Post by sbgorms on Feb 6, 2005 14:56:56 GMT -5
I had some free time today, so I thought I’d line up the 7 Big East teams with NCAA aspirations and see how they’re looking at this point: my apologies to West Virginia, Seton Hall, Rutgers, St. John’s and Providence--maybe next year. Here are the numbers (RPIs can vary according to site…I used Warren Nolan, they’re all in the same ballpark).
Team, Record, Conference, RPI, Big Games Left
BC 20-0, 9-0, 3, (4) @ ND, SU, @ NOVA, PITT
‘Cuse 21-2, 8-1, 13, (5) CONN, @ NOVA, PITT, @ BC, CONN
HOYAS 15-6, 7-3, 37, (3) @ ND, NOVA, @ CONN
UConn 14-5, 6-3, 33, (6) @ SU, UNC, ND, @ PITT, GU, SU
Pitt 15-4, 5-3, 48, (6) ND, @ SU, @ NOVA, CONN, @ BC, @ ND
‘Nova 13-5, 5-4, 22, (4) SU, PITT, BC, @ GU
ND 13-6, 5-4, 58, (6) BC, @ PITT, GU, @ CONN, UCLA, PITT
Thoughts on the conference records it will take to lock in a postseason birth GOING INTO the Big East tourney:
CONF RECORD, TOURAMENT ODDS
GU 11-5 (4-2 down the stretch) 75%
CONN 11-5 (5-2) 85%
PITT 10-6 (5-3) 70%
NOVA 10-6 (5-2) 65%
ND 11-5 (6-1) 25%
I see BC and Syracuse as locks, assuming they don’t go winless down the stretch, which isn’t going to happen, so I didn’t include them. Pitt and ‘Nova I think are both in pretty good shape, although Pitt has to win 1 or 2 tough road games, while ‘Nova has to avoid losing to teams they shouldn’t lose to. The Wildcats RPI should pull them in if they are able to get to 10 conference wins. Connecticut is also in good RPI shape, and a 10-6 conference record may even guarantee them a bid, especially if they knock off UNC in their one remaining non-conference game. Notre Dame I think is the most likely to be on the outside looking in when it comes tournament time unless they make a BET run. Why? They already have four conference losses and the worst RPI of the top 7 Big East teams, with a demanding schedule going down the stretch. I could easily seem them losing 3-4 more games, and that will leave them on the outside looking in unless they make a run to the Big East finals. Or even win it all.
Georgetown likely has the easiest schedule going down the homestretch, and if they can avoid any upsets and win one of their three biggies (ND, NOVA or CONN), I think they’re a lock at 11-5 going into the BET. 10-6 I believe will make the Hoyas a lock if they beat both ND and NOVA, as that will mean sweeps of their major competition for the final Big East spots. One BET win will also solidify a 10-6 Georgetown team. 9-7 will be tough, as it will mean a 2-4 record for the Hoyas coming down the homestretch and a major dent in the RPI, and I think a trip to the BET finals would be necessary, and wouldn’t even make GU a lock.
So what’s the end result of all this? Win the next four and make things easy. Start with West Virginia next week. Thoughts?
Team, Record, Conference, RPI, Big Games Left
BC 20-0, 9-0, 3, (4) @ ND, SU, @ NOVA, PITT
‘Cuse 21-2, 8-1, 13, (5) CONN, @ NOVA, PITT, @ BC, CONN
HOYAS 15-6, 7-3, 37, (3) @ ND, NOVA, @ CONN
UConn 14-5, 6-3, 33, (6) @ SU, UNC, ND, @ PITT, GU, SU
Pitt 15-4, 5-3, 48, (6) ND, @ SU, @ NOVA, CONN, @ BC, @ ND
‘Nova 13-5, 5-4, 22, (4) SU, PITT, BC, @ GU
ND 13-6, 5-4, 58, (6) BC, @ PITT, GU, @ CONN, UCLA, PITT
Thoughts on the conference records it will take to lock in a postseason birth GOING INTO the Big East tourney:
CONF RECORD, TOURAMENT ODDS
GU 11-5 (4-2 down the stretch) 75%
CONN 11-5 (5-2) 85%
PITT 10-6 (5-3) 70%
NOVA 10-6 (5-2) 65%
ND 11-5 (6-1) 25%
I see BC and Syracuse as locks, assuming they don’t go winless down the stretch, which isn’t going to happen, so I didn’t include them. Pitt and ‘Nova I think are both in pretty good shape, although Pitt has to win 1 or 2 tough road games, while ‘Nova has to avoid losing to teams they shouldn’t lose to. The Wildcats RPI should pull them in if they are able to get to 10 conference wins. Connecticut is also in good RPI shape, and a 10-6 conference record may even guarantee them a bid, especially if they knock off UNC in their one remaining non-conference game. Notre Dame I think is the most likely to be on the outside looking in when it comes tournament time unless they make a BET run. Why? They already have four conference losses and the worst RPI of the top 7 Big East teams, with a demanding schedule going down the stretch. I could easily seem them losing 3-4 more games, and that will leave them on the outside looking in unless they make a run to the Big East finals. Or even win it all.
Georgetown likely has the easiest schedule going down the homestretch, and if they can avoid any upsets and win one of their three biggies (ND, NOVA or CONN), I think they’re a lock at 11-5 going into the BET. 10-6 I believe will make the Hoyas a lock if they beat both ND and NOVA, as that will mean sweeps of their major competition for the final Big East spots. One BET win will also solidify a 10-6 Georgetown team. 9-7 will be tough, as it will mean a 2-4 record for the Hoyas coming down the homestretch and a major dent in the RPI, and I think a trip to the BET finals would be necessary, and wouldn’t even make GU a lock.
So what’s the end result of all this? Win the next four and make things easy. Start with West Virginia next week. Thoughts?
gotta believer and ther are all my conn relatives who cant stop about the dual champs last year well what the heck lets take it to the huskies we need the cuse to beat them mon and then nd gets beat by bc ouch hard to root for the traitors but need to in that one and then we beat west va.. and who knows what tommarrow will bring the huskies at ucon well no way but no point guard NO POINT GUARD we gotta believe go hoyas one by one ;D