hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Aug 6, 2008 16:40:51 GMT -5
Not that either of you are too likely to care about what I think, but I will sit squarely on the fence on this one. I think that in some cases, too many managers seem to be worried about stats. There are times when managers won't use their "closer" in a tie game ... and I'm not talking about the road team going into extra innings. At least in that situation you could make the case that at some point if we are going to win this game, we will have to shut them down after we have a lead. I'm talking about certain managers in extra inning home games. There can be no save in an extra inning game for the home team. Yet some managers are reluctant to throw their closers out there with the score tied in the 9th or later. Hell, if he's that good to hold a lead by getting three outs, he should be good enough to get three outs for us so that we can win it for him (or someone else) later. Also, and I remember this when Gagne was pitching in Colorado. They had a 4 run lead on the Rockies going to the bottom of the ninth. The way I see it, you send Gagne out there to close the deal. Sure, he doesn't get credit for a "save," but since the game was something like 14-10 at the time, I think winning the game should take precedent over padding stats. As it worked out, the Rockies got a HBP and then a homer on two pitches. Now it was a two run lead. They then brought in Gagne and he did get the save, but only after some very stomach turning moments. I think he gave up another run and had at least two men on, if not the bases loaded. In any case, I think in that situation you bring your closer on to start the ninth and don't worry about the fact that he won't get credited with a save.
On the other hand, I do think that the true shut down 3 out guy should be viewed in the same light as the true ace starter -- like Clemens/Johnson/Maddux or whomever in their prime -- perhaps even more. There are going to be 20 or more games a year where you have a 1 or 2 run lead and all you need are 3 outs.
So I guess the bottom line is that I see the true value in someone like Mariano, especially given his post season performance. But I don't necessarily buy into the "wealth" of the 40 plus save guy. I have seen too many times where the team has a 5 run lead and somehow the bases get loaded with 2 outs. The "star" closer comes on and throws 1 pitch to end the game but gets a save because the potential tying run was in the on deck circle.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,736
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 6, 2008 19:54:44 GMT -5
I think it's pretty basic when a player is maximized as a reliever versus a starter.
Pitchers with three plus pitches can do both well -- but should be starters. More innings generally outweigh the leverage. The last great pitcher with only two offerings of value was Randy Johnson, and he's 6'10", lefty, and a complete freak. You simply do not see many effective two pitch starters anymore.
Pitchers with one or two elite pitches should be relievers. Rivera pretty much has his cutter and that's it, but so what, it works. He could be a starter, and probably a pretty good one but people would adjust to the pitch easier as a starter.
Seems simple to me.
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,197
|
Post by hoyarooter on Aug 6, 2008 19:56:56 GMT -5
That's the entire point of the article, he is arguing that their importance to the team is minimized by how they're being used. He isn't belittling their abilities, he's belittling their performance for the the exact reasons you said. He, and Bill James, think that the best reliever should not always be the guy who pitches the 9th inning. Your stat on the Angels leading the MLB in 1-run victories is out-of-date - the Rangers now have 24 1-run victories, and they had CJ Wilson's 6+ ERA going 24/28 on save opps for 4 months. Don't bother arguing baseball with this man. He still wants to trade A-Rod for Joe Crede. So do I. That would be a great salary dump for the Yankees, and I'd take my chances with A-Rod on the White Sox. ;D
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 6, 2008 23:54:10 GMT -5
What's ironic---the Yankees wanted Joe Crede when A-rod appeared gone--so I guess I don't know a thing about baseball. I'd still do that move and I know A-Rod's "greatness". You could've added so much to a team that needs it with the money it spent to have A-Rod--but that is hindsight. Besides--it's not like guys like Crede or Mike Lowell ever played on teams that won titles--oops--nevermind.
|
|
Hank Scorpio
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
You're gonna die now!
