HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 7, 2008 22:23:51 GMT -5
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jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
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Post by jgalt on Feb 7, 2008 22:58:05 GMT -5
i read that, it was very interesting, its sort of like going for it on 4 and 1or2- statistically its the better option but it will never happen because that is not the predominant strategy in coaching
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njcoach
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 356
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Post by njcoach on Feb 8, 2008 9:31:04 GMT -5
I can't remember; were the Hoyas in the double bonus or just 1 and 1?
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PDRHoya99
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 766
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Post by PDRHoya99 on Feb 8, 2008 12:18:59 GMT -5
i read that, it was very interesting, its sort of like going for it on 4 and 1or2- statistically its the better option but it will never happen because that is not the predominant strategy in coaching Although I think you're essentially right, I couldn't help but comment on your analogy to TMQ logic, which states that going for it on 4th and 2 or less is always the right strategy. He often quotes the fact that the average play in the NFL gains 4-5 yards. That's a great stat, but has nothing to do with the question of going for it on 4th and short, because 4th and short is a specific game situation, and thus should not be equated to the average play. I would love to see the statistics on yardage gained on the average 4th down play, and more specifically the conversion rate (since a single long yardage play significantly throws off the average when most are somwhere in the +/- 2 yards category). Unlike TMQ, KenPom's analysis is actually pretty good. |
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Post by I Bleed Hoya Gray on Feb 8, 2008 12:30:06 GMT -5
I don't know PDR. Like 4th down, last minute free throws are also very different from other situation freethrows. Sapp has shown onions, so maybe he would be a better FT shooter than JWall when the game's on the line.
Also, for simplicity's sake, he killed the conversation at our freethrows. But what's to say we wouldn't foul WV after making or missing our attempts. Then you'd have to look at their freethrow shooting, which was abysmal that game. And I don't know if it would be much better with the added pressure.
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PDRHoya99
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 766
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Post by PDRHoya99 on Feb 8, 2008 12:44:50 GMT -5
He may not have covered every possible scenario, but he hit the major ones. You can probably work out a few more scenarios but I doubt it dramatically changes the percentages since there still were less than 10 seconds left. If you claim the foul comes much earlier in the possession then I'd agree with you. Of course his analysis fails to recognize how money Sapp is, and the 100% chance of losing if you let him create his own 3 in the closing seconds.
As for end game free throws, yes there is added pressure that will affect each player differently, but you can't make 1 free throw and dramitically change the free throw average for all attempts like you can for yards gained/play. In general, I'm guessing a players free throw percentage is a good indication of end game free throw percentage in a way that avg yds/play is not a good indicator of 4th down yards gained.
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Post by I Bleed Hoya Gray on Feb 8, 2008 13:52:13 GMT -5
Okay, I see you.
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vcjack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,875
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Post by vcjack on Feb 8, 2008 14:09:06 GMT -5
I think the bigger issue is how does a guy who is self professed as "not much of a basketball fan" A. know who Pomeroy is and B. take the time to write a highly thought out email to him about a non intuitive subject?
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rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,595
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Post by rosslynhoya on Feb 8, 2008 14:45:33 GMT -5
I think the bigger issue is how does a guy who is self professed as "not much of a basketball fan" A. know who Pomeroy is and B. take the time to write a highly thought out email to him about a non intuitive subject? Probably a math or econ prof studying some variant of sports and game theory.  |
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Feb 8, 2008 15:39:53 GMT -5
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theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,506 
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 8, 2008 16:07:16 GMT -5
They weren't asking about Pomeroy, they were asking about "Shane". To wit: "Ken, I am not really a basketball fan, so please forgive me if my question seems idiotic. After reading your Memphis free-throw article, I thought perhaps you would be the best person to answer it. (snip) Shane" |
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Gold Hoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,578
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Post by Gold Hoya on Feb 8, 2008 21:08:43 GMT -5
Perhaps Shane arrived via Baseball Prospectus
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