Big East Finish this Year

[sleepy]

How do you see the final standings of the Big East looking now that ( i think) all the early departures are settled? I have seen many people predict the top 9 and not have us in it, so I was wondering how everyone here think the Big East will end up.

[blueandgray]

9 is crazy talk.... i see us no less then 5... possibly behind Louisville, UCON, Pitt, and the Cuse.

[Boz]

Many? Where?

I have seen quite a few predictions, but not any that have Georgetown out of the top 9 (granted, I have not seen any since the announced departures).

But you could be referring to the collective wisdom of everyone hanging out at Tailgators in Syracuse, in which case, I will forgive them their ignorance...they can't really help it.

[SFHoya99]

The media isn't putting us out of the Top 5. Some other fanbases -- maybe most -- have us about ninth.

[RBHoya]

The best 4 teams are more or less a lock in my mind: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame. I think that's the order it'll finish too, but there's room for disagreement there.

The second tier is teams 5-9, and that includes Georgetown, Cuse, Nova, West Virginia, and Marquette, IMO. Arguably somebody could surprise and jump into this group. All of these teams are very close on talent, there is no way anybody can definitively say how this will shake out, there are too many variables. Even the most knowledgeable Georgetown fans can't really say how good this team will be, because we've only ever really seen 4 of the players. If Monroe and Sims come in and play great, we'll have a nice season. If they struggle, we could struggle too. As of right now, the only thing I can be confident in saying is that we'll end up somewhere between 5 and 9.

BUT... if I were to take a wild guess right now, I'd go:

1. Pitt
2. UConn
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Marquette
6. Syracuse
7. Villanova
8. Georgetown
9. West Virginia
10. Providence
11. Cincinatti
12. Rutgers
13. USF
14. Depaul
15. Seton Hall
16. St. Johns

But totally subject to change.

[chep3]

Is MU going to be that good this year? I know they have their 3 guards back, but they lose their only big man of any repute in Barro. I also don't think WVU will be great, although f Alexander had come back I'd have thought they'd be top 3. We will be better than Nova next year. I say 7.

[vcjack]

I think Alexander is as good as gone by this point, I'd give us a big edge over them.

Marquette might have the most cohesive talent in the league but who knows if Buzz can coach?

I've said it before but the 08-09 Cards will look a lot like the 07-08 Hoyas, scary good on defense but inconsistent on offense and prone to scoring droughts. Will it be enough to get them the conference title? Maybe

Cuse may end up being very underrated but there is just something wrong with the chemistry of that team, they just play dumb basketball. And I don't think their demons are going to leave with Greene.

ND I don't see improving but they were pretty good last season, well at least in South Bend (where we presumably will go after a 2 year absence)

UConn, could be a top 5 team but they have chemistry issues too and they peaked really early last season which is clouding people's judgement on how they will be next season.

Pitt is scary, at least for the regular season. Hope we get them at home

SJU - garbage
Depaul - garbage
shu - garbage
usf - garbage

rutgers, providence and cincy have the right pieces but they chose the wrong year to try and seriously compete.

And for us, let me see us play a game before I can make an opinion.

[SFHoya99]

Jun 3, 2008 17:05:49 GMT -5 RBHoya said:

1. Pitt
2. UConn

No arguments here. Pitt and UConn are the likely class of the league. I view the loss of Ramon as something akin to losing Ashanti Cook -- the gain of a year for Blair more than outweighs it.

3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Marquette
6. Syracuse
7. Villanova
8. Georgetown
9. West Virginia

Comparing us to the above...

Louisville - Padgett was their hub and Samardo Samuels won't be able to fully play that role. I can't believe Jennings will qualify but that could make a huge difference. I like Clark but at the 1,2,3 spots I don't think they are better than us. In fact, I'm pretty sure they are not. So is the big difference Earl Clark?

Notre Dame - Should this team scare me? They don't. I know we don't have Hibbert to dominate Chunk anymore, but still... A rational view of last year's record plus only losing Kurz places them easily ahead of us. But when I match up the teams... I take our player at every other spot except when MacAlarney is hot.