Posts: 573
|
Post by Hank Scorpio on Aug 7, 2008 8:23:22 GMT -5
But in the end decided that would not be a good idea and brought back the best player in the game, so what do you know? With Joe Crede and a competent CF [melky has to go] instead of A-Rod, the Yankees aren't sniffing the playoffs. A-Rod, Damon and Giambi have put the team squarely on their backs offensively. I don't think the Yankees have that many holes that could be fixed with $ at this point. The young pitching is germinating, and the bullpen has been outstanding. They've just had a lot of injuries - A-Rod missed a month, their ace entering the season is out for the year, their ace halfway through the season now has a shoulder issue and could be done for the year, Posada's huge bat behind the plate is out for the year, Matsui is out for the year... Those are holes that developed as the season progressed. Cashman did a pretty stellar job at the deadline, but he can't go on FA sprees midseason. He has 80 million to play with after this season, and with the new Stadium revenues and revenue sharing break they get due ot Stadium renovations...I think the Yanks will be just fine, despite A-Rod's mammoth deal. Weighing in on the closer debate...Mariano Rivera is a once in a generation pitcher, if that often. He's the exception, not the rule, as "closer" is an overvalued position. Your best pitchers should log the most innings, provided they can. Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Joba Chamberlain...using them for 70 innings a year would be ridiculous. Rivera was converted b/c he had Tommy John and the Yankees were worried about his arm holding up. Same reason Papelbon was converted. If the arm can hold up...would you rather have Cy Young or the Rolaids Relief Man? The Marlins won a World Series with Ugueth Urbina closing...c'mon. And Ted Williams never won a World Series. Doesn't take away from his greatness in any way, shape or form. If you want to swap him for Chad Curtis b/c Curtis has a ring, by all means... Going back into hiding - Hank Scorpio What's ironic---the Yankees wanted Joe Crede when A-rod appeared gone--so I guess I don't know a thing about baseball. I'd still do that move and I know A-Rod's "greatness". You could've added so much to a team that needs it with the money it spent to have A-Rod--but that is hindsight. Besides--it's not like guys like Crede or Mike Lowell ever played on teams that won titles--oops--nevermind.
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 7, 2008 11:45:01 GMT -5
A-Rod's not to blame--just feel with the money spent on 1 player who isn't going to make a difference whether you get to World Series or not--you might as well let him go, get a serviceable player and have the money to use at other positions.
Calling Alex Rodriguez the best player in the game is your opinion. More to being the best then pretty numbers.
My question to Alex's PR manager--why do you only talk about A-Rod? I mean why is he so "special to you" and you refuse to acknowledge that a team might be better without him? Remember--you aren't factoring in the guy playing in his place would be better-we're talking about the TEAM--as in you can make moves to get more players/parts needed.
Crede and Lowell aren't better then A-Rod-but it does prove you don't need "the best player in game" on your team to win--you need the best TEAM.
We've been through this and I've said it all along--I think Yankees will never win a championship with the guy on the team. So far, I'm right. Doesn't mean all of the blame is on him--but it's just something I think will happen. So far--I'm right. Doesn't mean A-Rod sucks--but it's kind of like my hatred of Posada. Sometimes you see something and statistics aside--it's proven to be correct. Same feel I have for A-Rod--just think it would be a better TEAM without him. I feel same about Giambi as well.
As for Melky Cabrera--it's funny that his manager points to his DEFENSE as being important and as awful as he's been at plate--along with most of this team in all honesty--Jeter and Cano have been miserable this season at the plate---they still are in contention at this time of year with superior CATCHING in Molina and DEFENSE UP THE MIDDLE--Molina, Cano, and Cabrera. If you had Posada and Damon in CF--this team is in last place in AL East with pitching injuries and awful defense.
Depends on your viewpoint in regards to relief. In today's baseball with the way starters are monitored, offensively driven game, is it better to have a guy who can make his way into more games or pay a starter a lot and hope his starts aren't wasted/can stay healthy with more workload? Josh Beckett, Santana are exceptions to rule-the "rule" is a lot of mediocre pitching and rather have a great closer that will be a factor for decade. That Marlin team with Urbina--had Beckett, Penny, Pavano, Willis. 2 of those guys are innings eaters--Beckett and Penny--but McKeon managed that team old school--using pitchers and not using his pen as most teams do these days. That season-it resulted in a World Title. Urbina was on downside of his career but was a proven closer for many years--it's not like it was a rookie out there who never proved himself. The way McKeon used that staff proves my point--you can win with a different approach to pitch counts, etc..
Torre gone--improvement. Posada down--improvement. A-Rod back--we'll see. Hope you are right Boras, Borat, or Hank Scorpio--but agree to disagree. As a Yankee fan, I hope A-Rod leads them to a title every year. I just feel paying a 3B that much money is just ignorant. He's a 3B--you can find a superior defensive player--who will hit a little less average, come up 40 RBI's below A-Rod and fill other needs at 3/4 less the salary and address other need areas.
Thought I was going to have a holy trinity of happiness this offseason with Torre, Posada, and A-Rod gone-but it ended up 1/3 of way I wished. Hope you are right in end--but have my doubts.
|
|
Buckets
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by Buckets on Aug 7, 2008 11:54:57 GMT -5
Well I would say ARod's value in the field is not being maximized by playing him at third base... Guy was one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball, but I guess the Yankees would rather have a shortstop with one of the worst ranges in the league at his position.
