GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
|
NCAA
Mar 2, 2009 19:38:10 GMT -5
Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 2, 2009 19:38:10 GMT -5
The hilarity of the prognosticators right now is all the 60+ teams they have in it. 7 teams with a 60+ RPI have made it since 1995. SEVEN in 14 years!
But Providence, Kentucky, Penn State...yeah they're golden. ND? Right there. VA Tech at 59 is a slam dunk.
Seriously, wait a week and see where all these guys move. I bet the number of 60+ teams and teams with 2 or fewer top 50 wins are suddenly on the outside.
|
|
Hoyaholic
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 748
|
NCAA
Mar 2, 2009 20:40:09 GMT -5
Post by Hoyaholic on Mar 2, 2009 20:40:09 GMT -5
There's another factor at play that I haven't seen discussed, and that is how conference tournament results can skew a team's resume. For example, I absolutely believe that Villanova got in last year because Pitt won the BET and shot up the seedings. That gave Nova a win over a 3 seed as opposed to a probable 7-8 seed. Nova walked off the court in MSG figuring they were headed to the NIT, but suddenly their resume improved dramatically and they get in.
We have the same opportunity with Nova and Syracuse this year. Right now SU is a "good" win and Nova is a "good / very good" win. Either one wins the BET and they become a 3 seed themselves and it looks like a "great" win.
Conversely, if we make a run to the finals, Cincinnati may get a big boost by having swept us, or Providence might get a boost if Cincy gets to the finals.
The point is everyone's resume is still pretty fluid - the "quality" of a win already on the books could still improve dramatically.
|
|
|
NCAA
Mar 2, 2009 22:39:54 GMT -5
Post by westendhoya on Mar 2, 2009 22:39:54 GMT -5
B101's response to my question about whether the ND loss was especially big for Gtown:
" ND's loss tonight is huge news for Providence, Cincinnati, and Georgetown, but it's especially good news for the Hoyas, who came into the day fourth on the list of Big East bubble teams. If the Hoyas can get to 8-10 as expected, we can definitely see a scenario where they win two Big East tourney games and get a bid. They are the new "leap frog" team in the league, if you will, replacing ND. A lot still has to go right in terms of bid-stealers and other big conference bubble teams losing, but the Hoyas are closer to the field now than they were a few hours ago. "
|
|
FLHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Proud Member of Generation Burton
Posts: 4,544
|
NCAA
Mar 2, 2009 23:40:14 GMT -5
Post by FLHoya on Mar 2, 2009 23:40:14 GMT -5
The hilarity of the prognosticators right now is all the 60+ teams they have in it. 7 teams with a 60+ RPI have made it since 1995. SEVEN in 14 years! But Providence, Kentucky, Penn State...yeah they're golden. ND? Right there. VA Tech at 59 is a slam dunk. Seriously, wait a week and see where all these guys move. I bet the number of 60+ teams and teams with 2 or fewer top 50 wins are suddenly on the outside. Haven't read much of this thread, so IDK if this was discussed...but it seems odd to me this year how so many TV commentators are going out of their way to de-emphasize the actual RPI number, in favor of the "nitty gritty" as it were. Is the selection committee totally ditching the S-curve or something? Seem to remember reading a column (perhaps Andy Katz) a few weeks ago that seemed to set the stage for this whole line of thinking amongst the talking heads. I suppose this is the way Providence gets heavy consideration despite the 70-ish RPI--they've got the 10-7 conference record. Course the point in the end I guess--you're judged on March 15th (Nat Burton Day, btw). If we pull off the 5-straight scenario and get to the BET QF, that'll give us a big boost in the conference record and Last 10 portion of the "nitty gritty" that seems to be so importantly--rhetorically anyway--this season.
|
|
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 1:17:50 GMT -5
Post by westendhoya on Mar 3, 2009 1:17:50 GMT -5
My 2 cents on finishing 8-10 + 1 W in BET which I posted on another site...
