GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Oct 17, 2005 23:23:32 GMT -5
I'm not from St. Louis, and my wife thought I was crazy when I yelled at the TV "Edmonds take this pitch" just because I wanted Pujols to bat.
He didn't disappoint. Those fans deserve for the Cards to come back. The strike zone in game 4 was criminal and St. Louis has the best fans in baseball.
Go Cards.
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RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by RDF on Oct 17, 2005 23:52:49 GMT -5
And that is what TRUE BIG TIME PLAYERS do in big time games---I was yelling and I don't even care for anyone left in Playoffs but appreciate a guy of Pujols stature stepping up--but what about the AB by Eckstein?? HUGE!
Also, why go slider on Pujols the way Lidge was throwing?? It reminded me of the at the time dominant Wohlers of the Braves going to the slider againt Leyritz and that AB turned that entire series around--just as I feel this Pujols bomb will turn this around.
Have to admit, St. Louis-Chicago would be a great matchup and LaRussa facing his old team, cities who don't like each other on the field, etc... it'd be fun for Midwest and good Baseball too. I despise LaRussa's micro-managing of a game but I hate the Astros and Bagwell is a juice created player who I don't care for. Clemens would have to put off his "retirement" for another year which would be funny too.
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Joe Hoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
You're watching Sports Night on CSC, so stick around.
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Post by Joe Hoya on Oct 19, 2005 1:22:37 GMT -5
As soon as the ball left Pujols' bat I said "this series is over." I don't see how Houston can come back from that.
(Notices Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens are pitching Games 6 & 7)
Well, that's a start...
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Oct 19, 2005 3:19:33 GMT -5
I live in St Louis now and am hoping to be seriously conflicted come Saturday. I have been a White Sox fan for over 30 years but living in this town (I moved here years ago) it is hard to not be a Cards fan. Up until now the potential conflict has been irrelevant and their is always a shared hatred of the Cubs to fall back on. Pujols is absolutely amazing. Check out this link to see how amazingly consistent he has been in his first five seasons. www.baseball-reference.com/p/pujolal01.shtmlHe is the best hitter I have ever seen.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 19, 2005 11:57:44 GMT -5
Pujols is fun to watch. I wish he were a bit more all-around (speed, defense) but his ABs are great. The only other people I've probably enjoyed more:
1) Bonds. Yes, 'roids clouds the whole thing, but there simply was nothing more comparable in sports to a Bonds AB when he was locked in.
2) Tony Gwynn with a runner on second. Automatic. One of the few players who I think could actually place the ball. Announcers act as if all ballplayers can; most just try to hit the ball hard. Tony could hit it to a spot.
3) Frank Thomas 1990-1997. Actually a better hitter than Pujols, but very similar. No one talks about it, but for those seven and a half years, Thomas was insane. But three of those years were pre-HR boom, and his best year, what would have been his seminal year, ended in a strike.
As for Pujols, like I said above, I like the guy, but the comparisons to someone like Ted Williams are a joke. His raw totals are nice, but we're in a ridiculous run environment right now. Plus, they always state his stats as the first person to do this, this and this his first five seasons...which is a throwaway stat.
OPS+ takes that raw production and converts it OPS relative to league OPS -- how much of a better hitter were you than your peers, adjusting also for park effects?
Williams' first five years: 160, 162, 235, 217 (WWII) 215; career total of 90% better than average even though he missed 4-5 years of prime due to serving our country.
Pujols' first five years: 158, 155, 189, 175, 167 for a total of 69% better than average
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Oct 19, 2005 12:48:31 GMT -5
Ted Williams may be the best hitter who ever lived, so saying that Pujols doesn't quite measure up to Ted isn't exactly a slam. I assume it wasn't meant as one.
Funny thing is, Pujols was having a dreadful game Monday until the big bomb. Popped up with men on first and second and nobody out in the first, struck out with men on first and third and nobody out in the third.
HoyaChris, I'm in your boat. When I was a kid, Stan Musial's career was winding down, but he was my idol. So I became a Cardinal fan, and remain one to this day. Nevertheless, for me there is no choice here. If I am fortunate enough to see the Sox play the Cards in the series, it will be my dream series, but I will be pulling 1000000000000000000% for the Sox.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 19, 2005 12:58:03 GMT -5
So, 'rooter and Chris: Pujols 2000-2005 or Thomas 1990-1997?
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One
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by One on Oct 19, 2005 13:19:49 GMT -5
SF: I think you overlook Pujols' running and defense when you say you wish he was a more complete player. He actually upped his stolen base total to 16 this season, which is pretty high for a cleanup hitter. I concede that he has not run much in the past. Also, if you watch a lot of him, you will see he is an excellent baserunner - taking the extra base when available, etc. He is also a gold glove candidate at 1B. Nobody thinks of his defense because he played several positions his first few seasons. However, that was because the Cards had other 1B and Pujols was versatile enough to play elsewhere until those others left and he could make 1B his own. But watching him at 1B, he is an excellent defensive player - right up there with Helton and Lee in the National League. As great a hitter as he is, he truly is a complete player as well. And I'm a Cubs fan admitting this - which means I get to see him play about 18 times a season, much as I dont want to.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 19, 2005 15:08:13 GMT -5
One, I do realize that Pujols is a good baserunner for his speed (though a bit overaggressive for me) and a pretty good defender at 1B. He's already overrated there because he is solid and makes the plays but doesn't have the range of JT Snow or Derrek Lee.
