3/3 Games of Interest

[GIGAFAN99]

Hoyas v St. Johns
Who we want: Hoyas. We're the Hoyas. In case you were confused.

Cincy v USF
Who we want: USF. In a pinch USF, just to knock Cincy back to 8-9 and make the committee think a bit. They still won't be a bad loss but we'd get some space.

Utah v New Mexico
Who we want: Utah but not a big deal. NM is fool's gold. They're NIT all the way.

KSU v OSU
Who we want: OSU. K State is done, OK state is in. Let's just stop the KSU insanity and get them off the bubble.

Wake v Maryland
Who we want: Terps by a hair. Terps lose and they fall back. Terps win and they're in and we get a big win. If I had to choose, I'd go Terps. Simply put, I want BC and Maryland to move ahead of paper tigers Miami and VA Tech definitively.

Ohio State v Iowa
Who we want: Iowa. Knocks Ohio State onto the bubble.

Here's a shock: most critical game for us is ours. Go Hoyas!

[RusskyHoya]

I know this is a bit convoluted, but we actually want Cinci to win out and finish 10-8, so that if everything else does fall as expected, it will create a tie for 6th that Providence would win (largely on the strength of their two wins over Cinci). This is assuming we would prefer to face Providence above any other team, of course.

If Provy, Cuse, and WVU finish 10-8 and Cinci doesn't, then the first tie-breaker doesn't work (each team in the 'mini-conference would be 1-1, as Providence beat Cuse and lost to WVU, WVU beat Providence and lost to Cuse, and Cuse beat WVU and lost to Providence).

The next tie-breaker would be "who has the best record against the highest-ranked team in the league." None of them have beaten UConn, Louisville, or Pitt, 10-8 assumes Cuse will have lost to Marquette so no one will have beaten the Golden Flu, leading us finally to Villanova. 10-8 assumes Providence will have lost to Nova, and Nova also beat 'Cuse twice, but they lost to WVU. This would make WVU the #6 seed, Providence #7, and 'Cuse #8.

I am a moron. As RBHoya says, Providence beat Pitt, so they would win the tiebreaker. Neeever mind.

[jkhoya12]

Mar 2, 2009 22:35:50 GMT -5 RusskyHoya said:

I know this is a bit convoluted, but we actually want Cinci to win out and finish 10-8, so that if everything else does fall as expected, it will create a tie for 6th that Providence would win (largely on the strength of their two wins over Cinci). This is assuming we would prefer to face Providence above any other team, of course.

If Provy, Cuse, and WVU finish 10-8 and Cinci doesn't, then the first tie-breaker doesn't work (each team in the 'mini-conference would be 1-1, as Providence beat Cuse and lost to WVU, WVU beat Providence and lost to Cuse, and Cuse beat WVU and lost to Providence).

The next tie-breaker would be "who has the best record against the highest-ranked team in the league." None of them have beaten UConn, Louisville, or Pitt, 10-8 assumes Cuse will have lost to Marquette so no one will have beaten the Golden Flu, leading us finally to Villanova. 10-8 assumes Providence will have lost to Nova, and Nova also beat 'Cuse twice, but they lost to WVU. This would make WVU the #6 seed, Providence #7, and 'Cuse #8.

See I think that Providence improved immensely just from playing us somewhat close. They've been a real good team since that game, and I don't like to count out teams that have elite coaching, no matter how little talent they have.

[vcjack]

"Wake v Maryland
Who we want: Terps by a hair. Terps lose and they fall back. Terps win and they're in and we get a big win. If I had to choose, I'd go Terps. Simply put, I want BC and Maryland to move ahead of paper tigers Miami and VA Tech definitively"


Perhaps you're right but we still want them to lose. If the Terps make the dance instead of us that would be devestating.

[Bando]

Mar 3, 2009 9:40:31 GMT -5 vcjack said:

"Wake v Maryland
Who we want: Terps by a hair. Terps lose and they fall back. Terps win and they're in and we get a big win. If I had to choose, I'd go Terps. Simply put, I want BC and Maryland to move ahead of paper tigers Miami and VA Tech definitively"


Perhaps you're right but we still want them to lose. If the Terps make the dance instead of us that would be devestating.

I think Giga's right. Maryland continuing to win puts them into the "quality win" category for us. As much as it pains me to say, I think it's in our interest for the Terps to keep winning this year.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

I dunno i'm torn. I think we have enough quality wins with out them. And On the off chance we don't make it i'd much rather have them not make it as well. I don't think i could stand it if they made it and we didn't.

[RBHoya]

Mar 2, 2009 22:35:50 GMT -5 RusskyHoya said:

The next tie-breaker would be "who has the best record against the highest-ranked team in the league." None of them have beaten UConn, Louisville, or Pitt,

Providence beat Pitt.

[dungeon ball]

Mar 2, 2009 22:13:14 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Wake v Maryland
Who we want: Terps by a hair. Terps lose and they fall back. Terps win and they're in and we get a big win. If I had to choose, I'd go Terps. Simply put, I want BC and Maryland to move ahead of paper tigers Miami and VA Tech definitively.

Isn't Maryland taking up bubble space though? Wouldn't it be better for us if they weren't there?

