GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Nov 14, 2007 21:17:47 GMT -5
One site has 18 and the other 15. I'd be hard pressed to pick us with that kind of line. Essentially that tells me they think Michigan is as good as William and Mary. It's possible but it would be tough to put money on that.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Nov 14, 2007 21:19:37 GMT -5
Maybe they see URI beat Brown on the "road" by one less point than UMich did at home. Not saying that I agree with it, just grasping at a straw.
I think the game will be within 15 points too.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,440
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Post by lichoya68 on Nov 14, 2007 23:50:45 GMT -5
NO WAY 15 POINTS NO WAY DIDNOT THEY SAY US OVER WILLIAMS MERRIE BY LIKE 23 AND THAT WAS WRONG WRONG WRONG AND THE GAME WAS MUCH CLOSER THAN WHAT IT ENDED BE READY HOYAS DONT READ THE PAPER JUST LISTEN TO COACH AND DONT FORGET THE BIG GUY YOU KNOW ROY ... THE SEVEN FOOTER PLEASE PLEASE EARLY AND OFTEN YES YES YES EAT THE BANANNA DONT KNOW IF ILL SLEEP TONITE GO HOYAS
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Nov 15, 2007 1:24:28 GMT -5
you never know we struggled against hartford and then smacked vandy around. could happen again.
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SirSaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 747
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Post by SirSaxa on Nov 15, 2007 2:24:33 GMT -5
Could happen, but what was our average margin of victory last year? for a team that plays slow, fewer posessions, a big spread is not a good bet.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Nov 15, 2007 2:38:15 GMT -5
I think that UM has a shot to win, unfortunately that shot won't be from anywhere within 19 feet of the basket.
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Highsmith
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,490
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Post by Highsmith on Nov 15, 2007 6:54:26 GMT -5
I just saw the spread this morning and I had a similar reaction to most. I was expecting a much more competetive game. Of course William & Mary was very competetive until the last 4-5 minutes when we pulled right away. I am feeling good about winning this game, but I don't think I'd be laying down any bets on this one.
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Ro
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 228
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Post by Ro on Nov 15, 2007 8:27:55 GMT -5
There was of course one of the 5 greatest games I've ever witnessed live...our 23 point throttling of Pitt to take the BET last year.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2007 8:52:59 GMT -5
what was our average margin of victory last year? I imagine it was pretty big. I think we had 10 double-digit wins in conference play alone?
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Nov 15, 2007 9:33:21 GMT -5
From the Michigan board: I know thinking a win is going to be very very tough but that seems a bit high to me. If we have a reasonable shooting night we wont get blown off the floor if you ask me. I mean I guess the scenario of Grady and Harris melting exist but I just dont see it. Isnt Georgetown more of a laid back crowd as well? Its been a while since I watched them at home.
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hoyasexy
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Actively engaged in extramarital saxa
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Post by hoyasexy on Nov 15, 2007 9:48:23 GMT -5
One site has 18 and the other 15. I'd be hard pressed to pick us with that kind of line. Essentially that tells me they think Michigan is as good as William and Mary. It's possible but it would be tough to put money on that. I won't pretend to know a whole lot about sports gambling, but doesn't a 3 point difference in spreads create a fantastic arbitrage opportunity? Take Michigan +18 and Georgetown -15 and you can't lose, right?
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TigerHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by TigerHoya on Nov 15, 2007 9:56:53 GMT -5
looks like they're just trying to drive betting on Michigan so they get 50% on each team
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Nov 15, 2007 9:58:02 GMT -5
One site has 18 and the other 15. I'd be hard pressed to pick us with that kind of line. Essentially that tells me they think Michigan is as good as William and Mary. It's possible but it would be tough to put money on that. I won't pretend to know a whole lot about sports gambling, but doesn't a 3 point difference in spreads create a fantastic arbitrage opportunity? Take Michigan +18 and Georgetown -15 and you can't lose, right? Fantastic isn't exactly the word I'd used. Basically you're betting on the chance that the score lies in the overlapping band times the amount of the bet net of fees. I think I'm explaining that right. Better than nothing.
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hoyasexy
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Actively engaged in extramarital saxa
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Post by hoyasexy on Nov 15, 2007 10:05:43 GMT -5
Yes, but for a riskless proposition, a 4 point window of profit possibility is considerable. If you can get that kind of window for every game, you'd make a fortune.
However, you may have answered my underlying question when you reference fees. Pure arbitrage opportunities only exist in the absence of transaction costs, so if there are fees, the strategy is not without risk.
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rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,595
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Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 15, 2007 10:34:55 GMT -5
Could happen, but what was our average margin of victory last year? for a team that plays slow, fewer posessions, a big spread is not a good bet. Happy to oblige you. Whenever we won last year, we won big. Recall that the Louisville game in February (the day that Crum Court was officially dedicated) was Gtown's first single-digit win of the season. In regular-season games in which the Hoyas emerged victorious in 2006-07, the margin of victory was Overall- 17+ ppg Nonconf- 21+ ppg Home- 19+ ppg NC Home- 23+ ppg As for the present matter, all Grabby needs to do tonight in order to satisfy the Blue faithful is lose by 14 points.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,440
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Post by lichoya68 on Nov 15, 2007 10:59:23 GMT -5
what is that freking comment about georgetown and its laid back crowd COME OUT NOISY HOYAS AND BLUE AND STUDS COME OUT NOISY EVEN THE ALUMS GOTTA REACT TO THAT ONE AND AS FOR THE POINT SPREAD CONFUSES ME JUST WIN AT LEAST BY ONE OK??? ;D
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Post by HoyaDestroya02 on Nov 15, 2007 11:16:12 GMT -5
i am seeing 14.5 now... so it's getting better. i think 12-14 is probably right.
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hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
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Post by hifigator on Nov 15, 2007 15:06:19 GMT -5
I already told you all the final score was going to be 74-59. That is 15 points. So if you can get 14.5, then you are golden.
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Jack on Nov 15, 2007 21:16:02 GMT -5
Spread seems pretty reasonable to me.
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Highsmith
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,490
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Post by Highsmith on Nov 16, 2007 7:04:41 GMT -5
Boy, who came up with that spread anyways.....they were way off!!! It should have been at least 20!! ;D I guess if most of us have to be wrong about something, this isn't a bad way for it to happen!!
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