Top 10 & Predictions on #1's & #2's

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Current Rankings/Schedule Left
1) Memphis, 26-0 / Tenn, Tulane, @usm, @smu, UAB
2) Tennessee, 24-2/ @memphis, @vandy, UK, @flor, USC
3) UNC, 25-2/Wake, @bc, FSU, @duke
4) Kansas, 24-2/ @ok.St, @isu, K.State, TEch, @a&M
5) Duke, 22-3/St.Johns, Gtech, @ncst, @uva, UNC
6) UCLA, 22-3/Or st., OReg, @asu, @ariz, Stan, Cal
7) Texas, 22-4/Okl, @ksu, @tech, Neb, Okst.
8) Butler, 25-2/Drake, WRight ST, Detroit
9) Stanford, 21-4/Cal, UW, WSU, @ucla, @usc
10) Xavier, 22-4/DUq, @dayt, GW, @st. Joe, Rich
11) Wisc, 21-4/ @osu, Mich ST., Penn St., @nu
12) Hoyas, 21-4/ UC, SJU, @marq, LVille

Creepers: UConn 20-5, Purdue 21-5, Indiana 21-4, LVille 20-6, Wash St. 20-5.

Predicted seeds:
#1's
Memphis (win or lose against Tennessee, weak conf games left)
Tennessee (win or lose against MU, weak conf games left)
Kansas (average conf games left)
UNC/Duke (whomever gets it together and wins their final match-up and plays decent in the weak ACC tourney)

#2's
UNC/Duke (see above)
UCLA
Stanford (probably enough to get it down with decent showing in Pac 10 tourney)
Gtown (need strong finish to hold off UConn/LVille)

I don't see Drake, Butler or Xavier creeping in to a top two seed and the big ten is pretty weak overall. I also just can't see Texas getting the nod but it will depend on the finish.

Comments/Concerns?

[SFHoya99]

I think UCLA ends up getting a #1.

[Jack]

The Big East will get at least one two seed, but there is far too much basketball left to be played. I could see a scenario in which, say, Georgetown or Louisville wins out, thus taking the no. 1 seed in the BET, but UConn wins the BET and the Big East ends up with 2 no. 2 seeds.

Or perhaps one team wins every game through the BET and is more deserving of a 1 seed than Tennessee after they lose to Memphis and maybe stumble in the SEC tournament, while UCLA and Stanfurd each pick up another loss or two along the way.

[HeartAttackHoya]

i'm going to disagree on the Texas assessment. I think they will be a #2 seed as long as they dont flop. The Big XII is strong this year: KU. Missouri, A&M, Baylor, KState, Oklohoma are all strong teams. Given the choice of Stanford and Texas, assuming both win their winnables and lose to the KUs or UCLAs, I think Texas sneaks in

[strummer8526]

Yeah Texas has had some big wins. If we get bumped lower than a 2, I think it's Texas that comes in there and knocks us out.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

based on those schedule, tennessee will lose at least once outside of memphis so i don't see them getting a #1 seed because the SEC is to weak. I think they have to beat memphis to get a #1 seed.
out side of the duke game i don't think UNC will lose, but if lawson continues to be out they could.
Kansas has an easy schedule the rest of the way, they'll probably win out. and will get a #1
Duke. They're struggling if they lose again which they probably will before the UNC game and they lose the rematch they'll be a 2.
UCLA will lose at least 1 more game. if they lose more than one more they're a 2 seed
Texas will probably win out, probably a 2 seed unless they slip up.
Butler probably a 3 seed at best deserve worse and could lose 3-14 4-13 5-12 game.
stanford Will lose at least one more game if not 2 could be a 2 seed if someone slips, most likely 3 seed.
Xavier 3 or 4 seed if they win out still have several tough games left
Wisconsin: Big 10 is a joke may lose to mich st. no big 10 team deserves above a 4 seed.
Hoyas win out including the BET could steal a one seed if someone slips. Play well the rest of the way and we'll get a 2 could fall to a 3 probably no further than that.
Ucon/louisville it will depend on the finish. Either wins big east could get a 3 seed, even with out could get 4 seeds 5th seeds at worst.
purdue indian mich st. : same boat as wisconsin winner of big 10 a 4 seed rest somewhere lower5-7
wash st. around a 6 seed.

So in conclusion

#1's
Memphis(lock)
Kansas (lock)
Winner of ACC
UCLA or Georgetown

#2's
Loser of ACC title battle
UCLA or Georgetown
Tennessee
Stanford or texas

#3's
Stanford or texas
Uconn
wisc or purdue or indiana
Butler or Xavier

#4's
Buttler or Xavier
2 of Wisc or Purdue or indiana
ND or louisville

[KHoyaNYC]

#1 seeds: Memphis, Tennesse (assuming only remaining loss is MU), Kansas, UNC (assume beat Duke)

#2 seeds: Duke, Texas, UCLA, Georgetown

[dajuan]

I hate to say it, but right now, based on our rank, we're much more likely a 4 seed than a 1 seed. If we do win the Big East regular season outright, we'll be in better shape, but I think we'd need to do quite well in the BET to even earn a 2 seed at this point.

