Was this really just a blip?

[FrazierFanatic]

Arguably we have only played 2 really good games this season, UConn and SU, in both of which we shot well over our average, especially from 3. We got tromped by what appears to be a mediocre Tennessee team, as well as by Pitt and ND, we struggled at home with providence, we barely beat a mediocre Memphis team in OT. This is looking more and more like the 7th or 8th place BE team we were predicted to be, 10-8 in the league, a 9-11 seed in the NCAA's and a first or second round exit.

[1227]

At this point, I would be thrilled with 10-8 in conference, a win or two in the Big East tourney, and an NCAA birth with low expectations once we get there. That seems realistic.

[Dhall]

10-8 in the BE doesn't necessarily get us in the tourney, depending on how we get there. If we get there by beating Cincy twice, Seton Hall, Rutgers, USF, St. John's and Depaul and lose the rest, our tourney resume is going to be totally unimpressive. That's just reality.

[justabballfan]

I think that people are making too much of this game. It was a bad game. We need to rebound from it, pure and simple. The team has played bad. Jason Clark played his worst game I have seen in the last year (including high school & Kenner). He turned the ball over 5 times. He does not do that.

We have 5 win able games coming up. I think we have a very good chance of going 4-1 in those games, and even a chance to go 5-0. We will be favorite in every game except for Marquette on the road.

@seton Hall
@cinncy
@marq
vs. Rutgers
vs. Cinncy

If we go 4-1 in these games it will put us at 7-4 with 7 games to go.

[CAHoya07]

I mean, yeah, hopefully it was just a blip. Time will tell. But as justabballfan says, if we go 4-1 in the next 5 games, we'll still be in position to make a run for a good seed in the BET and NCAA.

First things first. Beat Seton Hall.

[Deleted]

Jan 23, 2009 11:31:35 GMT -5 Dhall said:

10-8 in the BE doesn't necessarily get us in the tourney, depending on how we get there. If we get there by beating Cincy twice, Seton Hall, Rutgers, USF, St. John's and Depaul and lose the rest, our tourney resume is going to be totally unimpressive. That's just reality.

Really? 10-8 in the best conference in the country with wins vs. UConn (on the road), Syracuse, Memphis...#1 SOS at the moment (that'll slide, but not to the point of being a liability). There are about 300 D-1 teams that would kill for a resume like that at the end of the year.

[Dhall]

Jan 23, 2009 11:43:15 GMT -5 @cam said:

Jan 23, 2009 11:31:35 GMT -5 Dhall said:

10-8 in the BE doesn't necessarily get us in the tourney, depending on how we get there. If we get there by beating Cincy twice, Seton Hall, Rutgers, USF, St. John's and Depaul and lose the rest, our tourney resume is going to be totally unimpressive. That's just reality.

Really? 10-8 in the best conference in the country with wins vs. UConn (on the road), Syracuse, Memphis...#1 SOS at the moment (that'll slide, but not to the point of being a liability). There are about 300 D-1 teams that would kill for a resume like that at the end of the year.

Yeah, really. SOS and what conference we are in are meaningless if we don't have enough wins against other tournament teams. UCONN could be a great win. Syracuse could be an excellent win. There are plenty of teams who have had 2 such wins on their resume and didn't make the tournament (Maryland and Cuse recently for example). You think going 2-10 against RPI top-50 teams, which is possible even with a 10-8 finish, would be impressive?

I certainly predict that we end up beating some of the better teams in the Big East the rest of the way and if that's the case, then 10-8 will be fine. But we can theoretically end up 10-8 and even miss out on the tournament to a team that went 8-10 in the Big East depending on who they beat to get there and their non-conference wins.

[Deleted]

2-10 vs. Top-50s certainly wouldn't help, but I'd stack that resume up against most everyone.

Either way, I predict that we won't be having this conversation at the end of the season. We'll be better than 10-8.

[Dhall]

Jan 23, 2009 12:05:58 GMT -5 @cam said:

2-10 vs. Top-50s certainly wouldn't help, but I'd stack that resume up against most everyone.

Either way, I predict that we won't be having this conversation at the end of the season. We'll be better than 10-8.

We can definitely agree on that. We'll take at least one from Marquette, and one or two of @nova, @ Cuse or @lville and that would make 10-8 very solid even if we lose another one or two to lesser teams. And if we finish middle of the pack in the BE, we'll have an opportunity for a first round BE tourney game against a quality opponent. This WVU loss really stings though, because they are a good team and sitting at 4-2 would have been a lot nicer given the rest of the schedule.

