GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 17, 2007 11:59:49 GMT -5
All nice things said about Memphis' offense, it is predicated on being quicker than your opponent and operating in space. The biggest advantage the Hoyas have is if they can make this a halfcourt game, all that space goes away. The Hoyas are just bigger than any opponent Memphis has faced and the Tigers don't have the consistent outside shot to stretch the defense.
So if the Hoyas can keep Roy out of foul trouble and make Memphis operate in the half court they have a good chance.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2007 12:02:23 GMT -5
We're better than them.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 17, 2007 12:06:57 GMT -5
Couple of thoughts:
1. HoyafanNY is right: Memphis' strength is forcing turnovers and O rebounding. They are our weaknesses. If we limit them, we probably win.
2. Regarding MCI's point on NBA players, I think it is pretty close. Both Hibbert and Dorsey will make the NBA, but Hibbert will be far better. Douglas Roberts is ahead of DaJuan for now, but DaJuan has more potential. We don't have anyone to match up with Rose, but I'm not sure yet how to feel about Austin and Chris in the pros. Dozier and Taggert have a lot of potential as well.
I think they have an edge in overall athleticism, but it isn't anything I'd predict a winner on...
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Hoya50
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Post by Hoya50 on Dec 17, 2007 12:24:01 GMT -5
Memphis' offense isn't playground. They space well and pass well. It is dribble drive based, but I think it is kind of silly to call any dribble drive based offense "playground." They run the same offense as Duke, basically. And there are some minimal similarities to our offense at a basic level -- neither team runs many plays and are more of a read and react type of offense. How each offense tends to put pressure on the defense (primarily) is different though. i guess we'll agree to disagree. memphis couldn't space well enough to figure out that junk triangle and 2 in that miserable to watch usc game. i'm not knocking memphis, some play better with little organization on the court. but, in the games i've seen them play, they exhibited the following: 1. lots of dribbling 2. lots of standing around 3. few if any screens playground basketball. when playing a team like this, a defense needs to stay on their man. there's less to worry about because the offense presents less options to defend. they do have some individual talents that can take over a game. but, rose and rd will have to create their own offense. it won't come as a benefit from an offensive set.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 17, 2007 12:34:57 GMT -5
That's pretty much how Duke has played in the non-Redick years. When you have superior one on one talent, isolation ball isn't the worst play. It just isn't pretty.
Where Memphis struggles and Duke rarely has is that Memphis has not hit their outside shots or FTs.
I absolutely prefer our offense for two reasons:
1) I think offenses that rely on talent superiority are flawed. You blow out weak teams by a ton but when you meet someone better/equal you hope you out-execute them. You're basically giving up on strategy.
2) It limits the types of players that are successful in an offense.
But I do think a Duke-style of offense can incorporate quite a bit of teamwork, even if they don't move as much without the ball. Duke plays very fundamental basketball, and that offense is much easier to learn and implement than ours. Also, if you recruit to it as Memphis does and Duke did until a couple of years ago, it can really emphasize your strengths.
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Dec 17, 2007 12:39:32 GMT -5
I only saw them in the USC game where they busted out the triangle and 2, but I saw Memphis with a lot of open jumpers that they missed. For someone who's watched them more than I have this year, is that characteristic of the team? I remember them being a pretty solid shooting team last year, but from what I saw, Doneal Mack was their only really solid outside shooter. If that's the case, you'd have to assume we go zone all day and just funnel people into Roy.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Dec 17, 2007 13:07:09 GMT -5
Will someone please go on that memphis board and clear up the ridiculousness that is happening over their. they are questioning Roy's ability because of his hard statistics- ok fine, but he averaging only 23 min a game and adjusted for pace (according to pomeroy) he has the 235 best offensive rating, compare that to Memphis: dorsey at 494 and rose out side the top 500.
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chep3
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by chep3 on Dec 17, 2007 13:11:23 GMT -5
It's funny though. On that board, they go off for like 15 posts about jgalt's comment about Memphis symbolizing a trend in basketball, and chalk it up to his ignorance about Memphis. They talk about how if you really watched their basketball team, you'd understand how complex their offense really is. But then, they look at Roy's per game stats and then make conclusions about what kind of player he is. Good to see that 10 minute attention span at work there.
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Post by strummer8526 on Dec 17, 2007 13:25:17 GMT -5
I'm really afraid of one thing that could give us trouble: Roy in foul trouble or getting tired, and Macklin sees big minutes. Roy will handle Dorsey. I don't know about Macklin. And it would allow their D to cover our outside shooting b/c there is virtually no reason to pack it down low against Macklin. If it happens, I'd love for him to prove me wrong, but just a fear.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Dec 17, 2007 13:40:06 GMT -5
while that is a legit fear, it makes me feel better that we can adjust style's when roy is out of the game. no one on memphis really has a post game so i don't worry about ticket defensively, except that he is going to have to work hard boxing out. on offense, we can put him in the high post with summers, freeman and rainmaker as our primary scorers. that seems to be what JTIII has been trying to do early on, get the guys ready to adjust to when roy isn't in the game and we may end up playing at a faster pace. obviously it's not ideal, but we've demonstrated that we can do it. i just can't wait till saturday. go hoyas!!!
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McBricks
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
What Rocks.
