Bush Blowout in November

[kchoya]

Dick Morris in the NY Post, continuing a theme he's had the last couple of months:

www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/21657.htm

I wish I could share his outlook, but I still think it's too close and too ealry for Republicans to start getting cocky -- though the numbers are heading the right direction.

[showcase]

I think Morris suffers from the same hubris that afflicts all policial pundits and advisors: the belief that people really are paying close attention to their various efforts and ploys, so any change likely reflects the genuis of this or that particular approach. I don't doubt that the Bush campaign has a solid gambit in attempting to define Kerry for the electorate over the next six weeks or so, but I'm not convinced that it (or any other tactic) will play that big a role in shaping how the average American will vote in November. All this dwelling over the genuis of this ad or exploiting that gaffe presupposes that anyone is aware of the ad and/or gaffe it is predicated on.

I tend to think that Kerry's relative drop CAN fairly be attributed to two macro-level items: the Madrid bombings and perception of improvements in the economy. I think swing voters who were turned off by the Iraq war may have rethought their positions in the wake of renewed bombings, and those that were inclined to elect Kerry based on the economy's performance may have had second thoughts recently.

Even if Morris is correct, I think this election will be close. I don't see either candidate having a large, consolidated base of support. Rather, I think people are generically pro-Bush or anti-Bush at this point, and a lot can happen between now and November to affect how they feel about their President.

Just my $.02.

[SaxaCD]

Morris has always been a big fan of Clinton-type "triangulation" strategy and running from the middle. It's just one of the reasons he clashed with the president's liberal-shrew wife (who, in her latest incarnation, is now trying to recast herself as the moderate she's never been). So for Morris, Kerry is the anti-Clinton. He sees a centrist Rebublican running against a far-left Democrat, and that's what motivates his point of view. I still think the national media's partisanship and Bush's own political foibles will make this a very close race, but I think it would have been a fairly easy victory for a guy like Lieberman (who I probably would have voted for in the general election). spoiled New England country club liberals are a tough sell to real people, even more so than spoiled New England Republicans.

[thebin]

I don't share Morris's confidence either, but do share saxacd's feeling that Kerry is at the end of the day a really tough sell in too many key areas. The closer it comes to November, the more things like his gazzilionairhess wife is going to rub people the wrong way. She was actually quoted yesterday as saying that her tax return was her business, and not John's business. That kind of aristocratic, European seperate bedrooms, seperate finances, seperate friends, business partnership more than a marriage thing doesn't play well where it counts. If I were running Kerry's camp, Theresa Heinz is my biggest concern right now. Sounds silly this far away- but wait for the conventions. The Bushes and Kennedy's do a good job of not appearing to be aristocrats, I don't think it is going to be easy for Thersa or Kerry to pull off that feat. Their wealth and upbringing is of another caliber of privilege than Bush or even the wealthier Kennedys. Stupid things like this start counting more and more to gut voters come November- even if they never admit it. Presidents don't normally unload their $10 million villa in Italy to a left wing hollywood actor pal right before an election and capture the swing vote. Then again...nobody has ever tried.

[showcase]

thebin said:

I don't share Morris's confidence either, but do share saxacd's feeling that Kerry is at the end of the day a really tough sell in too many key areas.

You mean he's a tougher sell than this guy?