[vamosalaplaya]

10-8 in the Big East with wins over UConn and Syracuse and Maryland and Memphis gets Georgetown in the tournament.

Please.

[sleepy]

No, this was not just a blip, we really are a horrible team. We were extremely lucky to beat both Uconn and Syracuse, both on their worst games of the season, totoal coicidence I know. You guys are right, we will be extremely lucky to make the NCAA tournament.

Can you all get ahold of yourselves please? I mean, is this serious? The reason we shot well over our season average in those games was because we were running the offense correctly and getting shots we should always knock down. In other games, we have been getting good looks, but they aren't the same because we haven't had the same type of ball movement as we did in those games.
We shoot well when we play well, we don't play well because we shoot well. Thats a distinction many here have yet to make.
Could we overreact any more than we have?

[FrazierFanatic]

Why is it an overreaction? Losing to W Va is not like losing to Rutgers or USF, I never suggested we were a terrible team. But with only 2 strong games so far, and 4 or 5 duds, isn't it fair to ask whether we aren't in reality more like the team that struggled at home against Providence than the team that punked UConn on the road? And it is starting to seem that we DO only play well when we shoot well. If we miss some shots early, we start making silly turnovers, losing focus on D and on the boards, etc.

[SFHoya99]

Are people really assuming we're not going to beat another tournament team?

Why would that be the assumption? We've beaten three to date, at least.

[RDF]

It was more then a "blip". It's the fact this team doesn't take a hit/adversity well--and while expected due to youth--it's disturbing to see a Hoya team not fight/compete when things are tough. Everyone looks at the wins in past--but not HOW they learned to win. There will be those games you look "pretty" and cruise to victory--but then there are the games you have to fight, claw, and battle through stretches and when shots don't fall--you find other ways to win. When the Head Coach says "our defense was effected by inability to score"--what does that say that gives confidence? So if Hoyas can't hit shots-they are going to lose?

Time to toughen up and battle until last second because last night was like Pitt game--where team was out of sorts, frustrated, and packed it in when things didn't go their way.

Loss wasn't as bad as the performance. I don't think that was a blip and if the same group of guys continue to play as they are and nothing is changed--it will be the norm. Some people need to step up their play and realize BASKETBALL IS MORE THEN SCORING--you can win games in various ways and help your team in more ways then just scoring. FIND A WAY TO WIN and until this team does this--like the previous III teams--I am not sold they are assured of anything other then playing whomever is scheduled. Well I'll say showing up--because last night was NOT playing basketball from 3/4 of this team.

[sleepy]

Jan 23, 2009 12:46:01 GMT -5 FrazierFanatic said:

Why is it an overreaction? Losing to W Va is not like losing to Rutgers or USF, I never suggested we were a terrible team. But with only 2 strong games so far, and 4 or 5 duds, isn't it fair to ask whether we aren't in reality more like the team that struggled at home against Providence than the team that punked UConn on the road? And it is starting to seem that we DO only play well when we shoot well. If we miss some shots early, we start making silly turnovers, losing focus on D and on the boards, etc.

Its an overreaction because we have played more than 2 good games. We played extremely well against Maryland as well. We even played well against Duke, minus the last few minutes of the first half. We played well against Memphis minus the bad shooting. I also don't think we play well because we shoot well, but we shoot well only when we play well. The chicken and the egg theory in a way. People assume we only play well when we shoot well, but the good shooting could be attributed just as much to the playing well.

[Filo]

I am still optimistic, and I can't stand some of the "sky-is-falling" stuff that we see (not talking about this thread specifically), but I can see why some are a bit less optimistic.

Right now, the 'Cuse and UConn wins do seem like the outliers. When the team is not hitting on all cylinders, they have proven to be inconsistent, at best (pulled out Providence and Memphis; lost to Duke, Tenn, and ND; got blown out by Pitt and WVU).

But you know what, that's pretty much expected - win some, lose some. We are not THAT good, that we can expect to win them all when playing average to below-average ball against quality opponents. What separates this loss from the others is that this is the first one in which a W was truly expected and the team just failed to show up for much of the game. Write it off. Hope for a better performance on Saturday, and hope that the team does start consistently firing on all cylinders in March.

[NCHoya]

Basically this season will come down to whether the young guys can develop the mental toughness to stay in a game when things are not going well. If we develop that trait by March, good things will come, if not, we will be up and down the rest of the way.

I think we will get better at taking the negatives in stride and be a formidable team by March. My key assumption is that JT3 allows Sapp to become the unquestioned leader and gets our young guards to play more consistently, especially on defense when their shots are not falling.