I also think Georgetown, though far from in, would present a compelling case for the committee closing 8-10 and 1 win the BET. However, a lot depends on who the team they lose to would be. If it is Providence or Cincinnati then I agree it is a must win. However, if they are matched up with Syracuse or WV a good showing in a loss might be enough to get them in. Before arguing too hard against this, please look at Arizona's resume last year. They were 19-14 (9-11) in a weaker conference and struggled more at the end of the year. Remember, if Georgetown finishes 8-10 and wins one in the BET they would be 4-1 in their last 5 before selection Sunday with the No.1 SOS and the best collection of marquee wins of any team on the bubble. (They are the ONLY team in the country to have beaten two teams in the top 5 right now). They also have 2 top-15 road RPI wins. I just don't see the committee leaving them out if there is any justification for taking them. They want to encourage teams to play hard schedules and leaving Gtown out under these circumstances would be a disincentive to do so. However, a lot will depend on other circumstances around the country. The Villanova win vs. ND was big as it moved their RPI up to 13. If they can go on any kind of run here at the end of the season and finish with top-10 RPI, Gtown would have 2 top-10 RPI road wins. Just don't see that being overlooked.
|
|
Buckets
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,656
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 3:35:45 GMT -5
Post by Buckets on Mar 3, 2009 3:35:45 GMT -5
I might be missing something but I was playing around with the RPI numbers and I'm having trouble with this WarrenNolan predicted RPI site. Just a note on the method I was using -- I used our Win %, then took SOS and RPI from Warren Nolan and basically figured our opponents' opponents' Win % to be .5786. Then I just started averaging -- giving those initial numbers a 27-game weight, and averaging in Win % and SOS for the teams we play (or theoretically would play) from the WN site.
The way I have it, should we win our final two games, the .031 improvement in our win percentage is more than offset by the .018 drop in our SOS from playing two bad teams, since SOS counts twice as much. The opponents' opponents' effect is pretty negligible -- winning our next two games puts us in the area of .592, well short of the .6042 that the WN site has.
The site says it predicts Conference tourneys as the matchups are determined so I ran through a theoretical conference tournament scenario. I threw in wins against USF, Providence, and then a loss to Pitt to see what this would do to our RPI, and I came out with .594, with a final Win% of .59375 and an SOS of .603 (again, opp opp win % changes negligibly). Again, I'm estimating, but I think we're going to fall a full hundredth -- about ten spots -- short of where that RPI predictor puts us.
|
|
Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 6:54:12 GMT -5
Post by Locker on Mar 3, 2009 6:54:12 GMT -5
I might be missing something but I was playing around with the RPI numbers and I'm having trouble with this WarrenNolan predicted RPI site. Just a note on the method I was using -- I used our Win %, then took SOS and RPI from Warren Nolan and basically figured our opponents' opponents' Win % to be .5786. Then I just started averaging -- giving those initial numbers a 27-game weight, and averaging in Win % and SOS for the teams we play (or theoretically would play) from the WN site. The way I have it, should we win our final two games, the .031 improvement in our win percentage is more than offset by the .018 drop in our SOS from playing two bad teams, since SOS counts twice as much. The opponents' opponents' effect is pretty negligible -- winning our next two games puts us in the area of .592, well short of the .6042 that the WN site has. The site says it predicts Conference tourneys as the matchups are determined so I ran through a theoretical conference tournament scenario. I threw in wins against USF, Providence, and then a loss to Pitt to see what this would do to our RPI, and I came out with .594, with a final Win% of .59375 and an SOS of .603 (again, opp opp win % changes negligibly). Again, I'm estimating, but I think we're going to fall a full hundredth -- about ten spots -- short of where that RPI predictor puts us. Interesting. Did your analysis reflect that our existing SOS -- based on the teams we have played to date -- will tend to improve over the next week and a half separate and apart from the additional games we play, on the assumption (used by WN) that higher rated RPI teams (lots of which we have played already) will continue to beat lower rated teams? I wonder if that accounts for the disparity.
|
|
Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 10:36:49 GMT -5
Post by Locker on Mar 3, 2009 10:36:49 GMT -5
Another website (www.rpiforecast.com) disagrees with the Warren Nolan predicted RPI for us. RPI Forecast says:
--two wins this week keeps us at 40 (39.8 is the prediction, actually) --then a 1-1 showing in the BET drops us to 45 (44.9) --a 2-1 BET showing would get us to 38 (38.1) --a 3-1 BET showing would get us to 33 (32.5)
Bummer. I have no idea what accounts for the discrepancy or who is more likely to be correct. If RPI Forecast is correct, then it does seem like we have to win the second BET game to have a realistic shot.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 10:41:02 GMT -5
Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 3, 2009 10:41:02 GMT -5
Another website (www.rpiforecast.com) disagrees with the Warren Nolan predicted RPI for us. RPI Forecast says: --two wins this week keeps us at 40 (39.8 is the prediction, actually) --then a 1-1 showing in the BET drops us to 45 (44.9) --a 2-1 BET showing would get us to 38 (38.1) --a 3-1 BET showing would get us to 33 (32.5) Bummer. I have no idea what accounts for the discrepancy or who is more likely to be correct. If RPI Forecast is correct, then it does seem like we have to win the second BET game to have a realistic shot. It's a must win, especially if we play Providence. I do agree with West End that things could go our way if we lose a really close one to WVU and lots of other stuff goes our way... But more or less, we have to win two. It's not so much we need the win as we simply can't have the loss.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,607
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 10:51:21 GMT -5
Post by guru on Mar 3, 2009 10:51:21 GMT -5
If we don't end up winning the BET, but make a strong end of season run - 4-1 or 5-1, shouldn't we be rooting for UConn to win the BET and lock up a #1 seed, and for Memphis to avoid the upset and take the CUSA tourney. That would give us 2 wins against #1 seeds - pretty damn strong for a bubble team.