Marquette - Part of me is ultimately tempted to move them up. James has sort of learned his role, McNeal and Matthews have become very complete, Hayward is a budding star and Mbakwe should give them some beef down low.

Now someone tell me why this team never seems to win the big games?

Georgetown wins because of Jessie Sapp's balls.

Syracuse - Too many variables right now. Two major rumors are Paul Harris to Europe and Cheddar Bob to grades. If they both come back, I have to move them up -- and probably above us. Onuaku/Harris/Jackson will push around Sims and Monroe, and Cheddar Bob was learning shot selection before going down. Their depth is weak, but that doesn't hurt them as much against us, and frankly, Donte Green won't shoot them out of any more games.

Provided they have a full complement, I think I move them to third on talent and fifth, because, well, like Marquette, they just aren't as good as they should be.

Villanova - Ahead of us? Really? I'll take our backcourt over theirs AND though I like Dante Cunningham, I'll take our frontcourt. Playing Summers at PF isn't going to hurt us when their PF is Shane Clark.

West Virginia - Loses their best player and their starting PG. Replaces the latter with a decent recruit and the former with a freshman. Still no big man. I agree we should be better. Like Butler and Ruoff but the rest of the team doesn't impress me that much so it's up to Ebanks and Bryant. We'll see. Huggins can coach, though -- no comments like the Marquette or Syracuse one here.

Maybe by looking at it on a purely game by game basis and not over a season, I'm missing something (namely our lack of depth). But I peg us more like 4-6, not in the 8/9 range.

[SFHoya99]

I do think vcjack is oversimplifying the bottom.

Seton Hall -- Good guards, nothing down low. It won't be as easy as the past, but still, who do they put on Summers or Monroe?

St. John's -- Agree. Awful.

DePaul -- Can two good players compete in the BE? I like Koshwal and Tucker is a stud. Maybe Jeremiah Kelly turns out not so bad. I can barely name anyone else on their team. Last few years they've been erratic, but we're not a team that allows those crazy jump shooting games often.

USF - See Seton Hall. Dominique Jones and Mike Mercer and Jesus Verdejo are an awesome group of SG. Problem is, there's four other positions. Could see them shooting their way to a few more wins.

Upshot is, I think we may be down to 2 awful teams this year, and DePaul may even win a few non-conference games.

[The Stig]

I'd put us anywhere in that 5-8 group. I think things would have to go pretty badly wrong for us to drop out of the top 8.

[prhoya]

Isn't June 16th the last day to get out of the draft?

[SFHoya99]

Alexander is doing well in Orlando and the combines -- he's gone.

Donte Greene has signed with an agent -- he's gone.

I don't know of any other BE players that were even remotely on the fence.

[vcjack]

Jun 3, 2008 18:57:35 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I do think vcjack is oversimplifying the bottom.

Seton Hall -- Good guards, nothing down low. It won't be as easy as the past, but still, who do they put on Summers or Monroe?

St. John's -- Agree. Awful.

DePaul -- Can two good players compete in the BE? I like Koshwal and Tucker is a stud. Maybe Jeremiah Kelly turns out not so bad. I can barely name anyone else on their team. Last few years they've been erratic, but we're not a team that allows those crazy jump shooting games often.

USF - See Seton Hall. Dominique Jones and Mike Mercer and Jesus Verdejo are an awesome group of SG. Problem is, there's four other positions. Could see them shooting their way to a few more wins.

Upshot is, I think we may be down to 2 awful teams this year, and DePaul may even win a few non-conference games.

Ok I'll give you that I may have discounted USF who seem like they could get better even without Gransberry. But I really don't think I Oversimplified the Hall or DePaul.

Koshwal is good and Tucker is nice but it does not matter one bit. In 06/07 they had two better players in Sammy Mejia and Wilson Chandler. Both players were drafted that year but Wainright's terrible coaching did them in and they didn't do anything more than the NIT. No team should have TWO players drafted in one year and miss the NCAA's. This DePaul team will do nothing like the previous ones did (in fact they already lost one of their recruits)

As for SHU, they lost Brian Laing and they have a coach who hits his assistaints and wears bowling shirts to gameday. And they still suck in the frontcourt.

