What bubble teams would you put in the tournament?

[H2Oya 05]

What teams do you think will get the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament. I'm using ESPN's Bubble Watch from March 9th to define what teams need to still do more work. I'd guess there are about 7 at large bids left (assuming there are 3 surprises in the conference tournaments).

ohio state, dayton, massachusetts, arkansas, texas a&m, arizona, syracuse

with massachusetts as the last team in and with mississippi then davidson as the first two teams out.

Also, I'd put Mississippi State on the Bubble but in even though Bubble Watch has them as a lock. Their rpi is only 39th and they don't have many impressive wins.

[hifigator]

Mar 10, 2008 15:07:33 GMT -5 H2Oya 05 said:

What teams do you think will get the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament. I'm using ESPN's Bubble Watch from March 9th to define what teams need to still do more work. I'd guess there are about 7 at large bids left (assuming there are 3 surprises in the conference tournaments).

ohio state, dayton, massachusetts, arkansas, texas a&m, arizona, syracuse

with massachusetts as the last team in and with mississippi then davidson as the first two teams out.

Also, I'd put Mississippi State on the Bubble but in even though Bubble Watch has them as a lock. Their rpi is only 39th and they don't have many impressive wins.

Mississippi State is definitely in. And it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a run at least to the second weekend. Like so many other times, it will be a matter of matchups in their case. They have a great one-two punch in Jamont Gordon and Vertado (I forget his first name). And Rick Stansbury is a very underrated coach. As for Mississippi, I don't think they are in without a strong run in the sec tourny. I would think they have to win 3 straight at a minimum, but two for sure. I think Arkansas is in and I think Ohio State played themselves in last week winning both games against solid if not spectacular opponents.

[H2Oya 05]

Thoughts on South Alabama and St. Mary's. Are they the locks for at large bids that Lunardi seems to think? St. Mary's seems to have played a better schedule in so much as every team that has beaten them is likely to make the tournament whereas South Alabama has some truly questionable losses (But a home win against Mississippi State). I'd put both teams in if the tournament started today.

Davidson winning its conference though means that it wasn't an awful night for bubble teams.

[sleepyjackson21]

I think St Mary's deserves to be in but i can see the committee not taking 3 teams from the WCC. They have an excuse now to leave off a deserving mid major.

[HoyaFanNY]

i imagine illinois state is out now, maybe new mexico also. they'll probably replace one mid-major with another. i think both st. marys and gonzaga make it. i think both south alabama and vcu deserve it, but they might only pick one of the two.

high major bubble teams better pray that butler and kent state both win.

[HeartAttackHoya]

south alabama > VCU

[hoyarooter]

Actually, I think that USA and Gonzaga both losing made last night a really disastrous night for bubble teams. I think they're both in (USA's RPI is too good for them to not make it), which means two bubble teams just got swept down the drain.

[hifigator]

rooter, I think you are right on the money.

One of the local sports talk shows has been giving a run down of all of the games that "matter" to the Gators. We are certainly on the bubble, and in all honesty, I think we are on the wrong side of the bubble. I think one win in the SEC tourney is an absolute must and probably not good enough. I think 2 wins will get us in. That would be 23 wins and would give us a 2nd win over RPI top 50 and when it comes down to those final spots, in that case, I just can't see the committee leaving out the 2 time defending Champion. But if we lose on Thursday, we are toast. There is no way we can count on our laurels from the past 2 years with a four game losing streak to end the season.

[SDHoya]

Rooter, meet Missouri St. Last year they had a 36 RPI and missed the dance. In 2006 their RPI was 21, and missed the dance. According to kenpom, So. Alabama has an RPI of 37, with their biggest win coming against RPI 38 Miss. St.

Personally, I think they will be passed over by someone with better wins but perhaps a lower RPI.

[hoyarooter]

Mar 11, 2008 15:12:55 GMT -5 SDHoya said:

Rooter, meet Missouri St. Last year they had a 36 RPI and missed the dance. In 2006 their RPI was 21, and missed the dance. According to kenpom, So. Alabama has an RPI of 37, with their biggest win coming against RPI 38 Miss. St.

Personally, I think they will be passed over by someone with better wins but perhaps a lower RPI.

This is a good point. I'm actually guilty of being a bit behind on RPI review. I recalled that USA had an RPI in the 20's (which I guess took a big hit from their loss to ETSU), and I couldn't imagine their not getting in. Missouri State clearly got shafted two years ago, but it's still precedent. USA will be sweating it out.

[PhillyHoya]

SYRACUSE = OUT. That is all.

[vcjack]

If there was ever a good meteor moment, a Cuse-UMCP NIT game would be it