HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Dec 9, 2008 9:58:26 GMT -5
Pomeroy's new rankings have us as the #2 team in the country which is what happens when the computer tries to reconcile us beating by 62 with the same team that took Michigan to overtime. Why do I feel that we are marginally overated by this ranking? kenpom.com/rate.php
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Post by Hoya TMF on Dec 9, 2008 10:12:37 GMT -5
indeed. it's hard to take a poll seriously when it ranks us and louisville in the top five. we lost to tennessee (10 in the pomeroy) and louisville lost to an even worse team. we'll see if the pomeroy ratings are more telling later on this year.
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PopeJohn2
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Ultimate bailout is yet to come and unavoidable. Uncle Sam gonna pay your debt for you!
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Post by PopeJohn2 on Dec 9, 2008 10:12:56 GMT -5
the fact that we are 25% thru the season i think this is a statistically significant result so im gonna go with it.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Dec 9, 2008 10:24:37 GMT -5
posted this on the AP/Coaches thread, but it's more appropriate here: Pomeroy has us at #2 this morning----that's the highest I've ever seen us (anyone ever seen us at #1?). AdjO #2, AdjD #8. He also has us at #2 in eFG% and #3 in DeFG%, and #1 in 2pt effective FG% (at 66.3%). Problem areas: Turnover% (#220) Offensive rebounding (#167) Opp. Offensive rebounding (#249) and....the dreaded Opp FT%! (#317) I mean really guys, you have to step up that FT defense.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Dec 9, 2008 10:42:13 GMT -5
indeed. it's hard to take a poll seriously when it ranks us and louisville in the top five. we lost to tennessee (10 in the pomeroy) and louisville lost to an even worse team. we'll see if the pomeroy ratings are more telling later on this year. Um, it's not a poll. It's a computer ranking of the teams (hence the title of the thread). Are we the second best team in the country? No. However, I do like the fact that we're at #2 after having played a lot of the lower ranked teams on our schedule AND still to face Memphis and Duke (plus the Big East, obviously).
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CaliHoya
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Post by CaliHoya on Dec 9, 2008 10:45:13 GMT -5
When did Pomeroy decide to drop its game predictions? That was my favorite part of the site.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Dec 9, 2008 10:58:52 GMT -5
When did Pomeroy decide to drop its game predictions? That was my favorite part of the site. That may come back in the future. Also missing at this point in the season is an analysis of individual players, which he said will be added in the coming weeks.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 9, 2008 11:09:59 GMT -5
A lot of the individual player stats are done by CO Hoya on Hoya Prospectus -- but obviously, there's no ranking.
Anytime you take a team's ranking after their best game of the year, they are going to be somewhat overrated. That said, we lost on a neutral court to a very good team. And in the rest of the games we've either won comfortably or dominated. There aren't a lot of teams that can say that, even if they don't have a loss yet. Most of the undefeated teams haven't beaten anyone yet.
However, the stats are never really in whack during the cupcake portion of the schedule. Too much game to game inconsistency in an opponents' quality and effort level.
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Post by DoubleOhHoya on Dec 9, 2008 11:11:04 GMT -5
Predictions will come back once he deems data sufficient for the predictions to be meaningful. Last year I thought it was about ten games.
This is the first year I can remember starting off with good computer numbers. Encouraging to think how much better we could be.
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saxamaphone
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Yes III Can.
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Post by saxamaphone on Dec 9, 2008 12:27:13 GMT -5
Interesting that Carolina's SOS isn't much better than ours as well (35th for UNC, 56th for us), given that they've already played four BCS conference opponents - Kentucky, Oregon, ND, and Michigan State.
Still early for Pomeroy rankings, though.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Dec 9, 2008 12:42:56 GMT -5
We are really good, though. I think our starting five is already better than last year's Big East regular season champs. That just may be good enough for Best of the Rest (behind Carolina).
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 9, 2008 12:44:31 GMT -5
We'll find out Saturday. The team has blown out teams it should blow out, more or less. The Tennessee loss was early, and frankly, we had a real good shot to win against a very good team.
On the other hand, the best team we've beaten was probably Wichita State.