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 7, 2008 12:12:07 GMT -5
A-Rod wouldn't have been a significant upgrade and certainly not on a team where the "worst range" SS had won 4 titles and played on 6 World Series teams prior to his arrival. You do that--and put even more pressure on Rodriguez--who would've been unfairly scrutinized. It's just too bad A-Rod's range is as bad as Jeter right now--because Jeter's skills are better suited at 3B then A-Rod--who I wouldn't mind seeing play 1B. Jeter charges balls well/does well coming in, he's good to his glove hand and if you get an upgrade at SS--you wouldn't have to worry about the balls he can't get to his left. A-Rod's also crappy going to his left--but at 1B--that wouldn't matter--as he's better going to his right--which is in hole at first.
All for not--nobody is moving anytime soon-so just more bad defense/lack of range on leftside.
|
|
hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Aug 7, 2008 12:13:12 GMT -5
Well I would say ARod's value in the field is not being maximized by playing him at third base... Guy was one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball, but I guess the Yankees would rather have a shortstop with one of the worst ranges in the league at his position. C'mon .. Jeter is every bit the player A Rod is ... just read the NY daily journals, they'll tell you.
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,197
|
Post by hoyarooter on Aug 7, 2008 13:37:23 GMT -5
I don't think Hank Scorpio is Borat, but I've been wondering what happened to Borat - what's a Yankee discussion without him?
|
|
Hank Scorpio
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
You're gonna die now!
Posts: 573
|
Post by Hank Scorpio on Aug 7, 2008 13:41:40 GMT -5
This is an old discussion, so I won't rehash anything I have said before. Just a few points: - Melky Cabrera is a 4th OF at best, and I am praying for Austin Jackson's development, because the Melkman stinks. Jose Molina should not play every day. If you think their defense up the middle is the reason the Yankees are in contention, all well and good, but you're overlooking the fact that Damon, Giambi and A-Rod were/are beasting. The runs they create are much more responsible for the team's success than the runs the other guys prevent. - A-Rod's zone rating is 2nd among MLB third basemen. Fielding metrics are an inexact science, but UZR seems pretty accurate www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_well_can_we_project_team_defense_and_other_uzr_data/ A-Rod has the 2nd best UZR of any 3b in the majors right now. He gets to a lot of balls, and has a cannon for an arm. I do not think he is a liability out there. - As far as the money argument goes...the Yankees don't have a budget. (not to mention the fact that the revenue A-Rod generates makes his salary palatable) Retaining A-Rod did not make them pass up on anyone, or not fill any holes they needed to. Here is a list of free agent signings from this past offseason sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?type=signed&season=2007Not sure who we missed out on bringing him back, but, rest assured, the Yankees can sign anyone they want. They can sign Manny, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira (and that would just be a wash with what they have coming off the books) this offseason if they want to, and pay them 20 million each. They are bound by no financial constraints. Anyway, the list of great baseball players without World Series rings is a long one. Ted Williams and Tony Gywnn are two of the greatest hitters ever. You can't do it alone.
|
|
Hank Scorpio
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
You're gonna die now!
Posts: 573
|
Post by Hank Scorpio on Aug 7, 2008 13:42:59 GMT -5
i'm transformed! haha, i keep my baseball discussions to a minimum, the UFC kind of owns my life right now so that gets most of my attention. i still watch, just don't have as much time to read/research like the nerd that i am I don't think Hank Scorpio is Borat, but I've been wondering what happened to Borat - what's a Yankee discussion without him?
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 7, 2008 14:49:23 GMT -5
Tony Gwynn also played in 2 World Series---how many has A-Rod made and A-Rod has been on far superior teams then Gwynn. That is the point-if the guy is the so called "GREATEST PLAYER IN GAME"--and he's surrounded with teams he's had in Seattle and New York--wouldn't the greatest player eventually get to a World Series? Barry Bonds eventually did with Giants. Ted Williams played in a different era--if he was in today's game--his Red Sox would've made Postseason at some point with expanded playoffs. I guess my definition of what makes someone great is maybe a big higher then yours.
