Another Are-you-worried-because thread (KenPom)

[canissaxa]

Yes, it's another AYWB thread. And I'm sure that it will be subject to its inevitable share of vitriol, but here goes nothing.

I know that it's early in the season and the sample size is small and we're still figuring out how to (pick your favorite) click on offense/find our stroke from the line/integrate the deeper bench, but after 6 games, I'm beginning to be a bit worried that we aren't inching up Ken Pomeroy's ratings a bit more.

I discovered his site (and this one) in December of last year and was reassured that the team was still in good shape when we weren't ranked and had some seemingly bad early losses. His stats kept me reassured as I was out of the country until January and couldn't see much of the team's play in person or on TV.

This early basketball season finds me out of the country again and so I turned to KenPom.com (his stats are at the same site even if his commentary is not) expecting to chortle over the ridiculous offensive officiency. And I found myself with less to laugh about than I expected. We're ranked #35 on raw offensive efficiency and #36 on raw defensive efficiency and #41 overall.

Now in fairness, our raw officiency efficiency is almost indistinguishable from this point last year, so maybe I'm expecting too much too soon. And our defensive efficiency is considerably better and more consistent. But last year, we had some truly attrocious offensive outings (81 and 87 against Oregon and Duke respectively) combined with some that demonstrated our potential (151 and 128 against James Madison and Fairfield respectively). And I think most people would agree that our competition to this point in the season last year was stronger than it has been this year.

I've read some posts that indicate we aren't running the Princeton elements of the Georgetown offense very much this year--possibly due to the lack of Jeff's passing out of the high post--which would hurt efficiency. And certainly, the early bout of brick-flu on free throws doesn't help.

For those of you who have seen the team play, what's your take? Should we expect the team to get back to the offensive stratosphere in which they resided last year or is it more realistic to expect regression to the mean on offense combined with a better defense?

Or is there a possibility that we're actually a little overrated this year at #4? After all, the only ranked teams in the AP or the Coaches Poll that rate below us in Ken Pomeroy's system are Oregon and Nova. And I think the next closest team is (interestingly) Memphis at #32.

So I don't mean to hate on the team--I'm just looking for some reassurance. Please by all means, tell me why I shouldn't be worried.

[Filo]

I think you addressed your own concerns for the most part:

- it's early in the season
- the sample size is small
- we're still figuring out how to click on offense / find our stroke from the line / integrate the deeper bench
- our raw officiency efficiency is almost indistinguishable from this point last year
- our defensive efficiency is considerably better and more consistent.

As for the point that that our competition to this point in the season last year was stronger than it has been this year -- I honestly don't think it matters that much at this stage of the season. The players are trying to adjust to not having JG around, they are adjusting to the new guys joining the rotation, and the new guys are learning the system. So, although the level of competition obviously has some impact, I think it is more the type of teams / defenses they the team is facing at this stage. Fairfield is a prime example -- no one would say that they are a very good team, but they played in a style that gave the Hoyas some trouble, which is just what you want this early in the season. A great learning experience for BE time.

[arlingtonhoya05]

I'm worried, but not because of KenPom's Rankings. We can not rebound, and unlike getting into an offensive flow, and learning to win without Jeff, rebounding has nothing to do with learning our system. There is no reason why our team should be giving up several offensive rebounds a game to smaller and inferior comp. 62 offensive rebounds through 6 games, that is awful.

[KHoyaNYC]

I'm not worried. I've decided that this is just how it is going to be with a team like us that runs a deliberate princeton offense that takes time for players to get used to. We'll get better. We'll probably click on all cylinders beginning mid January. Until then, we'll have rough patches like last year, luckily we have enough more talent and experience this year (even without Jeff) that it shouldn't cost us many losses, if any.

[Eurostar]

the big difference between this year and last year is that this year we have a final 4 experienced team. without that big game experience we might have dropped that last one at Bama and Fairfield could have gone either way. To me right now we are way ahead of last year... and some of us still think we are in the Esherick years when our team wouldnt improve over the course of the year/years. We are going like 9 deep right now and its gonna take until February for us to start playing up to our potential (like it does every year). Honestly I wouldnt rather have it any other way.

[GUJook97]

I agree, I am more happy about the fact that we are comfortably 9 deep at this point than anything else. This is college basketball. You basically start over every season. Freeman and Wright have been much sharper earlier this season. We need to be deep more than last year because we dont have Jeff to bail us out.

[Deleted]

You need reassurance? What are you, 12?

The Hoyas under III ALWAYS START SLOW. They've ALWAYS looked bad a few games during the early stages of the season. Go back and rewatch every October-December stretch during III's tenure because its like this EVERY year. If you want "reassurance," rewatch the past TWO seasons... slow starts leading to deep runs in March.

The fact remains, no matter how they start, they ALWAYS finish strong. III ALWAYS has the guys fully prepared for the difficult road ahead, and to start freaking out because of a KenPom stat or two is beyond ridiculous.

Of course, overreactions like this have become par for the course the past few years, we should probably be used to it by now...

[Boz]

It's possible that my work life has jaded me juuuusssst a little bit, but I tend not to worry about anything -- particularly any statistic -- that has the word "efficiency" attached to it.

And by "not worry," I mean to say "retch at the mere sight of."

No offense to Pomeroy.

[JohnJacquesLayup]

buffalohoya said:

The fact remains, no matter how they start, they ALWAYS finish strong.

Didn't we start 8-3 BE and finish 8-8 BE JTIII's first season?

