Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 6, 2008 12:10:56 GMT -5
There's been a lot of talk about who's improved, who hasn't, who's slumping, who's clutch at our guard position. I thought I'd run through some of the stats to see what has actually happened.
Jon.
Most of the controversy around Jon has swirled around his three point shooting. It's down from 49% last year to 43% this year.
Here's the thing: over 86 attempts, that's FIVE threes. Five. That's less than a point a game difference. It's not insignificant, but it isn't like he's missing two or three a game he should have made.
Now, his numbers are down recently, but Jon has always been streaky. It's entirely possible it is a prolonged slump. And by slump I don't mean bad luck; I mean his mechanics might be a bit off, or maybe he is taking a few harder shots. But it is only 5 3's over the amount of the attempts.
Also, note that Jon shot 22 for 40 in the post-season last year. At the end of the regular season, he was at 47%. Over 86 attempts, that's 3 threes.
Now that doesn't mean Jon is going to shoot over 50% in this year's post-season. He may not. In fact, 43% or so may be closer to Jon's real ability level than the 49% of last year. But to say this can't be a slump is silly -- tons of people in many sports slump for longer than this all the time. And to focus on it as if i means more than a three every few games means one thing:
The most significant change to Jon's 3-point shooting is our expectations of him. We expect him to hit every shot now. That just doesn't happen.
Funny thing is, otherwise, Jon's been a BETTER player. Jon is actually shooting more, per possession, than last year. His turnover rate is way down despite using the same number of possessions.
His real big issue this year? He's getting less minutes, taking a higher % of threes as his shots and they are falling at a slightly lower rate. Perhaps he needs to get in the lane more and get to the line more, but he's performing very similar to last year over the year as a whole.
Jessie.
There's no doubt Jessie is having a great season. He's been clutch at all the right times, his assist rate is way up, his three point shooting is way up, he's getting to the line more and rebounding better.
In short, he's taken over a lot of Jeff's responsibility to run the offense.
However, Jessie has actually been a bit less efficient than last year, and it is because when he took on that mantle of leading the team, his turnovers shot WAY up.
I don't say this to criticize -- he's still a much better player playing a bigger role, but if he can cut down on the one lazy entry pass or one lazy carry every game, this team will be much better.
Austin.
I think people have pegged Austin right on all counts.
He's hitting a bit of a wall on shooting. RDF is right that he's falling back or sideways on a lot of shots -- and that may have to do with fatigue.
But I think he's already a much better player than earlier in the season. Less productive because the shots aren't falling, but he's getting to the line (remember when he didn't have a foul shot for the first so many games?), rebounding, playing better D.
Hopefully, he'll get his legs back.
Jeremiah.
I'll make it simple on Rivers. He's kind of the anti-Jon. While he's improved offensively -- he's halved his turnover rate, and while his 2 pt shooting is down his outside shot is better -- the big reason people think Rivers has gotten worse is playing time.
It's simple -- Rivers is taking Jon's minutes. And Jessie's.
The question is -- does Thompson believe his defense warrants it? Does he defense warrant it? Or is this a developmental move? Or a move to keep Jon and Jessie fresh? Or are we playing more intense D making us need more bench time? Time will tell.
Chris.
We've got to look out for what's best for Chris. So that may mean not playing again this year.
What's amazing is how close Chris is to Jessie when he was in -- too many turnovers but making up for it in other ways.
Jon.
Most of the controversy around Jon has swirled around his three point shooting. It's down from 49% last year to 43% this year.
Here's the thing: over 86 attempts, that's FIVE threes. Five. That's less than a point a game difference. It's not insignificant, but it isn't like he's missing two or three a game he should have made.
Now, his numbers are down recently, but Jon has always been streaky. It's entirely possible it is a prolonged slump. And by slump I don't mean bad luck; I mean his mechanics might be a bit off, or maybe he is taking a few harder shots. But it is only 5 3's over the amount of the attempts.
Also, note that Jon shot 22 for 40 in the post-season last year. At the end of the regular season, he was at 47%. Over 86 attempts, that's 3 threes.
Now that doesn't mean Jon is going to shoot over 50% in this year's post-season. He may not. In fact, 43% or so may be closer to Jon's real ability level than the 49% of last year. But to say this can't be a slump is silly -- tons of people in many sports slump for longer than this all the time. And to focus on it as if i means more than a three every few games means one thing:
The most significant change to Jon's 3-point shooting is our expectations of him. We expect him to hit every shot now. That just doesn't happen.
Funny thing is, otherwise, Jon's been a BETTER player. Jon is actually shooting more, per possession, than last year. His turnover rate is way down despite using the same number of possessions.
His real big issue this year? He's getting less minutes, taking a higher % of threes as his shots and they are falling at a slightly lower rate. Perhaps he needs to get in the lane more and get to the line more, but he's performing very similar to last year over the year as a whole.
Jessie.
There's no doubt Jessie is having a great season. He's been clutch at all the right times, his assist rate is way up, his three point shooting is way up, he's getting to the line more and rebounding better.
In short, he's taken over a lot of Jeff's responsibility to run the offense.
However, Jessie has actually been a bit less efficient than last year, and it is because when he took on that mantle of leading the team, his turnovers shot WAY up.
I don't say this to criticize -- he's still a much better player playing a bigger role, but if he can cut down on the one lazy entry pass or one lazy carry every game, this team will be much better.
Austin.
I think people have pegged Austin right on all counts.
He's hitting a bit of a wall on shooting. RDF is right that he's falling back or sideways on a lot of shots -- and that may have to do with fatigue.
But I think he's already a much better player than earlier in the season. Less productive because the shots aren't falling, but he's getting to the line (remember when he didn't have a foul shot for the first so many games?), rebounding, playing better D.
Hopefully, he'll get his legs back.
Jeremiah.
I'll make it simple on Rivers. He's kind of the anti-Jon. While he's improved offensively -- he's halved his turnover rate, and while his 2 pt shooting is down his outside shot is better -- the big reason people think Rivers has gotten worse is playing time.
It's simple -- Rivers is taking Jon's minutes. And Jessie's.
The question is -- does Thompson believe his defense warrants it? Does he defense warrant it? Or is this a developmental move? Or a move to keep Jon and Jessie fresh? Or are we playing more intense D making us need more bench time? Time will tell.
Chris.
We've got to look out for what's best for Chris. So that may mean not playing again this year.
What's amazing is how close Chris is to Jessie when he was in -- too many turnovers but making up for it in other ways.