When I mean all-around game though, I mean I'd like him even more if he was a true superstar. No matter how good a first baseman you are, you are still a below average fielder. Good-hitting SS and CF are much, much, much better all-around players by definition, and I've been longing for a truly speedy superstar for a while. What happened to the days of Mays and Mantle? Or Rickey Henderson? Griffey and Bonds in his pre-roids prime were there, and I do think the era's lack of balance (power, power, power) has something to do with it, etc, but Pujols is a hitter first, like Ted Williams or Frank Thomas or Babe Ruth (who was also a pretty decent baserunner).
I'm not trying to criticize, understand, just wishing for a bit more.
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One
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by One on Oct 19, 2005 16:14:15 GMT -5
SF, point taken. Unfortunately, I think you'll have a hard time getting your wish until they stop building ballparks like the Juice Box in Houston, Great American in Cincy, or whatever they call it in Philly. Those parks place no premium on outfielders who can run or throw. So as long as you can hit fairly long flyballs, you can have a spot in their lineup (and many others). Like you, I would rather see bigger parks that require outfielders to be able to run and throw, as well as giving an advantage to players who can effectively use those gaps to leg out triples, advance an extra base, etc. Having attended the all-star at Comiskey a couple years ago, I found Ichiro to be the one guy in that game to be worth the price of admission because of the versatility of his game. He hasnt been much of a power hitter, but I would find the game more interesting if every team had 3 outfielders similar to him (or the pre-juice Barry and Griffey) rather than guys like Pat Burrell or Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn. But with ballparks the way they are, those guys have tremendous value while their obvious defensive/speed deficiencies can be overlooked because they dont come into play nearly as often as they should.
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FormerHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by FormerHoya on Oct 19, 2005 16:52:25 GMT -5
Wasn't Adam Dunn gonna steal 50 bases this year? Didn't he ruin several fantasy drafts with his boasting? Didn't he date Angela? ;D
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by HoyaChris on Oct 19, 2005 16:55:05 GMT -5
So, 'rooter and Chris: Pujols 2000-2005 or Thomas 1990-1997? In the immortal words of Charlie Brown "Aaarghhhh." I am the world's biggest Frank Thomas fan (not to mention that I spotted him early and he made me a three time winner in my fantasy baseball league) but I would probably go with Pujols. This is a marginal call, but Pujols is a much better baserunner, a much better fielder and I believe a much better leader. Hitting is complicated. Thomas has marginally higher OPS for his first 5 full years, but Pujols is significantly better in both Runs (626 to 529) and RBI (621 to 564). Part or maybe all of this can be a function of teammates or ballpark, but I think that OPS and Runs Created may overstate the value of a lot of walks in the middle of the order if the players batting behind the guy with a lot of walks can't drive him in, Thomas's run totals seem kind of light given the number of times that he was on base and the number of times that he drove himself in with Home Runs. The leader thing matters. Even at his peak, Thomas seemed to go his own way a lot. Pujols is absolutely central to everything the Cardinals do.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 19, 2005 17:36:41 GMT -5
SF, point taken. Unfortunately, I think you'll have a hard time getting your wish until they stop building ballparks like the Juice Box in Houston, Great American in Cincy, or whatever they call it in Philly. Those parks place no premium on outfielders who can run or throw. So as long as you can hit fairly long flyballs, you can have a spot in their lineup (and many others). Like you, I would rather see bigger parks that require outfielders to be able to run and throw, as well as giving an advantage to players who can effectively use those gaps to leg out triples, advance an extra base, etc. Having attended the all-star at Comiskey a couple years ago, I found Ichiro to be the one guy in that game to be worth the price of admission because of the versatility of his game. He hasnt been much of a power hitter, but I would find the game more interesting if every team had 3 outfielders similar to him (or the pre-juice Barry and Griffey) rather than guys like Pat Burrell or Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn. But with ballparks the way they are, those guys have tremendous value while their obvious defensive/speed deficiencies can be overlooked because they dont come into play nearly as often as they should. Which is one reason I'm happy to be a Padres fan. Eventually, our OF will be that way in Petco. I don't mind the occasional Adam Dunn. But I'm with you -- baseball is at its best when it is balanced. The 80s were much better than the 90s or 00s so far. There was a place for Dave Kingman and Tony Gwynn, for Boggs and Rob Deer.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 19, 2005 17:58:30 GMT -5