[strummer8526]

My random, uneducated impression: we need to DOMINATE every game the rest of the year to even think about a 1. Win the BE season or BET, we're looking good for a 2. If the season ended today, we're a 3. Any kinds of slips that leave us second or third in the BE and anything less than a BET win, we're 4-6.

[hoyatables]

Best team in the Big East at the end of the season and BET gets a #2. There is NO team in the Big East that has played like a #1 seed this year. They all have some iffy losses.

That said, it looks like the Big East is probably the best conference. Assuming that L'ville, UConn, and of course the Hoyas finish strong, they would all be excellent sleeper picks, even if they are stuck with a lower seed.

[hifigator]

I think the Hoyas are in good shape for a 2 seed. Getting a 1 at this point would be difficult, but I have never thought it really mattered that much. Number ones and number twos don't lose in the first round (except Syracuse Hee-hee-hee) and after that you've got to show up every game.

I think Memphis has a 1 already, regardless, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them have an early exit in the round of 32 or 16, depending on their draw.

As for the ACC, I think UNC is the better team, even though Duke won the heads up game so far. I also think UCLA has a 1 to lose. So it looks something like this:

1's
Memphis
UNC
Kansas
UCLA

2's
Duke
Georgetown
Tennessee
Either Texas or BE runner-up/tourny winner

[hifigator]

I'm rooting for Butler to be the 3 seed in the same bracket that Georgetown is the 2. That would be an interesting matchup. Half the Country would have no idea which team was which.

[GUJook97]

Yeah, a Big East team is going to get a #2, unless you really think Stanford is going to hold where they are. In my opinion, they have to beat UCLA to stake that claim and they play them at Pauley, so I dont think its likely.

[jgalt]

The team winning would be georgetown and the team loosing would be butler...that was easy

[vamosalaplaya]

My first read of this was it shows just how close Georgetown is to landing at a number four seed, closer to a four seed a two seed if the tourney were seeded today, given that UConn and Lousville are playing better than GU and are ranked below them.

The cleanest way I can think about it is Georgetown can maybe lose one more game and still get a number two seed. Say, a loss at Marquette, and win out. Or a loss to Lousville, and then win the BET.

[idhoya]

I think Memphis gets a 1 cause of their body of work for the season. Unless they go into a tailspin, which isn't likely. I think if Duke loses again in the reg season and in the ACC tourney they could be lookin at a 3 seed; although ACC bias would certainly weave its magic. I think UCLA gets a, even if it doesn't win PAC-10 tourney. Has to win out in reg season though.

A wildly inconsistent team I wouldn't wanna play is Arizona. They have some size and can get hot from the perimeter. Arkansas is another, but they could just as easily lose in the opening round.


I think Memphis will go atleast to the Elite 8, but Tennessee smells like their a few missed three's away from being bounced early.

[hifigator]

Feb 21, 2008 17:07:38 GMT -5 idhoya said:

I think Memphis gets a 1 cause of their body of work for the season. Unless they go into a tailspin, which isn't likely. I think if Duke loses again in the reg season and in the ACC tourney they could be lookin at a 3 seed; although ACC bias would certainly weave its magic. I think UCLA gets a, even if it doesn't win PAC-10 tourney. Has to win out in reg season though.

A wildly inconsistent team I wouldn't wanna play is Arizona. They have some size and can get hot from the perimeter. Arkansas is another, but they could just as easily lose in the opening round.


I think Memphis will go atleast to the Elite 8, but Tennessee smells like their a few missed three's away from being bounced early.

I know exactly what you mean, but they keep winning. They are very deep and can flat out score. Their weakness is certainly on the defensive end, and as we all know, defense wins championships. That is why I think it will be really interesting to see just how far their potent offense can take them. I could see them in the Final 4 and I could see them getting bounced in the sweet 16. I don't see them losing in the first two rounds though.

[SFHoya99]

Baseball Prospectus has a good free article on Tennessee that sums up their weakness like this:

1. UT's defense is entirely dependent on forcing turnovers.
2. Teams that are good are preventing turnovers tend to be better at preventing them than teams that force them are at forcing them.
3. In other words, the team with the ball has more control over whether they commit a turnover than the defense.
4. So when Tennessee meets a team that is great at taking care of the ball, they struggle on D. Perfect example, their 2 point win versus a likely NIT bound West Virginia earlier this year.

They need to dodge teams that don't turn the ball over.

[hoyarooter]

Feb 21, 2008 16:47:16 GMT -5 GUJook97 said:

Yeah, a Big East team is going to get a #2, unless you really think Stanford is going to hold where they are. In my opinion, they have to beat UCLA to stake that claim and they play them at Pauley, so I dont think its likely.

I agree with this, but keep in mind that not so long ago Stanford beat UCLA in Pauley something like five years in a row.

The only way I see us getting a 2 is if we go no worse than 3-1 in our last four and then win the BET. Anything short of that lands us a 3 or a 4. If we, UConn or Louisville win the BET, that team will most likely get a 2, with the other two getting a 3 and a 4.