|
|
CAHoya07
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,598
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 10:57:09 GMT -5
Post by CAHoya07 on Mar 3, 2009 10:57:09 GMT -5
It's interesting talk, but the speculation means nothing if we can't beat St. John's tonight. So, let's do it!
Also, playing St. John's, DePaul, and whomever we face in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Tuesday will probably hurt our strength of schedule a little bit. It'll still be very strong, but probably not #1 in the country.
|
|
Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 11:03:21 GMT -5
Post by Locker on Mar 3, 2009 11:03:21 GMT -5
Another website (www.rpiforecast.com) disagrees with the Warren Nolan predicted RPI for us. RPI Forecast says: --two wins this week keeps us at 40 (39.8 is the prediction, actually) --then a 1-1 showing in the BET drops us to 45 (44.9) --a 2-1 BET showing would get us to 38 (38.1) --a 3-1 BET showing would get us to 33 (32.5) Bummer. I have no idea what accounts for the discrepancy or who is more likely to be correct. If RPI Forecast is correct, then it does seem like we have to win the second BET game to have a realistic shot. It's a must win, especially if we play Providence. I do agree with West End that things could go our way if we lose a really close one to WVU and lots of other stuff goes our way... But more or less, we have to win two. It's not so much we need the win as we simply can't have the loss. SF, do you know who's more likely right about our post-Depaul game RPI number? The difference between 34 and 40 seems huge right now.
|
|
CO_Hoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,109
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 11:33:51 GMT -5
Post by CO_Hoya on Mar 3, 2009 11:33:51 GMT -5
Here are a couple of other resources for bubble watchers: First, the bad: Simulation of the NCAA Selection Sheets for Georgetown ( link) - this is the info sheet that the selection committee uses to evaluate teams. A whole lot of red on Georgetown's sheet. Next, the good: Soft Pretzel Logic (Philly.com blog) keeps a summary for a few conferences of a couple of the stats (Wins v. RPI Top 50, Losses v. RPI 200+, Avg.RPI Win, Avg. RPI Loss) that the author (and others) think are very important to the committee ( link). Georgetown compares very well in Avg.RPI Win and Avg. RPI Loss.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 11:44:06 GMT -5
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2009 11:44:06 GMT -5
I still dont buy the Arizona analogy. Arizona had 10 of its 18 wins against the RPI 100, and 12 of its 14 losses. We are nowhere close to that. With one win in the Big East, we would have what, 7 RPI top 100 wins (Prov, Syracuse, Nova, Memphis, Maryland, UConn, American). That is what happens when you are 6-10, and in 11th place in the Big East. We just arent Arizona last year. We will live and die off 3 big wins, IMO - Memphis, UConn, and Nova. If the committee reasons that is good enough, we might get in. I think even 2 Big East wins still puts us one other conference upset away from being out.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,607
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 11:59:31 GMT -5
Post by guru on Mar 3, 2009 11:59:31 GMT -5
I still dont buy the Arizona analogy. Arizona had 10 of its 18 wins against the RPI 100, and 12 of its 14 losses. We are nowhere close to that. With one win in the Big East, we would have what, 7 RPI top 100 wins (Prov, Syracuse, Nova, Memphis, Maryland, UConn, American). That is what happens when you are 6-10, and in 11th place in the Big East. We just arent Arizona last year. We will live and die off 3 big wins, IMO - Memphis, UConn, and Nova. If the committee reasons that is good enough, we might get in. I think even 2 Big East wins still puts us one other conference upset away from being out. OTOH, we have 4 wins over top 20 RPI teams (and perhaps more depending on what happens in the BET). Last year, Arizona had zero wins over RPI top 20 teams - and only 2 wins over RPI top 25 teams (2 wins over RPI #21 WSU). Our good wins are far better than theirs were. Also, 11 of our 12 losses are against top 100 teams right now, and it's conceivable that Seton Hall could get back inside the top 100, making all of our losses to top 100 teams. I think it's a pretty fair comparison between us and the 2008 Arizona team.
