Official Election Day Thread

[jerseyhoya34]

Please post here so we can keep everything in one place and have a continuous discussion.

From my standpoint, I think this election has turned in Kerry's favor. He has commanded the discourse for most of this week, and there have been several negative news dumps for Bush with the result that his ship has steered off course. That doesn't bode well for Bush in terms of those folks who will decide over the weekend, and it also ensures (barring a dramatic change today) that the Sunday talk shows will talk up Kerry's chances.

[jerseyhoya34]

Here's an interesting article on the evangelical vote:
www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-evangelicals27oct27,0,2472235.story?coll=la-home-headlines

"A poll published last week by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 70% of self-described evangelicals or born-again Christians planned to vote for the president, down from 74% in the same survey three weeks earlier. That was not only a slight decline, but lower than the 80% to 90% support that Bush campaign officials had been forecasting."

"An estimated 80% of the evangelical vote went to Bush in 2000. But Bush's senior political strategist, Karl Rove, said after the 2000 election that the president might have won the race against Democrat Al Gore by a comfortable margin had 4 million more evangelicals gone to the polls rather than sitting out the election."

I think this is a potentially interesting story, although I am not sure how important the evangelical vote is in the context of this election. I don't know much about midwestern politics, but I think that issues and policy matter more in the context of voting decisions, which this article seems to affirm. Bush and Rove would be better advised to focus on key Republican buzzwords like liberal, raise taxes, and Massachusetts. The evangelical vote is more important, I would think, in the red states, and if the strategy is to GOTV in those spots, by all means go ahead.

[jerseyhoya34]

Another thread starter might be a recent Gallup survey* in Florida that shows that 30% of Florida has already voted, and, of this 30%, 51% voted for Kerry and 43% voted for Bush. Although this may reflect a Kerry lead in Florida, it also speaks to the energy that Kerry voters feel in battlegrounds. Gallup surveyed about 1600 voters, so this sample of voters who have already voted is in the neighborhood of 480. While a small sample, this is still sufficient by most standards to draw some conclusions.

* indicates that Gallup is Matthew Dowd's favorite polling organization. Matthew Dowd is a senior strategist for BC04.

[showcase]

Looking at the bellwether indicators, it seems Kerry is favored:



It appears that 400,000 Nickelodean Kids love Kerry...

An unusual opinion poll that has correctly predicted the winner of the last four presidential elections has given Democratic challenger Kerry 57 percent against 43 percent for Bush, according to results released Wednesday.

Nickelodeon, a unit of Viacom Inc., has organized its poll every election since 1988, and has a 100 percent record of picking the winner.

www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/20/campaign.kids.reut/



Meanwhile, roughly 330,000 Weekly Reader kids love Bush...

Weekly Reader schoolchildren have been very accurate predictors of the presidential election since voting began in 1956. Historically, Weekly Reader kids in grades 4 and up have been 100 percent accurate in predicting the election outcome.

My understanding is that they actually missed an election in the 60s, but they appear to have been pretty accurate.

www.wrcmedia.com/news/133.asp



Obviously, however, the most important predictor is the Skins, who lost their last home game before the election, giving Kerry the nod...

John Kerry supporters have a welcome omen for their candidate: The Green Bay Packers defeated the Washington Redskins on Sunday.

If history holds, the 28-14 result portends a victory for Kerry on Tuesday because the result of the Redskins' final home game before the presidential election has always accurately predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1913509


If you've heard of any others, drop 'em here while their still relevant.

[showcase]

And, for those who are interested, here's how electoral-vote.com sees the race turning out. Kerry's in blue, Bush in red:



That translates into a Kerry electoral win, 291 to 242, with "solid" states for each candidate in dark colors, "weak" states in lighter colors, and "close" states in outline. Based on this forecast, the predicted super-tight race in Nevada (displayed as a colorless tie) thus apparently won't mean anything.

Results are based on most recent polling, 2:1 break in undecideds in favor of challenger, and Nader et al drawing no more than 1% to 2%.

Here's the link to the full page:

www.electoral-vote3.com/pred/index.html

[Joe Hoya]

Another indicator leans towards Bush - his mask sold better for Halloween this year. I don't have any stats or an article, but it's been widely reported.