[capcenterhoya]

While our offense has not exactly been dominant a la last year, at least its been consistently decent. Last year, 6 of the team's 7 losses occurred in games where the team did not reach an offensive efficiency of 103. This year, the team has yet to put up an offensive efficiency below 103. Granted the level of comp has not been the greatest so far, but I think while this team will not be the offensive juggernaut that last year's team was, it will be more consistent because if a player's having a bad game, we have subs who can step up. There's no excuse this year to watch a player go 1-10 in a big game because we have no depth (yes I'm calling you out Dajuan for that Ohio State performance)

[Deleted]

johnjacqueslayup said:

Didn't we start 8-3 BE and finish 8-8 BE JTIII's first season?

JTIII's first year with an underclass-heavy team? Yes, you're right. But they also followed it up with a decent BET (losing to a top-15 UConn) and a good NIT run. All things considered, I'd call that a strong finish.

I consider the past two seasons much more illustrative.

[JS]

johnjacqueslayup said:

buffalohoya said:

The fact remains, no matter how they start, they ALWAYS finish strong.

Didn't we start 8-3 BE and finish 8-8 BE JTIII's first season?

The trend discussed in this thread is consistent with Coach Thompson's entire head coaching career. Start slow. Tinker with different lineups and rotations. Possibly lose a game or two to what appears to be inferior competition. Improve as the season goes on. Play your best basketball in conference play.

2000-01 - start 4-7, finish 16-10.
2001-02 - start 4-7, finish 16-10.
2002-03 - start 4-7, finish 16-11.
2003-04 - start 6-6, finish 20-7.

[Cambridge]

A few comments.

First, we are running an insanely deep rotation right now. At least for JTIII. Look to last year, there were people wondering why we didn't go beyond the 6 or 7th man on the bench. Now, we're consistently running 8-9, sometimes 10 deep in most games. That is huge. The depth we are gaining now with these close games will pay huge dividends. Want an illustration? In the Bama game, JTIII never panicked, but kept in the deep rotation even though we seemed to be struggling late. When there were about four minutes to go, he slipped the starting five back into the game and we ripped off a 15-2 run to ice the game.

Second, JTIII has said in several interviews that the focus this preseason has been almost exclusively on the Defensive side of the ball. Hence the fairly significant improvement on the defensive efficiency stats. I imagine as he shifts his attention to the offensive side, we'll see a dramatic improvement on that side.

[lichoya68]

WE WILL BE JUST FINE TRUST COACH I THINK HE KNOWS WHAT HES DOING YUP GO HOYAS SINK THE DOLPHINS

[JohnJacquesLayup]

buffalohoya said:

johnjacqueslayup said:

Didn't we start 8-3 BE and finish 8-8 BE JTIII's first season?

JTIII's first year with an underclass-heavy team? Yes, you're right. But they also followed it up with a decent BET (losing to a top-15 UConn) and a good NIT run. All things considered, I'd call that a strong finish.

I consider the past two seasons much more illustrative.

I know I was just giving you a hard time. We depended on Freshman who understandably ran out of gas in their first BE season. You're right, we played UCONN pretty tough if I remember correctly.

[Coast2CoastHoya]

Others have alluded to it, but to address your direct concern - about the kenpom numbers - I'm not worried because, (1) as you said, raw offensive and defensive numbers are at or better than this point last year, and (2) III hasn't solidified his lineup and the starters aren't getting as many minutes consistently as they likely will once the BEC season gets in full swing. If numbers don't improve by mid-January, I'll be worried, but right now I'm cautiously optimistic that this year's team will have great success.

[Hoya06]

I have been cautiously optimistic about this team since halftime of the Vandy game. That being said, I look at flights to SA on a daily basis.

[dchoyafan]

I have been cautiously optimistic about this team since halftime of the Vandy game. That being said, I look at flights to SA on a daily basis.

? I guess I missed that game somehow.... ?

[dchoyafan]

buffalohoya said:

You need reassurance? What are you, 12?

The Hoyas under III ALWAYS START SLOW. They've ALWAYS looked bad a few games during the early stages of the season. Go back and rewatch every October-December stretch during III's tenure because its like this EVERY year. If you want "reassurance," rewatch the past TWO seasons... slow starts leading to deep runs in March.

The fact remains, no matter how they start, they ALWAYS finish strong. III ALWAYS has the guys fully prepared for the difficult road ahead, and to start freaking out because of a KenPom stat or two is beyond ridiculous.

Of course, overreactions like this have become par for the course the past few years, we should probably be used to it by now...

I feel like this post is more of an overreaction than the first one. I agree completely with everyone else's "reassuring" replies and I do think that the original poster's worries are something that we should only get upset about if we're still rusty ~mid-January, but he really seemed reasonable in the way he asked his questions. He was looking for a thoughtful response and he did get it from most people.

Although I have seen some some people coming out with exaggerated "the sky is falling" -type posts, I have noticed that even MORE people are flaming posters with reasonable questions or concerns. Not every mention of a flaw or negative aspect of our play is an overreaction; people should use reasonable judgment to differentiate between people flipping out and people having concerns... That said, there are a lot of people a lot more vicious about it than buffalohoya ... which is a problem. No wonder the first poster was worried about some vitriol!
I dunno, lighten up y'all

[Coast2CoastHoya]

hoya06 said:

I have been cautiously optimistic about this team since halftime of the Vandy game. That being said, I look at flights to SA on a daily basis.

touche