Our RPI

[Cambridge]

We are currently #64 in RPI

Update on our Opponents:
#26 Temple (5-6) lost on the road vs #5 Duke (11-0)
#236 Citadel (5-3) won at home vs #225 Georgia Southern (2-7)
#170 Davidson (4-7) won on the road vs #298 Elon (1-12)
#208 Penn St. (5-9) lost on the road vs #38 Minnesota (11-3)
#7 Illinois (16-0) won on the road vs #135 Purdue (4-8)
#237 San Jose St. (3-9) lost on the road vs #37 Hawaii (9-2)
#82 Oral Roberts (10-3) won on the road vs #158 Valparaiso (5-9)
#273 Long Beach St. (2-11) lost at home vs #186 CSU Northridge (5-7)
#53 Clemson (9-5) lost at home vs #2 Wake Forrest (13-1)
#288 Norfolk St. (5-7) won on the road vs #206 South Carolina St. (7-6)
#251 Howard (4-6) won at home vs $304 Morgan St. (3-10)
#90 Pitt (11-2) won on the road vs #78 Rutgers (6-5)
#42 UConn (9-2) won on the road vs #64 Georgetown (9-4)

Our Results vs Opponents in the:
1-10: 0-1
11-20: 0-0
21-50: 0-2
51-100: 2-1
101-200: 1-0
201-300: 6-0
300+: 0-0
Overall: 9-4

[SFHoya99]

Well, this quells some of the "bubble" talk. Our RPI is too high, and we have no really impressive wins, as Pitt hasn't beaten anyone of note, yet.

We can play our way onto the bubble, but so far, only UConn, Temple and Illinois would get at large bids, and Oral Roberts maybe an automatic.

And surprise! That's our list of losses.

We still have UConn, Nova, Syracuse, BC and maybe some other games to make our case, however.

[Cambridge]

Still it is nice to see:

1) We didn't play any teams in the basement (ie 300+) as we have in previous years, of course that could change as some of our weaker opponents loose in conference play and spiral downwards. So far our opponents are a combined 88-70, which is a .556 winning percentage. Not bad.

2) We seem to have matched up well with teams in that with all teams from the middle category up...51+ RPI. That means you can assume that we are roughly in that ball park so far...much better than I would have ever expected if you had asked me at the beginning of the season.

3) We have a decent chance at making up some ground if we can get some wins in the near future, here are are upcoming opponents' RPIs and records:

01/11 vs #78 Rutgers (6-5)
01/15 AT #21 Villanova (8-2)
01/18 AT #24 Syracuse (15-1)
01/23 vs #102 Notre Dame (10-2)
01/25 vs #149 St. Johns (6-6)
01/29 AT #3 Boston College (13-0)
02/02 vs #159 Seton Hall (8-5)
02/05 AT #78 Rutgers (6-5)
02/12 vs $34 West Virginia (11-1)
02/16 AT #102 Notre Dame (10-2)
02/20 AT #149 St. Johns (6-6)
02/27 vs #21 Villanova (8-2)
03/02 AT #42 Connecticut (9-2)
03/05 vs #48 Providence (8-5)

For the bubble, we have to finish with a 10-6 record. Which would mean, we would have to get season series something like this:

Pittsburgh 1-0
UConn 0-2
Rutgers 2-0
Villanova 1-1
Syracuse 0-1
Notre Dame 1-1
St. Johns 2-0
BC 0-1
Seton Hall 1-0
West Virginia 1-0
Providence 1-0

That gives us a 18-9 record (10-6 conference) with:
Quality wins: Clemson, Pitt, Nova, ND, Prov, WV
Quality losses: Temple, Illinois, UConn, Pitt, Nova, Cuse, ND

This would give us a chance to make some noise in the Big East Tourney...

Of course this scenario requires us to nail the games we should (RU, SJ, SH)-- definitely not a given -- and take the home games against solid competition (Prov, Nova, WV). BIG IF...but not totally out there...

If we can get the Rutgers wins...let's start there...not get ahead of ourselves. Let's go hoyas!

[TrueHoyaBlue]

On those OOC opponents, one nice thing to look at is the conference records of some of our weaker opponents.

MEAC
Howard 2-0
Norfolk State 3-1

Southern
Davidson 3-0
Citadel 2-1

Unfortunately, it seems that it will be our non-MEAC/Southern Conference opponents that drag us down this season...

Long Beach State -- 0-4 in the Big West
San Jose State -- 0-3 in the WAC
Penn State -- 0-2 in the Big 10

[TrueHoyaBlue]

Cambridge,

minus the extra phantom loss that you're chalking up against Pitt (we don't play them at home this season), I like what you're doing with that analysis!

[GIGAFAN99]

Quells bubble talk? We have an entire conference season left and the BET, save two games. Unless your name is Lunardi and you have absolutely no other role at a sports network, there is no "bubble talk."

Let's see where we are at least midway through conference play before we speculate either way where we are. We can talk about where we can be or want to be but if you're looking at current RPI, Vermont is #22. That's when you know it's a bit early.

[Cambridge]

My B THB ;D

[Cambridge]

I agree Giga, I just wanted to take a peek ahead to see if it was even remotely possible. Seems like there is a shot, a slim one, but still a chance. But we have to win the games we are supposed to and take care of business at home against some solid competition. Those are BIG IFs

[GIGAFAN99]

I won't even say "slim chance" at this point. We're 9-4, 1-1 with one of the top 5 OOC SOS in the conference. We just played two of the three teams supposedly at the top of our conference to a draw.

Let's see how things shake out. We cause a lot of matchup problems with a tall wing and an athletic power forward.

Also, I saw some people think we're "due for a letdown" against Rutgers. We just lost! I don't know how excited the team must be from getting down 20 in the first half, but something tells me they aren't on a high at all. They'll come out tougher than ever to defend their home (as little home as it is) court.

[Cambridge]

Slim = little to no margin of error

[lichoya68]

about the bc predicted loss we MUST beat bc no other way to send them off by us from the big east to the acc no way we let the traitor jesuits escape with a win from us when you shake hands that your staying .....you stay especially if your a jesuit school. the right thing ....the moral thing is we must BEAT BC go hoyas beat rutgers then one at a time go hoyas

[Cambridge]

It wasn't a prediction, but a simple-minded guideline of the "path of least resistance" to 18 wins. I seriously doubt it will happen like that, but on paper that seems like the most likely scenario we would get 18 wins.

It was the most likely scenario to them. However, we could very well lose some of the games we should win and, less likely unfortunately, win some of the games we should lose.

I remember a game a few years ago where we pounded the living daylights out of BC on their court. I believe they were ranked then too. I say we do it again.

But first, let's take care of business against Rutgers. I think it will be a tough out, but we can get it.

[JohnJacquesLayup]

"Also, I saw some people think we're "due for a letdown" against Rutgers. We just lost! I don't know how excited the team must be from getting down 20 in the first half, but something tells me they aren't on a high at all. They'll come out tougher than ever to defend their home (as little home as it is) court."

Gigafan99,
I agree. Owens was quoted in the WP as saying: "No matter what we did right, what we did wrong, we want to know who won or who lost. There are no moral victories." I like this attitude because we had a team a couple years back that lost about 4 games in OT and another couple by only a few points. That doesn't show that we can play with anyone, but rather that we can't close out games.

-JJ

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

YB and I were talking about our schedule before the season and thought that 15 wins was going to be a stretch and that would make us a bubble team for the NIT. It is a good feeling to know that 18 wins isn't out of our reach at this point.