt players.

[harwoodhoya]

I support JT3 and his staff if they feel these are the guys they want. There is alot of players not ranked that are lighting it up in college basketball. I just hope he remembers he needs to recruit studs as well and that he is in the Big East and not the Ivy league.

[the_way]

i just want players that play hard, have ability, go to class, and have some intangibles. i don't care if they are 4-star or 1-stars. just some good players that want to be good and want to compete when wearing the Hoya uniform.

i think we have lost that mindset as a program, and we need to get back to that. And it starts with recruiting.

We don't know how these recruits will turn out. They could be our 2 best players on next year's team for all we know. Just take the wait and see approach.

[oldirtyku]

Not sure why we can't be close to UNC and recruit like other top programs in the country. We used to be able to get anyone we wanted.

Sorry HM. Boss walked in while I was posting...

[hoopsmccan]

odk - could you put that post into English, thanks.

hm

[dense]

To take a stab(@odk's commment)....the way we play doesn't lend itself like UNC to have 10 McdAA...UNC plays 10 guys and runs constantly...there really isnt any real precision in their offense...its basically an organized fast break ala what the celts did in the 60's and 70's. Plus the play full court man, you will see time....i think we are best running 8 guys out......like the final four yr......where really we only played 7.

[hoyaboy1]

I don't think anyone really has a problem signing Vee - he seems talented and fills a need.

Benimon is a lot trickier. I don't think the comparisons to Green are instructive, as local people were extremely high on Jeff and he was very well known - even around here nobody knows squat about Benimon. Yea, maybe he becomes the rugged rebounding 4 that we need. But it sounds more likely to me that he ends up being an undersized, unskilled tweener who rarely sees the court. That can be fine if we have solid depth on the rest of the team (Crawford) but bad if he ends up being forced to play due to transfers/injuries/early entries (Nikita, Omar).

I'm obviously hoping for the best, and I'm excited to see him in Kenner. Far from sold on this, though.

[guru]

People need to chill out about the Benimon signing. I think he'll be a good player for us from what I've heard from people in Virginia - but for right now, he's simply the replacement for Omar. A practice player, and not much more as long as things go as planned over the next couple years. That's what Omar was too - until last year's exodus left us so thin (read: things did NOT go as planned) that he was forced into a bigger role and suddenly thought he deserved it.

[Omega]

What r u guys talking about with all of this circular reasoning. The bottom line is that 3’s recruiting philosophy has been flawed. Multi-dimensional players are good, but in order to be successful a team needs specialists. 3 recruited too many players that shoot, pass, rebound, and play defense alright but not great. 3 needs to borrow more from pops and less from Pete C.

GU is never going to recruit like UNC, Kansas, or Kentucky. As such, a different recruiting strategy needs to be used. 3 needs to recruit the one or two top national players and surround them with guys that are hungry. He needs a rebounder! Who cares if the guy can’t shoot. Without possessions, no matter how great a shooter you are, you can’t shoot. 3 needs to recruit a defensive specialists, a superior ball handler.

Everyone likes to reminisce about that final 4 team. If you look at that team u will see that it had balance: shooters, rebounders, defensive specialists, energy, etc., The JB signing is exactly what the Hoyas need, a guy that is hungry!

[lichoya68]

good points especially sfhoya and by the way i kinda like and trust and respect coach ALOT go hoyas