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bubbrubbhoya
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Post by bubbrubbhoya on Dec 9, 2008 13:20:54 GMT -5
We are really good, though. I think our starting five is already better than last year's Big East regular season champs. That just may be good enough for Best of the Rest (behind Carolina). Despite last night's production, the bench still has miles to go. Our starting five is indeed dynamite, but depth will be the issue all year. I'd love to be proven wrong, but once we get into the teeth of the BEast, we'll be fighting for every win despite having a superior starting five in most cases.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Dec 9, 2008 13:47:47 GMT -5
The difference between gtown and UNC is marginal. It would be really interesting to see what the list would be like if gtown had beat tenn (but that also means a game against gonzaga and not umd, which was a good efficient game). It is possible that with solid wins over gonzaga and tenn, gtown would be #1.
I expect this to fall off as other teams get their efficiency up, but the game last night is why these rankings are useful. gtown scored 100, but not by playing like UNC and running constantly, it was because of offensive efficiency.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Dec 9, 2008 14:28:51 GMT -5
To put the accuracy of computer rankings at this point into perspective: Florida is #30 or so in the Sagarin -- a good dozen or so spots above FSU. FSU is 7-1 while Florida is 6-2. And one more thing: FSU beat Florida just 2 days ago. I don't think those power rankings have their game face on yet.
On Edit: And oh yeah, FSU's SOS is significantly higher(stronger) than ours in that same ranking.
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Post by bbb71 on Dec 9, 2008 14:41:48 GMT -5
I don't think georgetown will be fighting for every win in the big east. Aside from the real elite teams, I think we will continue to blow most teams out. Our team is that good. You don't kick the living crap out of three consecutive division one teams inside of 8 minutes unless your team is special. I mean, the last two first halfs have been 97- 27. I don't care that its been against American or Savannah St.
Although the big east is great, it's time people realize that georgetown might be the best team in the conference. As I've said before, when you have four big east first team caliber players (including one who might be the most talented player in the country...the recognition will come soon enough), the team is going to be special. Sure we will have to battle against UConn, Louisville, and Pitt because of their size...but I look forward to beating them and dominating everyone else.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Dec 9, 2008 15:00:53 GMT -5
I don't think georgetown will be fighting for every win in the big east. Aside from the real elite teams, I think we will continue to blow most teams out. Our team is that good. You don't kick the living crap out of three consecutive division one teams inside of 8 minutes unless your team is special. I mean, the last two first halfs have been 97- 27. I don't care that its been against American or Savannah St. Although the big east is great, it's time people realize that georgetown might be the best team in the conference. As I've said before, when you have four big east first team caliber players (including one who might be the most talented player in the country...the recognition will come soon enough), the team is going to be special. Sure we will have to battle against UConn, Louisville, and Pitt because of their size...but I look forward to beating them and dominating everyone else. I think the difference between a good/solid year and a great/special year will probably be winning some of the real toughies on the road. Losing to the other really good teams on the road and winning at home is step #1, but the real separation between the men and the boys is when one great team goes on the road and beats another at their place. I think the Hoyas definitely have that type of potential.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 9, 2008 17:12:39 GMT -5
The difference will be how well the bench develops, rebounds and turnovers. Everything else is FF material.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Dec 9, 2008 17:45:32 GMT -5
To put the accuracy of computer rankings at this point into perspective: Florida is #30 or so in the Sagarin -- a good dozen or so spots above FSU. FSU is 7-1 while Florida is 6-2. And one more thing: FSU beat Florida just 2 days ago. I don't think those power rankings have their game face on yet. On Edit: And oh yeah, FSU's SOS is significantly higher(stronger) than ours in that same ranking. That true, but they are getting more accurate every day. By Jan. 1 they will give a good picture where everybody is
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Dec 10, 2008 0:39:02 GMT -5
Pomeroy's new rankings have us as the #2 team in the country which is what happens when the computer tries to reconcile us beating by 62 with the same team that took Michigan to overtime. Why do I feel that we are marginally overated by this ranking? kenpom.com/rate.phpHeck, even JT3 liked THAT performance!
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