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Post by McBricks on Dec 17, 2007 13:45:34 GMT -5
Roll Call.
Who's going to the game? I get there Friday afternoon and am hopeful that there will be a meet up spot Friday night and then again Saturday morning. Anyone know what the plans are?
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theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by theexorcist on Dec 17, 2007 13:57:25 GMT -5
I'll be there*.
* Assuming that American gets me from National to St. Louis and then to Memphis on Friday. I'll also accept any prayers flying back Christmas Eve morning via Chicago.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 17, 2007 14:03:56 GMT -5
I think we'll have a lot of back door's and lay ups off of their defense.
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jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by jgalt on Dec 17, 2007 14:52:01 GMT -5
Im so happy that i caused that board to have fits.
some what related: Lets think for a second about the term selfish (i keep this only to basketball). We say a player is unselfish when he distributes the ball, helps other team mates, and plays a team game. but isnt this really the MOST selfish thing one can do. ill explain: every players goal is to win (or at least it should be) and he cannot do this on his own so to act in his best self interest he must play team ball. a player who hogs the ball and attempts to win the game on his own is ultimately acting against his self interest because it is unlikely to lead his team to victory. so really the most team orientated players are all selfish, where the player who are often labeled selfish are really just stupid. youll notice that i never used the words selfish or unselfish in my post that is now giving the memphis fans fits; i said that they play "playground" ball (although i was mostly characterizing a general trend and have noted that i did not mean that memphis only plays playground ball but mearly that they play a game closer to playground that we do).
as for roys rebound rate: there are fewer offensive rebounds in a gtown game because we shoot very well and on the defensive end teams are forced to shoot from out side and many missed shots bounce 10 or 12 feet out. this is not always true and roy could do a better job. but here are some statistics for the memphis boys: according to pomeroy roy has the 35 best offensive rebounding percentage in the country and the 428 best deffensive percentage. dorsey is the 32 best defensive rebounder though so the battle for GU offensive boards will be interesting.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 17, 2007 15:48:35 GMT -5
I just posted this on the memphis board, but I thought I should throw it up over here as well, as it's probably the most in-depth thinking I've done on this. It was in response to a Memphis poster having a hard time seeing Roy's value if he can "only" pull down 7 rebounds/game.
----- There are a lot of reasons for the raw numbers being low -- as mentioned earlier in this thread, Hibbert has been playing only 25 minutes per game. Now while some might see that as evidence that he can't complete a full game, stamina-wise, a closer look shows none of G'town's starters averaging more than 26 or so, and nine players overall averaging at least 17 mpg. The coaching staff has put a significant focus on building out the team depth and getting our bench contributors a lot of experience in game situations. While some of our fans would rather see the starters getting a lot more run, I feel pretty fine about our four returning starters from last year's final four team being comfortable enough in the system, and I love getting the chance to see the rest of the team develop.
Outside of the minutes per game limitation on stats, there's also the question of game tempo. The Hoyas average 62 possessions per game, while the Tigers average 74.
So doing quick math, if Roy had his same performance level playing 35 (or to be conservative, let's say 32) minutes per game, at Memphis's tempo, his production would be multiplied by tempo (x 74/62) and then by minutes per game (x 32/24), so his 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks become:
20.4 points 11.2 rebounds 3.5 blocks (at 35 minutes per game, those are even higher)
Finally, there are two specific reasons that the rebounding stats are lower than they otherwise might be, even in a larger sample size.
1. Roy's rebounding strength is on the offensive boards, and GU shoots over 60% from 2-point range and over 40% from three-point range, significantly limiting the number of offensive rebounds available.
2. On the defensive side of the ball, rebounding is not a focus for Roy (outside of three-point shots). GU allows opponents to shoot only 38% from two-point range, third lowest in the country. A big reason for this is because of the 2.2 shots per game blocked by Roy, and because of the additional ten or so shots that he alters. His main job on defense is to make sure opposing guards and forwards don't get good looks in the paint, and so the defensive rebounding duties fall to the Hoyas guards and forwards for the most part.
Hope this helps, because as you say, the stats don't lie.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 17, 2007 15:55:23 GMT -5
Great Post, THB.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Dec 17, 2007 15:58:38 GMT -5
That was a great post over there, THB. I sort of chuckled at the original post because its a typical "I'm looking at tempo-sensitive statistics and they show ..." That completely ignores the value of Roy Hibbert. We have very few possessions per game (usually - FL's turning point analysis aside for the second) - Hibbert uses a great deal of those possessions and uses them very effectively. Moreover, with his blocks and rebounds he also CREATES possessions for us - making him the most important player when he's on the court.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 17, 2007 16:05:02 GMT -5
Thanks guys. I know that we've all been down the tempo-free road a bunch, but looking at the FG% and FG% allowed stats, it hit me that we have maybe the fewest opportunities on the offensive glass, where Roy focuses on boarding.
On the defensive side, I feel like Roy probably leads the nation in "Defensive rebounds created" by the way he blocks and alters shots, but I suppose there's no way to keep track of those stats.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 17, 2007 16:42:17 GMT -5
Nice explanation to non-believers, THB.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Dec 17, 2007 16:43:51 GMT -5
Apparently his explanation was garbage and Hibbert is holding us back ... its fun to hear the informed fans of a Tier 4 school tell us we're stupid.
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