[Buckets]

I don't see why we don't want UMD to get rocked tonight. If they lose tonight and then don't go too far in the ACC tourney, that leaves them with a worse RPI, worse SOS, only one less loss than us; and 'Cuse and Nova are both much better wins than anyone else they've beaten... I don't think they get taken over us if we're both on the bubble.

[jgalt]

Mar 2, 2009 22:13:14 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Hoyas v St. Johns
Who we want: Hoyas. We're the Hoyas. In case you were confused.

Thanks for clearing that up!

[KHoyaNYC]

Mar 3, 2009 14:14:31 GMT -5 Buckets said:

I don't see why we don't want UMD to get rocked tonight. If they lose tonight and then don't go too far in the ACC tourney, that leaves them with a worse RPI, worse SOS, only one less loss than us; and 'Cuse and Nova are both much better wins than anyone else they've beaten... I don't think they get taken over us if we're both on the bubble.

Below is why we want Maryland to win (from a post I previously did). GIGA is right - we shouldn't worry about Maryland taking up an at-large spot because we'd rather compete with other bubble teams with lesser profiles. But Maryland winning and winning boosts our RPI and gives us another marquee win without even having to play a game, there is really no one else on our schedule at this point that affords us that opportunity:

First, if Maryland keeps winning they'll get off the bubble and then presumably we wouldn't be fighting with them for a final spot in the tourney. What we don't want to happen is have Maryland end up squarely with us on the bubble with the same types of quality wins we have (remember Maryland beat UNC on road and Michigan State on neutral court). We want to put a blowout of Maryland on a neutral court in the quality win category.

Two, what other teams do can have a major impact on your RPI. 50 percent of the RPI is your OPPONENTS average winning percentage. That's gigantic. Georgetown's predicted RPI moved 3 spots down this morning (from 31 to 34) just based on SUNDAY's games. We absolutely want that RPI to stay in the 30s.

Bottom line, if Maryland keeps winning our RPI gets better, our quality wins resume improves, and we don't have to fight with them for a bubble bid, which is good because there are a lot of other weaker bubble teams out there I'd rather be compared too (see Florida/Kentucky for example).

[hoyarooter]

As I said on another thread, we don't root for Maryland. It's better for Maryland to lose out, and for us to earn our way in. The NIT is Maryland's birthright. Keep them there.

[KHoyaNYC]

Mar 3, 2009 14:22:50 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

As I said on another thread, we don't root for Maryland. It's better for Maryland to lose out, and for us to earn our way in. The NIT is Maryland's birthright. Keep them there.

From a "I hate that team perspective" absolutely true. And if Maryalnd hits the skids for the next few games, also true.

For NCAA purposes, it's really an all or nothing approach with Maryland. If they win out through the ACC tournament, that's fantastic for us. If they lose their next 3 games and go NIT, that's fine too (although not quite as good as option 1). What would be bad for us is if they do something down the middle because then we don't get the benefit of a marquee win and rising RPI or having them out of NCAA consideration.

This is all based on the NCAA tourney selection process. Computer numbers and high profile wins are critical, and they are all we got, because our overall record ain't so hot.

[jgalt]

If i root for UMD and their winning know Gtown out of the Tourney can i start an "I told You So/It's all your fault" thread?

Ill root for UMD, but i just dont want the responsibility for any negative consequences

[Fan Of The Game]

I'm rooting againt Maryland.

Unless they win the ACC Tournament, our early-season win over them on a neutral court is not going to be considered marquee. Even if they do win the ACC Tournament I'm not sure how marquee it would be; committee members are not-dummies.

As for RPI consequences, I guess I'll channel my rooting interests into the Savannah State game tomorrow night against the Rajin' Cajuns. A win for them has about as much positive RPI impact as a Maryland win would.

So assuming we can win 4-5 more games, I'd rather see Maryland out of the mix. Because a) the less competition for at-large spots the better, and b) I hate them.

[KHoyaNYC]

Mar 3, 2009 17:38:02 GMT -5 Fan Of The Game said:

I'm rooting againt Maryland.

Unless they win the ACC Tournament, our early-season win over them on a neutral court is not going to be considered marquee. Even if they do win the ACC Tournament I'm not sure how marquee it would be; committee members are not-dummies.

As for RPI consequences, I guess I'll channel my rooting interests into the Savannah State game tomorrow night against the Rajin' Cajuns. A win for them has about as much positive RPI impact as a Maryland win would.

So assuming we can win 4-5 more games, I'd rather see Maryland out of the mix. Because a) the less competition for at-large spots the better, and b) I hate them.

Totally understand - but I'll give you one more reason to root for Maryland this week.

Maryland's RPI right now is 53. The NCAA selection committee card considers a "marquee" win any victory over RPI 1-50 (someone posted the link to the committee card earlier, I don't have it handy). Anyway, if Maryland wins the next two games, their predicted RPI goes down to 43, and barring some major upset in the ACC tourney, it will stay below 50. There is your marquee win.

[Fan Of The Game]

Point taken, I misunderstood the term.

I'll revise my sentiment: I still hate the Terps and think knocking them out of the running helps us much more significantly than the marginal positives it would bring to our resume.

[superan]

Looks like USF is pulling away on Cincinnati 61-52 with 1:25 to go

[adlai]

It's over. Cincy falls. Who would have thought?

[chep3]

Jesus. Why couldn't we have poached one of those games?