Also, showcase, from what I've been told by campaign people and unbiased observers (people from Nevada), Bush is more likely to win there, and quite possibly New Mexico as well. Pennsylvania (unfortunately) isn't going to be as tight as predicted, and Kerry will likely win there. However, giving Florida to Kerry is likely an error.

All this means, of course, is that we know nothing.

[thebin]

At the risk of stating the blatantly obvious, Kerry just about has to win Florida to do it. Bush is leading more polls in Florida than he is behind in, including an 8 point lead in the recent Quinnipiac. Kerry's only signifigant Fla lead is in the Fox poll. How do you like that? A friend of mine is in Florida in a last minute get out the vote campaign and reports that he and his compadres are quite confident that Bush will take the Sunshine state. We'll see, but more than ever, the winner of Florida will be hard to stop, and I like Bush's chances there just fine at this point. Bush will lose Pa, but if he takes Ohio and Florida, its done early.

[jerseyhoya34]

I agree with thebin. This thing is going to come down to Florida, and whoever wins it is in the driver's seat. So, I think Bush needs Florida as much as Kerry does, as it is going to be hard for Bush to scrape together enough states to offset Florida and New Hampshire. Likewise, Kerry won't have much to work with if he loses Florida, assuming that OH is officially out of play, which may or may not be correct.

I think thebin's analysis of polls, however, is sloppy. He points out Bush's 8 point lead in one survey, which is true, and finds that Kerry's only significant lead is in the Fox poll, which is also true. What he fails to mention, however, is that Bush's only significant lead is in that 8 point margin poll, as the other polls show the state going to either Bush or Kerry by 3 points or less in each case. Typically, statisticians throw out the outliers to some degree. So, doing that, which including a poll that has Bush at +4, and we have a 48.3-47.7 Bush lead, which is statistically insignificant.

Other evidence, though fun and exciting, is also anecdotal. One thing about campaigns is that the faithful, including yours truly, fall victim to groupthink. Your buddies believe in the cause, so they're predisposed to exclude countervailing claims in their calculus and more likely to make pro-Republican conclusions than your average social scientist.

As for Joe, see my comments on groupthink. I am not aware of what your affiliation is with the campaign, but suffice to say that no campaign employee who wants to keep a job will go around and tout negative polling numbers. While also informative, I take it with a grain of salt.

A lot of these battlegrounds are very, very close, so turnout is going to be a huge factor. Some have talked today about how we may get 120 million+ to the polls, which tends to favor Kerry. However, weather in the midwest may take a state like Ohio out of play. Some are saying that PA will be closer than expected due to weather, but it looks like the weather will affect the western portions of the state, which are relatively more Republican than Philly and elsewhere.

The final trial heats from 2000 are as follows: www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm#LATEST

It just goes to show that turnout in close races and GOTV are what is important.

Anyway, may tomorrow bring a conclusion to the Presidential race. I don't want to see another contested election. Only two of these polls had Gore in the lead, and we know what happened there. Suffice to say that national polls and even state polls tend to favor more rightish elements because not everyone can be reached by phone. Some poor folks may not have a phone, and some yuppies only have cell phones. Additionally, the likely voter methodology is another topic for discussion.

[Joe Hoya]

It goes without saying that anything heard from campaign people should be taken with a grain of salt. That's why I specified who I heard it from. I also have no reason to believe that they are only getting positive information. I don't think they would lie to the volunteers who are already committed to their candidate, so I have every reason to believe that what I was told is true.

Also, I've been kicking around the electoral-vote.com page for the last month or so, and if you go to the "averaged polls" link on the right side, below the main map, you'll see that while the most recent polls predict a Kerry win, the average of the most recent polls combined shows Bush in the lead. What it tells us, like always, is...we know nothing.

Should we do a toss-up prediction contest on here? Like, assign a candidate to PA, OH, FL, IA, WI, NM, NV, and NH, and we'll see who gets the most. Here's mine:

Bush - FL, WI, NM, NV
Kerry - PA, OH, NH, IA

[jerseyhoya34]

Joe, do you see this thing trending toward Kerry because that's what your predictions seem to suggest? Conventional wisdom says that if Kerry takes 2 battlegrounds, Bush needs two of the midwestern tossups (MN, WI, IA) to win, as NM switching is balanced by NH.