To me, that is the key, we need a leader to keep guys focused in bad spots, I expect that from a senior. And that does not mean I care if Jesse shoots well or always makes the best pass, he just needs to be the steadying force. Jesse has been through the wars, he needs an opportunity to show it.

[Dhall]

Jan 23, 2009 13:25:19 GMT -5 NCHoya said:

Basically this season will come down to whether the young guys can develop the mental toughness to stay in a game when things are not going well. If we develop that trait by March, good things will come, if not, we will be up and down the rest of the way.

I think we will get better at taking the negatives in stride and be a formidable team by March. My key assumption is that JT3 allows Sapp to become the unquestioned leader and gets our young guards to play more consistently, especially on defense when their shots are not falling.

To me, that is the key, we need a leader to keep guys focused in bad spots, I expect that from a senior. And that does not mean I care if Jesse shoots well or always makes the best pass, he just needs to be the steadying force. Jesse has been through the wars, he needs an opportunity to show it.

Very true. If Coach continues to write off a three-year starter who has been through the wars in February and March like he did last night, then we are in trouble. I love Clark and Wright as young players, but Sapp is the steadying force and not those guys.

[FLHoya]

Not a blip...but not a trend either (hopefully)

I wrote after the Duke game...sorry the "Well, at least we know we can beat Duke on a neutral court" Game...sorry the "John Cahill" Game...

in any case, I wrote that I was troubled b/c the Duke game followed the exact same trajectory as the Notre Dame game, and I felt the team needed to learn how to break the pattern they had now fallen into twice.

Well...last night's game pretty closely followed the trajectory of the Pitt game. Closer than deserved halftime score, big problems getting defensive stops/defensive boards in the second half, utter inability to capture momentum dramatized by a three-four possession sequence in the second half when opportunities to take the lead were missed, and a final minutes meltdown when individuals were trying to make up 8-10 point deficits in a single possession.

What I'm not sure we appreciated about last year's team was just how many times they a) were able to make up modest deficits in the latter quarter of a game; b) pull out last-possession victories. Think of the games: UConn, Syracuse, at Marquette, Villanova, at WVU, Louisville. Pretty sure every game both A and B happened.

Seems to me the biggest difference between last year and this year thus far is simply experience. With that experience come familiarity with a variety of game situations and a calmness under pressure. We don't have that yet...our point guard is in his first full season, our best player is a freshman, and our most experienced players are in a major slump (Sapp) or don't yet possess the calming influence under pressure (Summers).

Unfortunately, in the four most recent losses we've had some big breakdowns in the second half--only the Tennessee loss really falls into the category for me of "absolutely nothing we could do". Might not have won all or any of the last four, but they shouldn't have been as bad as they were.

Team is going to learn from these situations hopefully and be better prepared to take get over the hump next time in a close game situation. Plenty of time yet to get there.

[sleepy]

Jan 23, 2009 14:23:04 GMT -5 FLHoya said:

Not a blip...but not a trend either (hopefully)

I wrote after the Duke game...sorry the "Well, at least we know we can beat Duke on a neutral court" Game...sorry the "John Cahill" Game...

in any case, I wrote that I was troubled b/c the Duke game followed the exact same trajectory as the Notre Dame game, and I felt the team needed to learn how to break the pattern they had now fallen into twice.

Well...last night's game pretty closely followed the trajectory of the Pitt game. Closer than deserved halftime score, big problems getting defensive stops/defensive boards in the second half, utter inability to capture momentum dramatized by a three-four possession sequence in the second half when opportunities to take the lead were missed, and a final minutes meltdown when individuals were trying to make up 8-10 point deficits in a single possession.

What I'm not sure we appreciated about last year's team was just how many times they a) were able to make up modest deficits in the latter quarter of a game; b) pull out last-possession victories. Think of the games: UConn, Syracuse, at Marquette, Villanova, at WVU, Louisville. Pretty sure every game both A and B happened.

Seems to me the biggest difference between last year and this year thus far is simply experience. With that experience come familiarity with a variety of game situations and a calmness under pressure. We don't have that yet...our point guard is in his first full season, our best player is a freshman, and our most experienced players are in a major slump (Sapp) or don't yet possess the calming influence under pressure (Summers).

Unfortunately, in the four most recent losses we've had some big breakdowns in the second half--only the Tennessee loss really falls into the category for me of "absolutely nothing we could do". Might not have won all or any of the last four, but they shouldn't have been as bad as they were.

Team is going to learn from these situations hopefully and be better prepared to take get over the hump next time in a close game situation. Plenty of time yet to get there.

I agree with your post 100%, that trend is annoying and frustrating, and the only way we are going to fix it is to keep facing it.