Molina and Cabrera are valued more by people who appreciate the fact defense does matter--especially when the best player in the game is hitting .237 with RISP and not driving in guys when it's needed. Even Jeter--with his awful season is hitting .306 in same situation and that is with the frustrating/offense killing 18 HIDP he's got--on pace for 25 this year after 21 last year. Of course you think Varitek is worthless--and yet his peers and Red Sox fans seem to understand his value. Winning isn't all about stats--but it's hard to convince some people. The stats that fans remember--Championships and building a team doesn't always mean you get a guy who is considered the "Greatest Player" or "Best Player"--it's about building the best team--a group who play with one agenda-to win. A-Rod plays for stats. He doesn't understand that sometimes--a ground ball to 2B to move a guy is more important then a hit--and it's why he's perceived this way. He's not the only one--but he has done this time and time again to just consider it an "off" year or "chance". He's often caught watching instead of being in position for plays, he doesn't backup plays like he should, he's a mediocre base runner, it goes on and on and there aren't any stats to show this stuff--you have to watch every game, and know what to look for--which doesn't mean a guy who steals bases is automatically a great base runner, or has a strong arm is a great fielder.
If you don't see Molina's value--then I can't help you. He's helped the pitchers by being a great receiver/being on same page and his throwing is best in baseball. Without him--this team is in last place. Cabrera is awful at the plate--but his defense has been a huge help and on a team that struggles to score runs--in part due to the ineffective offense with runners in scoring position--defense/pitching is how you stay in games.
I know we agree on Torre's departure being a help--and it's been proven in handling of pitchers and especially the bullpen--where Girardi/Eiland have been outstanding in not wearing them out and using guys in various situations.
The fact this team is only 3 games out of Wildcard with 3/5 of planned rotation out most of year, is a testament to their defense and specifically Molina's handling of Mussina. Mussina is a guy who despised working with Posada and it's shown in his performance. I thought he was done 3 years ago and would still let him go in offseason as it's a case of "get rid of a year too soon/then wait for the end". If Molina is not your everday catcher--which he's not going to be-you are better off getting rid of Mussina as well.
I don't need to see "zone/range" rankings--I watch the games played. If you think Jeter is lacking in range--watch A-Rod attempt to go to his left--it's equally painful and inept. He also never moves--he's usually stationed 5 feet to left of 3b, near cut of grass and gives himself no ability to range either way.
The defensive rankings in baseball can't be taken seriously--due to inept scorekeeping which awards guys like Placido Palanco an errorless season-when he's making errors that aren't scored properly. These guys dont' take infield, or work on their defense and then get benefits of doubt when a ball that should be fielded isnt'. So you see a guy like Cano make a high number of errors at second for Yankees-but in reality he's a superior defensive player to A-rod and Jeter combined--because he can get to balls those two could only wave at. So over course of season--he might have higher then expected errors but also take away balls that are hits.
Is Alex Rodridguez a great player. No question. Hall of Famer. You know it. Greatest HR hitter of all time? Well on his way. Would I appreciate him more as a non-Yankee? No--never thought much of him in Seattle or Texas--thought he was more about himself then team and still do. Great thing is-you can be that way and still "help" your team and not appear to be that way due to numbers. Just funny how he is on teams that can't get over hump though--and that often happens when you have a different agenda/way of looking at how winning is achieved.
|
|
Hank Scorpio
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
You're gonna die now!
Posts: 573
|
Post by Hank Scorpio on Aug 7, 2008 15:16:05 GMT -5
OK
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 7, 2008 22:54:53 GMT -5
When Texas wears their "home blue" and they show Ron Washington in the Dugout--why do I think of Richard Pryor as "Monty Brewster" and Rangers as "Hackensack Bulls" from Brewsters Millions?
|
|
hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Aug 8, 2008 11:48:09 GMT -5
I'm going to take the other side on this one RDF. I think A Rod receives more grief than he deserves. I've watched quite a few games as well, and I don't see the severe defensive liability that you suggest. As for him being all about stats, I would wonder what you base that on. Baseball is, more than any other game, all about stats as a game. But when you make that statement, it implies putting personal stats above team success. By and large, better personal stats are more conducive to team success. That being said, I do understand the principle of giving yourself up by hitting the ball the other way to advance a baserunner, but I don't ever remember that being an issue with A Rod. And with the very scrupulous eye of the media squarely focused on him 24/7, I would expect that I would have if that was really an issue.