What is your electoral college breakdown in other words? FWIW, I am running with Kerry receiving 286 EVs.

[david]

Kerry will win OH, PA, WI, MN, NH, FL, NM
Bush will win NV

Kerry with OVER 300 electoral votes

[jerseyhoya34]

david said:

Kerry will win OH, PA, WI, MN, NH, FL, NM
Bush will win NV

Kerry with OVER 300 electoral votes

You're great! My caution stems from the weather forecast for OH, which is not good for Kerry at all.

[Joe Hoya]

I had Bush 276-262 the other day when I did this, but I gave him Iowa. Take it away...and we have a draw.

[CAHoya07]

On a less serious note (since I have a feeling this thread could get a little TOO serious tomorrow), anybody ever think of doing a NCAA tournament type bracket contest for the election? Of the 50 states (or, well, 51 states including DC), have a draft and pick who is going to win in each one. The first picks will obviously be the obvious states (CA, NY for Kerry, TX for Bush), but then it can get fun towards the end. Equal amount of picks for each person. Winner of the most correctly guessed states wins the prize.

Problem with this, however, is that most picks won't really matter till the end. My roommate and I, clearly biased by our pro-Kerry stances, currently have a bet going between us about who's gonna win the following 8 battleground states:

INDECISION 2004


My States----------------Roommate

Florida for Kerry--------Pennsylvania for Kerry

Ohio for Kerry -----------Wisconsin for Kerry

New Mexico for Kerry---New Hampshire for Bush

Colorado for Bush-------Virginia for Bush



WINNER GETS ETERNAL PRIDE AND $2.


Debate at your leisure, in between cheap shots and low blows. Dare I incur the wrath of the Republicans in the thread, GO KERRY!

[Joe Hoya]

You consider Virginia a battleground state?

I hope that's wishful Kerry-supporter thinking there, and not an actual opinion.

[CAHoya07]

Joe said:

You consider Virginia a battleground state?

I hope that's wishful Kerry-supporter thinking there, and not an actual opinion.

Yes, it's most likely the former. Probably should have put Iowa in its place, but what the hell, we did this in like 2 minutes. At least we don't have it for Kerry in our prediction. As optimistic as we are, we also have to be realistic. Then again, and I'm not predicting anything, who knows what surprises we may have in store for us in the next 24 hours...

[showcase]

For what it's worth, the polling suggests that Virginia is not nearly as certain for Dubya as most would think. A high turnout in NoVa, Richmond, etc. could even things up for the Dems. I'm not saying that Virginia will definitely go for Kerry, but it's hardly a lock for Dubya either.

[Boz]

showcase said:

For what it's worth, the polling suggests that Virginia is not nearly as certain for Dubya as most would think. A high turnout in NoVa, Richmond, etc. could even things up for the Dems. I'm not saying that Virginia will definitely go for Kerry, but it's hardly a lock for Dubya either.

I voted this morning in Arlington and, while this is not at all scientific, just thought I'd throw in that it took me nearly twice as long as it did in 2000. That doesn't necessarily mean high turnout, it could be any number of things, including more people (like myself) not being granted any time off this year and wanting to get it over with and not have to be late for work. Last election we were given up to two hours to be late without having to use personal time; this year we got nothing & I didn't want to lose any sick/vacation hours to vote. However, it certainly "looked" like higher turnout to the naked eye at 7 a.m.

(I still think Election Day, at least in Presidential years, should be a national holiday, but that probably won't happen. I'm also campaigning for the day after the Super Bowl to be a national holiday/day of purging.)

Again, not scientific, but I saw more people with Bush/Cheney buttons and hats, etc. (voters, not electioneers) than Kerry/Edwards in line today. I will say, on the other hand, that the Kerry/Edwards people were more visible in the days leading up to the election (though that's not necessarily a good thing - I think a number of people annoyed by the "flu shot bullhorn man" at the Metro the last couple of days might have voted against Kerry just because that guy was such a pain in the butt - and clearly in need of a tinfoil hat; even people handing out Kerry flyers were rolling their eyes at that guy).

