Who I Want To Lose...

[rhman]

For the next few days, I figured I needed a cheat sheet showing who I want to lose. At this point, my focus here is how we get a #2 seed. I think this is ours to lose right now. Based on the other threads by people much smarter than I am, here is a list of the teams that could realistically get a #2. I ranked these in the order I think they currently stand for seeding. I also tiered them based on my confidence level of them getting a #2 on Sunday evening.

Team, Record, Pomeroy, RPI
---------------------------
Kansas, 28-3, #1, #8

Duke, 26-4, #5, #4
Texas, 26-5, #9, #5
Georgetown, 25-4, #8, #7
Wisconsin, 26-4, #4, #13

Louisville, 24-7, #7, #11
Xavier, 26-5, #15, #9
Vanderbilt, 25-6, #48, #10
UConn, 24-7, #21, #14
Stanford, 24-6, #14, #17

So, Rooting Suggestions...
Kansas is sitting pretty for a #2 seed and could possibly sneak into a #1. Not going to bother rooting against Kansas
Duke, Texas, and Wisconsin: We need to outlast at least one of these teams in our respective conference tournaments. Rooting for all of them to lose ASAP (which is normal for Duke, but not the others)
Louisville: The only way they get the #2 is winning the BET and us losing on Thursday along with Duke, Texas, or Wisconsin flopping. To make it easier on us, I would like them to make an early departure from the BET.
UConn, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Stanford: Need to win their tournaments and have the other higher teams fall apart.

In reality, other than Louisville, which has the best shot of winning the BET outside of GU, I am not too worried about teams outside my second tier. I am almost ready to agree with Giga and say we are a lock for a #2..... ALMOST!

[jester]

I could see the selection committee, if it is anything like the media, seeing the top tier BE teams as all good teams but especially L'Ville and Gtown as basically two teams still tied, beating up on each other once, with some margin in total losses reflecting Padgett's injury.

Therefore, I could easily see the winner of the BET (who will have to beat good teams to get there) getting a 2 seed. We would then not get the 2 seed should LVille accomplish this/Wisconsin is shown the love and/or they get further than us.

I think the key statement you said is we have outlast Duke Texas or Wisconsin...I am convinced that will have to mean we must win 2 games to be near a lock, as I can see these teams having an easier route to the tourney finals than us.


Of course I will root against the teams you listed...

[Hoya TMF]

As this has been the subject of must discussion on the board ...

How do you think our close wins will impact the committee's analysis? A lot of analysts have suggested that Nova's loss should be discounted because of the late foul call. Do you think the committee will "discount" any one of the Nova, Marquette or West Virginia wins because they were "controversial." I'd say the same thing for UCLA, but I doubt the committee will treat us the same.

[TBird41]

Mar 12, 2008 10:30:43 GMT -5 Hoya TMF said:

As this has been the subject of must discussion on the board ...

How do you think our close wins will impact the committee's analysis? A lot of analysts have suggested that Nova's loss should be discounted because of the late foul call. Do you think the committee will "discount" any one of the Nova, Marquette or West Virginia wins because they were "controversial." I'd say the same thing for UCLA, but I doubt the committee will treat us the same.

I have no source on this, but I seem to remember the committee stating that they wouldn't penalize the winner of a controversial game, even if they were planning on discounting the loss when considering the loser's resume.

(ie, the loss to us wouldn't hurt Nova, but it would still be considered as a win for us)