So, 'rooter and Chris: Pujols 2000-2005 or Thomas 1990-1997? Hitting is complicated. Thomas has marginally higher OPS for his first 5 full years, but Pujols is significantly better in both Runs (626 to 529) and RBI (621 to 564). Part or maybe all of this can be a function of teammates or ballpark, but I think that OPS and Runs Created may overstate the value of a lot of walks in the middle of the order if the players batting behind the guy with a lot of walks can't drive him in, Thomas's run totals seem kind of light given the number of times that he was on base and the number of times that he drove himself in with Home Runs. The leader thing matters. Even at his peak, Thomas seemed to go his own way a lot. Pujols is absolutely central to everything the Cardinals do. Runs and RBI differences for Pujols most likely has to do with the lineup around him. Edmonds is a possible HOF, Larry Walker is HOF talent with rookie league durability, and Scott Rolen will possibly get to the Hall as well. Thomas never had those kind of players around him in Chicago, and Comiskey has played as a bit of a pitcher's park. As for the walk issue, let's look at the raw stats: Pujols (Age 25 / 2005) 444 outs (incluing DP+SF+CS), 114 singles, 38 2B, 2 3B, 41 HR, 16 SB, 133 BB+IBB+HBP Thomas (Age 28 / 1996) nearly identical run context - penultimate year of Thomas' peak 411 outs, 118 singles, 26 doubles, 0 3B, 40 HR, 1 SB, 140 BB Pujols is generating 25 extra bases at the expense of 33 extra outs, which is nice. But he only got on base an extra 8 times out of basically 41 opportunities - an OBP below .200. What I'm saying is 1) The differences in the raw numbers are pretty low. Thomas has a bad rep but he is very similar to Pujols. 2) Most of the time Thomas walked and Pujols didn't, Pujols got out. How is that better?
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Oct 19, 2005 19:43:15 GMT -5
All these stats are making my head spin. Good stuff.
I agree with HoyaChris's analysis of the intangibles and would therefore take Pujols over Big Hurt. Better speed, better fielder, better leader. In terms of RBI's, I would like to see a percentage of RBI's versus opportunities, to see if the conclusion that Pujols has better RBI numbers because of more opportunities is correct. But I would also like to see walks during those opportunities factored out. Thomas may have received more unintentional/intentional walks because he didn't have someone like Jim Edmonds hitting behind him. Any takers?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 20, 2005 0:46:20 GMT -5
All these stats are making my head spin. Good stuff. I agree with HoyaChris's analysis of the intangibles and would therefore take Pujols over Big Hurt. Better speed, better fielder, better leader. In terms of RBI's, I would like to see a percentage of RBI's versus opportunities, to see if the conclusion that Pujols has better RBI numbers because of more opportunities is correct. But I would also like to see walks during those opportunities factored out. Thomas may have received more unintentional/intentional walks because he didn't have someone like Jim Edmonds hitting behind him. Any takers? Retrosheet only goes to 1992. Don't know where I'd find the boxes without paying. What is odd is that you're viewing a Hurt walk in an RBI situation as a bad thing, as if the next batter is guaranteed to get out. Instead, he's added another runner on base, and while I assume the cleanup hitter on those teams wasn't as good as Walker, Rolen or Reggie Sanders, I doubt he sucked. For most of those years, you had a 120 OPS+ hitter in Robin Ventura hitting next. Now that's not spectacular, but it is All-Star quality. So, I ask you, what's better -- one runner on and a 70% chance of committing an out but Frank Thomas up or two runners on and Robin Ventura up? I'd take the latter everytime I think. The trouble people have with this is that they think if Thomas had just swung, he'd have naturally driven the runner in. That isn't necessarily true. He'd have most likely just gotten out. In fact, swinging at balls generates a lot more outs than normal. And the key to baseball is not getting out. To summarize: 1) There isn't much walking difference between Pujols and Thomas. We're talking 30 over a season. I doubt the gap with RISP is more than 10. 2) Even if Thomas walked with RISP, what's the big deal? He brought up Robin Ventura with at least two men on. Rather than risking an out.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Oct 20, 2005 12:38:47 GMT -5
I didn't explain why I wanted walks factored out. I didn't intend it as a negative, SF. My point, which I should have explained, was that if a batter is walked semi-intentionally, he is losing an RBI opportunity through no fault or act of his own. While it may or may not prove to be a good thing for the team (and you certainly make a respectable argument that more base runners is a good thing for the team at bat), I just didn't want the result of the analysis to work against the batter because he is regularly pitched around.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 20, 2005 14:03:20 GMT -5
I didn't explain why I wanted walks factored out. I didn't intend it as a negative, SF. My point, which I should have explained, was that if a batter is walked semi-intentionally, he is losing an RBI opportunity through no fault or act of his own. While it may or may not prove to be a good thing for the team (and you certainly make a respectable argument that more base runners is a good thing for the team at bat), I just didn't want the result of the analysis to work against the batter because he is regularly pitched around. Rooter - I understand. My response is more to the general critique that Thomas has always fought -- that he walks too much in RBI situations instead of driving them in. I will see what I can find. Probably RISP stats with walks removed.
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