|
Post by showcase on Nov 2, 2004 14:00:12 GMT -5
There's a rumor I'd like to monger right now that KE04's internal polling suggests that they might be up one in Virginia. The source is a blog, so take it with this giant salt lick I procured from PetSmart.
I think Va. has the potential to be a surprise in Kerry's favor, but I'm absolutely sure that BC04 will receive some pleasant surprises as well. I think Wisconsin and Hawaii will go GOP in '04.
Anyone else have any gut instincts they'd like to memorialize that we can all come back here an mock tomorrow?
|
|
Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,301
|
Post by Cambridge on Nov 2, 2004 14:16:40 GMT -5
Heavy snow in Eastern Nevada...oooop thats Repub territory. Hmmmmm.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 2, 2004 14:38:47 GMT -5
Here is, reportedly, what the networks' exit polling is reportedly indicating. My understanding is that exit poll results come in at 1pm, 4pm, and after polls close... ............AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH Kerry......45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57 Bush.......55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41 Even the liberal blog that reports this says "take this with a giant grain of salt." May be interesting how to see things evolve over the course of the day. www.dailykos.com
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Nov 2, 2004 14:45:07 GMT -5
Here is, reportedly, what the networks' exit polling is reportedly indicating. My understanding is that exit poll results come in at 1pm, 4pm, and after polls close... ............AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH Kerry......45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57 Bush.......55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41 Even the liberal blog that reports this says "take this with a giant grain of salt." May be interesting how to see things evolve over the course of the day. www.dailykos.comI would agree that number showing Kerry up 60-40 in Pennsylvania and 58-40 in Minnesota would be a giant grain of salt. That being said, the early numbers look good for Kerry. Of course, if the last election taught us anything, it's wait until the last votes are counted (or re-counted) (or challenged)...
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2004 14:46:59 GMT -5
I would take it with a grain of salt given exit polling in 2000, but suffice to say that one campaign would rather see different numbers right now. I think most of these exit pollers agree that turnout will be around 60% FWIW.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 2, 2004 15:26:21 GMT -5
I would take it with a grain of salt given exit polling in 2000, but suffice to say that one campaign would rather see different numbers right now. I think most of these exit pollers agree that turnout will be around 60% FWIW. The 60-40 and 58-40 results have to be outliers, either due to sample anomolies and/or the possibility that more women vote during the day than men, and women prefer Kerry over Bush on the whole. That said, while the actual difference will no doubt be nowhere close to as wide as 20%, I think it may ultimately be indicative of how the state will go. Left to my own devices this morning, I was rather pessimistic about Kerry's chances. At this point, I think it will turn out to be the close race everyone's been predicting - and I hate when the "experts" are right! You have to wonder whether that huge and actual "silent majority" of people who decline to talk to poll-takers align predominantly behind one candidate or another. I think that's the pink elephant in the room that most pollsters don't want to talk about; they're just guessing as to how that group behaves.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,737
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 2, 2004 15:45:03 GMT -5
I'm sure this has been mentioned here before, but the vast majority of pollsters base their polls on "likely voters" which is really defined as "voted in last election."
Which I think is all useless here.
Exit polls are pretty good, but what happened in 2000 is that the networks used a 10% return, but of course it was all from Gore counties. The geographical bias is enormous and it is incredibly sad that no one at any of the major networks had anyone working that understands the statistics they run.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2004 15:54:13 GMT -5
Fair points, SF. I would think and hope that some adjustments have been made for this year. FWIW, Kerry's pollster has confirmed some of the early exit numbers based on what he's gathered independently.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 2, 2004 16:44:23 GMT -5
Despite all the solid reasons why one shouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, here are what appear to be the 4pm exit poll returns, drawn from www.wonkette.com and slate: .............AZ..CO..NV..MI..WI....PA...OH...FL...MI...NM...MN...WI...IA...NH Kerry......45...49..48...51...53...58...52...52...51...49....57...52...50...58 Bush......52...50...49...48...47...42...47...48...47...49....42...43...48...41 Keep your salt handy, y'all. Interestingly, exit polling also puts NC within reach as well. I suspect that will change back to what most people would expect as the nite wears on, but....
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Nov 2, 2004 18:07:11 GMT -5
Despite all the solid reasons why one shouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, here are what appear to be the 4pm exit poll returns, drawn from www.wonkette.com and slate: .............AZ..CO..NV..MI..WI....PA...OH...FL...MI...NM...MN...WI...IA...NH Kerry......45...49..48...51...53...58...52...52...51...49....57...52...50...58 Bush......52...50...49...48...47...42...47...48...47...49....42...43...48...41 Keep your salt handy, y'all. Interestingly, exit polling also puts NC within reach as well. I suspect that will change back to what most people would expect as the nite wears on, but.... There's only two ways to look at numbers from states like PA where it was supposed to be halfway close and is showing 58-42 Kerry in the exit polls. Either Kerry is really going to kick ass, or there's something very interesting/wrong with the exit polling methodology. Whatever you think, I'd rather be in Kerry's shoes at this point.
|
|
|
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 2, 2004 19:10:08 GMT -5
Just wanted to wish everyone a good evening and commend the other side for their solid campaign. May the best man win!
|
|
thebin
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,848
|
Post by thebin on Nov 2, 2004 19:30:28 GMT -5
More than anything, let this not be decided by legal wrangling.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 2, 2004 19:50:14 GMT -5
I hope there's no legal wrangling too. It was nice to hear reports that after all the pre-election wrangling about poll challengers in Ohio, it turns out they mostly just observed and evaluated, reserving challenges for those people who should properly have been challenged.
When we often tend to feel justified in assuming the worse about the other parties intentions, it's nice to get this confirmation that our worst fears aren't justified.
|
|
DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,518
|
Post by DanMcQ on Nov 2, 2004 23:47:30 GMT -5
Despite all the solid reasons why one shouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, here are what appear to be the 4pm exit poll returns, drawn from www.wonkette.com and slate: .............AZ..CO..NV..MI..WI....PA...OH...FL...MI...NM...MN...WI...IA...NH Kerry......45...49..48...51...53...58...52...52...51...49....57...52...50...58 Bush......52...50...49...48...47...42...47...48...47...49....42...43...48...41 Keep your salt handy, y'all. Interestingly, exit polling also puts NC within reach as well. I suspect that will change back to what most people would expect as the nite wears on, but.... ...may not be all they are cracked up to be...
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 3, 2004 8:14:41 GMT -5
Ha! Understatement of the election season!
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Nov 3, 2004 10:48:41 GMT -5
A decent number of the exit polls were close -- Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. But some were off 6-7 points -- like Ohio and Florida, and some were way off -- like New Hampshire.
I gotta say that I was depressed leaving work yesterday, and even Bush/Cheney's cautions that the tallies weren't matching the exit polls didn't improve my mood. Gosh, even Fox News calling Ohio first didn't help too much.
Like I said yesterday, something really interesting/wrong was going on with the exit polls. It'll be interesting to see all the hand-wringing this time around.
|
|
|
Post by showcase on Nov 3, 2004 16:24:19 GMT -5
Although the number were clearly skewed in a number of places, after 2000 I thought it safe to assume that the numbers correllated in a meaningful way with reality. It was certainly true in some states, but to be so wrong in the two states where it really mattered after 2000? I'd prefer the networks did some soul-searching over handwringing.
|
|
Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 18,427
|
Post by Nevada Hoya on Nov 3, 2004 16:44:58 GMT -5
I smell a conspiracy.
|
|