Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Post by Bando on Mar 11, 2009 23:14:05 GMT -5
With the season all but over, might as well keep the B&G board humming along... As an Irish-American, I'm very sad to see killings once again unfolding in Northern Ireland. ( WaPo Link) Why I'm worried: - with a bad economy, the possibility of disaffected young men looking for a cause is even greater than before.
- in the past, the IRA could just quietly slip the names of dissidents to the British, or just kill them themselves. Now, I'm not sure Gerry Addams even knows who these people are.
- if Republican violence keeps up, it's more than likely that dissident Unionists will begin violent reprisals.
Why I'm hopeful: - The overwhelming majority of the Catholic and Protestant peoples and political establishment are very much opposed to any resumption of violence.
- These new dissidents probably view the old Sinn Fein/IRA hands as traitors to the cause. As such, people like Gerry Addams have no reason to help them at all, making them fairly marginal.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Post by The Stig on Mar 12, 2009 15:15:39 GMT -5
These incidents have been disturbing, but I don't think they'll develop much. These are being carried out by very small splinter groups with almost no public support.
During the dark days of The Troubles, the violent groups on both sides had a lot of tacit support from their respective populations. For example, a lot of Catholics may not have approved of the IRA's methods, but they had legitimate grievances with the British, so if they knew the IRA was stocking weapons somewhere they wouldn't tell anybody.
But things have changed now. The peace process addressed most of people's grievances, and the surging Irish economy reduced the number of people with nothing to do but blow stuff up. As a result, that tacit support is mostly gone. The Catholics also realize that they have a lot to lose now. They don't want the British bringing the army back in and banging down their doors. So they have a big incentive to take care of their own problems, which I think they'll do.
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jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
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Post by jgalt on Mar 13, 2009 11:37:08 GMT -5
But things have changed now. The peace process addressed most of people's grievances, and the surging Irish economy reduced the number of people with nothing to do but blow stuff up. As a result, that tacit support is mostly gone. The Catholics also realize that they have a lot to lose now. They don't want the British bringing the army back in and banging down their doors. So they have a big incentive to take care of their own problems, which I think they'll do. I dont know much about the history of The Troubles, but from what I do know the above is what i hope is the case. I dont think that there will be a huge swell of support for these killings like there may have been in the past. Ireland has changed alot since the last wave of violence. The kids who would be ripe to join in the violence, i would think, would be too young to really remember the violence with a sense of nostalgia. Additionally with the huge swell of immigrants from eastern Europe into Ireland, the population is more diverse now, and there are more social issues than just Catholic vs Protestant (even though that is an important issue).
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Post by EasyEd on Mar 13, 2009 13:37:44 GMT -5
A point of clarification. This new violence is taking place in Northern Ireland which is still part of the British Empire. Most of the booming economy has taken place in the Republic of Ireland which is an independent country, separate from Northern Ireland. As long as there is discrimination in the governing of Northern Ireland against Catholics there will be a problem.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Post by The Stig on Mar 13, 2009 23:14:41 GMT -5
A point of clarification. This new violence is taking place in Northern Ireland which is still part of the British Empire. Most of the booming economy has taken place in the Republic of Ireland which is an independent country, separate from Northern Ireland. As long as there is discrimination in the governing of Northern Ireland against Catholics there will be a problem. True, but the Celtic Tiger was still beneficial to Northern Ireland, especially the Catholics, since they could easily emigrate to the Republic. The increase in available jobs in the Republic acted like a sponge that sucked up huge numbers of unemployed or disaffected Catholics in Northern Ireland, eliminating the IRA's most fertile recruiting ground. During the Troubles, five of the main sources of violence were: 1. High unemployment, especially among Catholics 2. Popularity of the IRA 3. Unionist fear of the IRA 4. Lack of Catholic political representation 5. Presence of the British Army Those issues have all largely disappeared: 1. See above. 2. The IRA then lost public support among Catholics when they overplayed their hand and turned up the violence too much. Enniskillen alienated a lot of people (it was the target of Bono's famous " Edited the Revolution!" rant), and it was downhill from there. The process came full circle when the Omagh bombing cemented the Good Friday Agreement. 3. This decreased when the IRA held to their ceasefires. The Unionists also came along with the peace process when it became clear that the British government was more committed to peace than to protecting Unionist interests. The Unionists realized they didn't have a blank check anymore. 4. Catholics gained true political representation with the Good Friday Agreement. 5. The British Army has withdrawn from Northern Ireland. But the biggest issue is that both the Protestant and Catholic populations of Northern Ireland seem convinced that violence is not the proper way to resolve their troubles.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,910
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Post by Filo on Mar 14, 2009 12:50:19 GMT -5
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