Anyway, this is not to say one way or another what's going to happen, just some fun anecdotal tales from NoVa. Personally, I think Virginia is going to be a bit closer than expected, but probably will still go for Bush. Actually, I think the biggest evidence that Virginia is not quite close enough to be "battleground" is how exceedingly polite the campaigners for both sides were to everyone waiting in line to vote this morning. Somehow I get the feeling they're going to be a little more aggressive in Ohio and F-L-A.

We shall see. Good luck to both sides today. Clearly I'm rooting for one more than the other, but I'm hoping - against all reasonable expectations - that we get a relatively clean outcome.

Wouldn't it be fun though if it all came down to Hawaii? Not sure if that's possible with the electoral math, but I wouldn't mind sending all the lawyers halfway around the world and ridding the Lower 48 of them for a few days (though I'd prefer if it was Alaska that was close so we could send them there just on principle).

[WilsonBlvdHoya]

Boz said:

I voted this morning in Arlington and, while this is not at all scientific, just thought I'd throw in that it took me nearly twice as long as it did in 2000. That doesn't necessarily mean high turnout, it could be any number of things, including more people (like myself) not being granted any time off this year and wanting to get it over with and not have to be late for work. Last election we were given up to two hours to be late without having to use personal time; this year we got nothing & I didn't want to lose any sick/vacation hours to vote. However, it certainly "looked" like higher turnout to the naked eye at 7 a.m.

(I still think Election Day, at least in Presidential years, should be a national holiday, but that probably won't happen. I'm also campaigning for the day after the Super Bowl to be a national holiday/day of purging.)

Again, not scientific, but I saw more people with Bush/Cheney buttons and hats, etc. (voters, not electioneers) than Kerry/Edwards in line today. I will say, on the other hand, that the Kerry/Edwards people were more visible in the days leading up to the election (though that's not necessarily a good thing - I think a number of people annoyed by the "flu shot bullhorn man" at the Metro the last couple of days might have voted against Kerry just because that guy was such a pain in the butt - and clearly in need of a tinfoil hat; even people handing out Kerry flyers were rolling their eyes at that guy).

Anyway, this is not to say one way or another what's going to happen, just some fun anecdotal tales from NoVa. Personally, I think Virginia is going to be a bit closer than expected, but probably will still go for Bush. Actually, I think the biggest evidence that Virginia is not quite close enough to be "battleground" is how exceedingly polite the campaigners for both sides were to everyone waiting in line to vote this morning. Somehow I get the feeling they're going to be a little more aggressive in Ohio and F-L-A.

We shall see. Good luck to both sides today. Clearly I'm rooting for one more than the other, but I'm hoping - against all reasonable expectations - that we get a relatively clean outcome.

Wouldn't it be fun though if it all came down to Hawaii? Not sure if that's possible with the electoral math, but I wouldn't mind sending all the lawyers halfway around the world and ridding the Lower 48 of them for a few days (though I'd prefer if it was Alaska that was close so we could send them there just on principle).

Hey, Boz! More Arlington insights: Mrs. WBH and I got in line at our polling place at 6 AM to vote at 7:15!! Turnout clearly heavy; most folks subdued/quiet at that hour. I saw very few Bush buttons but lots of Kerry volunteers manning the Metro stop and street corners. Kerry may have pulled his organization from VA but the Arlington Dems. are always very organized and active. Turnout in VA could be as high as 60-70% with local turnout as high as 80%. Bush will win VA but maybe something like 53-55 to Kerry's 44-46...

No predictions nationally but if it's close, 2000 will look like a tea party--sad to say. And it could very well come down to HI or NH or NM for that matter....

[Nevada Hoya]

I voted in Las Vegas last Friday in early voting. I guess they have early voting so you don't have to stand in line too long on election day. Well, I won't have to stand in line today, but we had an hour's wait on Friday. The media is saying that of the 800,000 voters likely to vote in Nevada, 400,000 had already voted in early elections. The candidates were serious about getting the Nevada vote with Kerry visiting the state seven times, and Cheney here yesterday. Sean Penn was going door to door in Las Vegas yesterday on behalf of Kerry. Local polls have Bush leading; the majority of his support coming from rural and Northern Nevada.