|
|
seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,672
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 11:59:42 GMT -5
Post by seaweed on Mar 3, 2009 11:59:42 GMT -5
It's that lower portion of the simulated selection cmte sheet that we can change the last 12 is 3-9 right now, but our next three games will boot off Duke, WVU and SHU - that stretch where the losses just got worse each time. Replace those three with 3 Ws and the look of that crucial lower section changes a lot - 6-6 with 3 road wins, one neutral site and oneroad win against a top 15 team. The 6 remaining loses would be RPI 10, 23, 27, 27, 53 and 53. Win that first BET game and play another, one of the Cincy losses gets booted too. though we may stay at 6-6, the loss will be a better one.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 12:02:12 GMT -5
Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 3, 2009 12:02:12 GMT -5
No clue, Locker.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 12:04:28 GMT -5
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2009 12:04:28 GMT -5
I still dont buy the Arizona analogy. Arizona had 10 of its 18 wins against the RPI 100, and 12 of its 14 losses. We are nowhere close to that. With one win in the Big East, we would have what, 7 RPI top 100 wins (Prov, Syracuse, Nova, Memphis, Maryland, UConn, American). That is what happens when you are 6-10, and in 11th place in the Big East. We just arent Arizona last year. We will live and die off 3 big wins, IMO - Memphis, UConn, and Nova. If the committee reasons that is good enough, we might get in. I think even 2 Big East wins still puts us one other conference upset away from being out. OTOH, we have 4 wins over top 20 RPI teams (and perhaps more depending on what happens in the BET). Last year, Arizona had zero wins over RPI top 20 teams - and only 2 wins over RPI top 25 teams (2 wins over RPI #21 WSU). Our good wins are far better than theirs were. Also, 11 of our 12 losses are against top 100 teams right now, and it's conceivable that Seton Hall could get back inside the top 100, making all of our losses to top 100 teams. I think it's a pretty fair comparison between us and the 2008 Arizona team. But, that is my point. We are not like Arizona for all the reasons you just say. So, what is the point of making an analogy to Arizona? I stand by what you and I just said, what keeps us in the conversation is BIG wins, not amount of top 100 wins. What got Arizona in is amount of top 100 wins.
|
|
guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,607
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 12:12:42 GMT -5
Post by guru on Mar 3, 2009 12:12:42 GMT -5
OTOH, we have 4 wins over top 20 RPI teams (and perhaps more depending on what happens in the BET). Last year, Arizona had zero wins over RPI top 20 teams - and only 2 wins over RPI top 25 teams (2 wins over RPI #21 WSU). Our good wins are far better than theirs were. Also, 11 of our 12 losses are against top 100 teams right now, and it's conceivable that Seton Hall could get back inside the top 100, making all of our losses to top 100 teams. I think it's a pretty fair comparison between us and the 2008 Arizona team. But, that is my point. We are not like Arizona for all the reasons you just say. So, what is the point of making an analogy to Arizona? I stand by what you and I just said, what keeps us in the conversation is BIG wins, not amount of top 100 wins. What got Arizona in is amount of top 100 wins. gotcha
|
|
Buckets
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,656
|
NCAA
Mar 3, 2009 13:54:32 GMT -5
Post by Buckets on Mar 3, 2009 13:54:32 GMT -5
It's a must win, especially if we play Providence. I do agree with West End that things could go our way if we lose a really close one to WVU and lots of other stuff goes our way... But more or less, we have to win two. It's not so much we need the win as we simply can't have the loss. SF, do you know who's more likely right about our post-Depaul game RPI number? The difference between 34 and 40 seems huge right now. Locker, if you do what I did above (27-game weight to our current components, then throw in the SJU and DePaul W% and SOS), you end up with about .5925 -- this is about .0035 off from what RPI forecast says. I'm guessing this is because all our SOS components regress toward .500, since a Big East team winning means another Big East team lost. So, there's a little wiggle room based on whether or not a team we played twice wins or loses, and what the teams we played out of conference do, but I'd expect us to end up right around .589 after DePaul (provided we win our next two). Where this ranks obviously depends on what teams around us do, but RPIForecast puts us on the wrong side of 40.
|
|