[GIGAFAN99]

I agree with everything SF says.

ND plays no defense and Harangody is still 6'7.

Here's your ND-Georgetown question.

Can you name one ND starter you would trade straight up for the Hoya starter at the same position? Wright for McAlarney? If you want that trade, go ahead. Monroe for Harangody? Ditto.

The bottom line is talent. And the Hoyas have more than most.

Prediction: 3rd. Pitt surprises the board and isn't all that scary. Why? They can't shoot. Losing Ronald Ramon is not like losing Ashanti Cook but more like losing Jon Wallace...without a host of three-point threats to replace him.

UConn and Louisville battle it out for #1.

[SFHoya99]

At the end of the day, I think people predicting us ninth are focusing too much on what we lost and not what we'll have for next year. What we've lost is irrelevant, except in the sense that it might take a bit to learn to play together.

What we have is an incredible collection of talent. We're a bit inexperienced and very thin. If we weren't, I'd have us right at the top, because the players who are here can play with anyone.

[FLHoya]

Jun 3, 2008 19:32:17 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

At the end of the day, I think people predicting us ninth are focusing too much on what we lost and not what we'll have for next year. What we've lost is irrelevant, except in the sense that it might take a bit to learn to play together.

And that's the great unknown obviously. Given that however, I'm actually a fan of playing lots of challenging games--we'll know SOMETHING about how the team is progressing after three good games in Orlando, the Memphis game, and the trip to Cameron (assuming that isn't wedged into mid-January or February during conference season).

One interesting factor I noticed in thinking about our two recent BE Regular Season title seasons...in neither season did we lose to a team that was lower than the 8-9 game in the BE Tournament at season's end (correct me if I'm wrong but that'd also mean we didn't lose to a team w/ a losing conference record). Made a difference in both years when we clinched in the final game.

Last year just as a reference...Louisville lost to Seton Hall, UConn lost to Providence twice, WVU lost 62-39 at home to Cincinnati, and Pitt lost to Cincy and Rutgers. MU and ND lost to all top tier teams.

So when I consider what our BE finish will be next year, the dreaded throw-away line "we'll prob lose one we shouldn't" comes into play. Or........does it?

What exactly is the likelihood next year's team will drop a game or more to a 10-16 seed type opponent? Youth and lack of depth play a role here, but so should the likelihood of their having been tested in important games before the BE season.

Another factor--who we play at home vs. on the road. I think we're at the point now where the Verizon Center does offer a legitimate home court advantage and that could be key in the other side of the above equation--how many of those Top 4 locks RB identifies that we can pick off.

For me, right now, the number is between 3 and 6.

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

1. UConn
2. Pitt
3. Louisville
4. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
6. Georgetown
7. Syracuse
8. Marquette
9. Villanova
10. Cincinnati
11. Seton Hall
12. Rutgers
13. Providence
14. USF
15. DePaul
17. St. Johns

[jgalt]

Jun 3, 2008 19:32:17 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

At the end of the day, I think people predicting us ninth are focusing too much on what we lost and not what we'll have for next year. What we've lost is irrelevant, except in the sense that it might take a bit to learn to play together.

What we have is an incredible collection of talent. We're a bit inexperienced and very thin. If we weren't, I'd have us right at the top, because the players who are here can play with anyone.

i totally agree. It also feels like the program lost "everything" because those four guys (plus jeff) meant so much to the program. I dont know where gtown will be at the end of the year in the BE, but it could be anywhere from 1 to 16. either way ill be at every game screaming my ass off.

[Eurostar]

They can rank us as low as possible - 8-10 would be perfect. We've always been better with low expectations. We've got 5 guys that could legitimately make one of the all big east teams by seasons end.

[FromTheBeginning]

If Jesse plays like a senior and embraces his leadership role -
If Austin has just normal year to year improvement on the court and especially in conditioning -
If Chris can play a full year -
If Dujaun shows up to play every game -
If Greg plays like a one-and-done -
If Jason can supply 15-20 solid minutes a game -
If Henry can do the same -
Lots of "ifs" but "if" most pan out, we might be selling this team way short with the 5 to 9 scenario.