|
|
RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
|
Post by RDF on Aug 8, 2008 12:35:21 GMT -5
I'm going to take the other side on this one RDF. I think A Rod receives more grief than he deserves. I've watched quite a few games as well, and I don't see the severe defensive liability that you suggest. As for him being all about stats, I would wonder what you base that on. Baseball is, more than any other game, all about stats as a game. But when you make that statement, it implies putting personal stats above team success. By and large, better personal stats are more conducive to team success. That being said, I do understand the principle of giving yourself up by hitting the ball the other way to advance a baserunner, but I don't ever remember that being an issue with A Rod. And with the very scrupulous eye of the media squarely focused on him 24/7, I would expect that I would have if that was really an issue. He and Jeter form an awful leftside of an infield. No range--and A-Rod has a great arm--but he can't get to balls and has shaky hands--jabs at a lot of balls when fielding. Jeter has no range to his left--but it's made up by Cano who has great range. Problem is--Jeter has to get to hole on so many balls that A-Rod can't get to his left--he's always flat--never plays with various depth--and his lateral quickness is poor--because he's often caught stiff legged and not down low enough prior to pitch being delivered. It limits range of motion, hurts you when balls take hops and I blame the organization on that-because it happens to a lot of players--due to not taking infield enough. Everytime A-Rod or Jeter take "extra ground balls" they usually have a nice defensive game--coincedence? Admittedly, I could fall into the group who judges him too harshly based on the label given to him--"best player in game". If he was just A-Rod--3B of Yankees, I might not judge him as severely and would ignore the numerous failures with RISP--be it K's, pop ups, or DP and let's face it--if someone offered me the money he received--I'd take it too. So that could very well effect my judgement--and others too. I'll give you that and I'm sure that is what Borat is seeing when I criticize--so to both of you--I can admit that and see your point. Just watching a guy with his status--you never get feeling he's going to come up big in those situations--where I watch a guy like Manny Ramirez and expect hits or runs driven in or others. Could be my own bias--but seeing him 5 years now--only felt confident with him up last year-when he was everything he's been hyped to be--and it just happened to be a contract year--so the selfish angle comes up again--which isn't fair--but you either like how players approach game or not--and for whatever reason I don't like him or feel confident with him in a big game/big situation.
|
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,197
|
Post by hoyarooter on Aug 8, 2008 17:59:48 GMT -5
I'm going to take the other side on this one RDF. I think A Rod receives more grief than he deserves. I've watched quite a few games as well, and I don't see the severe defensive liability that you suggest. As for him being all about stats, I would wonder what you base that on. Baseball is, more than any other game, all about stats as a game. But when you make that statement, it implies putting personal stats above team success. By and large, better personal stats are more conducive to team success. That being said, I do understand the principle of giving yourself up by hitting the ball the other way to advance a baserunner, but I don't ever remember that being an issue with A Rod. And with the very scrupulous eye of the media squarely focused on him 24/7, I would expect that I would have if that was really an issue. He and Jeter form an awful leftside of an infield. No range--and A-Rod has a great arm--but he can't get to balls and has shaky hands--jabs at a lot of balls when fielding. Jeter has no range to his left--but it's made up by Cano who has great range. Problem is--Jeter has to get to hole on so many balls that A-Rod can't get to his left--he's always flat--never plays with various depth--and his lateral quickness is poor--because he's often caught stiff legged and not down low enough prior to pitch being delivered. It limits range of motion, hurts you when balls take hops and I blame the organization on that-because it happens to a lot of players--due to not taking infield enough. Everytime A-Rod or Jeter take "extra ground balls" they usually have a nice defensive game--coincedence? Admittedly, I could fall into the group who judges him too harshly based on the label given to him--"best player in game". If he was just A-Rod--3B of Yankees, I might not judge him as severely and would ignore the numerous failures with RISP--be it K's, pop ups, or DP and let's face it--if someone offered me the money he received--I'd take it too. So that could very well effect my judgement--and others too. I'll give you that and I'm sure that is what Borat is seeing when I criticize--so to both of you--I can admit that and see your point. Just watching a guy with his status--you never get feeling he's going to come up big in those situations--where I watch a guy like Manny Ramirez and expect hits or runs driven in or others. Could be my own bias--but seeing him 5 years now--only felt confident with him up last year-when he was everything he's been hyped to be--and it just happened to be a contract year--so the selfish angle comes up again--which isn't fair--but you either like how players approach game or not--and for whatever reason I don't like him or feel confident with him in a big game/big situation. I personally could live without this type of introspection, and much prefer the rants. ;D
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Sept 11, 2008 14:50:44 GMT -5
The White Sox should make sure to include Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Jesse Crain when they're divvying up playoff bonuses. They should also thank Gardenhire for refusing to use his best relief pitcher for more than one inning at a time.
|
|
hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Sept 11, 2008 14:58:06 GMT -5
On an unrelated note, the Anaheim/LA Angels became the first team to clinch a playoff birth. Not surprisingly, they have a former Gator on their roster -- sidearming rookie reliever Darren O' Day. Otherwise known as "D" -- "O" -- "D!"
|
|