SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 23, 2008 12:30:29 GMT -5
If the #20 ranked team loses to the #1 ranked team on a last second shot at the #1 ranked team's home, you can see no argument where, despite losing, they are probably better than #20?
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Post by hoyalawyer on Dec 23, 2008 12:32:34 GMT -5
but not on that night
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Post by dajuan on Dec 23, 2008 12:55:05 GMT -5
Did Craig Esherick join the board with the handle "Hometown Hoya"?
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Post by HometownHoya on Dec 23, 2008 14:01:43 GMT -5
Did Craig Esherick join the board with the handle "Hometown Hoya"? Now that just hurts. I also agree that if the #20 team plays the #1 team very close at the #1's home that they are better then #20. Looking back at what started this discussion is that I was baffled at how Gonzaga moved UP after losing to UConn. I understand that a bunch of the teams around them lost as well but this was a #8 losing to the #1, not #20 to #1. Another example of what I am talking about is Xavier dropping 5 spots after losing to Duke! I realize that Duke is overrated but you shouldn't drop 5 spots after losing to the #5 (or w/e) team. (especially if you were also in the Top10 at the time). But as theexorcist pointed out, polls aren't perfect. (in fact they are downright frustrating)
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 23, 2008 22:00:02 GMT -5
Oh those wacky Zags losing 3 of their last 4. This one was to Portland State however. Probably this will finally knock them out of the top ten, but you never can tell.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Dec 23, 2008 22:23:51 GMT -5
I watched that game. Portland State is the real thing, the kind of team nobody wants to see in the first round. That being said, it's still an awful loss and this should get them out of the top 15
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 23, 2008 22:54:59 GMT -5
you should never drop for losing a close game to a team ranked higher than you are. In theory you were not supposed to win that game, so how can you be punished. Now you can be punished if you get your ass kicked like Xavier did. They fell because they didn't look like they belonged out there. With gonzaga. They barely lost to a team that was supposed to beat them. So they should not have dropped. They rose because they did nothing to warrant losing and the teams ahead of them did warrant dropping. It was more punishing those who didn't perform well while rewarding Gonzaga for at least playing a good game.
not that it will matter after this lost to portland state. If texas loses tonight too we'll be up to 7 for our game agaisnt Uconn.
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idhoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by idhoya on Dec 23, 2008 22:58:30 GMT -5
too high. 13 is about right.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Dec 24, 2008 2:03:03 GMT -5
the issue that you guys havent touched on is that the nature of the polls is flawed. what i mean is that it is not clear if the polls are measuring teams based on talent (and therefore potential) or on performance. The teams start of the year based on percieved talent but are then moved about based on performance.
if you go only by performance then it is pointless to have a preseason poll and that everyone should just be ranked based on their wins and losses. There would an immense amount of Ties and, even this far into the season, stanford, Ill. St. and Minn. would all be tied with UNC as #1 (along with 6 other teams) because they havent lost yet (or Clemson, OU, and Pitt would all be tied because they all have the most wins with out a loss). This system is clearly wrong and is the reason that the RPI factors in your opponents records and their opponents opponents.
the other problem it creates is that by ranking teams preseason based on potential talent and then changing and going by performance you change the standard by which you are measuring teams. It would be like teaching someone how to speak english and then testing them in french. Also, if performance (pure wins and losses) is what primarily matters, then the idea of "who you've beaten" has no merit. Memphis running through a lame CUSA has the same value as or more than UNC ending with only one or two losses in the ACC.
What you need to do is look at the potential talent of every team preseason, then each week analyze how each teams results matches that analysis and then change expectation based on results and re-rank all the teams regardless of their previous ranking. Based on a full analysis of talent and performance a #20 losing to #1 by 1 point clearly shows that the perception of the #20's talent was too low or that the perception of the #1's talent was too high, either way they should move closer together after that game. The #1 may remain #1 because they are still clearly better than everyone else and the #20 could even remain #20 because they are clearly not better than 19 other teams, but the distance (or parity) between the two teams may shrink (this is another fault of the polls-they dont give an accurate relative distance between the teams)
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FLHoya
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Proud Member of Generation Burton
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Post by FLHoya on Dec 24, 2008 11:58:35 GMT -5
What you need to do is look at the potential talent of every team preseason, then each week analyze how each teams results matches that analysis and then change expectation based on results and re-rank all the teams regardless of their previous ranking. Based on a full analysis of talent and performance a #20 losing to #1 by 1 point clearly shows that the perception of the #20's talent was too low or that the perception of the #1's talent was too high, either way they should move closer together after that game. The #1 may remain #1 because they are still clearly better than everyone else and the #20 could even remain #20 because they are clearly not better than 19 other teams, but the distance (or parity) between the two teams may shrink (this is another fault of the polls-they dont give an accurate relative distance between the teams) Or...failing this...you could design some sort of 65 team post-season tournament to decide the best team in a given year. Big picture--the two human polls in college basketball are good for two things: 1. Generating discussion and debate 2. Adding credibility or hype to a future matchup. On both counts, they are wildly successful. I reminded myself to watch UConn and Gonzaga because of the very "high" numbers next to their names...I would be slightly less likely to watch a UConn-Gonzaga game next week after the Zags tumble further in the polls. Rankings also provide a neat, clean way of contextualizing how difficult our next three games will be--although we're ultimately worried not about how to defeat the "number 2" or "number 8" teams, but rather how to handle UConn's athleticism and the proper way to defend Luke Harangody. Fortunately, when Selection Sunday comes around, your AP or ESPN ranking means nada. A team's seeding is a combination of several factors--the NCAA's tweaked version of the RPI, record in last ten games, quality wins, bad losses, and so on. The Selection Committee looks at teams at a far greater level of detail than pollsters/coaches (okay, SIDs). Of course, don't get me started on doing Bracketology projections before late February...
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Dec 25, 2008 1:27:52 GMT -5
Beginning with the UConn game Georgetown plays five out of its next six games against Top 15 teams, including three on the road. I wonder if any team has ever done that before. The only comparable stretch I've spotted so far is the last 5 regular season games for Marquette: 2/21 at Georgetown (9) 2/25 vs. Connecticut (2) 3/1 at Louisville (19) 3/4 at Pittsburgh (3) 3/7 vs. Syracuse (14) which, depending on seeding, could be followed by another game against a ranked team in their first BET game. Brutal. I randomly stumbled upon a team tonight whose next five beats ours without question...I can't imagine there's been in recent NCAA history another example of playing the Top 3 ranked teams in three consecutive regular season games. Now here's the bad news: It's Rutgers. Sun, Dec 28 at (1) North Carolina Wed, Dec 31 (3) Pittsburgh Sat, Jan 3 at (2) Connecticut Wed, Jan 7 Marquette Sat, Jan 10 (17) Syracuse Three of their games are identical to ours. Marquette > Providence and at UNC > at ND (despite ND's home winning streak). Ouch.
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Dec 25, 2008 6:26:48 GMT -5
friendly reminder the ONLY poll that counts is the one after the final four when itll be CLEAR whos the best go hoyas win one by one at least by one have some fun and show them BEAT UCONN PLEASE ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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