Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by Bando on Sept 8, 2008 11:29:50 GMT -5
B&G board is a little dead today, so let's start a new topic: who lives in a swing state this year, and if it's a new swing state, how is your experience differing from years past?
Real Clear Politics lists the following as toss-up states right now:
Kerry states: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania Bush states: Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
I'm a DC voter, so obviously the only question here is whether Obama will win just 90% of the vote, or even more. However, I'm seeing a lot of presidential advertising, as I'm in the same media market as northern Virginia.
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Sept 8, 2008 11:37:44 GMT -5
I live in Utah. Is that a swing state?
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Sept 8, 2008 12:06:56 GMT -5
Everyone knows where I am. Surprisingly, the numbers have McCain doing very well here in Florida; I am just somewhat obscured to that fact as I live in one of the liberal parts of the state, here at the University of Florida.
On a related note, for those of you from other swing states, what is your prediction? Admittedly, I don't study the issue, state-by-state. But off the top of my head, I think McCain picks up Michigan. I think Florida, Nevada and New Mexico are fairly safe to stay in the red column. I would like to think that North Carolina wouldn't be a problem, but I hear they have really focused on registering new voters there. Of course they were hoping that John Edwards would help, although now that is somewhat doubtful. I would probably think that Pennsylvania and Indiana are leans to Obama. Ohio is really the tough one. The weight of Cleveland and Cincinnati will probably be too much to overcome and I see Ohio going the wrong way -- for Obama.
Anyone from Colorado or New Hampshire that can give us some insight to those states at present?
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by Boz on Sept 8, 2008 12:11:08 GMT -5
I live in Utah. Is that a swing state? Sooooooo many possibilities here..... Just kidding, kc. As for me, I am in the swing part of Virginia, that is, northern Virginia. Or as Virginians like to call it, "DC." I see a lot of TV advertising and support for both candidates here. It's not all that different from 2004 though, IMO. I'm not a big believer in the "downticket factor," but if there is any truth to those theories, I wonder if Obama's chances in Virginia would be damaged - or helped - somewhat by the fact that Gilmore isn't even putting up a fight against Warner. Warner's going to win this Senate seat by 20 points minimum, unless something monumental happens. Regardless of that factor, which is all probably just a load of jibber-jabber anyway, I still think McCain holds on in VA, but we'll see. It's still basically tied here. (Just please let someone win it outright. We've got enough lawyers around here. We don't need 50,000 more of them parachuting in on Nov. 5.) Side note: I like the phrase "jibber-jabber." ;D
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hoyatables
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by hoyatables on Sept 8, 2008 12:12:44 GMT -5
Virginian here (now with property). I think it is going to stay Red. McCain is moderate enough to appeal to many northern Virginians who might have otherwise swayed, and Palin is conservative enough to energize the party base in the rest of the state. Lot of military peeps too in DC and Newport News, and I've got to think many of them swing to McCain.
Still, it should be an exciting race to watch here and know that my vote actually will count. I'm sure most people who read this are probably already aware, but the state has had a couple of Dem governors lately, and its Senate representation has been split, so Dems clearly can win the state, but they are Virginia Democrats, who are kinda like New York Republicans.
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nodak89
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by nodak89 on Sept 8, 2008 12:18:16 GMT -5
I've never had my vote "count" for president.
I've voted in KS, SD, and ND and the candidate I've voted for has never won the state. Zero electoral votes in my lifetime cast from my state for my candidate of choice. And it's never been close.
Not likely this year either. Probably not likely in my lifetime--unless I move east across the Red River of the North.
Back on topic, Minnesota isn't a swing state? Whew. Plenty of hockey moms there. Pawlenty may have put the state in play.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Sept 8, 2008 22:32:17 GMT -5
I've never had my vote "count" for president. I've voted in KS, SD, and ND and the candidate I've voted for has never won the state. Zero electoral votes in my lifetime cast from my state for my candidate of choice. And it's never been close. Not likely this year either. Probably not likely in my lifetime--unless I move east across the Red River of the North. Back on topic, Minnesota isn't a swing state? Whew. Plenty of hockey moms there. Pawlenty may have put the state in play. I don't know about the Minnesota question, but as to your "effectiveness," it sounds to me like you have a serious issue with picking the proper candidate. Hint: try an occasional candidate with an "(R)" next to his or her name. Note: I didn't say always ... just an occasional one. It sounds to me like you have methodically gone down the (wrong) party line. Regardless, sticking to a party line is a loser, either way.
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