Taking stock, looking forward.

[aussiehoya]

ok. half of our conference schedule is done. We're 5-3 and I think we can all agree that this is pretty damn impressive for the talent we have.

We have 8 games left. I think we go 4-4.

Wins:
2/2 Seton Hall
2/5 @ Rutgers
2/12 WV
2/20 @ St. Johns

My reasoning for the wins: Seton Hall is not the same team w/out Barrett. Rutgers is literally falling apart at the seams with this whole "bragging rights" thing. WV is overrated and St. Johns simply doesn't have what it takes to beat a well-coached, mentally tough team (although I know some of you are questioning this after the BC game).

Losses:
2/16 @ Notre Dame
2/27 Villanova
3/2 @ Connecticut
3/5 Providence

My reasoning for the losses: ND & Nova are really coming on as the season progresses, both are gaining momentum and should be REALLY angry about their last-minute losses to us. Connecticut just overpowers us inside. Providence to me is more of a toss-up, but in recent years, skilled big-men have EATEN us for breakfast...

Summary:
That leaves us @ 9-7 in the Big East, once again still very impressive considering where we all expected to finish. Do any of you remember how you felt after the Temple game? I was thinking - "its gonna be a looooong year". 9-7 is bubble I think and we'd have to win 2 in the Big East tourney to be a lock to dance...

Random observations:
Someone posted that Wallace has looked shell-shocked in recent weeks. I'm not happy about it, but I've got to agree. Earlier in the season, he was pulling the trigger with confidence on his shot whenever he had open looks. But something seems to have changed - he's hesitating more and is disappearing in the box score. I for one am a little worried, but like the rest of you, very encouraged by the quality minutes from Crawford on saturday. My question is: what do you do about the Wallace quandry? I say that he is the best pure shooter on the team, and we run a few plays for him early in the game against the Hall to get him involved. Once he sees his shot falling, he should get back into a rhythm.

[Grandpa]

aussiehoya said:

I say that he is the best pure shooter on the team, and we run a few plays for him early in the game against the Hall to get him involved. Once he sees his shot falling, he should get back into a rhythm.

Generally agree with your post aussie and, in particular agree, with your thoughts regarding what we need to do to try to get Wallace back in the flow. As we've seen, we don't necessarily need him to get 15 a game to have him be a productive part of our lineup; 6-7 points a game plus his steadying influence makes a considerable difference for the team as it gives the defense another player to consider.

[lichoya68]

I usually do not follow such things . but on this ams bigeast rpi i see we rank 34 and thats fifth in the league not bad but must keep winning to keep it up fourth place and fifth in rpi.. go hoyas need to be six and three not five and four big difference in the potential standings dont wanna play the prelim round in the tourney .....go hoyas sink the pirates lets make some NOISE

[OldHoyafan]

I think your assessment is well thoughtout and I hope an accurate one. A 9-7 BE record this year would be more than I think many, if not most, of us would have predicted at the beginning of the year. Of those you have as probable wins, the away games to Rutgers and St John's trouble me the most. Each plays a wide open somewhat unstructured offense that rides the streak shooting of their guards. Playing at home before cheering crowds, either could go off and have the Hoyas in a deep hole before half.

[TBird41]

I'm not sure I agree with you aussie, about the Providence game being a loss. For one, it's at home, and secondly, the team (from what my brother, a student at PC is telling me) has basically quit on the season. Gomes was benched at the last game and isn't the same player as he was last year. The team is in disarray and likely to continue to fall apart.
I agree w/ OldHoyafan about the troubling nature of beating Rutgers and SJ away. 4-4 wouldn't surprise me to finish the season, though I think we'll beat PC (and then probably lose to SJ or Rutgers away). It also wouldn't surprise me if they finished 5-3.

[Cambridge]

Can't see us losing to Prov either. Especially not in a last game situation. Those guys are dragging heels right now...and I can't imagine them picking it up.

[hoyadrummer]

aussiehoya said:

9-7 is bubble I think and we'd have to win 2 in the Big East tourney to be a lock to dance...

9-7 in the BE, 17-10 overall puts us on the bubble. But two wins in the BE tourney would not make us a "lock," we'd need to win the BE tourney to be a "lock." Especially, as you project us fading in late February, losing our last three conference games, and four of our last five, and losing to the teams we are fighting with for spots, ND and Nova.

We likely wouldn't have a bye under this scenario, so we would play a low end team in the first round, even if we won that and then beat someone like Cuse in the second round, we'd be 19-10, and a 19 win team who split its schedule with ND and Nova is not anywhere close to a lock.

We become a "lock" by
1) Winning 21 games including games in the BE tourney
2) Winning 20 games, including games in the BE tourney, and winning 2 of 3 out of Nova, ND and UConn in the regualr season
3) Winning 20 games and getting the BE tourney finals