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Post by HoyaAlbany on Feb 7, 2005 12:51:22 GMT -5
Just like in Vegas, it's a critical number. After an exhaustive analysis not only of the Big East, but of the entire NCAA Div. 1 basketball scene, I can confidently say that 11 wins in the Big East - whether all 11 come during the season, or whether we get 10 and then at least 1 in the BET, will get us into the NCAA's.
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alleninxis
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,216
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Post by alleninxis on Feb 7, 2005 12:52:47 GMT -5
I agree and are you in Albany, NY. I'm a freshman at St Rose
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Post by HoyaAlbany on Feb 7, 2005 12:56:33 GMT -5
Yes, I live and work here - GU Law class of '82 (Patrick's freshman season). Nice to have another Hoya fan up here in Orange-Hell!
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HoyaFanNY
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Never throw to the venus on a spider 3 Y banana!
Posts: 4,991
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Feb 7, 2005 13:11:29 GMT -5
utica here, a little closer to the hell mouth.
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Post by HoyaAlbany on Feb 7, 2005 13:16:12 GMT -5
Have faith, Utica - we're turning the corner, and after Warrick graduates - um, sorry, I meant leaves - we will dominate the Orange boys for years to come, just like in the old days. HOYA SAXA!
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Post by aussiehoya on Feb 7, 2005 14:18:55 GMT -5
i love the way you said "exhaustive analysis". what exactly does that mean pray tell?
but yes I agree - 11 wins in the big east makes us a lock for the tourney in my opinion. 11 wins does NOT look likely though.
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GUHoya07
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,083
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Post by GUHoya07 on Feb 7, 2005 14:25:25 GMT -5
It looks very possible to me if you consider the Big East Tournament. It could even be possible without the BET but I'm still a fan of the one game at a time approach.
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Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 18,485
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Feb 7, 2005 15:52:57 GMT -5
Seven is also a critical number out here, so we have that one down. As they say here, seven come 11. ;D
GO HOYAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FLASH SOME LIGHTNING ON THE MOUNTAINEERS!!!!!!!!!!
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 16:21:34 GMT -5
1 at a time is key, but I couldn't agree more on the 11 wins as the magic number.
That would put us in the mid-40's in the RPI and right in the picture.
Beating West VA is huge folks. They just beat PITT in OT so no looking ahead.
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Post by HoyaAlbany on Feb 7, 2005 16:23:53 GMT -5
We definitely can't look past W Va - but they are a much better team at home, plus Pitt is their big rival, so hopefully they have a flatter game against us, and we come out eager to go after a week off.
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 16:30:09 GMT -5
Yeah. I loved the week off when we got it. I think it was perfect timing for Green and teh young guys to get settled again and get their footing for the stretch run.
I was worried about the guys after the BC loss, but they really sucked it up and got a couple of nice wins.
I also love the week off before the NOVA game. For some strange scheduling quirk we've played the most games of any team in the Big East at this point. The good thing is we have a couple of week long breaks down the stretch.
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Post by HeartAttackHoya on Feb 7, 2005 16:38:19 GMT -5
additionally,
Ten and a regular season win against one of the big 3 will get us in (obviously this would mean us getting upset by one of our winnables i.e. providence)
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 16:40:05 GMT -5
Might be right...a win at UCONN or ND would a long ways towards getting us in. Good road wins are huge....
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Anyone here? What am I supposed to update?
Posts: 9,427
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Post by MCIGuy on Feb 7, 2005 19:21:20 GMT -5
Just like in Vegas, it's a critical number. After an exhaustive analysis not only of the Big East, but of the entire NCAA Div. 1 basketball scene, I can confidently say that 11 wins in the Big East - whether all 11 come during the season, or whether we get 10 and then at least 1 in the BET, will get us into the NCAA's. I was listening to Sports 980 and one guy kept insisting that if Maryland went 7 and 9 in the ACC they would get in even though they zero big non conference wins. How does that happen? |
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Post by chinatownfanclub on Feb 7, 2005 20:00:16 GMT -5
I was listening to Sports 980 and one guy kept insisting that if Maryland went 7 and 9 in the ACC they would get in even though they zero big non conference wins. How does that happen? B/c the ACC is the "BEST" conference in the country  Twerps have no shot if they go 7-9 b/c it will put them 5th or 6th in conference behind either Vtech or Miami. Neither of those teams is going to get in so they are not going to take the Twerps over one or both of those teams that will have finished ahead of them in conference. |
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 20:19:32 GMT -5
Read Lunardi's analysis today. He is right when he says the committee doesn't look at conference record or standings. I know no one wants to believe this fact, but they just lay out the facts of the situation.
I just did some research and MD would be around 35 in the RPI if they finish 7-9 in the ACC. They have a great out of conference schedule and the ACC is the highest rated conference.
It might be tough, but as crazy as it sounds MD would have an RPI at least 10 spots higher than us if we were 11-5 in teh Big East and they were 7-9 in teh ACC.
7-9 team have made it before...
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 20:24:03 GMT -5
Here is the link to Lunardi...good reading and he's right. This is why MD will be the tournament and everyone will howl at the moon. In fact they have a projected #7 SOS at the end of the season. The committee will give that a ton of credit. proxy.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=afc&id=1986166 |
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Post by FrostbackHoya on Feb 7, 2005 20:25:42 GMT -5
Is there much history about teams being chosen even though they're BELOW a team which does not get a bid in conference standings?
Is it rare or does it occur fairly often?
(And I'm not talking about somebody who wins their conference tournaement.)
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 7, 2005 20:31:42 GMT -5
MCI, wouldn't you agree that teams that get a bye in the first round of the BET usually get a bid? This may not be a rule that the Committee uses, but it seems to be a good indicator of what ultimately happens. With the change in format to 5 teams with byes for this season, I am slightly uncomfortable in saying that the fifth team will get a bye. Nonetheless, I think the top 4 will be in good shape irrespective to their RPI as compared to other teams in the conference.
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FOTP
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,435
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Post by FOTP on Feb 7, 2005 20:32:57 GMT -5
It's actually very rare to be honest. However, 7-9 teams do get in and 8-8 get in all the time. I went back over the past 4 or 5 years in some of the major conferences and it usually goes in order. Sometimes one 8-8 team gets in and another doesn't etc., but usually it goes in order. However, when you look at it the RPIs usually go in order too.
Heck MD made it last year and they were 7-9 in the ACC!!!
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